Poland will propose a maritime policing programme in the Baltic Sea, modeled after NATO’s air surveillance missions, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on Wednesday.

In a statement from Warsaw, Tusk described the plan as a “joint initiative of Baltic Sea countries” that share concerns over threats from Russia.

Tusk is set to attend a Baltic summit of Nordic and Baltic leaders in Sweden, where discussions will focus on regional security, transatlantic relations, and European support for Ukraine.

Baltic and Nordic leaders meet amid growing geopolitical tensions

The summit in Harpsund comes at a pivotal time, as Nordic and Baltic countries face increasing uncertainty. Last week, a high-speed fiber-optic cable connecting Finland and Germany was severed, and a key link between Lithuania and Sweden was also damaged, raising concerns about potential external interference.

Prime ministers from the Baltic and Nordic nations, along with Poland’s Donald Tusk, accepted an invitation from Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to discuss geopolitical challenges ahead of Donald Trump’s second presidential term.

“We will discuss the defense of Ukraine, our own countries, and a shared security strategy in an increasingly uncertain world,” Kristersson stated in a recorded speech last week.

Europe urged to strengthen security autonomy

At the summit, Kristersson highlighted Europe’s need for greater security autonomy. “When the wind is blowing hard in the world, it’s crucial to stay open-minded and well-prepared,” he said during a press conference on Tuesday (26 November).

Kristersson revealed that during his recent meeting with Trump, they discussed European security, particularly support for Ukraine and mutual cooperation. He emphasized that Italy, the UK, France, and Germany all agree on the importance of Europe assuming more responsibility for its security.

“The United States cannot be expected to cover European NATO defence costs in the long term,” Kristersson added.

Submarine communications cable sabotage suspected

The summit is particularly timely following last week’s damage to two undersea cables—one connecting Finland and Germany and another linking Sweden and Lithuania in the Baltic Sea. Both incidents occurred in Sweden’s exclusive economic zone, sparking regional security concerns.

Media reports suggest the damage may have been caused by a Chinese cargo ship, the Yi Peng 3, which is now under the surveillance of the Danish navy in the Kattegat Strait.

In response, Finland and Sweden announced plans to form a joint investigation team, and Swedish prosecutors launched a preliminary probe into potential sabotage. However, Swedish officials remain cautious, with Kristersson stating, “We are not making accusations or conducting a criminal investigation at this stage.”

The Swedish government has contacted Chinese authorities regarding the ship and expressed willingness to allow the vessel into Swedish waters for further investigation.

Despite the assassination of senior Hezbollah leaders and the bombing in violation of the laws of war, Israel has failed to achieve its main objectives on the Lebanese front. Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel have not been prevented, nor have the residents of the north returned to their homes. Israel’s tactical successes on the ground were insufficient to achieve its strategic goals, forcing it to agree to a ceasefire.

Ahead of the ceasefire announcement between Israel and Hezbollah, which is expected within hours, both parties have escalated their attacks. Opposition to the ceasefire from Israel’s far-right ministers has raised concerns that the agreement could be cancelled at the last minute.

The ceasefire agreement is anticipated to be announced by the U.S. and France today, according to several news agencies citing Lebanese, U.S., and Israeli officials. Both the Israeli and Lebanese governments are scheduled to meet beforehand to discuss the terms of the ceasefire.

The Lebanese Health Ministry reported that at least twenty-two people were killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon yesterday. Early this morning, Israel bombed southern Lebanon and targeted buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut, claiming to have killed a senior Hezbollah commander.

Hezbollah has also intensified its attacks on Israel’s northern regions. Educational activities in some areas have been suspended, and authorities announced new measures in response to the ongoing assaults.

Despite positive signals from Lebanon and the U.S., internal opposition within Israel suggests the ceasefire agreement could face last-minute hurdles. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir described the deal as a “big mistake” and a “historic missed opportunity to eliminate Hezbollah.” Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich commented, “There is no agreement, and if it is signed, it will be worth no more than a signed piece of paper. We have dismantled Hezbollah and will continue to dismantle it.”

Criticism is not limited to far-right ministers. Members of parliament from Netanyahu’s Likud party, opposition leaders, and northern Israeli mayors have also voiced disapproval. Avi Dichter, a Likud party member and security cabinet member, stated on social media that he lacked sufficient details to support the ceasefire, adding that he would oppose it if it mirrored UNSC Resolution 1701.

David Azoulay, mayor of Metula, referred to the ceasefire as a “surrender deal” during an interview on Channel 12 television. Avichai Stern, mayor of Kiryat Shmona, criticized the agreement on social media, warning that it “accelerates the repetition of the 7 October attack in the north.” Stern remarked, “I don’t understand how we went from total victory to total surrender.”

Benny Gantz, leader of the opposition National Unity Party, urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to publish the full details of the agreement. Similarly, Avigdor Liberman, leader of the Israel Our Home party, labeled the deal as “terrible for Israel.”

The proposed ceasefire includes: Israel will withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon within days. Beirut will deploy troops along the border, and Hezbollah fighters will retreat north of the Litani River and a U.S.-led committee will oversee the ceasefire’s implementation.

The main sticking point remains Israel’s claimed “right to self-defense.” Prime Minister Netanyahu insisted the agreement guarantee Israel’s freedom to act against Lebanon if the ceasefire is not upheld. Lebanon has firmly rejected this demand.

According to The National, a compromise formula has been proposed to address this issue: Israel would present grievances to the international committee monitoring the ceasefire, which would then relay them to the Lebanese army and UNIFIL. A deadline would be set for addressing these grievances before Israel could take further action. This proposal is still under discussion.

Notably, the agreement does not establish a buffer zone, a key objective of Israel’s ground offensive. The buffer zone was intended to keep northern Israel out of Hezbollah’s reach. Additionally, there is no clear plan for the tens of thousands of residents who fled their homes in northern Israel after 7 October.

Despite Israel’s tactical successes, including the assassination of Hezbollah leaders and the ground invasion, it has not achieved its primary war aims in Lebanon. U.S. President Donald Trump, set to take office in January, has urged Netanyahu to conclude the conflict before his inauguration. Meanwhile, the Israeli army’s morale is reportedly low due to heavy casualties and ongoing debates over conscription. Observers note that the military’s reluctance to continue fighting further complicates Israel’s strategic position.

The Israeli press has reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has authorized a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

According to Israeli state television KAN, the Tel Aviv government has given the green light for a ceasefire to Amos Hochstein, a senior adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden, who has been mediating between Israel and Hezbollah. The report noted that Netanyahu and senior ministers held a security consultation meeting last night, during which Netanyahu approved the proposal for a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon.

Discussions reportedly centered on ensuring the freedom of movement for the Israeli army along the Syrian-Lebanese border. Israel has also received assurances from the U.S. regarding its ability to act if the agreement is violated. Unnamed Israeli sources have stated that a ceasefire announcement is expected “within two days.”

The sources further disclosed that the agreement with Lebanon has already been signed, and that Netanyahu is now focused on strategizing its announcement.

However, Michael Herzog, Israel’s ambassador to Washington, told Israel Army Radio that while progress has been made, some details of the agreement remain unresolved.

According to a report in Haaretz, the U.S.-proposed ceasefire involves a three-stage plan: an immediate ceasefire, followed by a withdrawal of Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River, an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and the initiation of negotiations between Israel and Lebanon to address disputed border areas.

A U.S.-led international body will oversee the ceasefire’s implementation. Additionally, Israel expects a formal letter from Washington confirming its right to take military action if Hezbollah violates the ceasefire terms and the Lebanese army or international forces fail to act.

Regarding the public framing of the agreement, KAN reported that Netanyahu intends to present the ceasefire as a strategic victory for Israel, rather than a compromise.

Meanwhile, several Israeli media outlets have indicated that Amos Hochstein has communicated to Israel that he may withdraw from the mediation process if there is no positive response to the U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal in the coming days. Netanyahu’s office informed Channel 13 that it had received Hochstein’s message but was uncertain whether it reflected an official U.S. position or an attempt to apply pressure on Israel and Lebanon.