Diplomacy
Global South agenda to take centre stage at G20 Summit in Brazil
This year’s Group of 20 (G20) summit begins today in Rio de Janeiro, with host nation Brazil emphasizing climate solutions and reform of international institutions. The summit occurs against the backdrop of rising economic inequality and an increasingly fragmented world order.
Leaders from the world’s 20 largest economies, including outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are convening in Rio. Russia has sent a delegation led by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, while Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House and escalating global conflicts, particularly in Ukraine, are expected to dominate discussions.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, recovering from a recent head injury, will preside over meetings with the African Union, the European Union, and the G20’s 19 other member states. As a former factory worker turned left-wing leader, Lula aims to build on India’s presidency by championing the interests of the Global South—a term describing less affluent economies historically marginalized by institutions dominated by wealthy, predominantly Western countries.
Brazil’s leadership marks a continuation of Global South representation in the G20, following presidencies by Indonesia and India, with South Africa set to take the helm before the United States assumes the role in 2026. This aligns with the recent expansion of BRICS—a multilateral coalition of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—which now includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.
Sunaina Kumar, a senior fellow at India’s Observer Research Foundation, told Nikkei Asia that the G20 presidency’s rotation is “very important.” She highlighted that successive leadership from Global South nations amplifies their agenda amid a shifting world order. “Brazil built on India’s presidency, and India built on Indonesia,” Kumar explained. “With each presidency, the Global South agenda grows stronger and louder.” She cited the African Union’s inclusion at the 2023 New Delhi summit as a key example.
Meanwhile, Russia and China are leveraging BRICS to promote an alternative to the U.S.-led world order, engaging new partners such as Indonesia, Thailand, and Turkey. While trade within BRICS nations expands, the coalition’s influence within the G20 remains constrained by the divergent priorities of its members.
Stewart Patrick, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted in a recent report that G20 members like Brazil, India, and South Africa—along with Saudi Arabia, a BRICS invitee—benefit from keeping their strategic options open. He described their dual membership in both groups as an “inside-outside game,” enabling them to advocate for global governance reform in the G20 while fostering counter-hegemonic cooperation through BRICS Plus.
Under Brazil’s leadership, G20 discussions will address modernizing Western-led institutions such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization (WTO). Key agenda items include combating hunger and poverty, addressing climate change, and advancing clean energy initiatives. The summit is expected to culminate in a declaration advocating for peaceful resolutions to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
For Lula, the G20 represents a diplomatic balancing act akin to Indian Prime Minister Modi’s approach. Both leaders have maintained friendly ties with Russia, despite Western efforts to impose sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
This year’s summit also unfolds amid speculation about the potential impact of Trump’s return to the White House. The world is watching to see how the next U.S. administration may shift its policies on Ukraine and Russia. Recently, the Biden administration authorized Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles to target Russian territory, underscoring the complexity of U.S. involvement in global conflicts.
Joshua Meltzer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, observed that the G20’s significance has diminished under Biden due to U.S.-China tensions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. In contrast, the G7 has become “much more important” as a forum for advanced economies. However, Meltzer warned of a “destructive” dynamic that could emerge during a second Trump presidency, similar to his first term’s impact on the G7.
Although Western influence in the G20 may rise under Trump, experts believe that key developing countries will continue to champion the Global South agenda in the years ahead.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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