The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU), leading in opinion polls ahead of Germany’s upcoming elections on 23 February, have proposed significant changes to social benefits. This includes plans to reduce welfare aid for Ukrainian refugees and address Germany’s 5.5 million long-term unemployed by implementing stricter employment measures.

One controversial proposal involves limiting unemployment benefits for Ukrainian refugees. The CDU/CSU is questioning whether Ukrainians should continue receiving the standard unemployment benefit (‘Bürgergeld’), which is higher than the refugee-specific benefits.

Under an EU Council Directive on temporary protection for displaced persons, Ukrainian refugees arriving in Germany after the outbreak of the war were granted temporary residence status and entitled to full social benefits. This includes up to 563 euros per month in unemployment benefits, coverage for rent and heating costs, and additional allowances for children, depending on their age. Currently, Germany is hosting 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees, including 530,000 work-eligible individuals and approximately 360,000 children.

Stephan Stracke, the CDU/CSU’s social policy spokesman, emphasized that while Germany must provide protection to those fleeing “war and violence”, this does not equate to granting them benefits equal to those of German citizens. Stracke proposed that newly arrived Ukrainian refugees should instead receive standard asylum seeker benefits, which amount to 460 euros per month.

This policy shift aligns with broader plans by the CDU to overhaul the welfare system, including introducing tougher sanctions for individuals who refuse to work and increasing mandatory engagements with authorities.

Germany faces challenges in integrating Ukrainian refugees into its labor market, especially when compared to other European countries. A study by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) revealed that as of March 2023, only 27% of Ukrainians in Germany had secured employment. In contrast, 57% of Ukrainian refugees in Lithuania and 53% in Denmark have found jobs.

Stracke argued that the generous benefits offered in Germany might deter some refugees from seeking employment. He added, “Other European countries are doing much better. That’s why Germany needs to emphasize the principle of ‘support and demand’, encouraging more refugees to enter the workforce.”

The CDU’s stance on refugee welfare reflects a longstanding conservative policy approach. In 2022, CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is widely expected to lead Germany’s next government, sparked debate by referring to “social tourism” among Ukrainian refugees. He claimed that some refugees were traveling between Germany and Ukraine to access benefits.

The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) has similarly argued that high welfare payouts contribute to the growing number of refugees reliant on state aid.

Handelsblatt, one of Germany’s leading business newspapers, recently surveyed business leaders and readers on their views regarding a potential AfD-CDU coalition.

The discussion gained momentum after Christian Reber, a prominent start-up entrepreneur, publicly urged the CDU to consider a coalition with the AfD “under certain conditions.”

“Be open to a coalition with the AfD, provided that no explicitly right-wing extremist party member holds political responsibility,” Reber wrote in a post to CDU leader Friedrich Merz on X (formerly Twitter) two weeks ago. Reber further emphasized the need for a “German, citizen-oriented, and European policy” through cooperation with the AfD.

Reber, who sold his online start-up Wunderlist to Microsoft for a significant sum in 2015, sparked wider debate among German entrepreneurs and political observers.

Christian Miele, a member of the renowned Gütersloh-based Miele family and former chairman of a business start-up association, also criticized the CDU’s “firewall” against the AfD.

“The AfD is my opponent and must not be allowed to assume government responsibility,” Miele told the Süddeutsche Zeitung. He added that he strongly opposes the party but believes the phenomenon warrants more open discussion.

Miele warned of another “four years of lazy compromises” if the status quo persists, suggesting that the AfD could emerge as Germany’s leading party in the 2029 elections.

Frank Thelen, an investor widely recognized from the TV start-up show Die Höhle der Löwen, echoed these concerns, stating, “Nobody wants a strong AfD, but at the moment, the electorate may leave us no choice but to bring their democratic voices together in a functioning government.”

Readers weigh in: Mixed reactions to an AfD-CDU coalition

Handelsblatt readers offered a range of opinions on the matter, with many voicing cautious support for collaboration.

One reader remarked that the AfD is a “democratically elected party” and that ignoring the will of approximately 20% of German voters is inherently undemocratic. Another commented, “In a democracy, the voice of the citizens must be heard. Democracy must withstand different currents.”

“The CDU’s firewall against the AfD defeats the purpose of democracy,” a reader asserted, summarizing a sentiment shared by others.

Some readers suggested that an AfD-CDU coalition could serve as a litmus test. “A coalition in Brandenburg would have shown whether fears about the AfD as a governing partner were justified or unfounded,” noted one commentator.

However, others expressed strong opposition. Referring to Germany’s history, one reader warned against collaboration with a party that “sympathizes with the dictatorships of this world.” Another dismissed the idea on principle, stating that a coalition with an “unpredictable party” like the AfD would be “a risky balancing act,” particularly in the wake of uncertainty caused by the current traffic light coalition.

Authorities in Germany are preparing to convert underground stations and other public buildings into bomb shelters, citing the growing risk of war with Russia.

According to Bild newspaper, the Federal Office for Civil Protection is actively researching public spaces that could be repurposed as shelters. The agency also plans to launch an app to help residents locate nearby shelters during emergencies.

The German public will be encouraged to build private shelters in their homes, particularly in basements. This shift comes after Germany reduced its public shelter network in 2007, when authorities deemed it unnecessary.

Currently, Germany—a country with a population of 84.4 million people—has only 579 public shelters, capable of accommodating just 500,000 individuals.

Ralph Tiesler, head of the Federal Office for Civil Protection, emphasized the urgency of the situation, warning that it could take years to rebuild a robust network of shelters. He called for faster solutions to address potential threats.

To expedite preparations, authorities have begun compiling a comprehensive list of potential shelter sites, including underground stations, offices, and other public buildings. In addition, they are developing a civil protection app with a live map showing the nearest available shelters. A public awareness campaign is also being planned to educate citizens on self-protection measures.

The opposition Christian Democrats (CDU) criticized the government’s preparedness for Russian air strikes, urging an immediate increase in shelter capacity. CDU MP Andrea Lindholz stated, “Although we hope that such a situation will not arise, we must be prepared to protect the population in an emergency. We need to significantly increase shelter capacity in Germany.”

Lindholz pointed to Poland as a proactive example. Starting in 2026, Poland will require all new buildings to include access to emergency shelters. The country has also identified temporary shelters such as underground stations and tunnels to protect its entire population.

For comparison, the British research organization Subterranea Britannica reports that the United Kingdom has 276 bunkers designed to safeguard the population during a nuclear attack.