Asia
China’s exports beat forecasts amid precautions against Trump’s tariff threat
China’s exports surged at their fastest pace in two years this October, as factories increased shipments to key markets to counter new tariffs from the United States and European Union and the looming risk of a two-front trade war.
The recent victory of Donald Trump, who has pledged to impose tariffs exceeding 60 percent on Chinese imports, is likely to lead to a buildup of stockpiles in China’s top export markets.
Trump’s tariff threat has unsettled Chinese factory owners and officials managing exports worth approximately $500 billion annually. Tensions are further strained by trade issues with the EU, which purchased $466 billion of Chinese goods last year.
While domestic confidence remains impacted by a persistent property market debt crisis, export momentum offers a bright spot for China’s struggling economy.
Exports from the world’s second-largest economy rose by 12.7 percent year-on-year last month, surpassing a 5.2 percent increase forecasted by Reuters economists and a 2.4 percent rise in September. However, imports fell by 2.3 percent, against predictions of a 1.5 percent decline, marking the first negative import growth in four months.
China’s trade surplus climbed to $95.27 billion in October, up from $81.71 billion in September.
“We anticipate a wave of front-loading into Q4 before pressure mounts in 2025,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “This is largely due to Trump’s tariff threat, which is becoming increasingly realistic.”
The ‘Trump effect’ on exports
China’s exports to the U.S. increased 8.1 percent year-on-year in October, while shipments to Europe rose by 12.7 percent over the same period.
“We expect exports to remain strong in the coming months,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, in a note. He added that the impact of Trump’s tariffs may not materialize until late next year.
Huang noted that Trump’s return could prompt U.S. importers to step up purchases to bypass potential tariffs, offering a short-term boost to Chinese exports.
China’s top exports to the U.S. last year included smartphones, tablet computers, and video game consoles. Similar to Trump’s initial term, Chinese electronics makers may once again be a target.
Yet, signals indicate waning demand for these goods. Trade data from South Korea and Taiwan points to slowing global demand, and German producers report declining interest from overseas buyers, suggesting that Chinese producers may be cutting prices or moving inventory out of China to attract buyers.
An official survey of factory activity in October showed Chinese factories struggling to secure overseas buyers.
“If the PMI new export sub-index is dropping while the export numbers are rising, it’s clear this is an inventory adjustment,” said Dan Wang, a Shanghai-based Chinese economist.
Rising rtocks and weak yuan boost exports
Chinese and Hong Kong stocks rose on Thursday, buoyed by investor optimism over potential stimulus measures, while the yuan rebounded from a three-month low against the dollar. Analysts note that the weak yuan may have fueled export growth, though it simultaneously raised import costs.
China’s imports from the European Union and Southeast Asia fell by 6.1 percent and 7.3 percent year-on-year last month, while Japanese imports continued to rise. Notably, crude oil purchases—from the world’s largest oil importer—dropped by 9 percent, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline on an annual basis.
Zhou Maohua, a macroeconomic researcher at China Everbright Bank, attributed the decline in import growth to weak domestic demand and low import prices.
Conversely, China’s soybean imports surged last month, as U.S. grain exporters raced to meet demand in China ahead of the U.S. election.
Economists warn against over-reliance on exports
Amid these challenges, economists urge Beijing to avoid over-reliance on exports for growth, recommending more economic stimulus to stabilize the economy.
ANZ analysts forecast a policy response involving monetary measures and other strategies to mitigate Trump-era tariff pressures.
“Authorities may also implement measures to cushion the tariff impact, such as subsidies or better access to financing,” said Raymond Yeung, ANZ’s chief economist for Greater China. He added that policy initiatives could also focus on domestic consumption campaigns and diversifying export markets within Belt and Road countries.
Asia
Pentagon plans covert spy ring for economic war on China, report says
The US Department of War (Pentagon) is reportedly planning to establish an extensive network of deep-cover agents to wage economic warfare against China and other adversaries of the US.
According to a report by The Washington Post citing six sources familiar with the initiative, the plan has not yet been put into effect. The newspaper reported that the initiative remains at the planning stage. The Pentagon, however, denies that any such initiative exists.
The report said the operatives would pose as entrepreneurs or private sector employees while concealing their ties to the US government. The network’s mission would be to gather economic intelligence and counter China.
The programme is led by Tom Rakusa, who spent 39 years at the CIA. Rakusa serves as a senior adviser to Deputy Secretary of Defence Steve Feinberg.
The proposed spy network is seen as part of a broader policy by the Donald Trump administration to sharpen economic competition with other countries.
The US is already resorting to tariffs, export controls, and investment in strategic sectors, alongside expanding its economic intelligence gathering.
According to The Washington Post, the new initiative demonstrates the Pentagon’s growing influence under the Trump administration. The department is currently seeking a record budget of $1.5 trillion.
Trade war flares up again with Trump’s return to the White House
The trade friction between the US and China flared up again following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. In April 2025, Washington raised tariffs on Chinese goods to as much as 145%, and Beijing retaliated with tariffs of up to 125%.
In May, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described China as the primary geopolitical challenge facing Washington. Rubio said that to avoid war, the two sides needed to manage their conflict of interests.
In July, Chinese expert Zheng Yongnian did not simply warn that underestimating the US could prove to be a “fatal mistake”; he stated it explicitly.
According to Zheng’s assessment, the US maintains its primacy through the role of the dollar, its military superiority, and its technological advantages.
Even so, the two sides agreed in June to declare a truce and lower tariffs. In autumn 2026, the US and China extended their trade truce until 10 January 2027.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the extension would give the parties more time to discuss economic issues.
Trade deals do not eliminate the strategic contradictions between the two countries. Financial Times columnist Rana Foroohar likened the race between the two nations for commercial, technological, and geopolitical influence to the 19th-century “Great Game” between the Russian and British empires.
Foroohar cited China’s standing in shipbuilding and commercial maritime transport, as well as its expanding footprint in overseas ports, among its key advantages.
Asia
Japan plans curbs on short-term home sales to cool urban prices
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) plans to restrict short-term property trading to rein in surging home prices in major urban centres, particularly Tokyo.
Led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the party aims to make support for working households a core priority ahead of local elections scheduled for April next year.
The LDP’s research commission on housing and land policy met on Wednesday to discuss the issue.
According to a report by the Nikkei Asia newspaper, Commission Chair and LDP lawmaker Midori Matsushima said at the opening of the meeting: “Prices of newly built condominiums across Tokyo’s 23 wards have doubled over the past decade. We must work on measures ensuring that people who wish to live in these homes can actually afford to buy them.”
Homeownership in the capital has become virtually unattainable for broad segments of the population. According to data from the Real Estate Economic Institute, the average sale price of a newly built condominium in Tokyo’s 23 wards rose %18.5 in fiscal 2025 compared with the previous year, reaching 137.84 million yen (around $872,000).
Meanwhile, statistics from the Ministry of Labour show that the average annual income of a full-time worker in the capital remained at 6.78 million yen in fiscal 2025. This widening gap between incomes and residential property prices is directly shaping political priorities.
During its campaign for the House of Representatives election in February, the LDP pledged to curb speculative transactions across metropolitan Tokyo and other regions. Earlier this month, a party project team focused on policies concerning foreign nationals also submitted a recommendation urging the government to introduce immediate tax measures against rising home prices.
Under current legislation, profits realized from properties sold within five years of acquisition are classified as “short-term capital gains”. These returns face a tax rate approaching %40, including income tax and local inhabitant tax.
Although this rate is twice the approximately %20 levied as “long-term capital gains” tax on properties held for more than five years, several party members argue it remains insufficient to deter speculation. Calls to tighten the framework may be considered as part of the annual tax reform package to be drafted in December alongside the LDP’s coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party.
The ruling bloc wants to present concrete housing pledges to voters heading to the polls in April across numerous urban centres, including 22 of Tokyo’s wards where local assembly terms expire.
“We need to support families with children, who are typically at the stage of purchasing a home,” a senior LDP official said.
Opposition parties are also preparing alternative proposals that target not only prospective homebuyers, but also residents forced into the rental market by high property prices and now affected by escalating rents.
Tax steps take precedence over limits on foreign buyers
Several countries seeking answers to housing affordability pressures have imposed direct restrictions on foreign purchasers. In South Korea, real estate policies played a major part in the declining public approval ratings of President Lee Jae Myung.
In August 2025, authorities in Seoul introduced an approval requirement for foreign nationals buying homes in the capital and adjacent areas, while also mandating that buyers reside in the properties for at least two years.
Canada and Australia have enacted temporary bans on foreign residential purchases, while Singapore levies a %60 additional stamp duty on foreign buyers.
The role of overseas investors in Japan’s property market also drew debate during the February election. However, restrictions aimed directly at foreign nationals are viewed as potentially conflicting with international trade and services agreements.
Consequently, rather than imposing restrictions based on the nationality of buyers, the government is discussing tax measures aimed at speculative real estate deals, such as rapid resales.
Fears that sharp market measures could shake regional banks
Concerns have also surfaced that aggressive steps to force down prices could harm the wider national economy.
A senior LDP tax official cautioned that a steep drop in land prices could weaken local financial institutions, warning: “We must consider the impact on regional banks.”
The real estate sector accounts for roughly %18 of total lending by Japanese banks. This proportion sits well above the %10 level recorded during Japan’s bubble economy of the mid-to-late 1980s.
At certain regional banks, property lending accounts for nearly half of total loan portfolios.
According to March 2025 data from the Financial Services Agency, approximately one-quarter of all loans extended by regional banks to the real estate sector are concentrated directly in Tokyo’s five central wards.
Buoyant asset valuations, supported in part by rising stock indices, have underpinned strong public approval for the Takaichi administration. Observers note that property interventions designed to cool the market could drag down equity prices and weaken the government’s standing.
A senior official on the LDP research commission stressed that decision-makers must act with caution regarding the scope and timing of any measures intended to bring price increases under control.
Asia
South Korea plans $120B spend on eight US nuclear power plants
South Korea will spend $120 billion to construct eight nuclear power plants in the US under an agreement that provides for $350 billion in investments in exchange for lower tariffs.
The South Korean government also announced that Seoul and Washington will begin examining a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Alaska comprising a large-scale pipeline to transport natural gas from the north of the state to the south, alongside the construction of an LNG terminal for exports overseas.
Seoul stated that a decision regarding the LNG project will be made following a commercial feasibility study. However, US President Donald Trump said that South Korea would invest $54 billion in the project, pointing to an apparent lack of full coordination between the two sides on the matter.
Trade and Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said in a statement: “This announcement opens a new horizon of cooperation where the two countries join forces to develop joint commercial ventures in strategic areas directly linked to economic security and future sectors such as artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and LNG.”
“We will adhere to the principle of prioritising national interests and investing solely in commercially viable projects,” Kim said.
Speaking at the White House, Trump characterised South Korea’s plans as “one of the largest energy infrastructure investments in American history”.
The announcement followed a meeting between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung roughly one year ago at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting held in South Korea, where they agreed on the creation of a $350 billion investment fund.
Under that agreement, $150 billion was allocated to the shipbuilding sector and $200 billion to other sectors. In return, the US announced it would reduce tariffs imposed on goods imported from South Korea from 25% to 15%.
Under the nuclear power project, South Korea’s state-controlled utility will build two plants in the US, while Pennsylvania-based Westinghouse Electric will construct six plants.
According to the South Korean government, this will mark the first instance in which a foreign country builds its own nuclear power plants in the US.
South Korean firms are also evaluating the possibility of acquiring a stake in Westinghouse as part of negotiations over sharing profits generated by the project.
South Korea additionally announced that it will build a $22.3 billion natural gas-fired power plant in Texas with a capacity of 6,472 megawatts.
The facility will be designed to supply electricity directly to nearby data centres. The project’s first phase is targeted to begin commercial operations in 2029, with full-capacity operations slated for 2032.
Seoul also disclosed that it had agreed to allow the US to receive 50% of the profits generated by the projects until South Korea recoups all of its investments.
After South Korea fully recovers its total investment amount, 90% of the profits will go to the US.
-
Europe2 weeks agoBerlin Left Party backs Israel’s right to exist for coalition pact
-
America2 weeks agoTrump weighs presidential memorandum to cut surging US diesel prices
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoEU and China reach preliminary deal to curb hybrid car imports
-
Diplomacy1 week agoSWP urges backing for Gulf trade routes bypassing Strait of Hormuz
-
Europe1 week agoLSE study finds post-bailout Greece turned into a cafe economy
-
America2 weeks agoEnergy firms enlist ex-US officials to tap Venezuelan oil
-
America2 weeks agoThiel targets Pope and Obama over AI in new ‘Antichrist’ lectures
-
Europe2 weeks agoGerman exports pivot to Eastern Europe amid drops in US and China
