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SIPRI: Global arms trade shifts as Europe rearms and Russian exports collapse

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Europe has more than tripled its arms imports over the last five years, positioning the continent at the vanguard of global military procurement as the United States cements its status as the world’s preeminent weapons supplier. According to the “2025 Trends in International Arms Transfers” report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the 2021–2025 period saw European nations drive a historic surge in demand, effectively reshaping the hierarchy of the global defense trade.

The ranking of the top 10 arms-exporting nations over this five-year period is as follows:

1. United States: Washington maintained its undisputed leadership with a 42% share of global arms exports, supplying 99 nations. Its reach was truly global, providing hardware to 35 countries in Europe, 18 in the Americas, 17 each in Africa and the Asia-Oceania region, and 12 in the Middle East. The primary recipients of US weaponry were Saudi Arabia (12% of total US exports), Ukraine (9.4%), and Japan (8.9%). While overall US arms exports grew by 27% over the period, shipments specifically destined for Europe skyrocketed by 217%.

Peter Wezeman, a senior researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Program, noted that the US has “further solidified its dominance as a weapons supplier, even in an increasingly multipolar world.” Wezeman emphasized that the US provides advanced military capabilities to its clients, while Washington continues to leverage arms exports as a pivotal tool of foreign policy and a primary vehicle for strengthening its national defense industrial base.

France gains momentum as intra-European exports explode

2. France: Reaching a 9.8% share of global supply, France exported weaponry to 63 countries. Its most significant clients were India (24% of French exports), Egypt (11%), and Greece (10%). Notably, French arms exports within Europe surged by 452% during this window.

3. Russia: The only nation among the top 10 to see a decline, Moscow’s exports plummeted by 64% over the five-year period, leaving it with a 6.8% global market share. Of the 30 countries receiving Russian hardware, approximately 74% of total exports were concentrated in just three nations: India (48%), China (13%), and Belarus (13%).

Sergey Chemezov, head of the state-owned Rostec corporation, criticized SIPRI’s methodology regarding defense sector calculations. “We do not publish this data, nor do other countries like China; these are classified. Where do they get them? They just make them up out of thin air,” Chemezov said.

Germany overtakes China while South Korea ascends

4. Germany: With a 5.7% share of the global market, Germany surpassed China during this period. Approximately one-quarter of German arms exports were directed to Ukraine, followed by Egypt (14%) and Israel (10%).

5. China: Holding a 5.6% share of global supply, China funneled the vast majority of its military production to Pakistan (61% of Chinese exports), while Serbia (6.8%) and Thailand (4.7%) remained other primary buyers.

6. Italy: Italian arms exports jumped by 157% between 2021 and 2025, capturing 5.1% of the global market. Italy’s export portfolio is heavily weighted toward the Middle East (59%), followed by Asia and Oceania (16%), and Europe (13%). Its largest buyers were Qatar (26%), Kuwait (17%), and Indonesia (12%).

Israel secures record exports despite Gaza conflict

7. Israel: Capturing a 4.4% share of global supply, Israel overtook the United Kingdom, a position London had held for years. India (29% of Israeli exports), Germany (21%), and the US (7.8%) were the primary recipients.

Zain Hussain, a researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Program, observed that “despite the war in Gaza and strikes involving Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, and Yemen, Israel managed to increase its share of global arms exports.” Hussain pointed out that the Israeli defense industry is primarily focused on air defense systems, for which there is intense global demand.

8. United Kingdom: The UK’s share of global supply stood at 3.4%. Its largest buyers were Qatar (31% of British exports), the US (14%), and Ukraine (13%).

9. South Korea: Accounting for 3% of global arms exports, South Korea directed the bulk of its production to Poland (58% of South Korean shipments), followed by the Philippines (18%) and the United Arab Emirates (9.5%).

10. Spain: With a 2.3% share of the global market, Spain’s primary customers were Saudi Arabia (28% of exports), Türkiye (16%), and Belgium (12%).

Ukraine and Europe occupy lead positions

In the export rankings, Ukraine placed 21st with a 0.3% share of global exports. Its primary buyers were China (64% of Ukrainian exports), India (23%), and Qatar (5.8%).

On the import side, the picture was stark: Europe accounted for 33% of all global arms purchases between 2021 and 2025, representing a 210% increase in imports and making it the leading region for procurement. Following Ukraine, the largest importers were Poland and the UK. Nearly half (48%) of the weapons imported by European states originated in the US, followed by Germany (7.1%) and France (6.2%).

SIPRI researcher Katarina Djokic offered this assessment: “While European companies are ramping up production and the European Union’s new investment support program for the defense industry has spurred some intra-European orders, European states continued to import American weapons during the 2021–2025 period, particularly in the categories of combat aircraft and long-range air defense systems.” In contrast, arms procurement in other regions—Asia and Oceania, the Middle East, and Africa—declined over the last five years.

Diplomacy

CSTO strips Armenia of voting rights over two-year budget debt

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Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have stripped Armenia of its voting rights and its ability to appoint representatives to official positions due to a two-year debt to the organization’s budget.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “This decision was taken based on the organization’s charter due to Armenia’s failure to fulfil its obligations for several years.”

Prior to the CSTO leaders’ summit in Moscow, Peskov had stated that member states would “react” to the Caucasus country’s non-participation in the organization’s activities.

Ahead of the Moscow summit, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his country’s “interest has run out” regarding the CSTO. Through his press spokesperson, he announced that he would travel to Türkiye on 11 November to attend the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) instead of going to Russia.

The CSTO leaders’ meeting was held with the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin alongside the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

The leaders jointly took the decision to revoke Armenia’s voting rights.

At the conclusion of the meeting, the participants also signed a joint declaration.

The declaration stated: “We confirm our unconditional commitment to the goals set out in the CSTO treaty and charter towards creating favourable and stable conditions for the comprehensive development of member states.”

Pashinyan had frozen Yerevan’s de facto participation in the CSTO in February 2024, citing the organization’s failure to aid the Armenian side during the armed clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.

Having referred to the CSTO as a “soap-bubble alliance” since that time, Pashinyan accused the organization’s members of “planning war” together with Baku. He stated that Armenia would not return to active work within the alliance at least “over the next five years”, adding that he would welcome it if the country were expelled from membership.

Relations between Armenia and Russia grew tense once again in the spring of 2026, after Yerevan moved closer to the European Union (EU) and the Kremlin responded with a trade war.

In May, Pashinyan refused to travel to Moscow to attend the Victory Day parade and declared that he did not support Russia on the Ukraine issue.

In response, Putin called on Yerevan to determine its foreign policy course through a referendum, advising Armenian authorities not to forget the fate of Ukraine.

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US urges Russia to draft proposals for new European security pact

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The US administration has reportedly called on Russia to submit proposals for a prospective security treaty with Europe that would include measures to ease tensions between European nations and Moscow.

According to a report by news site Axios citing sources familiar with the matter, the US side conveyed the request during trilateral negotiations held in Abu Dhabi.

During the talks, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner suggested that the Russian delegation prepare a fresh proposal outlining its security concerns and demands.

The US delegation reportedly asked that this proposal clarify what kind of “symmetrical steps” Moscow is prepared to take to de-escalate tensions and “provide non-aggression guarantees to Europe”.

Another source familiar with the White House’s approach said the Trump administration aims to run the processes for a new European security architecture and a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine simultaneously.

Under this plan, the actual implementation of the security understandings would take effect only after the signing of an accord ending the conflict in Ukraine.

Assessing the approach to the process, the source said: “[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy will not agree to any compromise without knowing what will happen next regarding security guarantees. Putin also wants to see the exact same picture clearly. This is precisely why the security portfolio is so decisive.”

The same official noted that the US will not reach a security agreement with Russia without the support of Europe and Ukraine, adding that Washington will not grant Moscow veto power over European security decisions.

Vladimir Medinsky, aide to the Russian president and head of the delegation in the Ukraine negotiations, previously stated that the fundamental objective was building a comprehensive new security system in Europe.

Medinsky noted that the structure in question must take on the character of “a fair, new, modern Yalta and Potsdam that carries the spirit of Helsinki 1975 and responds to contemporary realities”.

The Russian official argued that if such a system were established, peace lasting for decades, or even centuries, could be secured in Europe.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also announced that Moscow possesses its own position paper on how a new security architecture in Eurasia should take shape.

Lavrov stated that Russia hopes the Washington administration will “maintain its determination to pursue dialogue aimed at achieving an honest balance of interests where nobody’s security is impaired”.

Russian authorities have repeatedly stated that the country has no intention of attacking Europe.

Pointing out that they have no reason to fight NATO countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin previously said: “We have no interest whatsoever, neither geopolitical nor economic, political nor military.”

In a statement in October, Putin said Russia has no plans to attack anyone “in 2029, in 2030, or in the year 2050”.

On the other hand, Putin claimed that “all NATO countries are fighting Russia” and stated that the Russian military is currently the most combat-ready armed force in the world.

Following the contacts in Abu Dhabi, Kushner announced that he and Witkoff would travel to Moscow.

Explaining that they plan to meet Putin during the visit to discuss European participation in negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict, Kushner argued that the parties could make “far greater progress” if the Russian leader consents to such involvement.

Yury Ushakov, aide to the Russian president, stated that the US special envoys will arrive in Moscow on 12 November, with the planned meeting with the Russian president scheduled for the first half of the day.

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Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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