Saudi Arabia risks exhausting its exportable crude stockpiles if the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea fails to resume operations, according to reports.

Citing companies purchasing Saudi crude as well as market traders, the Reuters news agency reported that such an outcome could trigger a severe contraction in global oil supply.

Oil flows through the pipeline were halted following drone strikes. The government in Riyadh has not yet issued an official statement regarding the extent of the damage or the expected duration of repair works.

Sources familiar with the matter have offered differing estimates regarding the repair timetable.

One source speaking to Reuters noted that works could take five to six weeks, while another source stated that the damage could be repaired more quickly and that partial oil flows could be restored before repairs are entirely completed.

Stocks at Yanbu port reach critical threshold

Traversing the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, the pipeline carries approximately 4 million barrels of oil per day. This volume represents roughly 4% of global oil supply.

The line previously provided Saudi Arabia with an alternative export route, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz where maritime traffic has faced disruptions due to regional conflict in the Middle East.

Three sources closely tracking shipment schedules indicated that, following the stoppage, oil reserves at Yanbu port would suffice to sustain exports for only five to seven days.

A fourth source stated that additional reserves held in Egypt at the Red Sea port of Ain Sokhna and the Mediterranean terminal of Sidi Kerir afford buyers shipments for several more days.

Storage capacities stand at approximately 35 million barrels at Yanbu, 18 million barrels at Ain Sokhna, and 20 million barrels at Sidi Kerir.

However, sources stressed that these facilities are not currently filled to maximum capacity and warned that these inventories will be entirely depleted if the pipeline is not brought back online.

Output at lowest level in 30 years

According to International Energy Agency data, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea transit corridors pushed Saudi oil supply in August to its lowest level in 30 years.

Data submitted by the Riyadh government to OPEC show that the kingdom’s crude production fell from 10.9 million barrels per day in February to 6.2 million barrels per day in August.

In July, the Houthis in Yemen announced the launch of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. On 8 September, the Saudi Ministry of Energy announced that operations had been suspended at several energy facilities in the southern part of the country.

On the same day, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an official statement condemning Houthi strikes targeting facilities in the cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan, and Najran.

Riyadh authorities reported that 73 civilians, including women and children, were injured in the attacks. US President Donald Trump stated that Iran might be behind this attack on Saudi Arabia.

In oil markets, Brent crude futures recorded their sharpest single-day gain since late July on Thursday, 10 September.

The price of November Brent crude contracts rose by 6.3% to reach $107.6 per barrel. Prices retreated below the $105 mark the following day.

Iran reportedly acquired high-resolution satellite imagery from China both before and after a missile strike on an American base in Jordan in July that resulted in the deaths of three US soldiers.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal citing US officials, Tehran launched ballistic missiles on 17 July against Muwaffaq al-Salti Air Base in north-eastern Jordan. The missiles struck the barracks where American soldiers were sleeping, killing three service members and wounding four others.

The report stated that the Donald Trump administration had repeatedly warned Beijing in the months preceding the attack that Chinese companies could provide satellite imagery to Tehran. In May, the US imposed sanctions on the China-based companies MizarVision, Earth Eye, and Chang Guang.

Beijing rejects the allegations

Officials noted that following the attack, the Tehran administration published high-resolution images showing the damage sustained at the base. The American side reportedly presented documents demonstrating the link to the Jordan attack to Chinese counterparts; however, Beijing rejected these contentions and demanded concrete evidence.

Officials cited in the report stated that Beijing does not accept the claim that Chinese companies provided support to Tehran. According to the report, the officials did not disclose the names of the companies that provided the satellite imagery, nor did they claim that the Beijing government was directly involved in the incident.

Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said the accusations were “malicious” and maintained that cooperation between China and Iran is conducted entirely in accordance with international law.

The report assessed that these allegations could escalate tensions between the two countries ahead of a summit planned between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on 24 September.

Trump reportedly told his team that maintaining good relations with Beijing and Xi was a priority, leading senior American officials to avoid open confrontations that could overshadow the summit. According to the report, officials are particularly playing down the scale of potential support China could provide to Iran in public.

Washington concerned over naval forces

Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi a few days after the base attack in July. Rubio avoided giving a direct answer when asked whether China provided intelligence data to Tehran, saying, “No action by China has in any way altered the course of the conflict.”

Sources speaking to the newspaper stated that the American administration is also concerned that Beijing could assist Tehran in tracking US naval forces. In recent days, Iran launched ballistic missiles at an American aircraft carrier and other military vessels.

In a report published during the summer, the Reuters news agency claimed that China was planning a major shipment of man-portable air-defence systems (MANPADS) to Iran via Pakistan, an allegation denied by both the Chinese Foreign Ministry and the Pakistan Armed Forces.

Donald Trump, for his part, announced that during their face-to-face meeting in Beijing, Xi Jinping personally assured him that the Chinese state and companies would under no circumstances provide military support to Tehran.

Iran has resumed ballistic missile production in underground facilities, despite statements by Israeli and US authorities asserting that this capacity had been completely eliminated.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal citing US and Middle Eastern officials, the Tehran administration is utilizing pre-stockpiled components in the manufacturing process.

Officials report that despite strikes on missile sites and industrial installations at the beginning of the war, Iran continues the assembly of both solid- and liquid-fuelled missiles.

Intelligence data indicates activity at numerous underground centres, including the Khojir complex in the southeast of the country, along with efforts to establish additional underground assembly points to protect against new air strikes.

Current assembly operations are being maintained at lower volumes compared with pre-war levels, as US and Israeli operations destroyed several facilities and a naval blockade has impeded the import of components and solid-fuel ingredients.

Assessing the process, Tal Inbar, a senior analyst at the US-based Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, stressed that damaged infrastructure can be repaired during periods when facilities are not targeted, and parts procured from other countries can be stored there.

Inbar noted that it would be naive to believe Iran is not rebuilding its missile production capacity.

Arguing that the facilities were destroyed and Tehran has suffered severe losses, the official stated that Iran remains weaker than ever before, and US President Donald Trump will never permit the country to acquire nuclear weapons.

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell stated that the US has destroyed up to 90% of Iran’s drone, ballistic missile, and naval industrial infrastructure, severely degrading Tehran’s ability to launch missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Another US government official pointed out that the Tehran administration may have revived production, albeit on a low scale, following preliminary talks conducted in mid-June with the Trump administration regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war. The official noted that existing stockpiles are sufficient to assemble at least two hundred missiles.

A CNN report in late May indicated that the Tehran administration was attempting to reopen underground missile shelters, struck by the US and Israel with costly munitions, using bulldozers and dump trucks.

Excavation activities accelerated after the April ceasefire decision; out of 69 tunnel entrances struck across 18 distinct locations, 50 have been made accessible again.

Experts stressed that it is impossible to destroy missile power solely by bombing tunnel entrances, underlining the limitations of such bombardments.

US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth claimed in April that they had effectively ended Iran’s missile programme. However, an NBC News report noted that Tehran utilized the ceasefire period to reconstitute its military strength.