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Trump’s ‘harvest tour’ of the Middle East ends fully loaded

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On May 16, Middle East time, U.S. President Trump concluded a four-day official visit to three Arab countries in the Middle East. This marked Trump’s first state visit since reentering the White House, continuing his tradition of valuing the Middle East’s commercial and geopolitical significance. Although Trump unexpectedly “skipped” Israel, America’s top regional ally, this three-country trip — expected to be a “harvest tour” — proved fruitful. Whether it was selling arms, attracting investment, declaring policies, or “harvesting” enemies or strategic opponents, he achieved dazzling results. Judging solely by Trump’s success in massively “attracting funds,” the U.S. not only reinforced its military hegemony, but also showcased its outstanding geopolitical leverage and financial siphoning capabilities, making it hard for other powers or economies to keep up in the short term. In short, the United States remains the only extraterritorial power with strong shaping influence in the Middle East.

Starting May 13, Trump’s Middle East tour began in Saudi Arabia and ended with Qatar and the UAE. The entire process highlighted his “power diplomacy” and “transactional diplomacy.” These three countries are among the wealthiest in the Arab world and heavily rely on the U.S. for national security. It was widely expected that Trump would “suck in” massive amounts of money during the trip — yet the outcome still surprised many.

To ensure that wealthy but weak Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia continue their “ransom” policy — paying large sums to the U.S. for safety and status — Trump high-profiled his return to the White House by declaring he would dedicate his first foreign visit’s “first night” to Riyadh. Moreover, Trump invited Saudi Arabia to host the first high-level U.S.-Russia talks, giving full prestige to the host. He even suggested renaming the “Persian Gulf” to the “Arabian Gulf,” showing thorough preparation and calculated gestures.

Eight years ago, Trump’s first visit to the Gulf reaped over $115 billion in arms sales from Saudi Arabia, secured a ten-year $400 billion Saudi investment promise, and finalized a $40 billion arms deal with Qatar. On this return trip, Trump dropped his previous arrogant posture of mocking Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman at the White House. Instead, at the “Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum 2025” on May 13, he humbled himself, lavished praise, even flattery, repeatedly lauding the young host’s “greatness” and “wisdom,” which earned smiles, warm applause, and standing ovations from the de facto ruler.

U.S.-Saudi relations have entered a new honeymoon phase, arguably the highest point since the turn of the century. The key lies in benefit exchanges and petrodollar deals. On the day Trump arrived in Riyadh, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed a $142 billion arms deal, involving five categories of defense equipment and services from over ten American defense firms. Saudi Arabia also pledged to invest $600 billion in the U.S. to strengthen bilateral strategic ties, promote economic prosperity, and jointly aim to raise the investment total to $1 trillion in the coming months. This marked the largest arms and investment deal ever between the two nations. Saudi investments will bolster America’s energy security, defense industry, technological leadership, and access to global infrastructure and critical minerals.

Trump is very familiar with the subtle relations among the wealthy Arab neighbors — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are both rising powers in the Arab League and compete economically and politically. Qatar, previously suppressed and isolated by the duo, has remained resilient thanks to its wealth and U.S. favor — earning a reputation as the “invincible Gulf mini-power.” Trump’s deliberate inclusion of all three countries aimed to leverage Saudi Arabia to draw in Qatar and the UAE, realizing his grand goal of a “trillion-dollar harvest tour.”

Just before Trump’s visit, Qatar’s royal family bypassed U.S. legal restrictions and donated a luxurious $400 million Boeing 747-8 aircraft via the Pentagon to Trump, replacing the over 40-year-old Air Force One. During his visit to Doha on May 14, Trump flattered Emir Tamim of Qatar, describing U.S.-Qatar relations as a “loyal friendship” and saying the two sides “liked each other.” The same day, the U.S. and Qatar signed over $243.5 billion in economic cooperation agreements. This included Qatar’s purchase of 210 Boeing aircraft worth $96 billion — the largest order in Boeing’s history. Qatar also agreed to buy $3 billion worth of MQ-9B drones and anti-drone systems.

In 2017, during Trump’s first visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, he first supported Saudi claims that Qatar was “funding terrorism,” and soon after helped Qatar to “clear its name.” This opportunistic approach — hitting then comforting — allowed Qatar, which hosts the largest U.S. air base in the Gulf, to gain strong protection by frantically purchasing U.S. arms, ultimately escaping the intense pressure and “siege” from Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

With the massive “gift packages” from Saudi Arabia and Qatar as a foundation, on the 15th, Trump’s final stop was the UAE, where he facilitated the signing of cooperation agreements exceeding $200 billion. This also included a joint venture to build a data center covering 260,000 square meters with a 5GW capacity — enough to power 2.5 million Nvidia B2000 chips. In fact, as early as March this year, during a U.S. visit by UAE National Security Advisor Sheikh bin Zayed, it was already promised that the UAE would establish a 10-year investment framework worth $1.4 trillion in the United States. This means the UAE proactively and early presented its lavish “gifts” to the White House even before Trump’s Gulf tour had begun.

Trump’s Gulf tour was also a policy announcement tour. During a one-hour impromptu speech at the Saudi-American Investment Forum, Trump theatrically condemned previous U.S. administrations for interfering in the Middle East, claiming they “destroyed more countries than they built” and emphasized that the U.S. has “no permanent enemies.” He candidly stated, “some of America’s closest friends today were once countries we fought against.” Using Saudi Arabia’s development model as an example, he emphasized that “self-reliance” is more effective than “external interference.” Analysts believe that the profit-driven Trump has openly abandoned traditional U.S. value-laden interventionist diplomacy and gunboat policies, aiming instead to reshape the Middle East order through a new “mercantilist” approach.

What surprised global opinion even more was that Trump “left out” his staunch ally Israel on this trip, in order to prevent Israel’s petty calculations from interfering with broader U.S. interests, and to avoid deeper entanglement in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Gaza war quagmire. Previously, Trump had faced backlash from Arab media for his excessive favoritism toward Israel. However, given the unshakable U.S.-Israel alliance and Trump’s close personal ties with Netanyahu, Israel seemed absent from the official visit list, but Trump instinctively did not forget his old friend. He urged Saudi Arabia to quickly join the Abraham Accords to normalize ties with Israel, pushed for Syrian-Israeli reconciliation, and continued to peddle the controversial U.S. argument that Gaza could be taken over.

What truly shocked the world was Trump’s sudden public meeting with Syria’s new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in Riyadh, urging him to normalize relations with Israel, expel “Palestinian terrorists” from Syria, and take responsibility for establishing prisons in northeastern Syria to detain jihadists. This meeting — attended in person by the Saudi Crown Prince and via video by Türkiye’s President — marked the first U.S.-Syria summit in 25 years. Furthermore, at the urging of the Saudi and Turkish leaders, Trump announced the lifting of decades-long U.S. economic and trade sanctions on Syria, officially ending 46 years of international, especially unilateral American, sanctions.

Trump’s meeting with al-Sharaa can be seen as a classic example of “value-free diplomacy” and “turning enemies into friends,” as he completely disregarded Sharaa’s past as a long-wanted “terrorist” leader by the U.S., and ignored the fact that Syria’s new government is still led by the “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” group, which remains listed as a terrorist organization by both the U.N. and the U.S. Trump even publicly praised this former “enemy” to American media while boarding his plane out of Saudi Arabia, calling him a “brave warrior of the past” and now a “sunny, handsome tough guy.” On the 16th, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio met with Syrian Foreign Minister Shibani in Antalya, Türkiye, clearly stating that the U.S. would help build a peaceful, stable, and Iran-free Syria.

In fact, observers familiar with Trump’s foreign policy were not surprised. As early as March 2020, during the later part of his first term, Trump abruptly abandoned the U.S.-backed Kabul government of 20 years to quickly end the Afghanistan war. He signed a withdrawal-for-ceasefire agreement with the Taliban — America’s arch-enemy — showing complete disregard for national dignity and political principles. This led to a “two-government” state in Afghanistan and soon after, Taliban regained power. Trump even shamelessly invited Taliban leaders to the White House and fired National Security Advisor Bolton on the spot for opposing the plan.

Another major outcome of Trump’s current Middle East diplomacy was that, using a “carrot and stick” approach, he forced significant concessions from the three main powers of the “Axis of Resistance”: Yemen’s Houthi forces, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), and Iran. Just before Trump’s visit, with Amman mediating, the U.S. and the Houthis reached a ceasefire agreement, under which the Houthis pledged not to attack ships passing through the Red Sea. Meanwhile, Hamas announced the release of the last American hostage as a gift for Trump’s arrival — a gesture that also served as a response to Trump’s administration for not fully following Israel’s lead. On May 15, senior Hamas official Basem Naim told the media that Hamas was in direct negotiations with the United States to reach a ceasefire agreement to end the Gaza conflict… If a permanent ceasefire is achieved, Hamas could hand over control of the Gaza Strip.

Before Trump’s visit, American representatives had already held four rounds of talks with Iran in Oman’s capital Muscat. Both sides described the discussions as having made “constructive” progress. While in Riyadh, Trump once again publicly addressed Tehran, urging its leaders to choose a “new, better path” and reach a new nuclear agreement with Washington. He warned that this opportunity for a diplomatic solution “will not last forever,” and threatened, “If Iran’s leadership rejects this olive branch… we will have no choice but to apply maximum pressure and reduce Iran’s oil exports to zero.”

Perhaps due to the earlier four rounds of talks revealing Trump’s intentions and bottom line, or the painful memory of the extreme pressure campaign from his first term, or the strategic failure of the “Sixth Middle East War,” or Russia’s public statement that it would not intervene in a U.S.-Iran military conflict, or observing Trump’s recent positive interactions with the Houthis and Hamas — a series of intense changes led Iran’s government to swiftly and clearly respond to Trump’s mixed diplomatic tactics.

On May 14, Ali Shamkhani, advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, stated to NBC that Iran was willing to reach a deal with the U.S. in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. Shamkhani said Iran would promise never to develop nuclear weapons, destroy its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, agree to limit uranium enrichment to levels needed for civilian use, and allow international monitors to supervise the process.

Observers believe this was Iran’s fastest and most flexible compromise stance on the nuclear issue to date. Although Iranian negotiators previously held tough positions, Trump’s successful “harvest tour” in the Gulf, the further strengthening of U.S.-Arab ties, the historic reversal in U.S.-Syria relations, and the disunity among the “Axis of Resistance” members forced Tehran to quickly adjust its diplomatic posture and nuclear stance to avoid deeper isolation and passivity. On May 15, before leaving Doha for the UAE, Trump made it clear that the U.S. and Iran were very close to reaching a nuclear agreement and that Tehran had “to a certain extent” agreed to the terms.

In short, Trump gained substantial results from this Middle East trip. Unexpected developments revealed that his power-based and “transactional” diplomacy is reshaping regional geopolitics. Despite domestic and international challenges, America’s strategic foundation remains stable and strong. The major Gulf oil-producing states, which already invested much of their sovereign wealth in the U.S. market, continue to bet their future wealth preservation, growth, and high-tech development on the United States as their strategic ally. In contrast, their investments in other major economies are negligible — mere “pepper dust” and “drizzle” — highlighting the irreplaceable status of the U.S. as the only current superpower.

At the same time, with the steady collapse of the “Shiite Crescent,” the disintegration of the “Axis of Resistance,” the strengthening of U.S. relations with Arab countries and Türkiye, the expanding normalization under the Abraham Accords between Arab states and Israel, and the possible significant shift in U.S.-Iran relations this year, it is evident that a new Middle East is brewing and beginning to emerge.

Prof. Ma is the Dean of the Institute of Mediterranean Studies (ISMR) at Zhejiang International Studies University in Hangzhou. He specializes in international politics, particularly Islam and Middle Eastern affairs. He previously worked as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine, and Iraq.

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A voice rising from New Delhi: BRICS’s manifesto for a new world order

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The BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, held in the Indian capital of New Delhi on May 15, 2026, carries a significance that extends far beyond the confines of routine diplomacy. This gathering culminated in the signing of one of the most comprehensive political documents to date, outlining the vision of the world order that BRICS envisions for 2026. Reading between the lines, the document reveals not merely the proceedings of a ministerial summit, but the contours of a comprehensive alternative vision challenging the Western-centric international system. Indeed, this text must be read as a political manifesto of the shifting balances of power, the accelerating global struggle for influence, and the emerging new world order of recent years.

The overarching theme dominating the entire document is “The Rise of the Global South.” BRICS members contend that the current international order is unjust, insufficiently representative, and fails to reflect the interests of developing nations. Consequently, they emphasize the urgent need to restructure foundational institutions such as the UN, IMF, World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). In doing so, BRICS now positions itself as the voice of the non-Western world. Today, the global arena is traversing an era in which the post-World War II international system has plunged into a profound crisis of legitimacy and representation. Developments such as the wars in Ukraine, Iran, and Lebanon, the Gaza crisis, global trade wars, the weaponization of sanctions, energy security challenges, and technological competition demonstrate that the current system struggles to mirror contemporary global realities. It is precisely from this premise that the BRICS nations operate, sending a clear message to the world through the New Delhi Outcome Document: “The status quo is no longer sustainable.”

One of the most striking aspects of the document is how clearly it demonstrates that BRICS no longer views itself as a mere platform for economic cooperation. Having long focused primarily on economic development, trade, and finance since its inception, BRICS has now reached a far more ambitious posture. In the New Delhi Outcome Document, issues of security, geopolitical crises, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, climate policies, energy transition, and international governance reforms occupy a place as central as economics. This indicates that BRICS’s ambition to become a foundational actor in global politics is steadily gaining traction. Reading between the lines, the strongest emphasis emerges on the concept of a “multipolar world.” The core approach of BRICS is animated by the premise that the Western-centric, largely US-led international order, which took shape over the decades following the end of the Cold War, is no longer the sole alternative. Throughout the declaration, the repeated use of phrases like “more just,” “more representative,” “more democratic,” and “more inclusive” international system constitutes a direct critique of the current distribution of global power.

The sections concerning the reform of the United Nations Security Council are particularly critical. Indeed, the call for UN reform stands out as one of the most pivotal political segments of the document. BRICS nations explicitly state that the current structure fails to reflect contemporary realities. They contend that Africa, Latin America, and emerging Asian powers are underrepresented in decision-making mechanisms. What is even more remarkable is that China and Russia have reaffirmed their support for India and Brazil to assume greater roles within the Security Council. This state of affairs reveals, first and foremost, the elevation of India and Brazil to global-power status. Secondly, it demonstrates an increasing political cohesion within BRICS. Finally, it illustrates a fundamental questioning of the post-WWII international order.

Another prominent element in the document is the sharp critique of the sanctions policies pursued by the United States and the West. The intensive use of economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool in recent years has engendered collective discomfort among BRICS nations. The text emphasizes that unilateral sanctions violate international law and severely hamper the economic development of developing nations. Although no countries are named directly, this formulation can be read as a potent critique targeted at measures such as US sanctions on Iran, Russia, and Venezuela, as well as the embargo on Cuba. This approach is a continuation of BRICS’s long-standing critique regarding the “weaponization of economics.” Indeed, one of the most strategic segments of the declaration emerges here. For BRICS is no longer merely criticizing the existing financial architecture; it is actively endeavoring to construct alternative mechanisms. Initiatives such as cross-border payment systems, trade in local currencies, financial integration, and the strengthening of the New Development Bank can be read as harbingers of a long-term quest to forge an alternative to the dollar-centric global economic structure. While it is premature to speak of a system capable of fully displacing the dollar, the steps taken by BRICS are beginning to demonstrate that the current financial order is not the only option.

Another major political segment of the New Delhi Document concerns the Gaza and Palestine issue. Here, we witness one of the strongest stances BRICS has ever taken on the matter. The document employs highly resolute language regarding Gaza and Palestine, with a notable emphasis on an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders. Furthermore, South Africa’s legal action against Israel and the rulings of the International Court of Justice are directly recalled in the text. In the face of recent offensives and the unfolding humanitarian crisis, BRICS nations have displayed one of their clearest collective stances to date. The call for an immediate ceasefire, the demand for unhindered humanitarian aid delivery, support for Palestinian statehood, and the emphasis on international law stand among the declaration’s most potent political messages. This can be interpreted as an indication of BRICS’s desire to become a more visible and effective political actor in global crises.

On the other hand, the text does not entirely gloss over the internal divergences within BRICS. It openly acknowledges that members hold differing views, particularly on Middle Eastern issues. This is significant because today’s BRICS is no longer a bloc comprised solely of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. With the integration of new members such as Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia, it has evolved into a far more complex geopolitical entity. Interestingly, the document explicitly notes that rather than a unified stance, differing perspectives exist on certain issues. Specifically, it is conceded that members hold divergent positions on matters concerning Iran, the Gulf states, and Yemen. Despite these differences, the bloc’s ability to establish common ground demonstrates an expansion of BRICS’s diplomatic capacity. Viewed from this perspective, the New Delhi process also represents a significant diplomatic triumph for India. While the recent wave of expansion—bringing in Iran, the UAE, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia—has enriched the platform’s geopolitical diversity, it has also rendered collective decision-making processes more intricate. Particularly at a juncture where the war in Iran continues, the deep-seated divergences between Iran and the Gulf states led many experts to predict that BRICS would struggle to find common political ground and that the summit would be fraught with severe diplomatic friction. However, despite all these differences, India succeeded in rallying members with diverging interests and priorities around the same platform, proving that BRICS retains its capacity to generate dialogue rather than fracture. In this context, the outcome in New Delhi is not limited merely to the content of the published joint text. The true, striking success lies in the preservation of a diplomatic arena that enabled members—who find themselves directly opposed on certain issues in an extremely sensitive and polarized crisis environment—to compromise on other matters and continue negotiating under the BRICS umbrella.

Furthermore, one of the document’s most critical messages emerges in the realm of technology. The extensive coverage of topics such as artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, data security, and cybersecurity is no coincidence. Indeed, the global power struggle of the future will be shaped heavily through technological supremacy. BRICS nations clearly demonstrate their awareness of this reality and their intent to act in unison in the technological race. Particularly noteworthy is their quest to develop alternatives to Western-centric norms in artificial intelligence governance. A distinct approach is also observed in energy and climate policies. Instead of the rapid energy transition frequently championed by Western nations, the concept of a “just energy transition” is prioritized. At the heart of this approach lies the conviction that the economic growth needs of developing nations must not be disregarded. BRICS countries advocate for a balance between environmental responsibility and the right to development. This points to a major fault line that will become increasingly pronounced in global climate debates in the coming years.

When all these headings are evaluated together, the resulting picture is remarkably clear: BRICS is no longer merely a platform for safeguarding economic interests. It is a center of power beginning to articulate its own vision of how the international system ought to operate. At the core of this vision lies the objective of greater representation, sovereign equality, deeper multipolarity, and a stronger voice for developing nations in global decision-making processes.

The New Delhi Document, brought to the table at the BRICS Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, is far more than a mere communique; it is one of the landmark texts of the historic transformation unfolding in global politics. As the world rapidly moves away from a unipolar structure, BRICS is emerging as one of the most powerful political and economic vehicles of this transition. Today, many rules of the international system may still be written by the West. Yet, the message rising from New Delhi is clear: far more actors now demand a seat at the table to rewrite those very rules. BRICS is transitioning from an economic club into a political, diplomatic, financial, and technological powerhouse. Its claim to serve as the collective voice and compass of the Global South is strengthening. It pursues a dual strategy: offering an alternative to Western-centric institutions while simultaneously working to transform them. BRICS is not yet establishing institutions to directly replace the UN, IMF, World Bank, or WTO; rather, it is striving to change the rules and the distribution of power within them.

The 2026 New Delhi Document of the Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, hosted by India under its presidency, can be regarded as one of the most comprehensive strategic documents in the twenty-year history of BRICS. The text serves as a political manifesto for an era marked by the sunset of the US- and Western-led unipolar epoch, the demands of rising powers for greater agency, and the accelerating quest of the Global South to establish a permanent weight in the international system.

The essence of the document can be distilled into a single sentence: while BRICS remains a platform that adapts to the rules of the existing international order, it is simultaneously transforming into a global actor that seeks to rewrite them.

Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).

X: @umur_tugay

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NATO as the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism

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Contrary to what is written in its founding charter and press releases, or what its proponents claim, NATO is no ordinary defense and security organization. It is far more than that. It is a multidimensional, multifaceted organization driven by distinct ideological, political-economic, and class-based preferences. Moreover, as an organization born in the early stages of the Cold War, while its primary objective was ostensibly defined as “opposing the USSR and communism,” its actual function went far beyond this: it served as a mechanism to keep alliance members aligned with and under the control of the United States. Through NATO, the US has established immense influence not only over the defense, security, and foreign policies of member states, but also over their domestic politics, economic policies, educational institutions, universities, academia, think tanks, trade unions, and cultural industries.

As the apparatus of aggression and occupation of US imperialism, NATO launched its first out-of-area military operation in the mid-1990s in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Balkans. This was followed by the intervention in Kosovo in 1999. In the Gulf War of 1990–1991, during the US assault on Iraq, NATO was not directly involved as an alliance or a corporate entity. Instead, there was a US-led coalition that included numerous NATO members. At the time, NATO provided air defense systems to Türkiye but did not launch a direct military attack on Iraq.

In those years, with less than a decade having passed since the end of the Cold War in 1991, liberals and neoliberals alike were busy extolling the virtues of a single-centered, monocentric world order (note: not a “unipolar” world order, as a “pole” logically requires at least two opposites; to call it unipolar is incorrect both linguistically and logically). A tempest of liberalism, capitalism, postmodernism, globalization, and the “New World Order” was sweeping the globe. The United States had triumphed. The USSR had dissolved. The Warsaw Pact had collapsed. The Eastern Bloc had been consigned to history. The Berlin Wall had fallen. Socialism and communism had been defeated.

Under those circumstances, since NATO’s raison d’être had ceased to exist, it should logically have been consigned to history as well. Its utility was being questioned; people were asking whom it would protect, and against whom. Consequently, there was an active search for an enemy—or enemies—for NATO. And indeed, they were found.

Weapons of mass destruction and weapons of mass persuasion

NATO—which stood idly by, biding its time and waiting for the right conditions while Yugoslavia was being torn apart, its people massacred, and ethnic cleansing and mass rapes were being carried out—finally mobilized at the exact moment and under the specific conditions dictated by US imperialism, delivering a clear message to the world. It announced to the globe that its mandate now encompassed missions such as “peacebuilding, peacekeeping, and combating radical movements and terrorism.” This, of course, aligned seamlessly with the rhetoric of “human rights, freedom, democracy, and the civilized world” championed by the United States as NATO’s founding leader. For the United States cast itself as the guardian of these values and concepts; yet in their name, and hiding behind them, it attacked, bombed, and occupied other nations. It would go so far as to first instigate disputes and conflicts in target nations, lay the groundwork for ethnic, religious, and sectarian strife, actively encourage and provoke these clashes, and then proceed to occupy those countries under the pretext of resolving these very problems and restoring stability.

And there were millions of people across the world who believed these American lies. In particular, the US media, along with global outlets, academics, non-governmental organizations, and think tanks supported by Washington, operated virtually as weapons of mass persuasion, designed to convince and deceive the public.

The United States grew so arrogant in this policy that US Presidents began to declare this mission to be far more than a mere political duty—it was, they claimed, a religious, divine, and moral responsibility. The US peddled this falsehood in Iraq, as it did in Yugoslavia. As Yugoslavia was disintegrating—or being disintegrated—NATO sought to project an image and send a message that, as an alliance whose sole Muslim member was Türkiye, it was defending Muslim Bosniaks and Kosovars against Christian Serbs, thereby shielding the righteous and oppressed from the unjust and tyrannical.

The collapse of the Atlantic system

Years have passed. The global balance of power has shifted. The imperialist dominance and hegemonic capacity of the United States have eroded and continue to decay. Russia, particularly after Putin took power, staged a rapid recovery starting in the 2000s. It consolidated its influence, beginning with its near abroad. China, alongside its economic prowess, expanded its political, military, scientific, and technological power, emerging as the primary competitor and most worrisome adversary of the United States. Within the Atlantic system and the Western alliance—whose rules and institutions were established by the US itself—deep-seated divisions have emerged, running parallel to its fragmentation and loss of power. Under these conditions, the United States is both failing to manage its own deep internal fault lines and socio-class contradictions, and experiencing major friction with its allies. Its intent to reduce Canada to a mere province, its ambition to annex Danish-administered Greenland, its barbarism in Venezuela and Palestine, its joint aggression with Israel against Iran, and its threats directed at Cuba must all be interpreted through this lens.

In the past, an imperialist power would at least superficially fabricate lies to rationalize, justify, and legitimize its invasions, aggression, plunder, and barbarism. For instance, when the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001, immediately following the September 11 attacks, it cited the presence of Osama bin Laden—the Saudi leader of the Al-Qaeda terrorist network—in Afghanistan as its justification for the invasion. Similarly, during its 2003 invasion of Iraq, the US propagated the lie that “Saddam Hussein possesses chemical weapons and weapons of mass destruction.” When the German dictator Adolf Hitler invaded Poland in 1939, and the Italian dictator Mussolini invaded Abyssinia (Ethiopia) in 1935, they too presented historical, political, and geopolitical pretexts, however fabricated, to justify their actions.

Today, US imperialism does not even feel the need to construct such lies or manufacture pretexts. US President Trump openly talks of withdrawing from NATO, while scolding member states and insulting European leaders with arrogant remarks.

For this reason, NATO must be analyzed not by reading the words written in its founding treaty, but by grasping the shifting needs of US imperialism.

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Chinese diplomacy ascendant under Xi: All roads lead to Beijing

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Beginning in late 2025 and extending throughout 2026, one of the most striking developments in world politics has been the successive convergence of major powers upon Beijing. Direct, high-level engagement with China by actors at the very core of the global system—such as the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany—is widely interpreted as a potent signal of a shifting international order. These visits are indubitably far from routine diplomatic encounters. Rather, they represent symbolic and strategic maneuvers indicative of a fundamental realignment of the world’s power centers. In particular, the intensive engagement with China by four of the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council within a brief window demonstrates that Beijing has evolved far beyond a mere economic powerhouse, establishing itself as a principal locus of global diplomacy.

For decades, the global order was predominantly US-centric. Following the end of the Cold War, the United States attained an unrivaled position militarily, economically, and diplomatically. China, conversely, was viewed as a rapidly growing economy defined primarily by its manufacturing capacity and cheap labor force. While Beijing possessed influence within the global system, the primary decision-making mechanisms of world politics remained firmly anchored in Washington. However, the transformation of the past two decades has elevated China from a mere economic giant to the epicenter of global strategic competition.

Today, China stands as one of the most pivotal actors in world trade. The vast majority of global supply chains are intricately linked to Chinese networks. Across a multitude of critical sectors—ranging from electric vehicles and battery technologies to artificial intelligence and solar energy—China has established itself as both a dominant producer and a global standard-setter. This immense economic capacity has naturally engendered commensurate political and diplomatic leverage. Global leaders now recognize that international challenges cannot be effectively managed by bypassing or ignoring China.

It is precisely here that the core significance of these recent visits to China becomes apparent. Donald Trump’s journey to Beijing to meet with Xi Jinping underscored that despite the intense rivalry between Washington and Beijing, direct engagement has become an absolute necessity. Similarly, while Vladimir Putin’s strategic alignment with China has long been established, Moscow’s deepened cooperation with Beijing in the wake of its profound crisis with the West has significantly bolstered China’s geopolitical weight across Eurasia. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit was interpreted as a sign of Europe pivoting toward a more pragmatic trajectory in its policy toward China. The prior engagements of French President Emmanuel Macron had already demonstrated that Europe has no desire for a complete decoupling from China. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s discussions in Beijing were particularly noteworthy from an economic standpoint, as the Chinese market remains indispensable to German industry. Furthermore, the intensive diplomatic relations maintained by Serbian President Alexander Vučić with China demonstrate that Beijing’s influence on the European continent is by no means confined to major Western European states. Through infrastructure investments, transport projects, technology transfers, and defense cooperation in recent years, Serbia has emerged as one of China’s closest partners in Europe.

The common denominator among these visits was the pursuit of direct engagement with Xi Jinping. Xi is no longer viewed merely as the leader of China; for many nations, he has become a preeminent figure shaping the future of the global system. The transformation of China under Xi into a more centralized, visionary state structured around long-term strategic planning has magnified the personal significance of his leadership. Today, the international community is intensely focused on Xi Jinping’s decision-making. Consequently, pilgrimages to Beijing represent an effort to establish a direct, unmediated channel to Xi himself.

Symbolism is of paramount importance here; in international politics, the optics of “who travels to meet whom” are central to the perception of power. If global leaders continuously travel to Beijing while Xi travels sparingly—yet remains the figure everyone seeks to audience with—it naturally reinforces the message: Xi Jinping is no longer just the leader of China, but a chief architect of the global system. Remarkably, Xi’s reduced international travel has not diluted China’s influence. On the contrary, Beijing’s emergence as the primary destination of diplomatic pilgrimage projects an image of profound self-assurance. To many observers, this stands as one of the most visible symbols of a shifting world order. By rendering their respects in Beijing as much as in Washington, global leaders signal that the global equation is now being formulated here.

This shift is driven by tangible geopolitical realities. The contemporary world operates within a highly interdependent framework. While intense competition defines US-China relations, their economies remain deeply intertwined, rendering total decoupling virtually impossible. Across a vast spectrum of critical arenas—including trade, semiconductor technology, artificial intelligence, energy security, the Taiwan question, the Russia-Ukraine war, the Iranian crisis, and global supply chains—China has emerged as a decisive actor. Consequently, no major power, including Washington, can formulate a viable global strategy by sidelining China.

For Europe in particular, the China question has grown increasingly complex. The period between 2022 and 2024 saw Europe adopt a more hawkish and distant posture toward Beijing. However, slowing economic growth, energy crises, and trade frictions with the United States have compelled Europe to seek a more balanced approach. The pivot of European leaders toward Beijing reveals that complete economic decoupling from China would carry prohibitive costs for Europe. This dynamic also underscores the divergent internal priorities within the US-led Western bloc.

China’s rise should not be viewed solely through the prism of its relations with the West; the sphere of influence Beijing has cultivated across the Global South is of equal significance. In recent years, Chinese influence has expanded dramatically across Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, the Gulf States, and South Asia. Within this context, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to China carries profound weight. The China-Pakistan relationship has long been characterized as an “ironclad friendship.” Through the Belt and Road Initiative, China has constructed ports, railways, energy facilities, and critical infrastructure in numerous countries, most notably Pakistan. Furthermore, unlike Western financial institutions, Beijing extends credit and investment with fewer political conditionalities. Consequently, many developing nations view China not only as a vital economic partner but also as a geopolitical counterweight to the West.

All of this inevitably raises the question: “Is China ascendant?” Based on the current landscape, the answer must be in the affirmative. For global leaders, Beijing has now emerged as a diplomatic hub as critical as Washington. Moreover, beyond its sheer economic scale, China is increasingly distinguished by its capacity for conflict resolution. Its pivotal role in facilitating the Iran-Saudi Arabia normalization, coupled with its close ties to Russia and its sweeping influence over the Global South, has significantly amplified Beijing’s diplomatic gravity.

The diplomatic traffic observed throughout 2026 highlights a fundamental truth: the world is no longer unipolar or monocivilizational. Opposite the United States stands a China capable of challenging it economically, technologically, culturally, and diplomatically. Consequently, this new era diverges sharply from the unipolar structure of the “American Century,” resembling instead a multipolar, multi-civilizational order where all actors cooperate and compete with one another simultaneously.

Xi Jinping’s position is central to this paradigm shift. For many leaders today, meeting with Xi in Beijing is not merely a matter of bilateral diplomacy, but a strategic imperative for positioning oneself within the global balance of power. This has immensely enhanced Xi’s personal prestige. Within the international system, there is a growing consensus that on most critical issues, “if Beijing is not at the table, no resolution can be complete.” The acceleration of visits to China since late 2025 is not merely a reflection of a crowded diplomatic calendar; it must be understood as a tangible indicator of a shifting world order. Beijing has transcended its status as an economic core to become one of the primary power centers of global politics. Consequently, Chinese President Xi Jinping is emerging as one of the most influential figures of this new, multipolar, and multi-civilizational world order.

Today, the diplomatic traffic directed toward Beijing is by no means limited to the United States, Russia, or the major European powers. The efforts of leaders from a vast geographical span—from Serbia and Pakistan to the Gulf States and African nations—to establish direct contact with China render Beijing’s central position in the global system increasingly conspicuous. Consequently, these recent visits are interpreted as signs that the power map of the new international order is being redrawn. For many capitals, the path to understanding global developments and formulating future strategies now runs through Beijing as much as it does through Washington. Thus, the adage “All roads lead to Beijing” is rapidly transforming from a rhetorical trope into a defining reality of contemporary international politics.

Umur Tugay Yücel – Political Scientist & Author of the book “The Decline of American Power and the Rising Powers” (China-Russia-India-Brazil).

X: @umur_tugay

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