Opinion
America’s year of withdrawal: How did Trump’s first year go?
Throughout 2025, the entire world watched the US with bated breath, so to speak. Taking office far more independent of the establishment and national norms compared to his first term, every appearance Trump made on screen signaled a potential scandal, or even the start of a crisis where diplomatic standoffs could escalate into violence.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa was lured into what he thought was a routine meeting with the American President, only to be forced to watch a short film about the alleged persecution of white people in his country. In the same room, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy received a lengthy dressing down from J.D. Vance and Trump, and had to jump through hoops just to avoid losing American war support entirely. From then on, every leader visiting the White House would arrive contemplating the possibility of a similar disaster, unable to act at ease. This was exactly the message Trump—who wanted to restart almost all diplomatic relations from scratch—intended to send. The old US was gone.
Every standoff by Trump created the perception that “war is starting now!” yet war never actually began. When nuclear enrichment facilities in Iran were struck, the Israeli side was over the moon, believing their desires for regime change in Iran would finally materialize. However, after the attack, Trump chose to say, “this matter is closed here.” A similar scene unfolded during the Venezuela crisis. Attacks on boats and threats flying through the air suggested war was imminent, yet the button was never pushed. Even relations with Russia remained at this level. Deadlines refreshed throughout the year and threats like “If Putin doesn’t accept in 60 days, I’ll give Tomahawks to Ukraine!” never turned into reality.
By now, the pattern of this carrot-and-stick strategy was recognized by everyone.
An unsatisfactory balance sheet
Trump’s domestic policy performance, however, is controversial. The Trump administration announced that in 2025, it deported 605,000 illegal immigrants, while a total of 1.9 million immigrants left the country voluntarily. Considering Trump’s target of “deporting 1 million immigrants” a year, this must be pleasing for Trump supporters. By comparison, Obama’s highest annual deportation was 438,000, and Biden’s was 271,000. In short, by sending away a total of 2.5 million immigrants, Trump more than kept his promise.
Another of Trump’s domestic policy promises was the fight against liberal identity politics, or “Wokeism.” Gender and race quotas introduced during the Biden era in all state institutions, primarily the military, were abolished, and pressure was applied to the private sector on this issue. Considering the perceived decline of “woke” influence in the media, Trump can take partial credit here. Of course, the conservatives’ goal is to completely eradicate the woke influence by 2028. Given that Democrats still embrace woke ideology, time will tell how realistic this goal is.
Although not strictly Trump’s promise, cutting government spending became government policy, partly due to Elon Musk’s influence. After the establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Musk began meddling in every aspect of the state, causing a backlash in other government ministries. Still, DOGE announced savings of $214 billion by cutting spending. There was just one problem; in 2025, the US debt increased by exactly $2.23 trillion. The passing of the new budget containing tax cuts, which Trump called the “big beautiful bill,” played a major role in this. This budget was also the cause of the split between the two men.
The economy is a mixed bag. Although growth figures recovered in the second half of the year, the American public does not feel economically secure. Just like in Biden’s final term, Americans’ complaints about purchasing power are significant. While unemployment approaches 2021 pandemic levels, the global tariffs introduced by Trump rendered inflation-curbing policies ineffective. When announcing these tariffs, Trump claimed they would bring many jobs back with companies returning to the country. Even if true, this is a policy that pays off in the long run.
In addition to all this, the longest government shutdown in American history occurred. The 43-day shutdown was related to the imminent expiration of the healthcare law passed during the Obama era.
What does the public say?
As predicted, Trump’s approval rating in the general public is low. 60% of Americans currently disapprove of Trump. In the economy, the area where he is criticized most, he receives only 33% support; 37% in foreign policy, and 51% in fighting crime. There is still sympathy for Trump among Americans regarding immigration and crime. The fact that Democrats canceled the “autopsy report”—intended to reveal what they did wrong in 2024—after starting to get good results in local politics shows they will persist with the same policies. Naturally, this increases Trump’s credit among Americans who care about the immigration issue.
There is a growing civil war, perhaps not within the party, but in the eyes of the public. This civil war at the heart of American political debate has pitted “America First” conservatives against “Israel First” conservatives. In the conservative sphere, where support for Israel was previously an indisputable norm, many opinion leaders are now criticizing Israel more loudly. Platform owners are subjected to heavy pressure from lobby groups demanding these criticisms be silenced. This brawl has not yet fully spread from the public to politicians. A few dissenting voices in Congress were quickly silenced. However, this oppositional stance, especially among the youth, cannot be contained. Figures like Nick Fuentes, who use rhetoric bordering on the far-right and fascism on many points, are gaining significant influence over young conservatives.
What to expect from 2026?
2026 will be an election year in the US. A period is approaching where Trump has established the framework of the policies he wants to install in both domestic and foreign policy and expects to see results. This means new areas of interest in American foreign policy will heat up. I am talking about Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and of course, the EU. Policies may come to the agenda to dismantle the EU, which is identified as a threat to both the US and Europe in Trump’s strategy text. Additionally, conflict may re-emerge in old spheres of influence like the Middle East, which Trump expects to be closed off by now. Between Israel’s demands on Lebanon and Iran, and the deadlock in Syria, we will understand in 2026 to what extent the US will close the Middle East chapter.
In domestic politics, there will be quite a ruckus. Trump has been plagued by the Epstein case for some time. The more he covers it up, the more documents emerge from the congressional committee. Not only opposition Democrats but also Trump’s own voters are curious about the background of the Epstein issue. Clearly, we will hear a lot about the Epstein topic in 2026 as well.
Judging by the polls, it seems likely Republicans will lose the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. If undisputed control in Congress is lost, Trump’s radical stance in the administration will change accordingly.
The Ukraine War, as the Trump administration has repeatedly stated, does not form the basis of their policies. Trump said he would walk away from the table if he failed to bring peace. So, a return to the Biden-era armament policy does not seem likely.
As I said at the beginning, Trump’s foreign policy strategies are now understood by world public opinion. I am not sure how much longer his bluffs can be successful. Eventually, Trump may resort to violence to achieve the radical changes he wants. Violence is currently escalating piece by piece in Venezuela. If covert operations and airstrikes do not yield benefits, they might even attempt a military operation. Moreover, Colombia and even Mexico are waiting in the wings. The US success in Venezuela will determine the fate of the others.
2025 was the year of “Strategic Retreat” for American foreign policy. Instead of spreading across the whole world, the US chooses to concentrate its power in specific regions. 2026 will be the year they expect this concentration to bear fruit.
Finally, there is a question everyone in the US is wondering about; what will happen to MAGA after Trump? Even if we don’t get the answer in 2026, we will get various clues. Many figures are preparing for the post-Trump era. We will see if the Republican Party will cozy up to the establishment again or if MAGA will continue to chart its own path. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was previously thought to be the heir apparent but faded away after the midterms, is trying to raise his head again. Texas Senator Ted Cruz, a favorite figure of the establishment, will clearly emerge as a rival to J.D. Vance. Unless, of course, Trump stubbornly starts preparing for a third term in 2028! Happy New Year to everyone.
Opinion
India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships
Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.
India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.
Today, India’s achievements extend beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.
India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.
India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.
The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.
Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.
India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.
These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.
To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.
India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.
The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.
In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.
Opinion
Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa
In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.
History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.
Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.
Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.
AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS
Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.
Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.
In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”
China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.
THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY
It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.
The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.
The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.
Opinion
The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues
BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.
Allan Wilson, Journalist
Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.
“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”
Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.
For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.
The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.
“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.
A statue, a warning
The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.
The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.
For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”
Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.
The shrinking window
Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.
This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.
Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.
A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.
The international dimension
The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”
Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.
For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.
“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.
This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.
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