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China’s Diplomacy: 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook

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On the whole, the year 2025 has witnessed a volatile international landscape and extraordinary diplomacy practiced by China. The volatility of the international situation is manifested in the spillover of geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in the economic and financial sectors, dysfunction in rule-based governance, escalating technological competition, and the overlapping of non-traditional risks. The core of such uncertainties lies in the fact that the old international order is unsustainable while a new one has yet to take shape. The extraordinariness of China’s diplomacy is reflected in its sustained economic development amid global turbulence and transformation, along with a more proactive and assertive foreign policy. This has fostered a positive cycle of mutual empowerment between development and diplomacy, enabling China to emerge as a defender, builder and contributor to the current international order.

A. Proposing an Initiative–the Global Governance Initiative (GGI)

On September 1, 2025, General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward the Global Governance Initiative (GGI) at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, offering an in-depth elaboration on China’s vision of global governance for the new era. As another major global initiative following the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI), and the Global Civilization Initiative (GCI), it demonstrates that as a responsible major country, China is not only committed to participating in global governance but also taking a leading role in advancing it, so as to promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind.

Since the advent of the new era, President Xi Jinping has put forward a series of significant concepts and notions. Nevertheless, for Chinese scholars, there remains a need for in-depth research and summarization to understand these concepts and clarify the connections between them. To draw an analogy: if the “Chinese Dream” serves as the overarching goal, “peaceful development” as the pathway, the three major global initiatives as crucial strategic tools, the “new type of major-country relations” as China’s vision for the desired international relations, and the “community with a shared future for mankind” as China’s blueprint for the ideal world, then the “Global Governance Initiative” not only acts as a vital strategic tool for China’s diplomacy but also embodies China’s vision for the desired international order, which is based on the following principles: adherence to sovereign equality, abidance by international rule of law, practice of multilateralism, advocacy of a people-centered approach, and focus on action orientation.

B. Hosting Two Major Home Ground Diplomacy Events–the SCO Summit and the September 3rd Military Parade

First, hosting the SCO Summit in Tianjin. The significance of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is not merely a political platform distinct from Western blocs, but an important cornerstone for the future integration of Eurasia.

  1. Though initially established as a regional security organization, the SCO has now evolved into a pivotal cross-regional platform that coordinates regional and global affairs spanning security, economy, culture and other fields.
  2. The prior accession of Belarus has enabled the SCO to further expand its reach into Europe, while the earlier membership of India, Iran and Pakistan has solidified the organization’s strong standing in South Asia.
  3. In addition, a host of countries including Turkey, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the Maldives have expressed their aspiration to join the SCO, which fully attests to the organization’s appeal and promising prospects.
  4. Most importantly, the SCO is one of the few international organizations where China (with Russia) holds sufficient discourse power, serving as a reliable and crucial lever for China (with Russia) to advance the building of a global order.

Second, the September 3rd Military Parade stood as China’s most significant home ground diplomacy event in 2025. It had to fulfill two criteria of excellence: first, a spectacular display in the square–a goal well within China’s capacity; second, a compelling showcase from the rostrum–a task falling under the purview of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Success in this regard would serve as a powerful endorsement and rallying call for China. Without meeting these two requirements, it would be impossible to fully demonstrate the significance of China’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression to the global fight against fascism.

Despite obstruction from the United States and Japan, the event was still attended by leaders, heads of government and heads of international organizations from 26 countries, with the participants representing a broad cross-section of the international community. The two dimensions of excellence achieved by the parade not only bolstered national cohesion at home, but also elevated China’s international influence abroad, while simultaneously enhancing China’s strategic deterrence. Through the parade, China identified who its friends and foes are–all those who came to Beijing are friends.

 C. Properly Managing Three Major Bilateral Relationships–China-U.S., China-Russia and China-EU Relations

The year 2025 saw China-U.S. relations experience violent storms. In April, the Trump administration imposed exorbitant tariffs on more than 100 countries and regions around the world, including China, under the pretext of “reciprocity”. At the end of September, it further escalated export controls against China. These two moves both triggered resolute countermeasures from the Chinese side. However, each of the two rounds of volatility lasted only about a month. The economic and trade consultations held in Geneva in May and the meeting between the two heads of state in Busan, South Korea at the end of October drove a temporary détente, and the speed at which bilateral relations returned to stability was unprecedented. With the release of the U.S.’s latest National Security Strategy, the U.S. has begun to regard China as an equal competitor. It is expected that the heads of state of China and the U.S. will meet on multiple occasions in 2026, which will surely provide fundamental guidance and strong impetus for the two countries to explore a sound path of coexistence in the new era.

In 2025, China-Russia relations forged ahead against all odds and scaled new heights. Marking the 80th anniversary of the victories of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, the Soviet Union’s Great Patriotic War and the World Anti-Fascist War, President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin exchanged visits within the year, attending the 80th-anniversary commemorative events in each other’s countries respectively. The two countries intensified coordination on strategic issues and jointly safeguarded the post-WWII international order. On the Taiwan question, Russia firmly upheld China’s propositions. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China welcomed positive progress toward a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, stood ready to maintain communication with Russia, implement the important common understandings reached by the two heads of state, and make unremitting efforts together to uphold regional and global peace and stability. Besides, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the BRICS cooperation mechanism serve as crucial platforms for China and Russia to conduct comprehensive strategic coordination, advocate multilateralism, strengthen practical cooperation, and enhance solidarity among the Global South.

China attaches great importance to Europe’s role within the quadrilateral framework of China, the United States, Russia and Europe. The year 2025 marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the European Union. Since the start of this year, China-EU interactions have been frequent, with high-level exchanges, economic and trade cooperation, and people-to-people exchanges witnessing a continuous upsurge. As the EU’s second-largest trading partner and vice versa, China has seen the mutual importance of bilateral trade further highlighted.

At present, the EU is confronted with a host of difficulties and severe challenges. Domestically, populism continues to gain ground and protectionism keeps rearing its head, making it increasingly difficult for governments to govern. Externally, the protracted Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel conflicts have led to a worsening security environment, while the United States’ sabotage of global rules has resulted in constant trade frictions between Europe and the US. The EU needs to have a clearer understanding of this: China is not the creator of the EU’s problems, but a force that the EU can draw on to address the aforementioned difficulties and challenges. China’s cooperation is indispensable for Europe’s economic development–particularly its green transition–as well as for Europe to achieve strategic autonomy, uphold multilateralism and strengthen global governance.

D. President Xi Undertakes Four Overseas Visits, with Head-of-State Diplomacy Playing an Increasingly Prominent Role

From April 8 to 9, 2025, the Central Conference on Work Related to Neighboring Countries was held in Beijing, highlighting the pivotal role of neighboring countries in China’s diplomacy. Subsequently, from April 14 to 18, 2025, President Xi Jinping paid state visits to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia at their invitation. In May, he made a state visit to Russia and attended the celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War of the Soviet Union. In June, he traveled to Astana, Kazakhstan to participate in the Second China-Central Asia Summit. From October 30 to November 1, he visited the Republic of Korea to attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders’ Informal Meeting and conducted a state visit to the country. Recently, political instability has emerged in some of China’s neighboring countries, which has directly hindered the smooth advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative in South and Southeast Asia. To counter and break the United States’ attempts to divide China and its neighboring countries, China should step up efforts to mediate disputes among neighboring states and further deepen its relations with them.

E. The Evolving Trend of the Current International Landscape

A distinct objective trend is emerging in the trilateral relations among major powers: a shift away from the traditional balance of power among established powers toward greater reliance on countries of the Global South. The current international landscape is defined by three key blocs: first, the Western bloc led by the United States; second, the resistance bloc spearheaded by Russia; and third, the Global South, with China included, which adheres to a strategic stance of non-alignment, non-partisanship and independent peaceful development. These three sides form a clear tripartite balance of power, while various multi-party configurations—such as China-U.S.-Russia, China-EU-Russia and China-U.S.-E—directly or indirectly drive the evolution of the aforementioned core trilateral framework.

Against this backdrop, three distinct trends in the current international landscape can be identified: The U.S. policy of “allying with Russia to contain China” is moving toward failure, and Russia’s “Look East” trend has become increasingly pronounced.

Emerging and developing countries have emerged as a pivotal force shaping the trajectory of the international landscape. Despite Trump’s return to power, the room for improvement in U.S.-Russia relations remains limited, and the contradictions between Russia and the EU are still acute.

F. Challenges Confronting China’s Diplomacy

China has always adhered to an independent foreign policy, with its overall diplomatic framework underpinned by the principle that “major powers are the key, neighboring countries a priority, developing countries the foundation, and multilateral platforms an important arena”. However, China’s relations with Western countries, particularly the United States, are currently characterized by strategic competition—a situation that has emerged as one of the most significant challenges facing China’s diplomacy.

The key to addressing this challenge lies in China assuming greater international responsibilities and enabling countries around the world to recognize the rationality of China’s system. This is already, and should continue to be, reflected in China’s responses to global crises. Looking across the globe, Europe has been re-tethered to the U.S. chariot by the Russia-Ukraine conflict; Russia is preoccupied with its own affairs; Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines lean on the U.S. to contain China; India plays both sides among major powers; Latin America is geographically distant from China; Africa largely represents a defensive front for China; and the situation in the Middle East remains intricate and volatile. Under this background, the proposal of the Global Governance Initiative signifies that we are committed not only to China’s own peace and development, but also to putting forward a long-term international strategic vision with a broader global perspective to promote peace and development for all countries in the world.

G. Expectations for China-Middle East Relations in 2026

Next year will be a landmark year for China-Middle East relations. The major home ground diplomacy events will include the Second China-Arab States Summit, the China-Saudi Arabia Summit, the 55th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Turkey, the 70th anniversary of China-Egypt diplomatic ties, the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Saudi Arabia, as well as the 10th anniversary of China-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership.

It is anticipated that China will further engage actively in Middle Eastern regional affairs. By participating in addressing regional issues in the Middle East, China can better accumulate experience in governing and managing international conflicts in this process, and also notably elevate its status as a major power amid such complex geopolitical maneuvering. The success of China’s Middle East policy will serve as compelling evidence of China’s major-power diplomacy advancing from the periphery to the center of the world stage.

Opinion

What is scale in foreign policy? How is success measured in foreign policy?

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By its very nature, foreign policy feeds into and draws nourishment from numerous, disparate, and varied fields. It is a domain with manifold and diverse inputs. For foreign policy is examined alongside a broad array of subjects, ranging from geography to history, economics to intelligence, and military might to public diplomacy, commonly termed soft power elements.

The capacity of the state, that is, the scale of the state, or in other words the aggregate of its elements of power (namely political, economic, military, and soft power components), is decisive in foreign policy. Geography is decisive in foreign policy. Commercial relations are decisive in foreign policy. Energy dependence on another country or countries, if present, is decisive in foreign policy. Foreign policy cannot be conducted in spite of these four factors.

There is more. A country’s capacity, its scale, does not increase overnight, from one day to the next. It requires planning. It requires national consensus. It requires time. It requires preparation. Nor are these enough. The regional and global environment, the conjuncture, and the international plane must also allow for it. The stance of allies and adversaries is, of course, also important.

For the international environment is, by its nature, complex. It is an environment rife with contradiction, turmoil, conflict, and tension. To draw an analogy, the person in the driver’s seat of foreign policy is not a motorist speeding along the road as they please. There are things they must not forget, rules they must obey, red lights, vehicles speeding up from behind, a truck moving ahead, and a heavy vehicle hurtling toward them from the opposite direction.

Success in foreign policy does not arrive simply because a politician we like has become foreign minister. For a foreign minister is only as effective as the power, capacity, and weight of their country. One must accept this plain truth.

Moreover, there are simple, straightforward questions that reveal whether foreign policy, which some find deeply complex and inscrutable, is successful or not.

There are undoubtedly ways to measure the effectiveness, prestige, influence, and success of foreign policy.

For instance, the number of countries that respect a passport, how many countries can be visited visa-free, and how many countries impose visa requirements and grant those visas only with great difficulty are important indicators of a country’s standing.

Let us take ourselves as an example. Which countries require a visa for the Turkish passport? Which ones do not? Is it easy for our citizens to obtain visas for the countries they primarily wish to visit?

Let us give another example from the Turkic world.

On the Cyprus issue, which we regard as a national cause across government and opposition, right and left, Kemalist and Milli Görüş adherents alike, how many countries have we succeeded in having recognize the TRNC? Why do the Turkic states (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) not recognize the TRNC? Far from recognizing the TRNC, how do the Turkic states in Central Asia (Turkistan) explain to Ankara their developing relations with the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus, which Türkiye does not recognize, their appointment of ambassadors, and their recognition of Southern Cyprus as the island’s sole legitimate government?

We must also ask this question, of course: What is the state of Türkiye’s bilateral trade with the Turkic states?

Let us give an example of the relationship between foreign policy and big capital.

In which countries are big capital circles, among the greatest supporters of the ruling bloc, winning major tenders?

In our country, across both ruling and opposition ranks, there is a political party order that supports Türkiye’s EU membership. Yet how much progress has been made on EU membership?

Why is US President Trump not keeping the promises he made to Türkiye at the NATO summit held in Ankara a few months ago?

How many contracts has the new regime in Syria, the al-Sharaa administration, awarded to Turkish companies for the reconstruction of its country?

Has the government in Libya that Türkiye supports paid the money owed to Turkish construction firms, outstanding for years?

How does Qatar, with whom our relations are very good, explain its developing ties, energy agreements, and joint military drills with Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration, disregarding our sensitivities?

Who is the addressee of the harsh statements used in recent weeks by Azerbaijan, which we view as “two states, one nation”? To what extent does Azerbaijan share Türkiye’s policy on Israel? What does Türkiye think about the scale, depth, and intimacy of Azerbaijan-Israel relations?

These questions can certainly be multiplied.

Yet without taking into account the scale of the state and observing the criteria for measuring foreign policy, no sound assessment can be made.

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The era of corridor alliances in the Middle East

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In the Middle East, war is no longer waged merely to seize territory. The true contest turns on who will control the energy pipelines, trade routes, ports, and railways of tomorrow. Missiles may strike cities today, but the maps of the future are being drawn through transport and energy corridors.

In this context, interpreting Türkiye’s presence in the Mecca Alliance solely as military support for Saudi Arabian security remains incomplete; it fails to explain why two states that viewed each other with mutual suspicion until recently would take steps toward a cooperation close enough to constitute a shared destiny.

Alongside Saudi Arabia’s existential motives, Ankara’s participation in this alliance is anchored in a profound geopolitical foundation: to position itself within, and if possible at the very centre of, the Middle East’s reconfigured energy and transport corridors.

Today, it cannot be said that Riyadh and Ankara see eye to eye on every regional issue. The threat perceptions and priorities of the two countries do not, quite naturally, entirely coincide. On the geopolitical chessboard, partnerships do not always arise from identical agendas. When reasons are sufficiently compelling, particularly existential ones, they can override political differences and enable common ground along the same strategic path.

A new war of corridors unfolds in the Middle East

On one side lies IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor), planned to extend from India through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Israel to Europe. On the other stands the Development Road, which aims to link the Persian Gulf across Iraq to Türkiye, and onward to Europe.

These two undertakings are, of course, far more than mere transport projects. They represent two divergent geopolitical answers to where the future flow of trade and energy between Asia and Europe will traverse; for Türkiye, this issue is of vital importance.

If a corridor system taking shape to Türkiye’s south, beyond Ankara’s orbit, becomes permanent, Türkiye could forfeit not only an economic opportunity but also a substantial portion of its strategic centrality in the Middle East. It is through this prism that the Mecca Alliance must be evaluated.

Türkiye’s seat at the same table with Saudi Arabia signifies more than military solidarity. Riyadh and Ankara must sit together to avoid exclusion from the region’s emergent security and economic architecture, for the security of a corridor and the corridor itself are no longer separate matters.

The Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, the Bab al-Mandab, and the Suez Canal are links in the very same chain. A security crisis in one directly impacts the others. While the vulnerability of Hormuz makes alternative export routes for Gulf oil indispensable, instability across the Red Sea heightens the strategic cost of Suez.

Saudi Arabia’s alternative pipelines connecting its eastern oil fields to Red Sea terminals are therefore not merely energy infrastructure; they are strategic bypasses mitigating dependence on Hormuz.

For Türkiye, the Development Road fulfills the same function across a broader geography. Stretching from the Persian Gulf through Iraq to Türkiye, and from Türkiye into Europe, this artery possesses the potential to forge a new overland backbone connecting the Gulf to the Mediterranean and Europe. As security concerns in the Red Sea mount and the vulnerability of Suez deepens, the value of this route rises accordingly.

The Hejaz Railway: Revived once again

The return of the Hejaz Railway to the regional agenda signifies far more than mere nostalgia. Once linking Istanbul to Damascus, Amman, and the Hejaz, the railway served as one of the primary transport and logistical arteries of the Ottoman geography.

Reviving the idea of the Hejaz Railway could become the emblem of Türkiye’s drive to reimagine its historical transport connections between the Gulf, the Hejaz, and the Levant through modern rail, energy, and logistics networks.

The objective here is not to restore the past, but to transpose the strategic logic of that historical geographical linkage into the twenty-first century. For this reason, Türkiye’s role in the Mecca Alliance and the resurgence of the Hejaz Railway project must be viewed as components of the same overarching picture.

Corridors do not consist solely of energy pipelines. Railways, ports, highways, electrical interconnectors, logistical hubs, and security architectures are all facets of the same geopolitical grid, and safeguarding these networks requires political alliances.

Herein lies the strategic significance of Saudi Arabia and Türkiye sitting at the same table in Mecca, even at a juncture when their views on Syria diverge.

Ankara and Riyadh do not need to agree on every subject. Yet neither wishes to see the new map of the Middle East drawn to its detriment. Türkiye’s aim is not to build an anti-bloc against any specific country alongside Saudi Arabia; rather, the goal is to avoid exclusion from the future energy and trade systems of the Middle East, while securing a decisive voice in establishing their security architecture.

Hence, for Türkiye, the Mecca Alliance is far more than a simple defence pact. Securing the Development Road, shielding Gulf energy corridors, stabilising the Red Sea, rethinking connections across the Hejaz and the Levant, and bolstering trade corridors reaching Europe all intersect within this single strategic equation.

In this equation, Türkiye’s foremost advantage remains its geography. Ankara sits at the northern terminus of the overland routes linking the Gulf to Europe; within NATO; and at the crossroads connecting the Black Sea, the Caucasus, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East.

Will Türkiye become one of the powers shaping the Middle East’s energy and trade architecture over the coming decades, or will it be reduced to a mere transit state traversed by routes designed by others? That question defines the true strategic significance of the Mecca Alliance for Ankara.

In the Middle East of tomorrow, it will be impossible to separate the corridor carrying energy, the security framework protecting that corridor, and the alliance constructing that security framework.

Whoever controls the corridor shapes commerce. Whoever guarantees the routes through which trade flows holds sway over the regional balance of power. This is the true dimension of the contest currently underway in the Middle East.

A succession of distinct and largely mutually exclusive ambitions are competing for dominance in the current climate: India’s linkage to Europe, the Gulf’s new economic horizons, Saudi Arabia’s alternative energy routes, the security crisis in the Red Sea, the strategic weight of Hormuz, and Türkiye’s aspiration to open outward to Europe via the Development Road. Ironically, perhaps, the conflict that will decide which corridor underpins global stability has already begun, and it will likely continue spreading to new fronts. Regrettably, the fires in our region appear poised to intensify long before they abate.

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Istanbul’s East-West Forum: A conversation the world can no longer avoid

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Dr. Ahmed Moustafa, Director & Founder, Asia Center for Studies & Translation, Egypt

In a city that has spent centuries translating the language of one civilization to another, the first East-West Forum arrived at a moment when the world itself seemed to have lost the vocabulary for talking across its divisions.

Held in Istanbul on Sept. 26–27 and preceded by meetings around the event, the forum brought together diplomats, academics, journalists, strategists and political thinkers from a wide range of countries. Hosted by Harici Media in partnership with the Berlin-based European Transcontinental Initiative, the gathering was conceived as an attempt to examine a world increasingly defined by competing power centers, regional wars, economic fragmentation, artificial intelligence and the erosion of confidence in institutions created after the Second World War. Harici reported that participants came from roughly 30 countries.

For us, the significance of Istanbul was not simply a matter of the speakers on the panel or the structure of the programme. Its deeper importance lay in the willingness to put difficult — and sometimes uncomfortable — questions on the table.

We would like to extend our sincere thanks and appreciation to my friend and brother, Mr. Tunç Akkoç, Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Harici Media, for his gracious invitation to a representative of the Asia Center for Studies & Translation, Egypt, to participate in the Forum as a speaker and commentator. His initiative in creating a platform where competing geopolitical narratives could meet directly deserves recognition.

In his opening remarks, Akkos stressed that the initiative was intended to establish a permanent platform where people representing different political and intellectual traditions and perspectives could meet and engage in direct dialogue.

This vision is particularly significant because the traditional language used in international relations has increasingly struggled to explain the realities of a rapidly changing world.

The Problem of Proxy Wars

During the session that discussed proxy wars in the region and ways to reach solutions to their crises, the Center put forward the view that the Middle East cannot simply be understood through the traditional map that divides the parties into “good” and “evil,” or into “responsible states” and “rogue states.”

Such terms, in our assessment, often reflect the perspective of powers that possess extensive influence over international media and financial and security institutions.

The Center particularly criticised what we see as political bias within important sectors of the Western media and some non-governmental organisations that receive Western funding. From our perspective, these institutions can, in some cases, move from being mere observers of geopolitical conflicts to becoming influential parties in the battle over the narrative and the story.

However, this view should remain open to debate and should not automatically be accepted as an absolute truth.

The more important question is not whether every Western journalist, every NGO, or every Western institution works to serve a single geopolitical agenda clearly, this is not the case, but whether the information environment itself has become so highly polarised that the public is now receiving radically different interpretations of the very same war.

In our assessment, the answer is increasingly approaching “yes.”

The problem becomes particularly clear when searching for the term “proxy wars” in the Middle East. Some of the first results focus on groups associated with Iran, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, as well as Hamas, whereas the history of regional conflicts is far more complex.

Al-Qaeda and ISIS emerged through different historical trajectories, with Anglo-Saxon support that was “created by Britain and the United States.” In environments dominated by the United States and Britain, Al-Qaeda emerged from the environment associated with Osama bin Laden and the Afghan jihad, while ISIS developed largely from Al-Qaeda in Iraq, under American sponsorship, to pursue a certain agenda in the region and advance the scenario of “creative chaos” promoted by Condoleezza Rice, the radical US Secretary of State.

At the same time, US policy toward Afghanistan during the Cold War contributed to shaping the broader environment from which some militant jihadist movements later emerged.

These distinctions matter.

Because propaganda often begins where complex historical details end.

Who Has the Right to Define a “Rogue State”?

The same problem appears in the vocabulary used to describe states.

Countries such as China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are frequently portrayed in Western strategic discourse as states challenging the existing international order.

Egypt, despite the different nature of its relationship with Washington, can also become the subject of criticism when its foreign policy does not conform to certain Western expectations.

The question is not whether these governments should be exempt from criticism. Of course not.

The deeper question is this: can the international system remain sustainable when one geopolitical camp increasingly assumes the authority to define which governments are legitimate, which movements are terrorist, which wars are defensive and which forms of resistance are acceptable?

That was one of the central questions behind our intervention in Istanbul.

The Middle East has repeatedly been presented through the lens of the “Iranian threat” as the principal strategic danger.

There is no question that Iran possesses significant military and regional capabilities, and that its policies are deeply contested by many neighbouring states. At the same time, reducing virtually every regional security problem to Tehran can obscure the interests and roles of other actors, including Israel, the United States, Gulf states, armed groups and local political forces.

The region has repeatedly paid a heavy price for simplistic interpretations of complex conflicts.

The Economics of Fear

The discussions in Istanbul also led us to a broader American question: to what extent can fear itself become a source of political and economic power?

Historically, the United States has experienced intense political campaigns shaped by perceived racial, ideological and security threats.

One does not need to accept every interpretation of this history to recognise that fear can become a factor with tangible economic consequences.

A 2020 study by Citi estimated that racial discrimination against Black Americans had cost the US economy approximately $16 trillion in lost economic output since 2000, based on an analysis of disparities in wages, education, housing and investment.

This figure demonstrates the extent of the economic losses associated with racial discrimination and exclusion. It also raises questions about the relationship between fear-based narratives concerning Black Americans, media influence, the political power of the gun lobby and the broader economic consequences of insecurity.

More importantly, however, the study highlights a fundamental point: bias and insecurity carry substantial and measurable economic costs.

The broader lesson has direct relevance to foreign policy.

When societies are continually presented with existential enemies, military spending and the expansion of security institutions become politically easier to justify.

America After Iran

In Istanbul, we also advanced the view that the United States after its confrontation with Iran in 2026 should not simply be understood through the traditional image of unlimited American power.

The conflict exposed economic and strategic vulnerabilities.

The Strait of Hormuz emerged as a major strategic pressure point for global energy markets, amid disruptions to international trade that forced governments and companies to search for alternative routes and supplies.

The consequences were reflected in oil prices and energy costs in Europe and elsewhere.

This does not mean that American power has disappeared. Rather, it suggests that military power is no longer synonymous with strategic control.

The rise of China, Russia, ASEAN, Iran and other centres of economic and diplomatic influence has made the international order increasingly complex and dispersed.

The East-West Forum itself reflected this reality, bringing together voices from Europe, Asia, the Middle East and North America while explicitly addressing multipolarity and the ongoing transformation of the global order.

America Is Changing From Within

The domestic dimension of American politics also deserves attention.

The emergence of figures such as Zohran Mamdani in New York and Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan reflects changes in the American political debate over inequality, foreign policy, healthcare, identity and the influence of established political and economic interests.

Their political trajectories should not be treated as evidence of a predetermined future for the United States.

They do, however, illustrate how issues that were once treated as peripheral including the costs of war, US policy toward Israel, economic inequality and the political influence of younger and more diverse generations have moved closer to the centre of American political debate.

This is another reason why East-West dialogue cannot remain confined to foreign ministries and military institutions.

A Dinner for Dialogue

One of the most memorable moments on the margins of the Forum was the private dinner held on the evening of Friday, September 25, hosted by H.E. Mr. Hasan Capan, Chairman of the Turkish-Chinese Friendship Foundation, and H.E. Ambassador Ersin Erçin, Vice Chairman of the Foundation, in honour of the speakers and participants.

We extend our sincere thanks and appreciation to both of them for their generosity, friendship and support.

The gathering was more than simply a dinner. It provided an opportunity for personal interaction, an exchange of ideas and the building of relationships among participants — precisely the kind of human diplomacy that formal conferences sometimes lack.

Real dialogue does not always begin behind conference podiums.

Very often, it begins around a single table.

Istanbul’s Larger Message

The first East-West Forum should be regarded as the beginning of a dialogue, not the end of a debate.

The organisers have already articulated a vision of transforming the initiative into an annual gathering in Istanbul, developing expert working groups, establishing an East-West Forum network and potentially creating a business council capable of connecting intellectual dialogue with economic cooperation.

This may ultimately prove to be one of its most important contributions.

The world that emerges from the current conflicts including the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz will require more than ceasefire agreements.

It will require a new conversation about security, energy, sovereignty, development, technology and coexistence.

Istanbul is an exceptional setting for such a dialogue. One participant even proposed moving the headquarters of international organisations, including the United Nations, to Istanbul.

For centuries, the city has stood between two continents without belonging exclusively to either.

The East-West Forum can follow the same principle: not choosing one civilisation against another, but creating a space in which East and West can confront their differences without turning disagreement into permanent conflict.

For this reason, we see the Istanbul gathering as an announcement of intent.

It was not an attempt to erase differences.

It was an attempt to make dialogue possible despite them.

At a time when proxy conflicts increasingly risk evolving into direct confrontations, this may be among the most important political conversations the world can undertake today.

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