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Diplomacy

US and Canada avert trade escalation after tariff threats

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The US and Canada reached a mini-détente in their trade war on Tuesday, following a heated exchange between President Donald Trump and Ontario Premier Doug Ford.

After meeting with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Ford announced Tuesday afternoon that Ontario would suspend its 25% tariffs on electricity exports to three US states, which had been imposed a day earlier.

In a joint statement, Ford and Lutnick said, “Secretary Lutnick has agreed to formally meet with Premier Ford in Washington on Thursday, March 13, along with the US Trade Representative, to discuss a renewed USMCA [US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement]. In return, Ontario has agreed to suspend its 25% surtax on electricity exports to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota.”

Following this, Trump told reporters at the White House that he would “probably” call off his threat to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, which were scheduled to take effect as his first order of business on Wednesday.

Trump said, “As you know, there’s a very strong gentleman in Canada who said he was going to charge a surcharge or a tariff on electricity coming into our country. He called, and he said he’s not going to do it. Okay, I’m not going to do it. It would have been a very bad thing if he did, and he’s not going to do it, so I respect that.”

White House spokesperson Kush Desai later confirmed in a statement that the tariffs would not be doubled.

Desai said, “President Trump has once again used the leverage of the American economy, the best and biggest in the world, to make the American people win. As per previous executive orders, the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, with no exceptions or exemptions, will go into effect for Canada and all our other trading partners at midnight on March 12.”

The conciliatory statements followed several hours of heated rhetoric between the American and Canadian leaders, which began with a post by Trump on his social media platform, Truth Social, attacking Ontario’s electricity tariffs.

Ford had imposed the tariffs in retaliation for Trump’s initial 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods, which went into effect on March 4.

The White House later announced that it was rolling back most of those tariffs following pressure from US automakers, farmers, and other American industries.

In his post Tuesday morning, Trump wrote, “I HAVE INSTRUCTED MY COMMERCE SECRETARY TO ADD AN ADDITIONAL 25% TARIFF, FOR A TOTAL OF 50%, ON ALL STEEL AND ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS IN THE WORLD. This will go into effect TOMORROW MORNING, March 12.”

Trump also said in his lengthy Truth Social post that he would declare a national emergency over electricity, which would allow the US to “expeditiously do what has to be done to mitigate this threat of malice coming in from Canada.”

Repeating his demand that Canada join the US as the “51st state,” the President wrote, “The artificial dividing line drawn many years ago will finally be gone, and we will have the safest and most beautiful Nation anywhere in the world, and your gorgeous anthem ‘O Canada’ will continue to play, but now representing a BIG and POWERFUL STATE within the greatest Nation the World has ever seen!”

Ford immediately responded in an interview with MSNBC, saying, “It doesn’t make sense to fight this way, but I will respond appropriately on electricity. Stay tuned.”

Meanwhile, POLITICO reported that some of Trump’s allies are blaming Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick for the tariff mishaps.

According to the report, White House and administration officials, as well as Trump’s outside allies, are increasingly frustrated with Lutnick and privately complain about his closeness to the president and his advising him on economic matters.

They claim that Lutnick, who has recently appeared on television, does not even understand the basics of how tariffs and the economy work, and they also point out that he has contradicted the President’s messages at many points in the past week.

One source, suggesting that Lutnick was trying to be a “mini-Trump,” said, “I don’t think he got the message that only Trump can be Trump.”

Lutnick, the former CEO of the financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald, comes from Wall Street, which has traditionally been skeptical of tariffs, but shares the views of many in the pro-tariff community.

Diplomacy

CSTO strips Armenia of voting rights over two-year budget debt

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Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have stripped Armenia of its voting rights and its ability to appoint representatives to official positions due to a two-year debt to the organization’s budget.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “This decision was taken based on the organization’s charter due to Armenia’s failure to fulfil its obligations for several years.”

Prior to the CSTO leaders’ summit in Moscow, Peskov had stated that member states would “react” to the Caucasus country’s non-participation in the organization’s activities.

Ahead of the Moscow summit, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his country’s “interest has run out” regarding the CSTO. Through his press spokesperson, he announced that he would travel to Türkiye on 11 November to attend the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) instead of going to Russia.

The CSTO leaders’ meeting was held with the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin alongside the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

The leaders jointly took the decision to revoke Armenia’s voting rights.

At the conclusion of the meeting, the participants also signed a joint declaration.

The declaration stated: “We confirm our unconditional commitment to the goals set out in the CSTO treaty and charter towards creating favourable and stable conditions for the comprehensive development of member states.”

Pashinyan had frozen Yerevan’s de facto participation in the CSTO in February 2024, citing the organization’s failure to aid the Armenian side during the armed clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.

Having referred to the CSTO as a “soap-bubble alliance” since that time, Pashinyan accused the organization’s members of “planning war” together with Baku. He stated that Armenia would not return to active work within the alliance at least “over the next five years”, adding that he would welcome it if the country were expelled from membership.

Relations between Armenia and Russia grew tense once again in the spring of 2026, after Yerevan moved closer to the European Union (EU) and the Kremlin responded with a trade war.

In May, Pashinyan refused to travel to Moscow to attend the Victory Day parade and declared that he did not support Russia on the Ukraine issue.

In response, Putin called on Yerevan to determine its foreign policy course through a referendum, advising Armenian authorities not to forget the fate of Ukraine.

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Diplomacy

US urges Russia to draft proposals for new European security pact

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The US administration has reportedly called on Russia to submit proposals for a prospective security treaty with Europe that would include measures to ease tensions between European nations and Moscow.

According to a report by news site Axios citing sources familiar with the matter, the US side conveyed the request during trilateral negotiations held in Abu Dhabi.

During the talks, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner suggested that the Russian delegation prepare a fresh proposal outlining its security concerns and demands.

The US delegation reportedly asked that this proposal clarify what kind of “symmetrical steps” Moscow is prepared to take to de-escalate tensions and “provide non-aggression guarantees to Europe”.

Another source familiar with the White House’s approach said the Trump administration aims to run the processes for a new European security architecture and a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine simultaneously.

Under this plan, the actual implementation of the security understandings would take effect only after the signing of an accord ending the conflict in Ukraine.

Assessing the approach to the process, the source said: “[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy will not agree to any compromise without knowing what will happen next regarding security guarantees. Putin also wants to see the exact same picture clearly. This is precisely why the security portfolio is so decisive.”

The same official noted that the US will not reach a security agreement with Russia without the support of Europe and Ukraine, adding that Washington will not grant Moscow veto power over European security decisions.

Vladimir Medinsky, aide to the Russian president and head of the delegation in the Ukraine negotiations, previously stated that the fundamental objective was building a comprehensive new security system in Europe.

Medinsky noted that the structure in question must take on the character of “a fair, new, modern Yalta and Potsdam that carries the spirit of Helsinki 1975 and responds to contemporary realities”.

The Russian official argued that if such a system were established, peace lasting for decades, or even centuries, could be secured in Europe.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also announced that Moscow possesses its own position paper on how a new security architecture in Eurasia should take shape.

Lavrov stated that Russia hopes the Washington administration will “maintain its determination to pursue dialogue aimed at achieving an honest balance of interests where nobody’s security is impaired”.

Russian authorities have repeatedly stated that the country has no intention of attacking Europe.

Pointing out that they have no reason to fight NATO countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin previously said: “We have no interest whatsoever, neither geopolitical nor economic, political nor military.”

In a statement in October, Putin said Russia has no plans to attack anyone “in 2029, in 2030, or in the year 2050”.

On the other hand, Putin claimed that “all NATO countries are fighting Russia” and stated that the Russian military is currently the most combat-ready armed force in the world.

Following the contacts in Abu Dhabi, Kushner announced that he and Witkoff would travel to Moscow.

Explaining that they plan to meet Putin during the visit to discuss European participation in negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict, Kushner argued that the parties could make “far greater progress” if the Russian leader consents to such involvement.

Yury Ushakov, aide to the Russian president, stated that the US special envoys will arrive in Moscow on 12 November, with the planned meeting with the Russian president scheduled for the first half of the day.

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Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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