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Constructing connectivity: A decade of China’s Belt and Road Initiative in the Global South

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Yingshi Gao, CGTN Journalist

It has been ten years since China initiated the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This September, the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway in Indonesia opened to traffic, drawing a barrage of international media spotlight and a fresh wave of skepticism from the West. Many outlets in the Western media sphere have cast a dubious eye on the economic viability of this railway, igniting the discourse around the purported ‘debt trap’ diplomacy often associated with the BRI. Echoes of neo-colonialism, too, resonate through the hallways of global dialogue, painting China’s vast infrastructural endeavor in shades of imperial ambition.

Both statistical data and local leaders have rebuffed this portrayal. Take the example of sub-Saharan Africa; in 2022, the debt-to-GDP ratio in this region stood at approximately 56.3%, whereas globally, it was 247%.

In 2018, former Liberia Public Works Minister W. Gyude Moore penned an article and commented, “The language of ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ resonates more in Western countries, especially the United States, and is rooted in anxiety about China’s rise as a global power rather than in the reality of Africa.” In 2022, a study from the Centre on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University also suggested that private sector maneuvering rather than Chinese scheming is more likely to induce a wave of defaults.

Another popular narrative describes China as using ‘untransparent’ debt strategically to aid ‘authoritarian states.’ Some argue that “Chinese aid poses a challenge to conditional aid, thus weakening democracy promotion.” Professor Andreas Freytag at the University of Jena, Germany, did research on this issue in 2022. His research discovered that Chinese aid correlates with a neutral or positive influence on the endorsement of democracy. Moreover, individuals displaying favorable sentiments towards China appear more inclined to cherish democratic values. On the other hand, the US’s favorable views do not consistently influence democratic support.

Compared to debt, the more urgent problem faced by the Global South is the inability to provide sufficient public goods, hindering faster development in these countries. In Africa’s energy sector, building a reliable electric system has been one of the significant challenges for decades. Access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa was only 47% in 2022, forcing locals to buy their own electric generators, increasing production costs, and generating more pollution.

This is something that Cao Fengze, a Chinese opinion leader and engineer, noticed. When he first arrived in Zambia, participating in the building of a water dam, he tried to buy an air fryer. He found the price of the air fryer to be much higher than expected. Cheaper air fryers were also available (usually less than 200 RMB), but everyone advised him not to buy one since the electrical power system in Zambia was highly unstable, and having multiple power outages on a daily basis was very normal. After a few ups and downs in voltage, lower-quality appliances would burn out quickly. I interviewed him about his fieldwork. From his perspective, establishing a local industrial system is only possible with a stable energy supply, and a gravity dam represents the most cost-effective power scheme for Zambia. Once constructed, a gravity dam requires less maintenance and still has a long lifespan. In his words, “If I embed a coin in the dam, the next person to see the coin may be from many centuries later.”

The lack of enough public goods also greatly impacts Zambia’s agricultural sector. For instance, the price variances between Zambia and its potential market, East Africa, are significant. Crops such as maize and soybeans can be sold at higher prices in Nairobi and Kampala. In June 2022, maize prices in Nairobi crossed $500/Mt, while the price in Lusaka was just over $200/Mt. However, farmers in Zambia are not able to benefit from these potential profits due to inefficiencies in cross-border markets and transport logistics. This forms a negative feedback loop: constrained by poverty, Global South nations often find themselves unable to invest in building and maintaining interconnecting highways. Without these crucial transport links, they remain trapped and mired in poverty, unable to unleash their economic potential.

But how to break that loop? In the eyes of the Chinese, the answer is not foreign food aid but vast investment in public goods to build a system that can generate blood for itself.

That is also why China has focused on building electric and transportation facilities among the BRI participating countries.

To tackle the power deficit, China funded and helped to build the Kafue Gorge Lower hydropower station, the largest power project undertaken by Zambia since its independence. Five new Chinese-built generators in this dam added 750 megawatts to the country’s national grid, adding nearly a third of this country’s electric capacity. Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema also participated in the commissioning ceremony and praised that both countries completed the project in ‘an ingenious way.’

Chinese infrastructure projects are more than just building roads and railways but aim to establish a systematic base for future development.

Building water dams, for example, has helped local workers learn new skills through participating in the construction work. The local government has also benefited from working closely with China in managing big projects, aligning different interests, and ensuring that everything runs smoothly.

It’s like fine-tuning a well-oiled machine. This isn’t just about making sure that trade keeps flowing but also about growing skill sets and laying down a foundation for the future.

Despite these advantages, the Belt and Road Initiative still has room for improvement. For instance, local communities affected by the projects have called for equal compensation. Moreover, there have been calls for enhanced transparency and adherence to stricter labor practices. Addressing these concerns will make the BRI a more robust and mutually beneficial initiative.

Diplomacy

CSTO strips Armenia of voting rights over two-year budget debt

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Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have stripped Armenia of its voting rights and its ability to appoint representatives to official positions due to a two-year debt to the organization’s budget.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “This decision was taken based on the organization’s charter due to Armenia’s failure to fulfil its obligations for several years.”

Prior to the CSTO leaders’ summit in Moscow, Peskov had stated that member states would “react” to the Caucasus country’s non-participation in the organization’s activities.

Ahead of the Moscow summit, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his country’s “interest has run out” regarding the CSTO. Through his press spokesperson, he announced that he would travel to Türkiye on 11 November to attend the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) instead of going to Russia.

The CSTO leaders’ meeting was held with the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin alongside the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

The leaders jointly took the decision to revoke Armenia’s voting rights.

At the conclusion of the meeting, the participants also signed a joint declaration.

The declaration stated: “We confirm our unconditional commitment to the goals set out in the CSTO treaty and charter towards creating favourable and stable conditions for the comprehensive development of member states.”

Pashinyan had frozen Yerevan’s de facto participation in the CSTO in February 2024, citing the organization’s failure to aid the Armenian side during the armed clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.

Having referred to the CSTO as a “soap-bubble alliance” since that time, Pashinyan accused the organization’s members of “planning war” together with Baku. He stated that Armenia would not return to active work within the alliance at least “over the next five years”, adding that he would welcome it if the country were expelled from membership.

Relations between Armenia and Russia grew tense once again in the spring of 2026, after Yerevan moved closer to the European Union (EU) and the Kremlin responded with a trade war.

In May, Pashinyan refused to travel to Moscow to attend the Victory Day parade and declared that he did not support Russia on the Ukraine issue.

In response, Putin called on Yerevan to determine its foreign policy course through a referendum, advising Armenian authorities not to forget the fate of Ukraine.

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US urges Russia to draft proposals for new European security pact

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The US administration has reportedly called on Russia to submit proposals for a prospective security treaty with Europe that would include measures to ease tensions between European nations and Moscow.

According to a report by news site Axios citing sources familiar with the matter, the US side conveyed the request during trilateral negotiations held in Abu Dhabi.

During the talks, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner suggested that the Russian delegation prepare a fresh proposal outlining its security concerns and demands.

The US delegation reportedly asked that this proposal clarify what kind of “symmetrical steps” Moscow is prepared to take to de-escalate tensions and “provide non-aggression guarantees to Europe”.

Another source familiar with the White House’s approach said the Trump administration aims to run the processes for a new European security architecture and a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine simultaneously.

Under this plan, the actual implementation of the security understandings would take effect only after the signing of an accord ending the conflict in Ukraine.

Assessing the approach to the process, the source said: “[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy will not agree to any compromise without knowing what will happen next regarding security guarantees. Putin also wants to see the exact same picture clearly. This is precisely why the security portfolio is so decisive.”

The same official noted that the US will not reach a security agreement with Russia without the support of Europe and Ukraine, adding that Washington will not grant Moscow veto power over European security decisions.

Vladimir Medinsky, aide to the Russian president and head of the delegation in the Ukraine negotiations, previously stated that the fundamental objective was building a comprehensive new security system in Europe.

Medinsky noted that the structure in question must take on the character of “a fair, new, modern Yalta and Potsdam that carries the spirit of Helsinki 1975 and responds to contemporary realities”.

The Russian official argued that if such a system were established, peace lasting for decades, or even centuries, could be secured in Europe.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also announced that Moscow possesses its own position paper on how a new security architecture in Eurasia should take shape.

Lavrov stated that Russia hopes the Washington administration will “maintain its determination to pursue dialogue aimed at achieving an honest balance of interests where nobody’s security is impaired”.

Russian authorities have repeatedly stated that the country has no intention of attacking Europe.

Pointing out that they have no reason to fight NATO countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin previously said: “We have no interest whatsoever, neither geopolitical nor economic, political nor military.”

In a statement in October, Putin said Russia has no plans to attack anyone “in 2029, in 2030, or in the year 2050”.

On the other hand, Putin claimed that “all NATO countries are fighting Russia” and stated that the Russian military is currently the most combat-ready armed force in the world.

Following the contacts in Abu Dhabi, Kushner announced that he and Witkoff would travel to Moscow.

Explaining that they plan to meet Putin during the visit to discuss European participation in negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict, Kushner argued that the parties could make “far greater progress” if the Russian leader consents to such involvement.

Yury Ushakov, aide to the Russian president, stated that the US special envoys will arrive in Moscow on 12 November, with the planned meeting with the Russian president scheduled for the first half of the day.

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Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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