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How did 2025 unfold for Venezuela and Latin America?

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For Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as for other regions of the world, the year 2025 meant being under the constant and intensified scrutiny of the United States government. However, even though the White House’s trade war, characterized by arbitrary tariffs, primarily targeted countries with which the United States had a trade deficit (China, Canada, Germany, Japan, Ireland), Latin America has been the main focus of the deployment of the “New Monroe Doctrine.” And, within this region, Venezuela has been the country that, on the one hand, has suffered the most from it, and on the other hand, has confronted it with the greatest resistance, determination, and courage.

If 2024 ended with the certainty that Donald Trump’s third presidency would represent a scenario of direct confrontation with Venezuela, 2025 culminates with the realization that a good portion of the predictions regarding the aggressions that the Republican administration in the White House would apply against the Caribbean country materialized. But not even the most audacious could have imagined that Trump would invent a nonexistent armed conflict with Venezuela to advance his attempt to subdue the government of Nicolás Maduro and seize Venezuelan oil. It is worth clarifying that we say it is a nonexistent conflict because Venezuela does not threaten US territory or the political stability of the US government. This idea, widely disseminated and largely consolidated, is only one part of the narrative that has been constructed since President Hugo Chávez arrived at Miraflores Palace in 1999.

Despite the extraordinary nature of the US aggression against Venezuela, as we know, it is not the only Latin American country that, in 2025, has suffered the “Trump Corollary” to US imperialism and the rise of the extreme right. Let us, then, review how the rest of the region has been affected in political, economic, social, environmental, cultural, and military terms.

Brazil: For the first time since its creation in 1992, the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP) was held in the Amazon region, one of the planet’s most important lungs. The 30th COP took place in Belém do Pará, where funding to address the effects of the climate crisis was tripled, but a concrete roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels was not agreed upon. This lack of commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, despite reaffirming the Paris Agreement and seeing progress in the new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), drew criticism. COP 31 will be held in Antalya, Turkey, which will share the presidency with Australia.

On the political and judicial front, 2025 was the year that saw the conviction and imprisonment of former far-right conservative president Jair Bolsonaro for his role in the attempted coup d’état of January 8, 2023, in Brasília. This unprecedented event in Brazilian political history, which targeted Congress, the Presidential Palace, and the Supreme Court, tested democracy and the functioning of the separation of powers in the South American giant. Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years and three months by the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Brazil’s highest court, becoming the first former president found guilty of leading a coup. Trump unsuccessfully attempted to support Bolsonaro by imposing sanctions and tariffs on some key Brazilian exports (coffee, meat, fruit, etc.). However, a few months later, due to the price increases of these products in the US domestic market, the US president was forced to remove those tariffs.

México: The first female president in the history of this country, Claudia Sheinbaum, demonstrated her political leadership with very positive results in 2025. As one of the United States’ main trading partners, when Trump took office on January 10th of this year, Mexico topped the list of supposed enemies of U.S. economic, social, territorial, and national security stability. Trump accused Mexico of “not doing enough in the fight against drug trafficking,” thus justifying a 30% tariff on all Mexican exports. He also designated six Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, including the Sinaloa Cartel and the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. Sheinbaum responded with concrete actions: dozens of suspected drug traffickers were extradited to the United States. Furthermore, the Mexican president explained to her North American counterpart and neighbor why the tariffs would harm the US economy, and, as happened with other countries, Trump had to back down.

In the middle of the year, Mexico implemented a historic reform by holding its first-ever elections to choose judges and magistrates through popular vote. This judicial election, which renewed more than 2,600 positions nationwide, was made possible by the constitutional reform approved in 2014 during the administration of López Obrador (AMLO). The 2015 judicial reform established that all judges must be elected by popular vote; it also reduced the number of Supreme Court justices from 11 to 9; and replaced the Federal Judiciary Council with the Judicial Administration Body and the Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal. The objective of this initiative is to combat corruption and nepotism, increase transparency, and bring the judiciary closer to the Mexican people.

Sheinbaum faced a variety of challenges, among them, one of the most internationally impactful was the protests by the so-called “Generation Z” (people under 30), which gained momentum after the assassination of a mayor in the state of Michoacán. These protesters used the so-called “War on Drugs” to attack the government and the MORENA party. However, the Mexican president has been clear in stating that the war on drugs, besides being illegal, has not solved the problem but has worsened it, and that extrajudicial killings are not an option in her administration. In this sense, Sheinbaum continues the path of the Fourth Transformation, initiated by AMLO, with which she is building her own political hegemony.

In 2025, Mexico and Brazil were the main drivers of poverty reduction in Latin America. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean’s (ECLAC 2025) annual report revealed that thanks to increases in the minimum wage, government transfers to social welfare programs, and the economic recovery of these two countries, which together represent more than half of Latin America’s total population, poverty in the region decreased for the first time since ECLAC began conducting these studies. Mexico contributed 60% and 49% to the overall reduction in poverty and extreme poverty, respectively. Brazil also contributed significantly, accounting for 30% of the reduction in overall poverty and 31% of the reduction in extreme poverty.

Argentina: The second year of Javier Milei’s administration was marked primarily by a corruption scandal within his government. This included, on the one hand, the “$Libra” cryptocurrency scam, promoted by Milei through his X account, for which he faces a fraud investigation in the United States; and on the other hand, the bribes his sister, Karina Milei, solicited from public institutions amidst drastic cuts in public spending. By 2025, the most vulnerable sectors of Argentine society had suffered the consequences of the Milei model, fueled by low inflation due to weak demand, which in turn led to decreased production, business closures, and layoffs. These workers now lack access to social programs and policies to support them.

The progressive political field saw Cristina Fernández convicted of corruption and politically disqualified for six years. Fernández, who is under house arrest and remains key in building an alternative to Milei’s government, has lost political power. In this context, the governor of Buenos Aires, Alex Kicillof, Cristina Fernández’s former economy minister, consolidated his national profile with an eye toward the 2027 presidential elections after winning the legislative elections in the most important province in electoral terms, where he secured a 14% lead over Milei.

Milei, for his part, received full political and partial economic support from the Trump Administration, which allowed him to win the national legislative elections despite the governmental crisis facing his administration.

Presidential elections in 2025: Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Honduras

Ecuador: In the most violent year in Ecuador’s history, right-wing politician Daniel Noboa was re-elected president with 55% of the vote in a runoff election held in April, amid serious allegations of electoral fraud. However, in November, the majority of Ecuadorians rejected the president’s agenda in the Constitutional Referendum and Popular Consultation. The Ecuadorian president sought popular support to convene a Constituent Assembly; to establish foreign military bases in Ecuador; to eliminate state funding for political parties; and to reduce the number of legislators in the National Assembly. These proposals were rejected with 61.58% of the vote.

While Uruguay, under the leadership of Yamandú Orsi of the Frente Amplio, witnessed the return of the left to power, the opposite occurred in one of the Andean nation. Bolivia held presidential (and parliamentary) elections this year, marking the end of a political era that began in 2006 with the election of its first indigenous president, Evo Morales, now a political target and adversary of his former supporters. Evo remains entrenched and seemingly untouchable in the Chapare, a coca-growing region in the department of Cochabamba. On October 20, in the second round, Rodrigo Paz was declared the winner with 54% of the vote. On November 8, upon assuming the presidency, Paz, whose main slogans have been “Capitalism for all” and “Bolivia to the world and the world to Bolivia,” quickly moved to eliminate fuel subsidies and seek to restore foreign relations with the United States and Israel.

On December 24, the National Electoral Council (CNE) of Honduras declared Nasry Asfura the new Honduran president. The decision came almost a month after the elections and with more than 300 of the nearly 2,800 electoral tally sheets showing inconsistencies, in an electoral process rife with fraud allegations from various parties (both left and right) that participated in the contest. Asfura, a conservative and right-wing politician from the National Party, was the candidate supported by Donald Trump, who, upon seeing the delay in releasing the results, did not hesitate to say, “It seems that Honduras is trying to alter the results; if they do, there will be a scandal.”

Chile also closed out 2025 with the return of the right wing. José Antonio Kast won, with 58% of the vote to 42%, in the second round against the Communist Party candidate, Jeannette Jara. Kast, whose father was a member of the Nazi Party in Germany and who has supported the Pinochet dictatorship, will take office in March 2026. Kast’s arrival will implement an emergency administration, representing the biggest shift to the right since the return of democracy in Chile in 1990.

Venezuela: The country most besieged by the US in 2025

Even during his presidential campaign, Venezuela was among the top priorities on Trump’s foreign policy agenda. Therefore, upon assuming his third presidency on January 15, 2015, the US president launched a full-scale attack against the Venezuelan government. Trump has tried everything to undermine the democratic order in Venezuela and install a president subservient to the White House, in order to seize Venezuelan oil.

Openly calling for global mercenaries, the United States government increased the reward for the capture (read: assassination) of President Nicolás Maduro, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López. Meanwhile, Caracas received President Trump’s Special Envoy, Richard Grenell. These seemingly contradictory moves demonstrate the negotiator’s interest in first threatening to test the limits of what he can do. But negotiating with Venezuela is not a zero-sum game.

In another attempt to strangle the Venezuelan economy, Trump announced the termination of Chevron’s license to import Venezuelan oil and its derivatives. At the time, Chevron was the only U.S. oil company authorized to operate in Venezuela, despite the more than 1,000 unilateral coercive measures (sanctions) arbitrarily imposed on Venezuela. The U.S. oil company will continue operating in Venezuela until the end of 2025.

To dispel any remaining doubts that Trump has absolutely no interest in Venezuelan democracy or citizenship, the White House occupant invoked the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which grants the president the authority to identify and expel undocumented immigrants (although Trump has used this law to persecute and deport even immigrants with legal or pending residency). The Venezuelans were labeled as members of the “Tren de Aragua” gang and taken by the hundreds to a high-security prison in El Salvador: CECOT.

Furthermore, in an unprecedented act of war that put Latin America and the world on high alert, Trump deployed warships to the Caribbean, off the coast of Venezuela. To do so, he first had to designate the “Cartel of the Suns” as a terrorist organization, a designation that provided the White House with the legal framework to launch targeted military operations without congressional approval. Violating international law, Trump extrajudicially executed dozens of people by carrying out kinetic attacks in Caribbean waters near Colombia, Venezuela, and Trinidad and Tobago.

Finally, to further escalate tensions, in early December, Trump ordered a total and complete blockade of all oil tankers, sanctioned or not, entering or leaving Venezuela. The US president proudly declared: “Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest armada ever assembled in the history of South America. It will only get bigger, and the impact on them will be unprecedented, until they return to the United States of America all the oil, land, and other assets they previously stole from us.”

A few days later, the United States seized two oil tankers flying different flags, allegedly belonging to Iran and China, loaded with Venezuelan crude. In an act of piracy according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the US president ordered the arrest of the crews of these vessels, as well as the seizure of the ships and their cargoes. Currently, the US Coast Guard continues to monitor oil tankers it believes may be carrying Venezuelan oil, and a third seizure -characterized by the Venezuelan government as theft- of a third oil tanker, this time flying the Panamanian flag, has reportedly occurred.

This entire situation has logically resulted in an increase in military spending in the Latin American and Caribbean region, which, faced with the real threat of armed conflict, is preparing to defend its borders. Although official figures will be released in 2026, Brazil and Mexico are expected to top the list, but Colombia, Panama, Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana, Ecuador, Peru, the Dominican Republic, and even Argentina, somewhat further from the Caribbean, have also invested in defense.

Final thoughts

As a conclusion to this exhaustive analysis of the regional panorama in 2025, we can determine that Latin America and the Caribbean are at a historical crossroads where the anachronistic pretensions of a declining power collide with the reality of a new multipolar world order.

With his actions in Latin America, and despite his rhetoric as a “great negotiator,” 2025 confirms Trump as a decidedly warmongering, not pacifist, president. In fact, his administration has failed to pacify any international conflict; on the contrary, it has fabricated threats and escalated tensions through naval blockades, acts of piracy that border on international illegality, and the irrational imposition of tariffs on key trading partners.

Speaking of warmongers, paradoxically and symbolically, the Norwegian Nobel Committee decided to award the Nobel Peace Prize to María Corina Machado, the far-right leader who has called for military intervention and increased sanctions against Venezuela. This is further evidence that the Venezuelan right wing is to the right of Trump’s political views.

The 2025 assessment makes it clear that the Trump administration attempted to resurrect the old Monroe Doctrine under a veneer of economic and military aggression. However, concrete results have demonstrated that this doctrine has no place in the 21st century. Washington’s attempt to treat the region as its “backyard” clashes head-on with this reality: Venezuela, far from being isolated, has enjoyed the strategic, economic, and diplomatic support of powers like Russia and China, whose presence in the region acts as a necessary counterweight, neutralizing US ambitions for hegemonic control.

With his actions in Latin America, and despite his rhetoric as a “great negotiator,” 2025 confirms Trump as a decidedly warmongering, not pacifist, president. In fact, his administration has failed to pacify any international conflict; on the contrary, it has fabricated threats and escalated tensions through naval blockades, acts of piracy that border on international illegality, and the irrational imposition of tariffs on key trading partners.

Speaking of warmongers, paradoxically and symbolically, the Norwegian Nobel Committee decided to award the Nobel Peace Prize to María Corina Machado, the far-right leader who has called for military intervention and increased sanctions against Venezuela. This is further evidence that the Venezuelan right wing is to the right of Trump’s political views.

While it is true that the rise of the far right in countries like Chile, Bolivia, and Ecuador seems to strengthen Washington’s axis, Mexico’s solid leadership under Claudia Sheinbaum and Brazil’s stability demonstrate that Latin American sovereignty has deep roots. Venezuela’s resistance to the fiercest siege in its history is not only an act of national survival but also the epicenter of a struggle for regional self-determination, sovereignty, and independence from imperialist yokes.

Ultimately, 2025 closes with a resounding lesson for Washington: the natural resources and sovereignty of the Latin American and Caribbean peoples, who have chosen not to submit to foreign powers, can no longer be seized through obsolete 19th-century doctrines. In the case of Venezuela, the alliance with the Eurasian bloc and the strength of Venezuelan institutions have turned the “Trump Corollary” into a “paper tiger.” A free and independent Latin America already moves and lives in a multipolar world.

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A voice rising from New Delhi: BRICS’s manifesto for a new world order

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The BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, held in the Indian capital of New Delhi on May 15, 2026, carries a significance that extends far beyond the confines of routine diplomacy. This gathering culminated in the signing of one of the most comprehensive political documents to date, outlining the vision of the world order that BRICS envisions for 2026. Reading between the lines, the document reveals not merely the proceedings of a ministerial summit, but the contours of a comprehensive alternative vision challenging the Western-centric international system. Indeed, this text must be read as a political manifesto of the shifting balances of power, the accelerating global struggle for influence, and the emerging new world order of recent years.

The overarching theme dominating the entire document is “The Rise of the Global South.” BRICS members contend that the current international order is unjust, insufficiently representative, and fails to reflect the interests of developing nations. Consequently, they emphasize the urgent need to restructure foundational institutions such as the UN, IMF, World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). In doing so, BRICS now positions itself as the voice of the non-Western world. Today, the global arena is traversing an era in which the post-World War II international system has plunged into a profound crisis of legitimacy and representation. Developments such as the wars in Ukraine, Iran, and Lebanon, the Gaza crisis, global trade wars, the weaponization of sanctions, energy security challenges, and technological competition demonstrate that the current system struggles to mirror contemporary global realities. It is precisely from this premise that the BRICS nations operate, sending a clear message to the world through the New Delhi Outcome Document: “The status quo is no longer sustainable.”

One of the most striking aspects of the document is how clearly it demonstrates that BRICS no longer views itself as a mere platform for economic cooperation. Having long focused primarily on economic development, trade, and finance since its inception, BRICS has now reached a far more ambitious posture. In the New Delhi Outcome Document, issues of security, geopolitical crises, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, climate policies, energy transition, and international governance reforms occupy a place as central as economics. This indicates that BRICS’s ambition to become a foundational actor in global politics is steadily gaining traction. Reading between the lines, the strongest emphasis emerges on the concept of a “multipolar world.” The core approach of BRICS is animated by the premise that the Western-centric, largely US-led international order, which took shape over the decades following the end of the Cold War, is no longer the sole alternative. Throughout the declaration, the repeated use of phrases like “more just,” “more representative,” “more democratic,” and “more inclusive” international system constitutes a direct critique of the current distribution of global power.

The sections concerning the reform of the United Nations Security Council are particularly critical. Indeed, the call for UN reform stands out as one of the most pivotal political segments of the document. BRICS nations explicitly state that the current structure fails to reflect contemporary realities. They contend that Africa, Latin America, and emerging Asian powers are underrepresented in decision-making mechanisms. What is even more remarkable is that China and Russia have reaffirmed their support for India and Brazil to assume greater roles within the Security Council. This state of affairs reveals, first and foremost, the elevation of India and Brazil to global-power status. Secondly, it demonstrates an increasing political cohesion within BRICS. Finally, it illustrates a fundamental questioning of the post-WWII international order.

Another prominent element in the document is the sharp critique of the sanctions policies pursued by the United States and the West. The intensive use of economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool in recent years has engendered collective discomfort among BRICS nations. The text emphasizes that unilateral sanctions violate international law and severely hamper the economic development of developing nations. Although no countries are named directly, this formulation can be read as a potent critique targeted at measures such as US sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, as well as the embargo on Cuba. This approach is a continuation of BRICS’s long-standing critique regarding the “weaponization of economics.” Indeed, one of the most strategic segments of the declaration emerges here. For BRICS is no longer merely criticizing the existing financial architecture; it is actively endeavoring to construct alternative mechanisms. Initiatives such as cross-border payment systems, trade in local currencies, financial integration, and the strengthening of the New Development Bank can be read as harbingers of a long-term quest to forge an alternative to the dollar-centric global economic structure. While it is premature to speak of a system capable of fully displacing the dollar, the steps taken by BRICS are beginning to demonstrate that the current financial order is not the only option.

Another major political segment of the New Delhi Document concerns the Gaza and Palestine issue. Here, we witness one of the strongest stances BRICS has ever taken on the matter. The document employs highly resolute language regarding Gaza and Palestine, with a notable emphasis on an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders. Furthermore, South Africa’s legal action against Israel and the rulings of the International Court of Justice are directly recalled in the text. In the face of recent offensives and the unfolding humanitarian crisis, BRICS nations have displayed one of their clearest collective stances to date. The call for an immediate ceasefire, the demand for unhindered humanitarian aid delivery, support for Palestinian statehood, and the emphasis on international law stand among the declaration’s most potent political messages. This can be interpreted as an indication of BRICS’s desire to become a more visible and effective political actor in global crises.

On the other hand, the text does not entirely gloss over the internal divergences within BRICS. It openly acknowledges that members hold differing views, particularly on Middle Eastern issues. This is significant because today’s BRICS is no longer a bloc comprised solely of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. With the integration of new members such as Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, it has evolved into a far more complex geopolitical entity. Interestingly, the document explicitly notes that rather than a unified stance, differing perspectives exist on certain issues. Specifically, it is conceded that members hold divergent positions on matters concerning Iran, the Gulf states, and Yemen. Despite these differences, the bloc’s ability to establish common ground demonstrates an expansion of BRICS’s diplomatic capacity. Viewed from this perspective, the New Delhi process also represents a significant diplomatic triumph for India. While the recent wave of expansion—bringing in Iran, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia—has enriched the platform’s geopolitical diversity, it has also rendered collective decision-making processes more intricate. Particularly at a juncture where the war in Iran continues, the deep-seated divergences between Iran and the Gulf states led many experts to predict that BRICS would struggle to find common political ground and that the summit would be fraught with severe diplomatic friction. However, despite all these differences, India succeeded in rallying members with diverging interests and priorities around the same platform, proving that BRICS retains its capacity to generate dialogue rather than fracture. In this context, the outcome in New Delhi is not limited merely to the content of the published joint text. The true, striking success lies in the preservation of a diplomatic arena that enabled members—who find themselves directly opposed on certain issues in an extremely sensitive and polarized crisis environment—to compromise on other matters and continue negotiating under the BRICS umbrella.

Furthermore, one of the document’s most critical messages emerges in the realm of technology. The extensive coverage of topics such as artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, data security, and cybersecurity is no coincidence. Indeed, the global power struggle of the future will be shaped heavily through technological supremacy. BRICS nations clearly demonstrate their awareness of this reality and their intent to act in unison in the technological race. Particularly noteworthy is their quest to develop alternatives to Western-centric norms in artificial intelligence governance. A distinct approach is also observed in energy and climate policies. Instead of the rapid energy transition frequently championed by Western nations, the concept of a “just energy transition” is prioritized. At the heart of this approach lies the conviction that the economic growth needs of developing nations must not be disregarded. BRICS countries advocate for a balance between environmental responsibility and the right to development. This points to a major fault line that will become increasingly pronounced in global climate debates in the coming years.

When all these headings are evaluated together, the resulting picture is remarkably clear: BRICS is no longer merely a platform for safeguarding economic interests. It is a center of power beginning to articulate its own vision of how the international system ought to operate. At the core of this vision lies the objective of greater representation, sovereign equality, deeper multipolarity, and a stronger voice for developing nations in global decision-making processes.

The New Delhi Document, brought to the table at the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, is far more than a mere communique; it is one of the landmark texts of the historic transformation unfolding in global politics. As the world rapidly moves away from a unipolar structure, BRICS is emerging as one of the most powerful political and economic vehicles of this transition. Today, many rules of the international system may still be written by the West. Yet, the message rising from New Delhi is clear: far more actors now demand a seat at the table to rewrite those very rules. BRICS is transitioning from an economic club into a political, diplomatic, financial, and technological powerhouse. Its claim to serve as the collective voice and compass of the Global South is strengthening. It pursues a dual strategy: offering an alternative to Western-centric institutions while simultaneously working to transform them. BRICS is not yet establishing institutions to directly replace the UN, IMF, World Bank, or WTO; rather, it is striving to change the rules and the distribution of power within them.

The 2026 New Delhi Document of the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, hosted by India under its presidency, can be regarded as one of the most comprehensive strategic documents in the twenty-year history of BRICS. The text serves as a political manifesto for an era marked by the sunset of the US- and Western-led unipolar epoch, the demands of rising powers for greater agency, and the accelerating quest of the Global South to establish a permanent weight in the international system.

The essence of the document can be distilled into a single sentence: while BRICS remains a platform that adapts to the rules of the existing international order, it is simultaneously transforming into a global actor that seeks to rewrite them.

Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).

X: @umur_tugay

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NATO as the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism

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Contrary to what is written in its founding charter and press releases, or what its proponents claim, NATO is no ordinary defense and security organization. It is far more than that. It is a multidimensional, multifaceted organization driven by distinct ideological, political-economic, and class-based preferences. Moreover, as an organization born in the early stages of the Cold War, while its primary objective was ostensibly defined as “opposing the USSR and communism,” its actual function went far beyond this: it served as a mechanism to keep alliance members aligned with and under the control of the United States. Through NATO, the US has established immense influence not only over the defense, security, and foreign policies of member states, but also over their domestic politics, economic policies, educational institutions, universities, academia, think tanks, trade unions, and cultural industries.

As the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism, NATO launched its first out-of-area military operation in the mid-1990s in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Balkans. This was followed by the intervention in Kosovo in 1999. In the Gulf War of 1990–1991, during the US assault on Iraq, NATO was not directly involved as an alliance or a corporate entity. Instead, there was a US-led coalition that included numerous NATO members. At the time, NATO provided air defense systems to Türkiye but did not launch a direct military attack on Iraq.

In those years, with less than a decade having passed since the end of the Cold War in 1991, liberals and neoliberals alike were busy extolling the virtues of a single-centered, monocentric world order (note: not a “unipolar” world order, as a “pole” logically requires at least two opposites; to call it unipolar is incorrect both linguistically and logically). A tempest of liberalism, capitalism, postmodernism, globalization, and the “New World Order” was sweeping the globe. The United States had triumphed. The USSR had dissolved. The Warsaw Pact had collapsed. The Eastern Bloc had been consigned to history. The Berlin Wall had fallen. Socialism and communism had been defeated.

Under those circumstances, since NATO’s raison d’être had ceased to exist, it should logically have been consigned to history as well. Its utility was being questioned; people were asking whom it would protect, and against whom. Consequently, there was an active search for an enemy—or enemies—for NATO. And indeed, they were found.

Weapons of mass destruction and weapons of mass persuasion

NATO—which stood idly by, biding its time and waiting for the right conditions while Yugoslavia was being torn apart, its people massacred, and ethnic cleansing and mass rapes were being carried out—finally mobilized at the exact moment and under the specific conditions dictated by US imperialism, delivering a clear message to the world. It announced to the globe that its mandate now encompassed missions such as “peacebuilding, peacekeeping, and combating radical movements and terrorism.” This, of course, aligned seamlessly with the rhetoric of “human rights, freedom, democracy, and the civilized world” championed by the United States as NATO’s founding leader. For the United States cast itself as the guardian of these values and concepts; yet in their name, and hiding behind them, it attacked, bombed, and occupied other nations. It would go so far as to first instigate disputes and conflicts in target nations, lay the groundwork for ethnic, religious, and sectarian strife, actively encourage and provoke these clashes, and then proceed to occupy those countries under the pretext of resolving these very problems and restoring stability.

And there were millions of people across the world who believed these American lies. In particular, the US media, along with global outlets, academics, non-governmental organizations, and think tanks supported by Washington, operated virtually as weapons of mass persuasion, designed to convince and deceive the public.

The United States grew so arrogant in this policy that US Presidents began to declare this mission to be far more than a mere political duty—it was, they claimed, a religious, divine, and moral responsibility. The US peddled this falsehood in Iraq, as it did in Yugoslavia. As Yugoslavia was disintegrating—or being disintegrated—NATO sought to project an image and send a message that, as an alliance whose sole Muslim member was Türkiye, it was defending Muslim Bosniaks and Kosovars against Christian Serbs, thereby shielding the righteous and oppressed from the unjust and tyrannical.

The collapse of the Atlantic system

Years have passed. The global balance of power has shifted. The imperialist dominance and hegemonic capacity of the United States have eroded and continue to decay. Russia, particularly after Putin took power, staged a rapid recovery starting in the 2000s. It consolidated its influence, beginning with its near abroad. China, alongside its economic prowess, expanded its political, military, scientific, and technological power, emerging as the primary competitor and most worrisome adversary of the United States. Within the Atlantic system and the Western alliance—whose rules and institutions were established by the US itself—deep-seated divisions have emerged, running parallel to its fragmentation and loss of power. Under these conditions, the United States is both failing to manage its own deep internal fault lines and socio-class contradictions, and experiencing major friction with its allies. Its intent to reduce Canada to a mere province, its ambition to annex Danish-administered Greenland, its barbarism in Venezuela and Palestine, its joint aggression with Israel against Iran, and its threats directed at Cuba must all be interpreted through this lens.

In the past, an imperialist power would at least superficially fabricate lies to rationalize, justify, and legitimize its invasions, aggression, plunder, and barbarism. For instance, when the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001, immediately following the September 11 attacks, it cited the presence of Osama bin Laden—the Saudi leader of the Al-Qaeda terrorist network—in Afghanistan as its justification for the invasion. Similarly, during its 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US propagated the lie that “Saddam Hussein possesses chemical weapons and weapons of mass destruction.” When the German dictator Adolf Hitler invaded Poland in 1939, and the Italian dictator Mussolini invaded Abyssinia (Ethiopia) in 1935, they too presented historical, political, and geopolitical pretexts, however fabricated, to justify their actions.

Today, US imperialism does not even feel the need to construct such lies or manufacture pretexts. US President Trump openly talks of withdrawing from NATO, while scolding member states and insulting European leaders with arrogant remarks.

For this reason, NATO must be analyzed not by reading the words written in its founding treaty, but by grasping the shifting needs of US imperialism.

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Chinese diplomacy ascendant under Xi: All roads lead to Beijing

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Beginning in late 2025 and extending throughout 2026, one of the most striking developments in world politics has been the successive convergence of major powers upon Beijing. Direct, high-level engagement with China by actors at the very core of the global system—such as the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany—is widely interpreted as a potent signal of a shifting international order. These visits are indubitably far from routine diplomatic encounters. Rather, they represent symbolic and strategic maneuvers indicative of a fundamental realignment of the world’s power centers. In particular, the intensive engagement with China by four of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council within a brief window demonstrates that Beijing has evolved far beyond a mere economic powerhouse, establishing itself as a principal locus of global diplomacy.

For decades, the global order was predominantly US-centric. Following the end of the Cold War, the United States attained an unrivaled position militarily, economically, and diplomatically. China, conversely, was viewed as a rapidly growing economy defined primarily by its manufacturing capacity and cheap labor force. While Beijing possessed influence within the global system, the primary decision-making mechanisms of world politics remained firmly anchored in Washington. However, the transformation of the past two decades has elevated China from a mere economic giant to the epicenter of global strategic competition.

Today, China stands as one of the most pivotal actors in world trade. The vast majority of global supply chains are intricately linked to Chinese networks. Across a multitude of critical sectors—ranging from electric vehicles and battery technologies to artificial intelligence and solar energy—China has established itself as both a dominant producer and a global standard-setter. This immense economic capacity has naturally engendered commensurate political and diplomatic leverage. Global leaders now recognize that international challenges cannot be effectively managed by bypassing or ignoring China.

It is precisely here that the core significance of these recent visits to China becomes apparent. Donald Trump’s journey to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping underscored that despite the intense rivalry between Washington and Beijing, direct engagement has become an absolute necessity. Similarly, while Vladimir Putin’s strategic alignment with China has long been established, Moscow’s deepened cooperation with Beijing in the wake of its profound crisis with the West has significantly bolstered China’s geopolitical weight across Eurasia. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit was interpreted as a sign of Europe pivoting toward a more pragmatic trajectory in its policy toward China. The prior engagements of French President Emmanuel Macron had already demonstrated that Europe has no desire for a complete decoupling from China. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s discussions in Beijing were particularly noteworthy from an economic standpoint, as the Chinese market remains indispensable to German industry. Furthermore, the intensive diplomatic relations maintained by Serbian President Alexander Vučić with China demonstrate that Beijing’s influence on the European continent is by no means confined to major Western European states. Through infrastructure investments, transport projects, technology transfers, and defense cooperation in recent years, Serbia has emerged as one of China’s closest partners in Europe.

The common denominator among these visits was the pursuit of direct engagement with Xi Jinping. Xi is no longer viewed merely as the leader of China; for many nations, he has become a preeminent figure shaping the future of the global system. The transformation of China under Xi into a more centralized, visionary state structured around long-term strategic planning has magnified the personal significance of his leadership. Today, the international community is intensely focused on Xi Jinping’s decision-making. Consequently, pilgrimages to Beijing represent an effort to establish a direct, unmediated channel to Xi himself.

Symbolism is of paramount importance here; in international politics, the optics of “who travels to meet whom” are central to the perception of power. If global leaders continuously travel to Beijing while Xi travels sparingly—yet remains the figure everyone seeks to audience with—it naturally reinforces the message: Xi Jinping is no longer just the leader of China, but a chief architect of the global system. Remarkably, Xi’s reduced international travel has not diluted China’s influence. On the contrary, Beijing’s emergence as the primary destination of diplomatic pilgrimage projects an image of profound self-assurance. To many observers, this stands as one of the most visible symbols of a shifting world order. By rendering their respects in Beijing as much as in Washington, global leaders signal that the global equation is now being formulated here.

This shift is driven by tangible geopolitical realities. The contemporary world operates within a highly interdependent framework. While intense competition defines US-China relations, their economies remain deeply intertwined, rendering total decoupling virtually impossible. Across a vast spectrum of critical arenas—including trade, semiconductor technology, artificial intelligence, energy security, the Taiwan question, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Iranian crisis, and global supply chains—China has emerged as a decisive actor. Consequently, no major power, including Washington, can formulate a viable global strategy by sidelining China.

For Europe in particular, the China question has grown increasingly complex. The period between 2022 and 2024 saw Europe adopt a more hawkish and distant posture toward Beijing. However, slowing economic growth, energy crises, and trade frictions with the United States have compelled Europe to seek a more balanced approach. The pivot of European leaders toward Beijing reveals that complete economic decoupling from China would carry prohibitive costs for Europe. This dynamic also underscores the divergent internal priorities within the US-led Western bloc.

China’s rise should not be viewed solely through the prism of its relations with the West; the sphere of influence Beijing has cultivated across the Global South is of equal significance. In recent years, Chinese influence has expanded dramatically across Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, the Gulf States, and South Asia. Within this context, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to China carries profound weight. The China-Pakistan relationship has long been characterized as an “ironclad friendship.” Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has constructed ports, railways, energy facilities, and critical infrastructure in numerous countries, most notably Pakistan. Furthermore, unlike Western financial institutions, Beijing extends credit and investment with fewer political conditionalities. Consequently, many developing nations view China not only as a vital economic partner but also as a geopolitical counterweight to the West.

All of this inevitably raises the question: “Is China ascendant?” Based on the current landscape, the answer must be in the affirmative. For global leaders, Beijing has now emerged as a diplomatic hub as critical as Washington. Moreover, beyond its sheer economic scale, China is increasingly distinguished by its capacity for conflict resolution. Its pivotal role in facilitating the Iran-Saudi Arabia normalization, coupled with its close ties to Russia and its sweeping influence over the Global South, has significantly amplified Beijing’s diplomatic gravity.

The diplomatic traffic observed throughout 2026 highlights a fundamental truth: the world is no longer unipolar or monocivilizational. Opposite the United States stands a China capable of challenging it economically, technologically, culturally, and diplomatically. Consequently, this new era diverges sharply from the unipolar structure of the “American Century,” resembling instead a multipolar, multi-civilizational order where all actors cooperate and compete with one another simultaneously.

Xi Jinping’s position is central to this paradigm shift. For many leaders today, meeting with Xi in Beijing is not merely a matter of bilateral diplomacy, but a strategic imperative for positioning oneself within the global balance of power. This has immensely enhanced Xi’s personal prestige. Within the international system, there is a growing consensus that on most critical issues, “if Beijing is not at the table, no resolution can be complete.” The acceleration of visits to China since late 2025 is not merely a reflection of a crowded diplomatic calendar; it must be understood as a tangible indicator of a shifting world order. Beijing has transcended its status as an economic core to become one of the primary power centers of global politics. Consequently, Chinese President Xi Jinping is emerging as one of the most influential figures of this new, multipolar, and multi-civilizational world order.

Today, the diplomatic traffic directed toward Beijing is by no means limited to the United States, Russia, or the major European powers. The efforts of leaders from a vast geographical span—from Serbia and Pakistan to the Gulf States and African nations—to establish direct contact with China render Beijing’s central position in the global system increasingly conspicuous. Consequently, these recent visits are interpreted as signs that the power map of the new international order is being redrawn. For many capitals, the path to understanding global developments and formulating future strategies now runs through Beijing as much as it does through Washington. Thus, the adage “All roads lead to Beijing” is rapidly transforming from a rhetorical trope into a defining reality of contemporary international politics.

Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).

X: @umur_tugay

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