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Diplomacy

Schiller Institute warns of nuclear war, calls for new global security architecture

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At a conference organized by the Schiller Institute in Berlin, a warning was issued that the world is facing the threat of a total nuclear war. Speakers pointed to the collapse of the unipolar order and the rise of a multipolar world led by BRICS, emphasizing that the only way out is a new global architecture that considers the security and development interests of all nations. The conference called for cooperation between BRICS and Europe on projects for Africa’s development, such as the “Oasis Plan” and “Agenda 2063.”

During the international conference held by the Schiller Institute in Berlin, it was warned that the world is on the brink of a total nuclear war and that history is approaching an irreversible point.

The event, titled “Cooperation Between BRICS and Europe to Implement the Oasis Plan and Agenda 2063 for Africa,” addressed the collapse of the unipolar world order and the rise of a multipolar world led by the BRICS nations.

Politicians, academics, and former intelligence officials who spoke at the conference stressed that the only way out of the current geopolitical tensions is to build a new global architecture that respects the security and development interests of all countries.

In her opening speech, Helga Zepp-LaRouche, founder and president of the Schiller Institute, stated that the world has never been closer to a “punctum saliens,” or “turning point,” where a global nuclear war catastrophe could become inevitable.

Zepp-LaRouche argued that the roots of the current crisis date back to 1971, when US President Nixon dismantled the Bretton Woods system, transitioning to unregulated monetary policies. She said that predictions that this process would lead to a new depression, fascism, and world war are being realized today.

“It is possible to intervene in history by having a good plan and mobilizing enough power to implement it,” said Zepp-LaRouche, calling for action against pessimism.

‘Russian-German reconciliation is shattered’

In one of the conference’s most striking speeches, analyst Dmitriy Trenin from the Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics stated that Europe has become the “main adversary” for Russia in the proxy war in Ukraine.

Trenin argued that this situation emerged as Russia began to gain the upper hand in Ukraine and the US, under a potential Trump administration, shifted its focus to Asia. “Europe is trying to consolidate itself as a power center by casting Russia in the role of the enemy at the gate,” he said.

Calling the assumption that Russia would attack Europe “absurd,” Trenin emphasized that the current situation is far more dangerous than the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.

“The Russian-German reconciliation no longer exists; it is shattered, and this is a tragedy. This crisis occurred due to preventable steps, such as NATO’s expansion towards Ukraine, the disregard for the Minsk Agreement, and the sabotage of the peace draft in Istanbul. If we do not make a joint effort at the 11th hour, this crisis will not stop until it is staring into the abyss,” he stated.

The rise of China and the new world order

Chinese academic Professor Zhang Weiwei noted that the world is already multipolar and that the GDP of the BRICS countries, based on purchasing power parity, has surpassed that of the G7.

Criticizing Europe for its dependence on the US and its “deep mistrust” of China, Zhang said, “Europe talks, China does.”

Highlighting China’s successes in areas such as poverty alleviation, infrastructure projects in Africa, and the greening of the Taklamakan Desert, Zhang said that Chinese philosophy is based on the principle of “unite and prosper,” contrary to the West’s “divide and rule” approach.

“Western philosophy says ‘friend or foe,’ while Chinese philosophy says ‘friend or potential friend.’ That is what makes all the difference,” Zhang remarked.

‘A new scramble for Africa is underway’

African speakers, who joined the conference via video message, expressed both hopes and concerns about the continent’s future.

Dr. Naledi Pandor, President of the Nelson Mandela Foundation, said that this conference brought the voice of freedom, justice, and peace to Berlin, in contrast to the historic “Berlin Conference” that endorsed colonialism.

Stating that Africa believes in a multipolar world and a reformed United Nations, Pandor emphasized that the continent’s development plan, “Agenda 2063,” and the Schiller Institute’s “Oasis Plan” complement each other. She stressed that the global community must shift from a conflict-oriented agenda to a development-oriented one.

Kenyan academic Patrick Lumumba took a more critical stance, stating that a “new scramble” is taking place in Africa involving many actors such as the US, China, Russia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.

“This situation is reminiscent of the Berlin Conference of 1884. The only difference is that the language is sweeter. Africa is open to manipulation due to its internal divisions and weak institutions,” Lumumba assessed.

Questioning whether multipolarity would mean replacing old hegemons with new ones, Lumumba asked, “Who will be the hegemon within BRICS? China? India? Will African countries be pawns again?”

The war lobby and a call to action

Meanwhile, former CIA analyst Ray McGovern described the structures fueling war in the US as the “Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think Tank Complex (MICIMATT).”

McGovern stated that the cornerstone of this structure is the media, noting that corporations profiting from war control the media, which is why alternative media networks are of vital importance.

“We must remember the Noah principle: No more prizes for predicting rain. The prizes go to those who build arks,” McGovern said, emphasizing that being informed is not enough; action is required.

Throughout the conference, the prevailing message was that hope should not be lost despite the current dangers and that active efforts must be made for peace.

Helga Zepp-LaRouche concluded her speech with quotes from German poet Friedrich Schiller’s piece Deutsche Größe, stating, “The true victory is not to conquer with the sword, but to liberate minds with the lightning of truth,” and called for a struggle for justice and freedom of reason for all peoples.

Diplomacy

Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide

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British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.

According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.

This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.

In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.

The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.

The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”

The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.

More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.

The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.

According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.

The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.

The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.

The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.

Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.

Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.

The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.

Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.

If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.

Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.

Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).

Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.

Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.

Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.

Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”

Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.

Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.

In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.

Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”

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Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution

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Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.

The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.

According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.

“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.

Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.

“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.

Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.

The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.

In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.

According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.

Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.

On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.

According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.

Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.

Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.

In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.

Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.

In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.

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