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DIPLOMACY

AUKUS accelerates expansion plans

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The United States, Australia and the United Kingdom are rushing to expand the trilateral AUKUS defence partnership to include more allied countries ahead of elections likely to be held in all three countries in the next 14 months.

A senior diplomat involved in the talks told POLITICO that Japan and Canada are lined up to join the so-called Pillar 2 of the AUKUS agreement in late 2024 or early 2025, where the participants will sign up to extensive military technology cooperation.

There are concerns in Washington, London and Canberra that Donald Trump could withdraw or shelve the AUKUS agreement if he wins the presidential election in November.

Deepening cooperation under the second pillar

The AUKUS agreement was first announced in September 2021. The first part of the agreement, Pillar 1, involves the US and UK helping Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines.

Pillar 2 of the agreement allows the three countries to enter into agreements to develop advanced military technology in areas such as artificial intelligence, hypersonic missiles and quantum technologies.

It has always been envisaged that the second pillar could be extended to other US allies; Japan, Canada, New Zealand and South Korea are among those who have expressed a willingness to join the agreement.

Elections in Pact countries accelerate process

A second diplomat involved in the talks said that US President Joe Biden’s administration was now “really pushing hard to get some things done now on the second pillar before the US elections in November, when Trump could retake the White House”.

“The president and his partners have made clear that we will look for opportunities to engage with other allies and close partners as our work on Pillar 2 moves forward,” a White House official told POLITICO.

Although he has not yet spoken publicly about the AUKUS deal, Trump ramped up his ‘America First’ rhetoric during the election campaign, fuelling expectations that he could adopt a more ‘isolationist’ foreign policy stance.

The UK will hold a general election later this year, while Australia will go to the polls in May 2025.

If Trump is elected, Western leaders may ask, ‘What the hell are we going to do now?’

“The return of American isolationism is a risk for the Indo-Pacific,” one diplomat told POLITICO, adding that if Trump wins, there will be a moment when Western leaders will call each other and ask, “What the hell are we going to do now?

“If Pillar 2 fails, then AUCUS will also fail, because we could have only done one submarine deal, even if it was a very large submarine deal. We are very confident that we will have some of the Pillar 2 deals done by the end of this year,” the officials said.

A MoD official said there was ‘momentum to get Pillar 2 done as soon as possible’ and that there were ‘ongoing discussions about what Pillar 2 will look like’.

It is stressed that no decision has been taken on the participation of Japan and South Korea in the pact. New Zealand Defence Minister Judith Collins recently said there was ‘no guarantee’ that her country would be invited to join the second pillar of AUKUS.

Cameron and Shapps head to Australia

British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps will travel to Australia this week for talks with their Australian counterparts.

The two will also meet with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who is expected to brief the public in Canberra on the nuclear submarine project amid concerns that America’s decision to cut submarine production could jeopardise the AUKUS agreement.

“We continue to explore opportunities to engage with our allies and close partners as work on AUKUS Pillar 2 progresses. Any decisions on the participation of other states in specific projects as part of the AUKUS Advanced Capability work will be taken trilaterally and announced at the appropriate time”.

DIPLOMACY

Taiwan campaign in the European Parliament: Delegation visits Taipei

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In an initiative led by German politicians, the European Parliament (EP) is advocating for Taiwan’s inclusion in UN organizations. A recent visit by an EP delegation to Taipei has intensified tensions concerning Taiwan.

Last week, the EP adopted a resolution urging Taiwan’s inclusion in UN agencies, such as the World Health Organization (WHO). The resolution directly challenges UN Resolution 2758 from 1971, which excludes Taiwanese representation in the UN and its agencies.

This stance represents a significant challenge to the “one China” principle—a sensitive issue for Beijing, where any deviation from this policy is viewed as a potential trigger for severe repercussions, including military conflict.

The draft resolution was proposed by members of the Inter-Parliamentary China Alliance (IPAC), a lobbying organization active internationally. IPAC has promoted similar resolutions in other legislatures, with a German IPAC member currently leading an EP delegation in Taiwan.

Taiwan as a ‘key partner’ of the EU

The EP’s resolution, passed with a substantial majority (432 votes in favor, 60 against, and 71 abstentions), advocates for a strong stance against China on the Taiwan issue, emphasizing the importance of supporting Taiwan’s autonomy.

According to the resolution, Taiwan is an “important partner” for the EU, and closer cooperation is encouraged. Specifically, it promotes the exchange of parliamentary delegations, enhanced political cooperation, and deeper collaboration in science, education, culture, sports, and regional partnerships. Additional technical cooperation is proposed with Taiwanese fire and police services.

The resolution also calls on the European Commission to initiate negotiations on a bilateral investment agreement “without delay.” It stresses the need for Taiwan’s inclusion in international bodies, such as UN agencies like WHO, as well as organizations like Interpol and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

UN Resolution 2758: A contentious interpretation

The EP references UN Resolution 2758 (25 October 1971) to support its call for Taiwan’s inclusion in multilateral organizations. This resolution shifted UN recognition from Taiwan, represented as the “Republic of China,” to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the “sole legitimate representative of China.”

UN Resolution 2758 excluded “the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek” from the UN, resulting in Taiwan’s loss of representation in UN agencies. The EP argues that this resolution makes no explicit reference to Taiwan’s status, accusing Beijing of “falsifying history and international norms” by using this resolution to justify its claims over Taiwan.

Building a lobby against China

Following the EP’s example, similar resolutions were passed by the Australian Senate on August 21, 2024, and by the Dutch Lower House on September 12, 2024. These actions align with IPAC’s goal of encouraging parliamentary support for Taiwan across various countries. IPAC was established in June 2020, with German Green politician Reinhard Bütikofer among its founders, as part of an effort to “counter the rise of the People’s Republic of China.”

Comprising roughly 250 members from 40 parliaments, IPAC regularly initiates resolutions on China-related issues.

IPAC’s ‘model resolution’

In late July, IPAC adopted a “model resolution” that seeks a reinterpretation of UN Resolution 2758, aiming to allow Taiwan’s participation in “international organizations,” including UN agencies. IPAC advocates for comprehensive support for “Taiwan’s legitimate aspirations for broader engagement in UN organizations and beyond.”

The Australian Senate resolution was backed by IPAC members Senator David Fawcett (Liberal Party) and Senator Deborah O’Neill (Labor Party), while the Dutch resolution was proposed by IPAC member Jan Paternotte (Democrats 66). German IPAC members also played key roles in the EP’s resolution, particularly Engin Eroğlu (Freie Wähler) and MEP Michael Gahler (CDU).

EP delegation examines cooperation opportunities in Taiwan

Led by IPAC member Michael Gahler, a European Parliament delegation arrived in Taiwan on Sunday for a six-day visit. The delegation, which includes Bernard Guetta of Macron’s Renaissance party, plans to meet with Taiwanese officials, including Vice-President Hsiao Bi-khim and Vice Foreign Minister François Wu, as well as visit the Taiwanese parliament.

The delegation aims to strengthen EU-Taiwan economic ties, assess the geopolitical landscape, and “explore opportunities for future cooperation.”

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Germany increases arms exports to Israel

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Contrary to the European trend, Germany has increased its arms exports to Israel in the second half of the year.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Germany, which has longstanding historical ties with Israel, became Europe’s largest arms supplier to Israel between 2019 and 2023.

The first few months of this year saw a decrease in export licenses, reportedly due to rising civilian casualties during Israel’s military actions in Gaza and Lebanon. However, since August, the German government has approved arms exports valued at €94.05 million, as reported by dpa on Thursday, citing the German Foreign Ministry.

This amount is more than double the €45.74 million in exports from the beginning of the year to October 13, according to data provided by the Economics Ministry to the Bundestag’s economic committee last week.

Germany’s increased exports come at a time when other EU countries are moving to reduce arms supplies to Israel. Two weeks ago, French President Emmanuel Macron called for an end to arms exports used in the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, even though France is not a major supplier. Italy and Spain, two of Israel’s top 10 suppliers, have stopped signing new export contracts, while the UK has suspended export licenses for military operations in Gaza.

Did Germany seek assurances?

Last year, the German government approved arms exports to Israel worth €326.5 million. Most of the export licenses were granted immediately following Operation Aqsa Flood on October 7.

However, government data shows that only €14.42 million worth of deliveries were approved between January and August 21.

During a parliamentary debate earlier this month, the main opposition party, the CDU, accused Chancellor Olaf Scholz of tacitly halting exports to Israel. In response, Scholz stated that Germany “has supplied weapons and will continue to supply weapons,” adding that decisions had been made to “ensure further deliveries in the near future.”

Investigations by the Bild newspaper revealed that Green ministers in Germany’s coalition government temporarily halted new arms exports to Israel in March over concerns about compliance with international law. The German government had requested written assurances from Israel that the weapons would be used in accordance with international law. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock recently confirmed that such a letter had been received.

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Brazil does not support Venezuela’s entry to the BRICS

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In the Russian city of Kazan, the annual summit of the BRICS countries took place, the sixteenth since its founding, in 2006. It was attended by 36 States, 22 presidents, including the Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro Moros, and six international organizations, between them the United Nations, represented by its Secretary General, Antonio Guterres.

President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, traveled to Kazan accompanied by Foreign Minister Iván Gil, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, and other officials such as the Minister of Communication, Freddy Ñáñez.

The Venezuelan president praised the emergence of a bloc of emerging countries such as the BRICS, which in his opinion, “has become the epicenter of the new world, the pluripolar world, the world of the future.” Likewise, Maduro invited the BRICS countries to develop a UN reform plan.

The BRICS are a very enriching space for dialogue, said Maduro, “a permanent search to build a new international order; A new era has emerged, new superpowers and countries to which we aspire to have our independence respected, I came from the modesty of Venezuela to propose several ideas:

– The BRICS emerged at a time when there was a change of era, with the emergence of new superpowers.

– Establish an economic agenda with bolder and more practical solutions and steps for international trade, we need a new global monetary system.

– It is urgent to refund the United Nations System, #UN, which is dying with every bomb that falls on the Arab and Muslim peoples due to fascism; It cannot be that the Court of Justice only serves for Communiqués, but there are no actions against massacres.

Commander Chávez told us: “the time has come for a new, pluripolar, multicentric world,” which is why I assure you that the BRICS can count on Venezuela and the Bolivarian force for our historical project,” said president Maduro.

The President of Venezuela also participated in the first plenary session of the summit of the Outreach/BRICS Plus formats, in which he proposed a new global financial system and insisted on the need to advance in the consolidation of the BRICS Bank.

According to press statements by President Maduro, the Venezuelan delegation participated in more than 200 meetings, in which meetings with other state leaders stand out, such as the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin; the President of the Palestinian Autonomous Government, Mahmoud Abbas; the President of Belarus, Aleksandr Lukashenko; the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmed Ali; the President of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan; the President of Bolivia, Luis Arce and the President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, among others.

“Our countries, #Iran and #Venezuela, have always maintained this unbreakable unity, we continue to give a message to the world with giant steps to consolidate the construction of the #MultipolarWorld. We are a unitary bloc that is moving towards a geopolitics without colonialism or hegemony!”

In these meetings, positive assessments emerged about the Venezuelan president. Vladimir Putin of Russia recognized Venezuela as “one of Russia’s old and reliable partners in Latin America and the world in general,” Belarusian President Lukashenko expressed his admiration for Maduro’s leadership and his confidence in the ability of Venezuela to obtain victories at the international level, this last specific quality is required by the members of the Brics for the election of new members.

The alliance that initially included Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa has expanded this year to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Since then, it has been known as “BRICS+”. Although the entry of new members into the organization was not part of the agenda, President Vladimir Putin, in September 2024, stated that thirty-four (34) States They wanted cooperation “in various forms,” ​​including some from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS former republics of the Soviet Union), Africa, South America and Southeast Asia. Among these states is Venezuela, which participated in the summit. as a guest, like the other countries that do not make up the bloc.

Once the small-format meeting concluded, the BRIC member countries met with the invited countries.

Final declaration XVI BRICS summit

The BRICS Summit concluded its meeting with a declaration containing 134 points, of which the following stand out:

  • Reform of the United Nations (UN). The countries of the BRICS group reaffirmed their commitment to the comprehensive reform of the UN.

  • Encourage the use of national currencies.

  • They reaffirmed their commitment to deepening economic cooperation to achieve a lasting, sustainable, balanced and inclusive recovery in this area, in search of an improvement in the global economy.

  • Create a new investment platform, which allows the existing institutional infrastructure of the New BRICS Development Bank (NBD) to be used more effectively to increase the flow of investments in the BRICS countries and the mechanisms of the Global South.

  • Express concern about sanctions and their negative impact on the economy and global trade.

  • Promote the entry of Palestine into the UN, based on the concept of the coexistence of two States, based on international law.

  • Promote a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and “urgently and without preconditions release all hostages and detainees on both sides, (…) and ensure unrestricted, sustainable and large-scale delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip “, it was specified in the document.

  • Reaffirmation of commitment to the conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, based on the ideal that peace and security in these regions must be achieved and maintained in accordance with and with full respect for international law and the Charter of the United Nations.

  • Guarantee mediation in the Ukrainian conflict, in search of a peaceful solution through dialogue and diplomacy.

  • Strengthen the non-proliferation and disarmament regime, recognizing its role in maintaining global stability.

  • Prevent the deployment of weapons in space and the threat or use of force against targets located in space.

No new members and Brazil’s veto

The XVI BRICS Summit has also marked the path that new applicants to enter the bloc must follow. The BRICS leaders have decided to only grant the status of “partners” and not “members” to those countries that meet certain criteria; In addition, these new members will not have the right to vote, only the members will have it. In the BRICS there is no right to veto, but it is necessary to reach a consensus among all the founding members.

It is important to note that at this XVI BRICS Summit the incorporation of new members to the bloc was not discussed and that the final declaration of the meeting does not reflect a list of new countries to join the BRICS. However, from the bilateral meetings and press conferences, especially from the statements of the Russian president, it was learned that the Brazilian government was opposed to Venezuela being included in a list of possible future partners at this time. of the block.

The Member States (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and the current Partner States (Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia) have already agreed on a first list of possible new partner countries, to start the path towards enlargement. “We have agreed with the partners that in the first phase, taking into account a possible enlargement, we will follow the path of agreeing on a list of partner countries. Such a list has already been agreed upon,” Putin said.

After the negotiations at this summit, and the support expressed by the member states with the right to vote, the following countries have been left with the possibility of becoming “BRICS partners”, after meeting the bloc’s expansion criteria: Algeria, Belarus , Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. Afghanistan, Nicaragua and Venezuela would not have had the support of Brazil to join the list of candidates.

Controversy over Brazil’s position

Putin was in charge of explaining that Lula had been responsible for Venezuela not being on the list of possible new partners of BRICS. Putin said that although he thinks differently from Lula because he does recognize Maduro as the legitimate president of Venezuela, the decisions of the BRICS are made by consensus, so he wants Venezuela and Brazil to be able to resolve their differences.

Among the antecedents that led to Brazil’s current position, we find the request of the Brazilian Foreign Ministry to the Venezuelan government to grant safe conduct to the six (6) Venezuelan opponents who confined themselves to the residence of the Argentine Embassy in Caracas. Let us remember that Argentinian president Javier Milei, after breaking relations with Venezuela, left the custody of the Argentine diplomatic residence in charge of Lula, but Venezuelan government withdrew that possibility when assassination plans against President Maduro and Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, devised by the coup plotters, were discovered.

Also, the statements of Prosecutor Tarek William Saab in which he accused the leaders of Chile and Brazil of being functional agents of the CIA, continued to forge a climate of tension and low-intensity conflict that damaged the already fragile bilateral relationship between Caracas and Brasilia. This despite the fact that our Foreign Ministry distanced itself from the Attorney General’s statements.

However, the most important fact that triggered Brazil’s position remains that, in a clear act of interference in the internal affairs of Venezuela, Lula has maintained that he will not recognize any winner of the Venezuelan presidential elections of July 28, until the government of Venezuela or the opposition shows the electoral minutes. This interventionist position by Lula is proof that mutual trust has been lost and that the relationship between Venezuela and Brazil is going through its worst moment.

Faced with Brazil’s de facto veto, Venezuelan Foreign Ministry, Yván Gil, has issued a statement highlighting the importance of Venezuela for the BRICS and the Global South, while at the same time exposing Lula’s questioned actions.

Despite this bilateral impasse between Caracas and Brasilia, the incorporation of Venezuela into the BRICS must be seen as a long-term objective, as a process that will require a different diplomacy and further strengthen alliances. Venezuela’s entry into the BRICS is not a utopia; sooner rather than later, it will be a reality.

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