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Trump’s push for Russia-Ukraine peace turned into a strategic dilemma

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On May 22, Russian President Putin announced that he had decided to establish a necessary security buffer zone along the border with Ukraine. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nikolenko immediately responded, stating that Putin’s remarks showed that Russia is the true obstacle to peace. Generally, creating a buffer zone along the border or front line implies that one or both warring parties intend to consolidate existing conflict results and establish a new long-term ceasefire or even de facto boundary of control. Russia’s decision signals that, in terms of territorial disputes, the three-year-long Russia-Ukraine war has tipped clearly in Russia’s favor. With this as a foundation, Russia seeks to shift the conflict to peace talks and thus reshape the geopolitical landscape and establish a new security order.

On the same day, Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine was striving to ensure the next round of bilateral talks would happen soon but noted that Russia had not yet demonstrated equal readiness. Zelensky’s remarks showed a similarly unyielding position, indicating no willingness to make major territorial concessions.

In contrast, U.S. President Donald Trump, who once confidently promised a quick resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war, appears to have lost both confidence and interest, having encountered unexpected difficulties. Trump has no intention of offending Putin, whom he admires, nor can he influence Zelensky, whom he disparages. Thus, the idea of restarting a peace process upon returning to the White House has become an easily burst illusion. In fact, the positions of Russia and Ukraine are not only far apart, but the U.S. and Europe also hold diverging views. The Trump administration failed to realize that the slogan “Defend Ukraine” had become a strategic consensus among European allies for mutual support and collective defense. As a result, the Trump administration’s peace efforts are mired in strategic difficulties due to the lack of consensus.

Before and after taking office, Trump cooperated with Israel to defeat nearly all its regional adversaries, effectively ending what could be seen as the “Sixth Middle East War” by dismantling the “Axis of Resistance.” Currently, only Yemen’s Houthis are actively resisting Israel in support of the embattled Palestinian Hamas. Moreover, Trump successfully visited three Gulf nations, strengthened ties with Turkey, reconciled with longtime foe Syria, and is working to foster a historic breakthrough in Syrian-Israeli relations.

Despite having the capacity to reshape the Middle East, Trump is powerless in the complex Russia-Ukraine war. He admitted that his campaign claim to “end the war in 24 hours” was an offhand remark. His pressure on Ukraine and Europe failed, and he has even lost the initiative in leading peace talks.

On May 16, Russia and Ukraine resumed direct negotiations after three years, with Turkey—maintaining good relations with both sides—serving as a mediator. Apart from a humanitarian agreement to exchange 1,000 prisoners of war, no other progress was made due to the vast differences in peace conditions. Half the Ukrainian delegation wore military uniforms, signaling their readiness to fight to the end.

Russia’s conditions are well-known: Ukraine must relinquish its claim to Crimea, cede four eastern and southern regions to Russia, and vow never to join NATO. Ukraine’s bottom line is to cede no territory and continue its NATO membership pursuit.

After the Istanbul talks, Putin inspected the fully recaptured Kursk region and will soon visit Donbas, controlled by Russian forces. This over three-year war has now entered a new stalemate phase marked by a temporary Russian victory. With overwhelming military strength and vast occupied territory, Russia refuses Ukraine’s call for a ceasefire before negotiations and instead favors negotiating while fighting. This strategy prevents Ukraine from regrouping and aims to drive Ukrainian forces out of the remaining contested areas, securing full control of the four regions. The “border buffer zone” Putin spoke of essentially represents a redefined Russia-Ukraine boundary, securing complete victory in the war.

Russia holds battlefield initiative and strategic upper hand, Ukraine refuses to yield, and European countries are unwilling to abandon Ukraine. This complex situation has gradually drained the Trump administration’s confidence, patience, and courage, increasingly signaling a hands-off approach.

Trump once threatened Russia that if it refused to reach an agreement, the U.S. would impose “secondary tariffs” on its oil exports. However, after a two-hour phone call with Putin on the 19th, Trump completely discarded this verbal threat. Subsequently, in consultations with European leaders, Trump even openly indicated that the U.S. not only had no intention of sanctioning Russia but also planned to fully withdraw and let Russia and Ukraine resolve it themselves. Trump clearly emphasized: This is not America’s war — “This is Europe’s problem, and it should always remain Europe’s problem.”

Russian TASS commentator Hoffman stated after the Trump-Putin call that the conversation was less about future U.S.-Russia trade relations and more about Washington’s acknowledgment of a new geopolitical reality — one in which Russia defines the key parameters of a long-term solution. Another Russian commentator, Ivanikov, emphasized that the call opened the door to historic peace, needing only legal formalization. He also believed that “Trump obviously shares Russia’s perspective on the root causes of the Ukraine conflict.”

Trump’s efforts to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war have been severely frustrated due to several factors. First, he and his advisors overestimated the influence of American leadership in persuading European allies to compromise their core interests, mistakenly treating the territory and sovereignty of other nations as tradable commodities. Second, his advisory team consists largely of political amateurs, many of whom blindly idolize him and follow his lead without question. They lack strategic minds akin to Kissinger or Mearsheimer, turning U.S. mediation into empty talk, detached from geopolitical realities and national interests. Third, Trump and many of his cabinet members lack a deep understanding of European history and fail to grasp the basic rule that wars are easy to start but hard to end.

From the perspective of European history, today’s Russia-Ukraine crisis, conflict, and war are a continuation and repetition of centuries-old tensions between Russia and European nations. It reflects the cultural rejection of Russia by the West, despite its attempts to integrate; the collision between Russia’s quest for “imperial space” due to its deep-seated insecurity and the West’s entrenched Russophobia. It also echoes a long-term struggle between Catholicism and Eastern Orthodoxy over religious authority and legitimacy.

Throughout this long history of European land-based conflict, the more Russia fought, the more its territory expanded, with neighboring adversaries either eliminated or fragmented into small states. This has heightened Russia’s westward ambitions and intensified the defeated parties’ fear of Russia. The Baltic states repeatedly changed hands in power struggles involving Russia and its powerful neighbors; Poland was partitioned four times, including by Russia (and later the Soviet Union). A fragmented Europe, after WWII, had to rely on the distant yet powerful U.S. across the Atlantic to establish NATO — aiming to prevent a third German resurgence and to counter Russia’s long-term strategic pressure.

The eventual collapse of the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc led the West to continually erode Russia’s strategic space through EU and NATO expansion, undermining Russia’s national confidence and directly triggering conflicts such as the Georgia war, the two Nagorno-Karabakh wars, and today’s Russia-Ukraine war.

Therefore, European countries—whether small nations bordering Russia or traditional powers like Germany, France, and the UK farther from the frontlines—are unlikely to “reward” Russia by ceding Ukrainian territory. Instead, they are resolutely increasing military spending, strengthening defense capabilities, and continuously supporting Ukraine. This is part of a long-term strategy to independently defend Ukraine and Europe if the U.S. eventually betrays its allies completely.

Under such circumstances, Trump’s wishful thinking—hoping to exchange Ukrainian territory for European peace or sacrificing European security interests for U.S.-Russia reconciliation—will inevitably meet with collective resistance from both Ukraine and most European countries.

Of course, the awkward reality is that NATO remains under absolute U.S. leadership. European nations are unable to independently deploy NATO forces to defeat Russia or help Ukraine reclaim lost territory. The idea of an independent European military isn’t even at the stage of being a comforting illusion. Without full U.S. support, Europe becomes a “strategic orphan” composed of many dwarves—fragmented, bloated, and powerless. It can neither act alone nor together to confront a powerful neighbor like Russia. The new reality of Ukraine losing half its territory is also difficult to reverse.

The Trump administration is gradually abandoning leadership of the Western world and relinquishing its dominant position in NATO. Its focus on making America strong alone means it will never bleed to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity or help Europe fulfill its strategic dream of containing Russia. Although the Russia-Ukraine war has entered a new phase of direct negotiations, there is no chance for a win-win outcome. Ukraine and Europe’s best hope at present is to maintain the status quo and wait for the Republican administration to step down, hoping that a Democratic administration will return to the previous hardline policies. Even so, Ukraine and Europe are unlikely to win the war—unless a dramatic internal change occurs in Russia, or the country disintegrates. A united, nationalist Russia remains undefeated, especially not on its own doorstep.

History has long witnessed the power struggles between Russia and Europe. It shows that Russia has never willingly returned land it has occupied or annexed unless it was truly defeated—especially not places like Crimea or the four eastern and southern Ukrainian provinces, which are historically connected and home to many generations of ethnic Russians.

Three years ago, shortly after the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, the author predicted that this century’s war would end with a tragic Russian victory and a disastrous Ukrainian defeat. The forecast was that this continental war involving multiple actors would first become “Afghanistan-ized,” and eventually “Palestinian-ized.” Unfortunately, reality is step by step confirming this prediction.

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.

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India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships

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Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.

India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.

Today, India’s achievements extend  beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.

India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.

India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.

The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.

Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.

India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with  NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.

These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.

To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.

India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.

The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.

In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.

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Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa

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In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.

History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.

Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.

Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.

AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS

Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.

Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.

In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”

China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.

THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY

It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.

The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.

The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.

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The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues

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BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.

Allan Wilson, Journalist

Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.

“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”

Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.

For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.

The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.

“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.

A statue, a warning

The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.

The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.

For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”

Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.

The shrinking window

Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.

This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.

Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.

A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.

The international dimension

The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”

Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.

For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.

“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.

This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.

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