Middle East
Iranian NGO report records 50% drop in terrorist attacks for 2025
The Habilian Association (Families of Iranian Victims of Terrorism), an Iran-based non-governmental organization and think tank, has released its 2025 annual terrorism report documenting terrorist acts against the country and its citizens.
The findings of the report were shared during the Day of Commemoration and Respect for Victims of Terrorism ceremony, co-organized by the Habilian Association and hosted by the Institute for Political and International Studies of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The ceremony was attended by Deputy Foreign Minister Dr Saeed Khatibzadeh, Deputy Head of the Judiciary Dr Seraj, and Habilian Secretary-General Seyed Mohammad Javad Hasheminejad, alongside the families of those who lost their lives in terrorist attacks.
First published in 2019 and now in its fifth edition, the report covers the year 2025 according to Iran’s official Solar Hijri calendar (spanning 21 March 2025 to 20 March 2026). Published in Persian and English, the document provides detailed data examining the activities of non-state terrorist organizations and state-sponsored actors.
“Attacks down by half, fatalities drop 43%”
The report highlighted a significant decline in nationwide terrorism indicators compared to the previous year. The number of recorded terrorist incidents fell by 50%, dropping from 52 in 2024 to 26 in 2025, while the death toll decreased by 43%, falling from 100 to 57.
Comparing three-year trends, the report noted that while terrorist incidents rose by 62.5% in 2024 compared to 2023, 2025 saw a decrease of 18.7% compared to 2023 and 50% compared to 2024. A steady decline in fatalities was also identified. Fatalities in 2025 fell by 64.6% compared to 2023, which included the victims of the Kerman Golzar attack. However, the average fatality rate per attack increased from 1.92 in 2024 to 2.20 in 2025.
The report stated that “Iran has been a victim of terrorist violence for nearly half a century, with 23,000 people killed by terrorism, while countries hostile to Tehran apply a clear double standard by providing terrorist organizations with offices, freedom of movement, and high-level contacts.”
“Terrorist threat almost entirely confined to southeast”
One of the most critical findings of the 2025 report was the narrowing geographic distribution of terrorist acts. While incidents in 2024 spanned six provinces and two countries, all 26 attacks in 2025 took place within Iranian borders and were concentrated in just four provinces.
Sistan and Baluchestan province remained the primary centre of terrorist incidents in the country. The report stated that 84.6% of terrorist attacks (22 operations) and 86% of casualties (49 victims) in 2025 were recorded in this province. Nevertheless, the number of attacks in Sistan and Baluchestan fell 39% year-on-year from 36 to 22, representing a 17% improvement in its share of total nationwide victims. Within the province, the highest number of attacks occurred in Iranshahr, followed by Zahedan.
Elsewhere in the country, three people were killed in two attacks in Kurdistan province, one person was killed in one attack in West Azerbaijan province, and four people died in one attack in Kerman province. Central and southern provinces targeted in previous years, including Tehran, Isfahan, Fars, and Hormozgan, recorded zero terrorist incidents in 2025.
“Security forces comprise over 75% of targets”
The report analyzed the occupational and demographic profile of the victims in detail. Of the 57 people killed, 56 were male and one was female; 49 were Iranian citizens and eight were Pakistani labourers.
Law enforcement personnel formed the largest group by occupation. In 2025, victims of terrorism included 19 police officers (33%), 11 Basij members, eight foreign Pakistani workers, six conscripted soldiers, six civilians, three border guards, three security personnel, and one member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The report stated: “Security and law enforcement forces accounted for 75.4% of total casualties, a figure that reaches 88% when Pakistani workers are excluded.”
The drop in IRGC fatalities from 27 in 2024 to one in 2025 was attributed to the withdrawal of Iranian military advisers from Syria and Lebanon. The report emphasized that civilians were not selected as direct primary targets, though civilian casualties did occur, including seven-month-old Navid Baluch Shir Mohammadi and a 60-year-old Baluch woman killed in the Zahedan courthouse attack, as well as 16-year-old Mansour Layegh-Jami killed at the Fahraj checkpoint in Kerman.
“Jaish al-Adl persists under a new name”
In its group-based assessment, the report determined that Jaish al-Adl remained the most active and deadliest group in Iran in 2025. Announcing its name as the “People’s Combatants Front” in late 2025, the group carried out 14 attacks resulting in 28 deaths, accounting for 53.8% of attacks and 49.1% of fatalities nationwide. While the group’s operations declined by 48% compared to 2024, its fatality rate per incident increased. The report evaluated the group’s rebranding as “a formal maneuver aimed at evading legal restrictions, escaping terrorist watchlists, and projecting an image of organizational vitality.”
After two years of inactivity, the Kurdish separatist group PJAK carried out three attacks in Kurdistan and West Azerbaijan provinces in July and August 2025, leaving four people dead. The report noted that the group had previously been unable to operate due to the Iran-Iraq security agreement, Iranian strikes against its positions in the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government area, and its expulsion from border regions. The attacks were described either as potential retaliation for an Iranian drone strike in Penjwin or as an effort by the group to assert operational independence amid the disarmament process undertaken by the PKK in Türkiye.
Ansar al-Furqan caused five deaths across two attacks, while the Baluch Nationalist Army (BNA) killed eight Pakistani workers in a single attack in Mehrestan. Arab separatist groups in Khuzestan, numbering up to 15, carried out no armed terrorist attacks in 2025 and engaged solely in media propaganda. Unclaimed attacks totaled six incidents resulting in 12 deaths, all of which occurred in Sistan and Baluchestan.
Regarding the removal of Israel and the US from the list of direct terrorist perpetrators compared to the 2024 report, the document cited the withdrawal of military advisers from Syria and Lebanon, two conventional conflicts (the “12-Day War” and the “Ramadan War”), and the classification of assassinations of political, scientific, and military figures during the January events within the framework of conventional warfare.
“Targeted assassinations and armed assaults dominate”
The report also examined tactical shifts among terrorist organizations. In 2025, over 69% of incidents (18 cases) were direct firearm assaults, accounting for 87.7% of fatalities. Unlike 2024, no suicide bombings or “inghimasi”-style raid attacks were recorded in 2025.
Conversely, targeted assassinations of local figures resurged. The targeting of Basij commander Javad Karimkoshteh in front of a mosque in Zahedan, local IRGC member Iraj Shams Eskani in a barbershop in Rask, Shehr-e Deraz police station chief Mahmoud Haghighat in Iranshahr, and tribal leader Mohammadreza Shahouzehi’s convoy in Eshkelabad were characterized as a strategy to weaken local security personnel and community leaders in border districts. The report noted that intelligence operations, including the “Martyrs of Security” drills and the seizure of 25 kilograms of explosives in Chabahar, foiled multiple planned attacks.
Chronology of 2025-2026 terrorist incidents
The monthly breakdown of incidents and details in the report were listed as follows:
- 27 March 2025: Master Sergeant Hossein Teymourpour was killed and two police officers were injured in an attack on a Police Station 12 patrol vehicle in Iranshahr. Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility.
- 12 April 2025: Eight Pakistani workers had their hands and feet bound and were shot dead at close range during a raid on an auto repair shop in the village of Hizabad-e Pain, Mehrestan county, Sistan and Baluchestan province. Five victims were identified as Delshad, Naeem, Jafar, Danish, and Nasser. The Baluch Nationalist Army (BNA) claimed responsibility.
- 18 April 2025: Jaish al-Adl team leader Vali Mohammad Shahbakhsh was killed during the “Martyrs of Security” operation in the Qurin district of Zahedan; Quds Base Basij member Eshagh Mokhtari was killed during the operation.
- 4 May 2025: Gunfire targeted Police Station 11 patrol vehicles in Iranshahr, wounding four police officers; three attackers were captured. Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility.
- 17 May 2025: An explosive device planted along a police patrol route in Saravan was defused. Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility.
- 11 July 2025: Police officers Hossein Jafarniya and Hamidreza Mirshahi, along with conscript Abbas Beyraghifard, were killed in an attack on a police patrol in Chabahar; one attacker was killed. Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility.
- 21 July 2025: Border Guard Senior Master Sergeant Sina Sattarvand was killed in a clash in the Baneh border area of Kurdistan province. PJAK operatives reportedly carried out the attack.
- 22 July 2025: Captain Mahmoud Motahhari died after gunfire was opened on a patrol vehicle from another car in Saravan. Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility.
- 25 July 2025: Basij member Meysam Kabiri was killed and one person was injured when PJAK members opened fire on a military outpost in Aglan village, Sardasht county, West Azerbaijan province.
- 26 July 2025: Armed assailants attempting to storm the Zahedan Courthouse using grenades and firearms killed six people: seven-month-old infant Navid Baluch Shir Mohammadi, a 60-year-old Baluch woman, courthouse protection unit Lieutenants Hossein Rafienasab and Hosseinali Nouri, and conscripts Nima Karami and Ahmad Abdollahi; 22 people were injured. Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility.
- 27 July 2025: Basij commander Javad Karimkoshteh was shot dead while on guard duty at the entrance of a mosque in the Shirabad district of Zahedan. Ansar al-Furqan claimed the assassination.
- 15 August 2025: Sergeant Ramin Sadeghi was killed and one security officer was wounded in an attack on a patrol vehicle in Iranshahr. Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility.
- 22 August 2025: Five police officers were killed when gunfire targeted two Daman Police Station vehicles on the Iranshahr-Khash road: Master Sergeants Mohammadreza Rahimi and Mohammad Nowrouzi, Sergeant Hasan Tavakkoli, conscript Hadi Rouyaei, and Captain Gholamreza Vahdani. Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility.
- 6 September 2025: Local IRGC member Iraj Shams Eskani was shot dead in a barbershop in Pishin, Rask county. Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility.
- 16 September 2025: Younes Sayyad Arbabi and Ebrahim Piri were killed in an attack on a Sib and Suran county police vehicle on the Khash-Zahedan road; critically injured Sib and Suran Police Chief Colonel Ebrahim Fazilati died on 18 September. Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility.
- 18 September 2025: Local Basij member and community figure Reza Azerkish (Shahlibor) was shot dead in Iranshahr. The attack was unclaimed.
- 2 October 2025: Gunfire targeting a motorcycle police patrol in Qasr-e Qand county wounded one officer and killed a passing civilian. The perpetrators were not identified.
- 1 November 2025: In an ambush on Shahouzehi tribal leader Mohammadreza Shahouzehi’s vehicle at the Eskelabad area along the Khash-Zahedan road, local Sunni Basij members Esmail Shaverzi and Mokhtar Shahouzehi died the same day, while Yaghoub Fard Salarzehi died on 12 November. The attack was unclaimed.
- 1 November 2025: Security officer Mohammad (Javad) Siahani was killed by gunfire from an unplated vehicle on the Iranshahr Bampur-Delgan road.
- 30 November 2025: An attack on an IRGC Quds Base patrol vehicle in the Lar border area of Zahedan killed IRGC serviceman Sajjad Marashi and Basij members Mohammad Bezzi, Alireza Nasirabadi, and Alireza Piri. The attack was claimed by Jaish al-Adl’s new structure, the “People’s Combatants Front.”
- 16 December 2025: A night attack on the Fahraj checkpoint in Kerman province killed police officer Saeed Pourhadi, security personnel Morad Salehi and Isa Barsam, and 16-year-old civilian Mansour Layegh-Jami. Ansar al-Furqan claimed responsibility.
- 16 December 2025: Gunfire was directed at police from two vehicles in Iranshahr; the attackers fled without causing security casualties.
- 7 January 2026: Shehr-e Deraz police station chief Mahmoud Haghighat was shot dead in Iranshahr. The assassination was claimed by the People’s Combatants Front (Jaish al-Adl).
- 9 February 2026: Twenty-year-old Basij member Iman Shahnavazi was wounded in a shooting targeting a vehicle in front of the special forces building on Imam Khomeini Street in Khash county and died several days later. The People’s Combatants Front claimed responsibility.
- 3 March 2026: Conscript Amir Mohammad Karimi was killed and three people were wounded when gunfire struck a patrol vehicle in Zahedan. The People’s Combatants Front claimed responsibility.
- 16 March 2026: Six people were killed when a police patrol vehicle was attacked in Taftan county: police officers Sajjad Batakva, Mohammad Javad Ensaf, Hamidreza Shahraki, and Alireza Pourbagher, conscript Alireza Sergezi, and an unidentified civilian. No group claimed responsibility.
Middle East
Israel opposition seeks Netanyahu probe over 7 October call logs
Avi Gil, the former military secretary to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has claimed that attempts were made within the Prime Minister’s Office to alter the timestamps of official call logs from the morning of 7 October 2023.
Following these disclosures, the Israeli opposition petitioned Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, demanding the opening of a criminal investigation into Netanyahu and his staff.
Gil, who served as military secretary at the time of the attack, said in an interview with the Israel Hayom newspaper and Channel 12 television that Netanyahu’s chief of staff, Tzachi Braverman, attempted to alter the timing of a critical conversation held that morning.
Arguing that the initiative formed part of a “criminal pattern of behaviour”, Gil stated that he had remained silent until now in anticipation of a state commission of inquiry, but noted that what had been conveyed to the public did not reflect the truth.
Braverman is known to have been questioned and investigated by police over fraud and forgery allegations on suspicion of illegally tampering with official protocols.
Claim that official call time was shifted back
Gil recounted that on the morning of 7 October 2023, he received a call from the office of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar at 06:12, and during a conversation with Bar over a secure line at 06:17, he was informed that SIM cards had been activated in Gaza and that Hamas operatives had moved underground.
Stating that he first telephoned Netanyahu at 06:29 to wake him, Gil noted that he informed the Prime Minister that Hamas had launched a surprise attack and that he was continuing to gather information.
Gil stated that during a second telephone call at 06:40, he conveyed to Netanyahu the message: “We are at war.”
The former military secretary said that months later, in January, a stenographer approached him and disclosed that Braverman had asked her to alter the time of the second conversation in the official records from 06:40 to 06:29.
Gil noted that this step may have been intended to create the impression that Netanyahu had been issuing instructions from the very first moment of the attack, or to lay the groundwork for the thesis that intelligence had been withheld from the Prime Minister by fostering the perception that the information conveyed in the second call was already known during the first.
Stating that he noticed Netanyahu’s team collecting documents in an unusual manner two weeks after the events began, Gil said that, suspecting minutes were being falsified, he approached Attorney General Baharav-Miara and requested clarification of the rules. Gil pointed out that any prospective commission of inquiry should not content itself with written records alone and must examine the original audio recordings.
Responding to a question regarding allegations that Egypt had issued a warning prior to the attack, Gil stated that he had no knowledge of such a message, but noted that an Egyptian intelligence aircraft had landed in Israel in late September and remained for more than an hour.
Remarking that no aircraft arrives without reason, Gil suggested that the officials who met the delegation or received the message were continuing to conceal it.
Gil also asserted that the security documentation Netanyahu submitted to the state comptroller was incomplete, noting that the document did not reflect the whole truth.
Likud rejects claims: “Gil did not wake PM in time”
The ruling Likud Party rejected the allegations, stating that the claims were politically motivated propaganda targeting Netanyahu and the party.
In a post on his social media account, Netanyahu argued that the opposition’s campaign of lies could not alter the truth.
Likud’s statement alleged that Gil was attempting to cover up his own negligence, claiming that despite an alert message received from the military secretariat’s intelligence officer at 03:55 on the morning of 7 October, Gil took no action and failed to wake the Prime Minister in time.
The party maintained that had Netanyahu been informed in time, developments would have unfolded differently.
Opposition levels treason accusations
Opposition parties, meanwhile, called for legal steps against Netanyahu and his team to be accelerated following the statements.
The Yashar Party, led by Gadi Eisenkot, cited Ronen Bergman’s investigation in Yedioth Ahronoth alongside Gil’s statements to call on the Attorney General to open a criminal probe. The party accused Netanyahu of concealing critical assessments regarding the strengthening of Hamas and its ties to the Iranian axis from the state comptroller.
Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman said Attorney General Baharav-Miara must immediately launch an investigation into Netanyahu and his aides on allegations of treason and conspiracy.
Liberman also called on the Chief of the General Staff to block attempts to use the military for political ends.
The Democrats Party leader, Yair Golan, described Gil’s testimony as historic, noting that responsibility for the events in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage could not be concealed.
Golan demanded that all original audio recordings and documents within the Prime Minister’s Office be placed under immediate protective custody.
The leadership of the October 7 Council also stated that Gil’s remarks refuted the government’s arguments that it was unaware of the situation prior to the attack.
Middle East
Eisenkot ties Syria pact to withdrawal of Russian and Turkish forces
Gadi Eisenkot, Benjamin Netanyahu’s fiercest challenger in this month’s elections, has conditioned any agreement with Syria on the complete withdrawal of Turkish and Russian forces.
In an extensive interview with The Times of Israel (ToI), the leader of the Yashar Party and former chief of staff said it was necessary to take advantage of the “fluid situation” in Syria.
Contending that Syria’s transitional leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is “originally a very extreme person, an ISIS member,” Eisenkot remarked: “I have no illusions about him; together with the Americans operating in Syria, I killed many people from his organisation.”
Nevertheless, the opposition leader emphasised that a crucial question must be posed:
“Is there an opportunity to take the 1974 Kissinger interim agreements and significantly upgrade them, with tight security arrangements that will ultimately bring about the withdrawal of foreign forces from Syria?”
Asked by the reporter whether this included Israel withdrawing from Mount Hermon and key strategic positions in Syria, Eisenkot replied:
“The fundamental condition is the complete expulsion of the Turks and the Russians from the area. As for Mount Hermon and the relevant security arrangements, these must be negotiated.”
Arguing that Israel must speak from a “position of strength” backed by “unshakeable American guarantees,” Eisenkot added: “There must be an American protective umbrella, oversight, and commitment that will enable Israel to take calculated risks.”
Pointing to the “extremely problematic situation” created by Netanyahu over the past three years, the Yashar leader described it as an “ever-widening and dangerous gap between American interests in the Middle East and Israel’s interests.”
Noting that Israel shares “deep common interests” with the US, Eisenkot listed them as: “maintaining stability in the Middle East, strengthening the moderate Sunni camp, weakening the radical Shiite axis, weakening the fundamentalist Sunni axis, and subsequently achieving economic prosperity in the region.”
Stating that a “strong Israel as a strategic asset” for the Middle East is also an asset for the US, the Israeli politician emphasised his support for moving towards the establishment of a “NATO of Sunni states.” He stressed that Israel could make major contributions in early-warning intelligence and defence systems, adding:
“We have proven this capability. Today, there are Arab countries in the Gulf that quietly receive Israeli protection. I also connect this to the broader peace effort that Israeli leaders have unfortunately stopped talking about. We want peace.”
Within this framework, Eisenkot noted the necessity of strengthening already signed peace treaties: “These must never be taken for granted, as there is also deep concern that these agreements could slide backwards. Therefore, we must strengthen our relations with Egypt, Jordan, and the signatory countries of the Abraham Accords, and actively involve other countries in the process. I believe there may also be an opportunity regarding Lebanon.”
Contending that Netanyahu’s “blatant foolishness and dreadful political-strategic judgment” had dragged Israel to rock bottom, the opposition leader pointed out that 12 countries are currently waiting to impose sanctions on Israel.
“Even the Americans have begun considering the possibility of imposing sanctions on official Israeli actors in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank],” Eisenkot said.
Noting that the steps he would take in the West Bank would not be a political gesture aimed at bringing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords, but would be done “entirely in Israel’s interests,” Eisenkot said he would improve security conditions in the region, prevent the burning of Palestinian homes and villages by extremist Jewish settlers, and intervene with an “iron fist” against anyone acting outside the law.
“That is exactly how I acted throughout my military service. [Those attacks] did not happen when I was Chief of Staff,” Eisenkot said, referring to assaults by illegal Jewish settlers on Palestinian villages in the West Bank.
The Yashar leader argued that anyone seeking to establish full sovereignty over the West Bank and incorporate another 2.8 million Palestinians into Israel is “endangering the Zionist project and the Jewish demographic majority.”
Addressing Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul, Eisenkot said: “Anyone who seeks to weaken the Supreme Court and crush the judiciary is endangering democracy.”
Accusing Netanyahu of desiring “endless wars,” the opposition leader said: “We will change this through a rational government. Netanyahu’s government is pursuing an entirely irrational policy: it incites conflict solely to consolidate its domestic political base. For this single purpose, it clashes with everyone.”
Middle East
CIA report warns Israel faces growing risk of civil conflict
Deepening political fractures, economic strains, and societal fault lines in Israel are confronting the country with the potential for civil conflict and the breakdown of state mechanisms.
According to a report by Drop Site News citing two US sources, these findings are detailed in a classified Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) assessment drafted in August.
The report by Aída Chávez notes that the assessment, titled “Fracturing from Within”, was authored by experts within the CIA’s Red Cell unit, which is tasked with examining alternative and contrarian scenarios.
The CIA declined to answer questions regarding the assessment, which was compiled by combining open-source data with US intelligence holdings.
The report emphasises that the assessment focuses solely on Israel’s Jewish population, excluding from its analysis the country’s Palestinian citizens, who make up approximately 20% of the population.
It notes that Amnesty International and various human rights organisations characterise the practices endured by this segment of the population as part of a broad apartheid system.
The report outlines multilayered risks accumulating across the country ahead of the 27 October elections.
These factors include economic bottlenecks fuelled by surging military expenditures, heavily armed soldiers returning from protracted combat with severe psychological trauma, escalating settler violence in the occupied West Bank, and a constitutional crisis sparked by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to retain power.
Speaking to Drop Site News, an intelligence source pointed out that the team responsible for the report comprises experts deeply familiar with the Israeli landscape, stating: “This is not an imaginary ‘what if’ scenario. Considering the upcoming elections and divisions in Israel, we must take seriously its findings that the country is only one spark away from real civil conflict.”
One of the sharpest points of tension in Israeli domestic politics involves mandatory military service exemptions granted to ultra-Orthodox men. The divide is widening between the ultra-Orthodox community, which continues to receive state subsidies while enjoying sweeping draft exemptions, and reservists being repeatedly mobilised to the front lines.
The rationale cited by religious leaders for rejecting military service is not opposition to war, but the argument that Torah study and religious life would be threatened.
A deteriorating economic landscape is also aggravating pressure on households. According to data, basic food prices, including fresh fruits and vegetables, have surged by 9.5% over the past two years, reaching record highs.
The report states that the majority of domestic opposition to Netanyahu focuses not on violence directed against Palestinians, but on how these policies are executed and on the security failures of 7 October.
Major Zionist parties remain divided over coalition strategies, while opinion polls indicate that neither the governing nor the opposition blocs can attain the 61-seat majority required to form a government.
Recalling historical eras in which traumatised, armed veterans coincided with intense political division, one consulted source cited the Freikorps units in post-First World War Germany.
The source remarked that while modern Israel is not identical to interwar Germany, certain parallels can be observed.
The CIA assessment also considers Israel’s mounting international isolation and the erosion of US support as factors that could accelerate collapse dynamics.
Israeli officials are reported to be concerned that reliance on billions of dollars in direct US military aid may prove unsustainable amid weakening political consensus.
Spring data from the Pew Research Center indicates that 60% of Americans view Israel unfavourably, up from 53% a year earlier.
The report projects that foreign technology and artificial intelligence investments could be withdrawn if the domestic crisis deepens. It underscores that such an outcome would further destabilise under-pressure economic fundamentals.
Additionally, regional countries could question the strategic value of normalisation processes, while Hamas or Hezbollah might exploit internal vulnerabilities within the country.
Intelligence sources emphasise that the assessment deliberately adopted the term “civil conflict”, warning that the compounding array of domestic pressures may ultimately prove impossible to contain through military means.
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