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MIDDLE EAST

Egypt mobilises to prevent possible Palestinian influx into Sinai

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Cairo is bringing together Bedouins and tribesmen to improve security against a possible influx of Palestinians fleeing Israeli attacks.

The Israeli occupation of Rafah has increased the possibility of an influx of Palestinian refugees into Sinai, Egypt’s greatest fear. The Cairo administration, which has been preparing for Israel’s forced migration of Palestinians into Sinai since the start of the Gaza war on 7 October, accelerated these preparations after Israeli troops seized the Rafah border crossing.

According to Amr Emam of Majalla, the Egyptian authorities have recently united Bedouins and tribes in Egypt’s north-eastern region, which borders both Israel and Gaza. On 1 May, Egypt announced the formation of the Union of Arab Tribes, bringing together for the first time the Sinai tribes and the Bedouins, who have great influence in Sinai and other parts of Egypt.

It was recalled that these tribes have been supporting the Egyptian security forces’ fight against ISIS in the Sinai desert for the past 10 years.

Egypt is strongly opposed to Israel’s occupation of Rafah and has expressed its concerns on several occasions since the start of the war, while the Egyptian army has reinforced its border with Gaza, building a half-concrete, half-metal wall in the region. After 7 October, the Egyptian military presence in North Sinai was significantly increased, with tanks deployed in various parts of the Sinai desert on the road to the Gaza border. Egyptian special forces have also been deployed at various points along the Gaza border.

More than 1 million Palestinians have poured into Rafah after fleeing their homes in central and northern Gaza due to Israeli offensives and being told to go there for their own safety.

“The influx of desperate Palestinian refugees into Sinai will put the small number of Egyptian army units stationed on the Egyptian side of the 12-kilometre border between Sinai and Gaza in an embarrassing situation,” Majalla reported.

He recalled that Egyptian troops did not open fire on Palestinians when Hamas destroyed part of the Gaza-Sinai border wall in January 2008, allowing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to cross into Egypt: “It is unlikely that they would open fire in this war if faced with such a situation. This means that Sinai could become a permanent refugee camp for Palestinians. Hamas could turn the camp into a military base from which to launch attacks against Israel, undermining Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel.

The 1979 agreement between Israel and Egypt limits the presence of Israeli troops along the border on the Gaza side of Sinai. Before 2007, when Hamas won elections in Gaza, the Palestinian Authority provided security along the 14-kilometre border, known as the Philadelphi Corridor. Israel now wants to take over the Gaza section of this corridor, despite Egyptian objections.

The article pointed out that the same tribes will form a line of defence in case the Palestinians invade Egyptian territory, and quoted Mostafa Bakri, an Egyptian MP and spokesman for the Arab Tribes Union, as saying, “The union will be ready to defend Sinai by warning against the migration of Gaza residents to Sinai”. However, Bakri did not specify what measures the tribes would take to prevent the Palestinian exodus, but said that “a force of 10,000 people will play an important role in the defence of Sinai”.

MIDDLE EAST

Katz’s statement on Hezbollah disarmament surprises even Halevi

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Israel’s new Defense Minister, Israel Katz, appointed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to replace the recently dismissed Yoav Gallant, has sparked surprise with a bold declaration regarding Israel’s stance on Hezbollah. Katz stated that one of Israel’s primary goals is to disarm Hezbollah, leaving Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi notably surprised.

As Israel advances into southern Lebanon, negotiations continue in Washington and Beirut over a possible resolution to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. However, Katz emphasized that Israel would not halt its efforts until all military objectives are achieved.

“We will not cease fire, we will not ease pressure, and we will not support any agreement that does not fully achieve the goals of this war,” Katz declared during a visit to the Northern Command alongside Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi.

Katz outlined these objectives as: “disarming Hezbollah, pushing them beyond the Litani River, and ensuring the safe return of Israelis in northern areas to their homes.”

In the accompanying video, Halevi appeared visibly taken aback by Katz’s mention of disarming Hezbollah as an official objective, as this has not been publicly stated as a government directive.

Katz further stressed Israel’s right to “implement any agreement independently and to act decisively against any terrorist activity or organization.” He added, “We must continue to strike Hezbollah with full force.”

6 Israeli soldiers killed

Meanwhile, as Israel presses forward with its ground invasion of southern Lebanon, six more Israeli soldiers were killed in a clash with Hezbollah forces. This incident, one of the heaviest single-day casualties for Israel since the invasion’s onset, highlights the intensifying nature of the conflict.

According to a statement by the Israeli army, the soldiers, all from the 51st Battalion of the Golani Brigade, were killed in fire exchange with at least four Hezbollah fighters inside a building in a southern Lebanese village.

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MIDDLE EAST

Sexual harassment investigation targeting ICC Chief amid controversial prosecution

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has enlisted independent investigators to examine allegations of sexual harassment against Prosecutor Karim Khan.

The accusations against Khan surfaced as the ICC evaluated Khan’s request to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes in Gaza.

Finnish diplomat Päivi Kaukoranta, who leads the ICC’s oversight body, stated that an external investigation was initiated after reports surfaced that Khan had acted inappropriately toward a female colleague. Normally, such matters are managed by the court’s internal audit, but Khan personally requested that the Independent Supervisory Mechanism (ISM) oversee the case. Kaukoranta explained, “In light of the case’s unique circumstances, the ISM’s victim-centered approach, and the potential for conflicts of interest, the ISM agreed to the exceptional use of an external investigation.”

Khan denied the allegations, stating, “I have previously called for an investigation into this matter and welcome the opportunity to participate in this process.”

The investigation coincides with the ICC’s deliberation over Khan’s request to issue warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity related to Israel’s actions in Gaza.

While Khan’s move was supported internationally, it drew criticism from the Biden administration and U.S. Congress. The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed legislation that sanctions individuals affiliated with the ICC, including judges and their families, underscoring the U.S. policy of opposition to ICC jurisdiction over Israel.

Reports have also surfaced regarding Israel’s alleged threats toward ICC officials. In May, The Guardian revealed that Khan’s predecessor, Fatou Bensouda, was pressured in “a series of secret meetings” with Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, a close ally of Netanyahu. Cohen reportedly advised Bensouda to “drop the war crimes investigation,” allegedly warning her, “You don’t want to be involved in anything that could endanger your safety or your family’s safety.”

Khan has since noted he faced pressure before submitting his application for the arrest warrant.

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MIDDLE EAST

Trump will conditionally support West Bank annexation

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Former Trump aides have cautioned Israeli ministers not to assume Trump’s unconditional support for West Bank annexation in a potential second term, according to The Times of Israel.

At least two officials from Donald Trump’s previous administration advised Israeli ministers to temper expectations about Trump’s support for Israel’s annexation of the West Bank. Sources close to the discussions indicated that while annexation is not off the table, Israeli leaders should avoid viewing it as a “foregone conclusion.”

The message was delivered in meetings and discussions held in the months leading up to Trump’s recent presidential victory. However, some far-right cabinet members remained undeterred. On Monday, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared that 2025 would mark “the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank]” following Trump’s re-election. Last week, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir also asserted that “the time for sovereignty has come.”

On Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu announced Yechiel Leiter as Israel’s next ambassador to the United States. Leiter, a former settler leader, is known for his support of West Bank annexation and opposition to a Palestinian state.

In a statement to The Times of Israel, an anonymous Israeli official said Trump’s former advisers have not ruled out his potential support for annexation. However, they indicated it could jeopardize Trump’s broader foreign policy priorities, including countering Iran, competing with China, and ending the war in Ukraine. Trump would likely need the support of key Gulf allies—notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—to achieve these goals. Unconditional support for Israeli annexation, however, could risk backlash from these regional allies.

In 2020, Trump’s peace plan proposed annexing all Israeli settlements while leaving open the possibility of a Palestinian state in other areas of the West Bank. Although Prime Minister Netanyahu had hesitations, settler leaders and officials like Smotrich celebrated Trump’s recent victory as a chance to realize annexation plans.

A former Trump adviser told an Israeli minister that Trump’s support for Israeli sovereignty would likely come with more conditions than in 2020. After the Palestinian Authority rejected Trump’s “Peace to Prosperity” proposal in 2020, the Trump administration and Israel began planning a partial annexation of the West Bank. However, this initiative was set aside when the UAE agreed to normalize relations with Israel.

The U.S. commitment to the UAE to delay Israeli annexation efforts expires at the end of 2024. Still, a former Trump official told The Times of Israel that a major shift in U.S. support for annexation should not be expected. “If any shift happens, it would need to be part of a process,” the official commented.

Jason Greenblatt, Trump’s former Middle East envoy, reinforced this message, stating:

“I think it’s important that those in Israel who are celebrating President Trump’s victory do so because of his strong support for Israel, as evidenced by many historic achievements during his first term. Some Israeli ministers are assuming that expanding Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria is an automatic done deal and will happen as soon as President Trump takes office.

I suggest they take a deep breath. If I were advising these ministers, I would strongly urge them to focus on working closely with Prime Minister Netanyahu to strengthen U.S.-Israel relations and address the significant threats facing Israel. The time for discussions around Judea and Samaria will come, but context and timing are crucial.”

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