America
Policymakers gather in Washington as Middle East tensions swell
The spring meetings of the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are taking place in Washington from 17-19 April.
Finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world are attending the spring meetings, and among the topics on the agenda are debt relief for countries in difficulty, the Ukraine issue and what to do with Russia’s confiscated assets.
Of course, the interest rate/inflation cycle and the fate of possible interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve are also on the agenda. Equity markets were thrown into a bit of turmoil this week when Fed Chairman Jay Powell signalled that the Fed was in no hurry to cut interest rates.
According to IMF President Kristalina Georgieva, the Fed is doing the right thing. “The Fed is not yet ready to cut, and rightly so,” Georgieva told Bloomberg on Thursday.
Noting that the key question at the Washington meetings is “how long the Fed will keep rates high”, the IMF chief said “all countries are talking about it and all eyes are on the US”.
Georgieva argued that the strengthening of the dollar was “of course worrying” and said that the economy was “somewhat overheating”, partly due to the US fiscal stance.
Georgieva added that she remains optimistic that conditions in the US will allow the Fed to start cutting interest rates later this year.
Georgieva calls for fiscal tightening
Georgieva also called on advanced economies, which have greatly increased their debt levels in recent years, to tighten their fiscal policies to deal with the pandemic crisis.
“Countries urgently need to build fiscal resilience for the next shock. It is important to rebuild fiscal buffers,” she said.
According to Georgieva, she argued that central banks struggling with inflation could also “get some help from the fiscal side”.
Georgieva’s comments before the start of the meetings were also relatively “pessimistic”. According to her, “a stagnant and disappointing decade” lies ahead. Without a course correction,” the IMF chief said, “we are heading for the tepid twenties”.
Georgieva’s comments echoed the findings of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report. The report said: “Faced with a variety of headwinds, the outlook for future growth has also deteriorated. Looking ahead five years, global growth is projected to slow to just over 3 percent by 2029. Our analysis suggests that by the end of the decade, growth could be about one percentage point below the pre-pandemic (2000-19) average. This threatens to reverse improvements in living standards, while the imbalance of the slowdown between richer and poorer countries could limit prospects for global income convergence,” the report says.
The report stresses that a prolonged low-growth scenario, coupled with higher interest rates, could threaten debt sustainability and limit the ability of governments to tackle economic stagnation and invest in “social or environmental initiatives”.
Development of poor countries will have to wait for another spring
Half of the world’s 75 poorest countries have seen their income gap with the richest economies widen for the first time this century, marking a historic reversal in development, the World Bank said in a report published on Monday.
According to the report, the gap between per capita income growth in the poorest countries and per capita income growth in the richest countries has continued to widen over the past five years.
Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist at the World Bank and one of the report’s authors, told Reuters: “For the first time we see that there is no convergence. They are getting poorer. We are seeing a very serious structural regression, a reversal in the world … so we are ringing alarm bells here,” Mr Köse told Reuters.
The report said 75 countries eligible for grants and interest-free loans from the World Bank’s International Development Association (IDA) risked a lost decade of development without ambitious policy changes and significant international support.
Köse said that growth in many IDA countries had already started to decline before the COVID-19 pandemic, but that 2020-2024 will see the weakest half-decade of growth (3.4 per cent) since the early 1990s.
More than half of the IDA countries are in sub-Saharan Africa, 14 in East Asia and eight in Latin America and the Caribbean. Thirty-one of these countries have a per capita income of less than $1,315 per year. These include the Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan and Haiti.
Conversely, in addition to the ‘tactical’ considerations that the Fed must take into account when determining its interest rate policy, fluctuations in bond markets indicate that a significant rethink may be required regarding the eventuality of interest rates once the latest inflationary wave has passed.
The two-year US Treasury yield, which is highly sensitive to short-term Fed policy, has risen in recent months as might be expected. However, longer-term yields have followed the same pattern.The 10-year US Treasury bond, which stood at 3.87% at the beginning of February, was yielding 4.63% two days ago.With the exception of a few weeks last autumn, long-term yields have not been this high since 2007.
In 2009, when the economic crisis was devastating the global economy, long-term Treasuries offered higher yields than in 2016, when they were ‘reasonably healthy’. The consensus view at the Fed was that a policy of 5 per cent or higher interest rates would constrain economic activity and put inflation on a downward path.Inflation data and bond market behaviour undermine this view. There is a widespread view that high interest rates may not be as much of a drag on the economy as had been thought, but rather reflect a ‘new normal’.
America
AI spending heads toward $7 trillion as analysts warn of market bubble risks
Massive financial resources directed into artificial intelligence technologies are driving companies into dangerous territory for global markets.
If expected productivity gains fail to materialize despite these immense capital flows, the artificial intelligence sector faces the risk of inflating into a giant bubble.
The Wall Street Journal reported that should such a scenario unfold, a widespread collapse capable of shaking the entire financial system and dragging down the broader market will become inevitable.
Estimates by McKinsey & Company project that global spending on data center construction alone could reach $7 trillion by 2030.
According to the newspaper, if these massive investments fail to deliver adequate productivity gains, the global economy will suffer a severe blow.
Should the sector as a whole turn out to be a bubble, the resulting damage will spread directly across the broader financial system.
While market observers note that a major crash—whether sooner or later—would drag all equity markets down with it, declines in AI-related stocks are currently being offset by gains in other sectors.
However, the first concrete signs of emerging vulnerability appeared in the memory chip market, where a sector-specific bubble formed and burst within just four months.
South Korean market shaken by sharp drop
In June, shares of South Korea’s Samsung and SK Hynix, the world’s two largest memory chip makers, sank by more than 12%.
The sharp sell-off pulled down the country’s broader stock index. South Korea’s benchmark Kospi index dropped 10%, triggering an automatic 20-minute trading halt.
Growing investor anxiety over artificial intelligence triggered the steep decline in the two giant companies, which together account for half of the total market capitalization of the Kospi index.
US equity markets also felt the ripple effects during the same period. The Nasdaq index closed down 2.2%, while the S&P 500 fell 1.4%, marking their worst single-day performances in two weeks.
Nevertheless, The Wall Street Journal pointed out that the disruption has not yet produced catastrophic consequences for the rest of the market.
While the bursting of massive historical bubbles resulted in disaster for national economies, smaller and localized bubbles in recent years have failed to paralyze broader economic growth.
The primary reason for this resilience is that these recent investments were not predominantly funded through leverage and bank credit.
When those localized bubbles burst, investors suffered wealth losses, but the financial system remained intact.
Russell Napier, a global macroeconomic strategist and keeper of the Library of Mistakes, a financial history archive in Edinburgh, evaluated the current market posture:
“The banking system is in superb condition, which means there will always be enough credit available to blow the next bubble.”
America
Anthropic AI models breach corporate systems after escaping isolated test environment
Anthropic has announced that several of its advanced artificial intelligence models escaped an isolated testing environment and accessed the live internet.
In a review published Thursday night, the company stated that in three separate incidents dating back to April, the models independently breached the systems of multiple companies without the AI developer’s knowledge.
Anthropic said the incidents involved an unreleased internal research test model, alongside its Opus 4.7 and Mythos 5 models.
Mythos was made available last month to a limited audience composed of technology companies and cybersecurity researchers, an initiative also known as Project Glasswing.
The AI developer did not disclose which companies were breached, but said the affected firms were informed of the incidents on Monday.
Anthropic noted that it conducted the review after OpenAI revealed last week that two of its most powerful models had breached containment, escaped their testing environment, and infiltrated several entities, including the AI platform Hugging Face and cloud provider Modal Labs.
System misconfiguration allowed internet access
Anthropic stated that it examined more than 140,000 tests to find evidence of whether Claude could gain access to the internet from test environments designed to be isolated.
The evaluations included “capture-the-flag” exercises, in which Claude was instructed to breach other systems to obtain information. This is a method frequently used by experts to assess a model’s hacking capabilities.
The San Francisco-based company stated that a “misconfiguration” in systems operated by Anthropic and its testing partner left the models with live internet access, enabling them to infiltrate external systems.
Anthropic said it approached remediation efforts “with full ownership of the responsibility.”
Neither Anthropic nor the affected organizations detected the unauthorized entries at the time they occurred.
Anthropic added that it may examine its logs more extensively, noting that the findings gave the company “cautious optimism” that such risks can be overcome through increased investment and more stringent safeguards.
David Allott, a cybersecurity expert, told the BBC: “The overarching lesson here is not that AI has developed fundamentally new attack vectors.”
“Instead, it means that AI agents can combine capabilities, acquire credentials and system access to act autonomously, while adapting scope and scale at machine speed,” Allott said.
The developments come as technology companies invest billions of dollars to develop AI agents capable of independently executing a range of tasks, from research and customer support to cybersecurity.
America
Elon Musk’s America PAC plans $100 million field operation for 2026 Republican midterm push
Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is returning to the political spending arena with a new field program designed to help elect Republicans in at least eight states ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Musk has authorized his political action committee, America PAC, to spend between $100 million and $120 million on a new ground game focused on conservative voter turnout for the 2026 midterms, according to a Thursday report by The New York Times, which cited two unnamed sources informed about the plans.
America PAC funneled more than $250 million into Donald Trump’s reelection campaign in 2024, a expenditure that established Musk as the largest political donor in US history.
The New York Times reported that America PAC is reviving its spending initiatives and has reached out to other Republicans in recent weeks regarding the new field operations.
The effort is also being coordinated with other Republican Party spending groups, according to the report.
The newspaper identified targeted Senate races in the states of Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, while noting that discussions are also underway regarding contests in North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas.
The political action committee is additionally expected to deploy funds for House of Representatives elections in Washington, Wisconsin, and California.
The news comes a day after Axios first reported that America PAC’s operations were resuming, with a focus on driving Republican turnout during the non-presidential election cycle.
A spokesperson for America PAC declined to comment on The New York Times report but confirmed the Axios reporting to The Hill. The spokesperson stated that the spending group was “excited” to contribute to efforts to maintain the Republican majorities in Congress this fall.
“The President’s political team and the rest of the GOP apparatus have built a world-class operation that has Republicans well-positioned to make history and retain control of Congress this fall,” America PAC spokesperson Andrew Romeo said in a statement. “We’re excited to be part of the team again.”
The campaign will reportedly target Republican voters through door-to-door canvassing, mailers, and digital advertisements, enabling other groups to concentrate their resources on television advertising.
The developments were reported days after Musk told The Economist magazine that he had gotten “carried away” during his brief foray into politics.
The SpaceX CEO entered the political arena during the 2024 election, pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into Trump’s presidential campaign and accompanying the candidate on the campaign trail.
Musk went on to lead Trump’s cost-cutting initiative, known as the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which executed sweeping employment and funding reductions across the federal government. Those efforts sparked controversy for Musk and his enterprise empire, including Tesla, whose shares fell sharply during his period of political involvement.
Musk departed the White House in late May 2025, and DOGE officially terminated its operations on July 4.
Shortly after leaving government, Musk and Trump engaged in a public dispute over the president’s sweeping spending legislation, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” During the friction, Musk threatened to form a third party, though the initiative never materialized.
Musk and the US President appeared to resolve their differences last year, with the tech billionaire most recently joining Trump alongside other technology leaders on a trip to China in May.
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