Diplomacy
Recognition diplomacy for TRNC begins with Turkic states
Having struggled for recognition as an independent state for 39 years, the TRNC (Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus) has crossed a significant threshold by becoming an observer member of the OTS (Organization of the Turkic States). “It is of great importance that a strong coalition is formed by intensive cooperation with the Turkic World and that the policy toward the recognition of the TRNC is actively put into practice,” says Prof. Hüseyin Işıksal.
Following the 2017 breakdown of the Crans Montana negotiations, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), which has existed as an independent state despite all embargoes for 39 years, has based its policy on sovereign equality and equal international status. The TRNC’s unnamed recognition policy since 2017 was concretized by the address of President Tayyip Erdoğan to the UN Security Council (UN). With the TRNC’s admittance as an observer member of the OTS, a significant milestone was reached in the struggle being carried out in this context. Then, critical steps were taken. Following Gambia Vice President Badara Joof’s visit to the island to meet with TRNC President Ersin Tatar, a joint meeting between the ruling parties of Turkiye, Azerbaijan, and TRNC was held in Cyprus. Even though there is still a long way before Cyprus to go to be recognized as an independent state, patient and determined struggle is not alien to the Turkish Cypriots.
At a press conference on 19 December titled “Three States One Nation”, AK Party Deputy Chairman Numan Kurtulmuş (right), New Azerbaijan Party Deputy Chairman Tahir Budagov (left) and TRNC National Unity Party Secretary General Oğuzhan Hasipoğlu. PHOTO: Ali Ruhluel/AA
‘Doing the same thing and expecting different results is pointless’
International Relations and Diplomacy Special Advisor to the President of the TRNC, and Member of the Negotiation Committee, Prof. Hüseyin Işıksal talks to Harici about the roadmap to be followed by the TRNC in the diplomacy of recognition as well as the role that this new strategy will play in the ongoing conflict over the Eastern Mediterranean.
- Do the efforts to be recognized as an independent state indicate that a new UN negotiation process based on the “one state” model of Turkiye and the TRNC is off the table? Or will the new recognition initiative be carried out in tandem with the UN negotiation process?
In the presidential candidacy declaration titled “A New Era, A New Vision” in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus elections held in October 2020, Ersin Tatar stated that any viable solution for Cyprus should be predicated on the presence of two sovereign and equal states. He appealed for the Turkish Cypriot people’s support, saying that a solution based on federation was exhausted at the time. By freely voting for Mr. Tatar as President, the Turkish Cypriot people have indicated their support for this vision-based approach.
The facts on the ground in Cyprus demonstrate that the Turkish and Greek people, who share a troubled history with power asymmetry and have different races, languages, religions, cultures, and lifestyles, would not be able to coexist peacefully under a federal solution. This reveals that a federal solution would be short-lived even if this is attempted through the use of a coerced treaty. In the words of Albert Einstein, ‘insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.’ The insistence on a federal solution by the Greek Cypriot side will waste time and perpetuate the status quo, which harms all parties. It is now apparent which model cannot be applied in Cyprus.
In this context, the negotiation committee headed by TRNC President Ersin Tatar, of which I am a part, presented new solution proposals to the United Nations at the 5+UN informal negotiations held in Geneva on 27-29 April 2021. Accordingly, the committee proposed that a fair, realistic, and sustainable agreement honoring the Turkish Cypriot people’s long-devoted struggle for existence and statehood can only be reached by a collaboration of two states with sovereign equity and equal international status. The Turkish Cypriot side has always stated that formal negotiations can only begin on condition that the Turkish Cypriot people’s vested sovereign equity and equal international status have been confirmed. As things stand, compromising our statehood in no way will we confidently continue along this path open to reconciliation and cooperation.
‘No letup in the pace of struggle’
- The TRNC has taken a significant step forward with its admittance to the OTS as an observer member. How will the following step be carried out? Is there a roadmap for this new recognition diplomacy?
President Tayyip Erdoğan’s historic call at the 77th General Assembly of the United Nations address to all world leaders for the formal recognition of the TRNC is crucial. It marks a new landmark in the history of the Turkish Cypriot people. By making this call, Mr. Erdogan has done more than merely protect the Turkish Cypriots and their legitimate independence; he has also become their voice at the United Nations, where they are not allowed to be represented.
Soon after this call, at the 9th Organization of the Turkic States Leaders’ Summit held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, our state was unanimously admitted as an observer member for the first time under its constitutional name, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. It is a historical step toward international recognition. From this moment forward, we will no longer be subjected to procedures that would keep us in the status of minority.
Compared to many globally recognized states, fulfilling all the conditions of statehood with its full-fledged institutions and organizations, the TRNC is much more socio-economically and politically advanced. The TRNC is slowly yet gradually gaining acceptance from the international community. These days when we celebrate the 39th anniversary of our Republic, we will not rest on our laurels and continue our noble struggle with the tremendous momentum that this positive development encourages. It is of great importance to form a solid cooperation under the leadership of Turkiye with the Turkic world sharing the same values with the TRNC and to vigorously implement the policy for the recognition of the TRNC. The decision of the Organization of Turkic States to admit the TRNC as an observer member will also help to eliminate the unfair imbalance of status in Cyprus and ensure a just reconciliation based on sovereign equality on the island.
‘Geopolitical equation may shift in the Eastern Mediterranean’
- Is the current polarization in the Eastern Mediterranean to be affected by Turkiye’s “normalization” measures towards Egypt? How do you see the situation developing in that part of the world?
If Turkiye’s “normalization” efforts toward Egypt pan out, we can expect the geopolitical equation in the Eastern Mediterranean to shift dramatically. Recently discovered hydrocarbon reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean have opened up new possibilities for regional collaboration. However, the maximalist demands and ambitions of the Cypriot Greek and Greek sides have had a disastrous economic impact on other coastal European and Mediterranean states. Should the maritime zone issues in the Eastern Mediterranean be settled fairly, the region will face even more significant political challenges. Such a great upheaval will benefit no party.
The main challenge here is that Turkiye, which has the longest coastline in the Eastern Mediterranean and is barely 70 km away from the island of Cyprus, is being attempted to be left out of the political equation in the region. Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration’s (GCA) primary foreign policy move is to immediately appeal to and forge an alliance with a country whenever it has a problem, no matter how negligible, with Turkiye. Greece and the Greek Cypriot Administration mainly intend to confine Turkiye to the Gulf of Antalya by reducing Turkiye’s Exclusive Economic Zone by 3.5 times with the so-called Sevilla map they have created. All regional states, particularly Israel and Egypt, will benefit significantly if they sign maritime authorization agreements with Turkiye. I believe that the ‘containment’ strategy of the Greek-Cypriot Greek duo will fail, and the geopolitical equation in the Eastern Mediterranean may entirely change with the new strategic relations Turkiye has established with the regional countries.
The administration of US President Donald Trump has resumed shipments of certain types of weapons to Ukraine after a one-week pause.
According to reports from Reuters and the Associated Press (AP), citing sources familiar with the matter, Kyiv has once again begun receiving 155mm artillery shells and high-precision Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) missiles.
The exact timing of the shipment resumption and the quantity of ammunition sent are unknown.
Previously, the US had frozen the transfer of 8,400 155mm artillery shells, 142 Hellfire missiles, 252 missiles for HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, and 30 interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems.
Pentagon’s decision caught Trump by surprise
The Pentagon suspended military aid to Ukraine in early July. According to sources speaking to CNN, Trump had instructed Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to conduct an audit of weapon stockpiles, and Hegseth, without informing the White House, halted all arms shipments to Ukraine during the audit.
Hegseth’s decision caught Trump by surprise. The White House announced that it had not issued an order to stop military aid to Kyiv.
Following a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump promised to provide more weapons to Kyiv and instructed the Pentagon to consider sending an additional Patriot air defense system.
The US President stated, “They are being hit very hard, very hard. So we will look into this matter.”
As noted by The Wall Street Journal, if the US sends a new air defense system to Kyiv, it would be the first time Trump has approved a new shipment of heavy weaponry to Ukraine. Until now, Washington had only continued shipments approved during the tenure of former President Joe Biden.
US quadruples Patriot procurement
Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, the US military plans to allocate more than $1.3 billion for the procurement of missiles for Patriot air defense systems in the new fiscal year starting October 1.
The report stated that the Pentagon has “quietly” quadrupled the total planned procurement volume of these air defense missiles.
According to the report, a group of senior military officials responsible for determining defense needs revised the procurement parameters in April, increasing the planned number of interceptor missiles from 3,376 to 13,773.
Bloomberg emphasized that this sharp increase in procurement volume highlights the US military’s growing reliance on PAC-3 MSE missiles in particular.
This situation also aligns with the efforts of the US and its allies to strengthen their air and missile defense systems.
For example, Ukraine relies heavily on Patriot batteries and the missiles supplied for these systems to repel intense Russian attacks on its cities.
According to budget records, the US had purchased 2,047 of these missiles by the start of the 2024 fiscal year. An additional 230 were acquired in 2024, and 214 in 2025.
For the year 2026, $945.9 million has been requested for the procurement of 224 new interceptor missiles. Of this amount, $549.6 million will come from the base budget, and $396.3 million will be covered under the “Atlantic Resolve” program, which aims to strengthen NATO’s defense in Europe.
Kremlin: Military aid will not end the war
The Kremlin has stated that the continuation of military aid to Ukraine will not contribute to ending the war.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, “It will take time to definitively clarify which specific shipments, and in what quantities, will continue to arrive in Ukraine from the US.”
However, according to sources close to the Kremlin speaking to The New York Times, Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that Ukraine’s defense could collapse in the coming months and refuses to halt the conflict without significant concessions from Kyiv.
The news site Axios reported that during his phone call with Zelenskyy, Trump promised to urgently send ten interceptor missiles for Patriot systems to Kyiv.
Before this call, Trump had met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Merz had called for the resumption of missile shipments and expressed readiness to purchase additional Patriot batteries from the US to transfer to Ukraine.
According to sources, although no concrete agreement was reached, the matter continues to be discussed.
In a statement to the press at the White House, Trump also confirmed his intention to increase arms shipments to Kyiv, stating, “They must be able to defend themselves. They are taking very heavy blows right now.”
The Pentagon also confirmed that, on Trump’s instructions, additional “defensive weapons” will be sent so that Ukraine can maintain its positions until a lasting peace is achieved.
According to customs and shipping records, an extraordinary flow of antimony—a metal used in batteries, chips, and flame retardants—began entering the US from Thailand and Mexico after China banned shipments to the US last year. Records obtained by Reuters indicate that at least one Chinese company is involved in this trade, revealing how US buyers of critical minerals are circumventing China’s export ban.
China dominates the supply of antimony, as well as gallium and germanium, which are crucial for telecommunications, semiconductors, and military technology. On December 3, Beijing banned the export of these minerals to the US following pressure from Washington on China’s chip sector.
Trade data suggests that US shipments are being rerouted through third countries, a situation that Chinese officials have acknowledged. This assessment was confirmed by executives from two US companies, who told Reuters they have sourced restricted minerals from China in recent months.
According to US customs data, the US imported 3,834 metric tons of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico between December and April. This volume is nearly greater than the total from the previous three years combined. Meanwhile, Chinese customs data shows that Thailand and Mexico have become top-three destinations for China’s antimony exports this year. Neither country ranked in the top 10 in 2023, the last full year before Beijing imposed the restrictions.
According to the consulting firm RFC Ambrian, there is only one antimony smelter across both Thailand and Mexico, with the Mexican facility having reopened in April. Neither country mines significant quantities of the metal. Despite higher prices, US imports of antimony, gallium, and germanium this year are on pace to meet or exceed pre-ban levels.
Ram Ben Tzion, co-founder and CEO of the digital shipment inspection platform Publican, stated that while there is clear evidence of transshipment, the trade data does not allow for the identification of the specific companies involved. “This is a pattern we’ve seen, and it’s consistent,” he told Reuters, adding that Chinese companies are “extremely creative in circumventing regulations.”
In May, China’s Ministry of Commerce stated that some unspecified foreign entities were “collaborating with domestic smugglers” to bypass export restrictions, declaring that halting such activities was essential for national security. The ministry did not respond to Reuters‘ questions regarding the shift in trade flows since December. The US Department of Commerce, Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce, and Mexico’s Ministry of Economy also did not respond to similar inquiries.
US law does not prohibit American buyers from purchasing antimony, gallium, or germanium of Chinese origin. Chinese firms are permitted to ship these minerals to countries other than the US if they possess the necessary licenses.
Levi Parker, CEO and founder of the US-based company Gallant Metals, told Reuters that he sources approximately 200 kg of gallium from China each month. He declined to identify the parties involved, citing potential repercussions. The process begins with purchasing agents in China who procure the materials from manufacturers. A shipping company then relabels the packages as iron, zinc, or art supplies and routes them through another Asian country.
Parker noted that these workarounds are neither perfect nor cheap. He explained that he would like to import 500 kg regularly, but larger shipments risk scrutiny, prompting Chinese logistics firms to be “very careful” due to the associated risks.
US-based BlackRock, the world’s largest investment company, has reportedly halted its efforts to find investors for a planned reconstruction fund for Ukraine.
According to a report by Bloomberg that cited sources familiar with the matter, the decision is driven by uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine.
The fund was scheduled to be unveiled at a conference on Ukraine’s reconstruction on July 10-11, an event attended by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Sources indicated that the initiative was close to securing initial support from entities linked to the governments of Germany, Italy, and Poland.
However, with the possibility of Trump returning to the White House in January, BlackRock has decided to temporarily suspend its discussions with institutional investors, citing uncertainty about future support for Ukraine.
Alternative plan from France
Bloomberg has also learned that France is now developing an alternative plan, which includes creating a new fund to replace the initiative that BlackRock has suspended. The effectiveness of this new plan without US participation, however, remains a significant question.
A BlackRock representative stated that the company completed its pro bono advisory work for the Ukraine project in 2024 and currently has “no active commitments” to the Ukrainian government.
“The only discussions that influence BlackRock’s decisions are those the firm has with its clients,” the representative emphasized.
The fund’s $15 billion target
BlackRock Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand, who was previously involved in the negotiations, had announced plans to attract at least $500 million from governments, international development banks, and other public donors, along with approximately $2 billion from private investors.
According to Hildebrand, uniting investors under a single consortium would have enabled the direction of at least $15 billion in equity and debt investments toward Ukraine’s reconstruction.
The World Bank estimates that the total cost for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction exceeds €500 billion. Rebuilding the country’s port infrastructure alone is projected to require at least €1 billion.
Trump administration resumes weapon shipments to Ukraine after pause
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