Middle East
Gaza ceasefire divides the US
As the international media and mediators (US, Egypt and Qatar) have announced, Israel and Hamas have agreed to accept the ceasefire agreement – an agreement that is permanent and not temporary, and if its provisions are implemented, the other parties will not be able to start the war again.
Mohammad bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar, while confirming the finalization of the ceasefire agreement, announced the implementation of its provisions from next Sunday (January 19). Joe Biden, the outgoing President of the United States, has also announced the finalization of the agreement.
Hamas, which is one side of the story, while giving in to the request of the mediators, has also welcomed the establishment of a ceasefire. In the meantime, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, has agreed to accept the agreement, but he has not made his position clear so far, which could indicate his displeasure with the situation.
There are a lot of points and unsaid things about the agreement and it requires to be examined not in one writing but in writings – but what is urgently important is the vacating of the White House by Biden for Donald Trump that will happen on January 20. In this regard, the discussion is that establishing a ceasefire is the result of the work of which of these two (Biden or Trump)? Of course, Trump has registered this achievement in his name by publishing a statement on his social page as saying “we have achieved many successes without even being in the White House. Just imagine the amazing things that will happen when I get back to the White House and my administration is fully confirmed.”
Contrary to Trump’s claim, there are also some media organs that defend the ceasefire in Gaza is not the result of his efforts, but due to Biden’s efforts. Here are their arguments:
First
It is true that Biden has stubbornly supported Israel since October 7 and without this support, Tel Aviv would not be able to continue the war against Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, Iran, etc.
For this reason, the critics of the Gaza war call what Israel has done in this area as a result of Biden’s support, but it should not be forgotten that at the same time, he stopped trying to establish a cease-fire to the extent that, if necessary, he did not avoid putting pressure on Netanyahu. Although he did not make an early impression.
It was Biden who, at the height of the Gaza war (November 24, 2023), forced the parties to agree to a ceasefire for four days – the ceasefire led to the exchange of a number of Israeli hostages with a group of Palestinian prisoners. This current agreement is the result of the plan that Biden presented in May of last year – a plan that was accepted by Netanyahu with disgust now and not at that time.
We have already discussed this once in the previous article, however based on the above plan, the parties stepped on the border of signing the agreement many times, but they went back a little. So, it can be said that Biden had already plowed the ground, but it yielded later (last evening). To say that nothing was done at all, we have spoken exactly to Trump’s taste.
Second
Not only the ceasefire in Gaza, but the end of the war between Hezbollah and Israel (November 27, 2024) was also the result of Biden’s efforts. The war in Lebanon was so intense that ending it was more difficult than establishing a ceasefire in Gaza.
It was after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the former leader of Hezbollah, that the Islamic Republic targeted Israel for the second time (October 1, 2024) with nearly two hundred ballistic missiles – the attack was called “Operation Honest Promise 2”. While for Gaza, compared to Lebanon, he did not do anything serious.
Falling short against Hezbollah was expensive for Netanyahu, but apparently, he had no choice but to accept Biden’s request. Meanwhile, Biden was not as concerned about what happened in Lebanon as he is about the Palestinians.
The 46th president of the United States not only ended the war in Lebanon, but also put an end to the power vacuum in this country – the election of Joseph Aoun as the president.
Lebanon has been without a president since October 30, 2022, which can be said to be practically in a power vacuum. But Biden, in cooperation with France and Saudi Arabia, did something to greatly reduce the severity of the political crisis in Beirut – if it does not sink completely.
If we pay close attention, the difficulty of appointing the president in Lebanon was not less than the difficulty of ending the war, considering the tribal structure of this country. The war and power vacuum in Lebanon was ended without anyone saying anything about Trump’s role in it.
Third
It is true that Trump has always emphasized the need for an immediate end to wars. But he is talking more about Ukraine than Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, etc. Due to his own reasons, he does not like Ukraine and the ruler of this country, and for this reason, he has exposed Biden to serious criticism for the money he gives to Kiev.
He had already claimed that in case of victory, he would end the war in Ukraine for one day – even at the cost of displeasure of Kiev and America’s European allies. Every time he has spoken about the war in Gaza and Lebanon, he has severely criticized Biden on the pretext that he did not support Israel well. He even accused Kamala Harris – the Democratic candidate – of being anti-Israel many times in the heat of the election.
So, if the reader focuses on Trump’s view of the crises in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, he/she will inevitably reach the understanding that he is against the continuation of the war in Ukraine and not in Gaza and Lebanon. The reason is also clear: Israel is important to him. For this reason, many analysts believe that when Trump talks about the end of wars in the world, he considers the Middle East to be an exception to the rule, because Israel is present in it.
Fourth
The end of the Gaza war is the biggest achievement considering the high ceiling of human casualties and financial damage in this strip – an achievement that Biden made in the last days of his presence in the White House.
No matter what Trump claims, this coin was struck in the name of Biden – because he is still the ruler of America. Trump wanted to record this achievement, but luck did not help him. According to reliable reports, Trump told Netanyahu that he should finish his work by January 20. In the sense that he has freedom of action until after Biden leaves the White House and then prepares to sign the ceasefire agreement – an agreement that should have been decorated with the color of his representative’s pen, which was not.
Trump’s attempt to delay the establishment of a ceasefire does not necessarily mean the confirmation of the continued destruction in Gaza, but rather he wanted to put an end to the crisis in this strip and Lebanon after the moment he entered the White House, so that the most benefit from it is Israel and the most loss is for its competitors.
Middle East
US waives human rights terms on $320m military aid to Egypt
The US State Department stated that it has waived human rights conditions on more than $300 million in military aid to Egypt.
The statement emphasised that this decision was taken in consideration of Cairo’s “helpful role” since the outbreak of the war against Iran.
Egypt began receiving substantial support from the US after signing a peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
Since the late 1980s, the country has received approximately $1.3 billion annually in US military assistance.
A portion of this aid is subject to conditions related to human rights and democracy, which can be waived on national security grounds.
Withholding funds, including during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, has caused tension between Cairo and Washington in the past.
A letter dated 21 September and addressed to various congressional committees, obtained by Reuters, stated that Secretary of State Marco Rubio “decided to waive the certification requirement under the fiscal year 2025 Foreign Military Financing programme for Egypt of $320 million.”
This waiver was subsequently confirmed by the State Department.
An accompanying memorandum justifying the decision stated that this portion of military aid was “essential for counterterrorism, border security, or non-proliferation programmes, or otherwise important to the national security interests of the United States.”
The memorandum, dated 4 September and bearing Rubio’s signature, stated: “Exercising this waiver authority is critical to the US-Egypt relationship and to US national security priorities, particularly given the helpful role Egypt has played in the aftermath of Operation Epic Fury.”
“Operation Epic Fury” is the designation used by the US military for the campaign launched jointly with Israel against Iran in late February.
The State Department memorandum, whose authenticity was confirmed by two sources in Washington familiar with the letter, did not provide detailed information regarding what was termed Egypt’s “helpful role”.
The State Department’s annual decision on military aid to Egypt typically covers funds allocated for the preceding fiscal year, which ends on 30 September.
A State Department spokesperson stated that Rubio waived the certification in the interest of US national security and that the US continues to cooperate with the Egyptian government across a range of issues.
In an emailed statement, the spokesperson said: “This waiver recognizes the importance of maintaining security cooperation with Egypt at a time of significant security challenges in the region.”
The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately comment on the matter.
The spillover effects of the Iran war have imposed a heavy toll on US security partners, including Egypt.
Owing to rising fuel prices and other disruptions, the Egyptian economy is passing through a difficult period.
Under the Biden administration, the US withheld portions of the annual military allocation on multiple occasions over Egypt’s human rights record.
In 2024, following the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israel and the subsequent war in Gaza, the Biden administration set aside human rights conditions, disbursing the entire $1.3 billion allocation to Egypt for the first time in its tenure.
Human rights organisations have long accused Egypt, under the administration of President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, of widespread human rights abuses, including torture and enforced disappearances.
This week, Egyptian police detained six journalists from a fact-checking and investigative media outlet, accusing them of spreading false information on behalf of the banned Muslim Brotherhood.
Egyptian authorities state that they have taken steps to address human rights issues. Sisi said stability is paramount and that the government supports human rights by working to provide for basic needs.
Middle East
Britain expands curbs on arms exports to Israel over Gaza risks
Britain has significantly broadened its military export restrictions targeting Israel, suspending or rejecting more than 80 licences for items the IDF could use in Gaza.
This figure is nearly triple the number affected when the policy was first introduced in September 2024.
United Kingdom Minister of State for the Middle East Stephen Doughty said that as part of what he described as a “tighter system” for assessing exports to Israel, more than 50 further export applications have been refused since approximately 30 licences were initially suspended.
Under the initial decision taken in September 2024, 30 of roughly 350 licences were suspended after the British government concluded there was a “clear risk” that certain military exports could be used to commit or facilitate serious violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.
The affected equipment included components for military aircraft, drones, naval systems, and targeting gear.
Doughty said additional measures adopted this month established what he termed a “double safeguard” mechanism within the approvals process.
Export applications must now be assessed both against existing international humanitarian law criteria and in light of Britain’s position on the legality of Israel’s presence in the Palestinian territories.
“We have so far suspended or refused more than 80 licences,” Doughty said, adding that he had personally examined each licence.
Despite the wider restrictions, British-origin parts entering the international F-35 fighter jet supply chain continue to be largely exempt.
The UK government argues that preventing British-made components from entering the global F-35 pool could undermine the programme as a whole and have serious consequences for the security of the UK and its allies.
Direct exports of F-35 parts intended specifically for Israel remain suspended.
Doughty defended maintaining the supply of components via the international programme, arguing that halting it could have severe ramifications for the broader European and allied security architecture.
Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Emily Thornberry challenged this position, arguing that the issue was political rather than purely legal.
Thornberry suggested adopting an approach similar to the Dutch model, under which components entering the international supply chain could be flagged as “not intended for aircraft bound for Israel”.
The initial suspension was implemented in September 2024 by then Foreign Secretary David Lammy.
Lammy stressed at the time that the measure did not constitute an arms embargo and applied solely to items assessed as usable in military operations in Gaza.
Since then, the policy has been tightened further under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
The expanded export restrictions follow the Burnham government’s adoption of a more confrontational policy toward the Israeli government.
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband drew sustained applause at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Liverpool after delivering a sharp critique of the Netanyahu government’s policies and defending the decision to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank.
Accusing Israel of committing war crimes in Gaza, Miliband stated that the British government heard public outrage over the conflict, telling delegates: “We hear you. You were right.”
Middle East
Netanyahu holds secret UAE talks with Saudi Arabia and Arab officials
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with representatives of Gulf and Arab nations that lack diplomatic ties with Israel, including Saudi Arabia, during his weekend visit to the United Arab Emirates.
Sources close to the gathering told the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday that representatives from Morocco, Libya, Jordan, and Qatar also took part in the meeting.
Netanyahu made a unannounced visit to Abu Dhabi on Sunday, where he met with the country’s leader, Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
According to Israeli media, this marked the first time the United Arab Emirates officially confirmed a visit by Netanyahu.
The meeting was arranged by Mossad Director Roman Goffman “at the request of Saudi Arabia, which asked for Israel’s assistance against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea region,” according to Yedioth Ahronoth.
The discussions addressed Iran and the Houthi militia. The newspaper added that the Arab states heard from Israel that “Israel is prepared to assist countries in the region with air defence systems, just as it aided the UAE during the conflict with Iran.”
Conflict in Yemen intensified in September when Ansarullah militiamen launched a rapid offensive that seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, including the vital maritime corridor of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Yemeni resistance also imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s energy exports and staged multiple attacks against the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia reportedly sought military assistance from the US to counter Ansarullah.
Washington declined to attack the Houthis directly, but announced that it would provide intelligence and targeting support.
Reporting on the same visit, The Jerusalem Post said Netanyahu spent six hours in the UAE and that the principal subject of his discussions with MBZ was Iran.
Citing sources familiar with the matter, the newspaper added that the trip came “after Netanyahu exerted heavy pressure on the United Arab Emirates to arrange a meeting ahead of the Israeli elections on 27 October.”
Separately, the Associated Press, citing a person with direct knowledge of the meeting, reported that Netanyahu’s visit to the UAE was arranged in part to ask MBZ to deny reports that he had warned the Israeli prime minister of an impending Hamas threat prior to 7 October 2023.
According to Israeli media, Netanyahu’s office denied the AP report, issuing the following statement:
“Fake news. The visit focused solely on strengthening ties between the two countries and on regional issues.”
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