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How will the change of leadership in Vietnam affect foreign policy?

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Observers say that despite the uncertainty in Hanoi following the death of long-serving leader Nguyen Phu Trong, China’s relations with Vietnam will remain largely stable.

Mr Trong, 80, who died last week after a long illness, was a prominent figure in Vietnam’s rapid economic growth and fight against corruption. He also spearheaded Vietnam’s ‘bamboo diplomacy’, which struck a delicate balance in the US-China rivalry.

In a rare visit to the Vietnamese embassy in Beijing last Saturday, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke of their ‘deep friendship’ and praised Trong’s ‘outstanding contribution’ to relations between the two countries and their ruling parties.

The Chinese Communist Party also issued a condolence message hours after Trong’s death was announced, describing him as ‘a good comrade, a good brother and a good friend’. China’s No 4 official, Wang Huning, is leading a delegation to Vietnam to attend Nguyen’s state funeral on Friday (today).

Hanoi stressed the importance of its relations with Beijing, pledging to Chinese Ambassador Pham Sao Mai to ‘stick to the strategic choice and priority of developing friendly cooperation with China’, according to the official Xinhua news agency.

Zhang Mingliang, an expert on Southeast Asian affairs at Jinan University in Guangzhou, said Xi’s embassy visit showed that Beijing was relatively satisfied with the development of bilateral relations during the Trong era.

“Compared to relations during the oil rig crisis in 2014 and [former US President Donald] Trump’s state visit to Vietnam in 2017, Sino-Vietnamese relations have improved significantly since Hanoi adopted the concept of ‘community of shared destiny’ at Beijing’s request last year,” Zhang told the South China Morning Post.

“Compared to the high tensions with the Philippines in the South China Sea, Vietnam and China have managed to get along well without exaggerating their deep differences on regional issues,” he added.

Relations between the communist neighbours have been turbulent in recent decades, with clashes over the disputed Paracel Islands in the 1970s and a brief but bloody border war in 1979.

Zhang noted that relations also hit a low point during the 2014 diplomatic row over China’s placement of a deepwater oil rig near the Paracels, which was seen as a turning point in Hanoi’s relations with Washington.

“Under Trong’s rule, Vietnam has managed to establish at least a superficially friendly relationship with China. But at the same time, Vietnam’s relations with the US and Russia have reached unprecedented levels,” Zhang said.

“The purpose of all this is to keep China in check and ensure that Vietnam enjoys a favourable international environment and relatively stable relations with China, which are largely under Hanoi’s control. This may seem like an impossible task, but Trong’s Vietnam has managed to hedge its bets with the big powers,” he added.

Relations with China

Vietnam’s most influential leader since founding revolutionary leader Ho Chi Minh, Trong became general secretary of the ruling party in 2011 and secured a precedent-setting third five-year term in 2021. Trong also served as Vietnam’s president from 2018 to 2020.

Amid speculation that his health was deteriorating, Trong visited Beijing in October 2022, his first overseas trip since suffering a stroke in 2019, and the first foreign leader to meet Xi after securing a third term.

In the past 10 months, despite his illness, Trong has hosted both Xi and US President Joe Biden in Hanoi, and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in June. Hanoi has also elevated Japan, India, South Korea and Australia to its highest level of comprehensive strategic partners.

Carl Thayer, professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales in Australia, told the South China Morning Post that Trong will be remembered for his 2015 trips to the US and Japan, which laid the groundwork for closer ties with the West.

“Hanoi’s relations with Beijing will remain ‘stable and friendly’ because Vietnam will not abandon its foreign policy of ‘peace, cooperation and development’,” Thayer said.

“China plays a special role in Vietnam’s foreign relations. It is Vietnam’s first comprehensive strategic partner and the only major power to be called a comprehensive strategic cooperation partner,” he said.

Analysts also pointed to Trong’s personal bond with Xi and the ties between the two communist parties, which over the years have acted as a counterweight in the turbulent relationship between Hanoi and Beijing.

As Vietnam has expanded its diplomacy and improved its relations with the United States, I think Trong has been able to convince Beijing that Vietnam is truly neutral and independent and that improving relations with Washington would not be to Beijing’s detriment,” said Southeast Asia expert Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington.

“This was possible because of Trong’s resolute communist ideology. He saw the world the way Xi Jinping does,” he added.

Abuza also noted that China has inter-party channels with Vietnam to ensure a constant flow of communication between senior officials, something the United States does not have.

Nguyen Khac Giang, an analyst at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said Trong and Xi had a close relationship because of their shared commitment to Marxism-Leninism.

“This helped stabilise bilateral relations, especially during periods of tension over maritime disputes in the South China Sea, Trong also had a very positive view of China and admired the Chinese Communist Party, but took a pragmatic approach with them on many sensitive issues,” the analyst told the South China Morning Post.

Although Trong’s potential successors, such as President To Lam, may not have the same bond with Xi, “I don’t think this will greatly affect Hanoi’s ability to maintain good relations with China because the inter-party bond remains strong,” Giang said.

He said the bamboo diplomacy approach ‘is working well’ and Trong’s successor is unlikely to change it or its core policies ‘to prove his legitimacy as the rightful heir’, at least in the medium term.

‘No drastic changes in foreign policy’

A day before his death, Trong’s duties were temporarily transferred to Lam. Lam, 66, who became head of state in May, was previously Vietnam’s minister of public security and oversaw the anti-corruption campaign. The so-called ‘furnace of fire’ campaign has led to the dismissal of 40 members of the party’s central committee and dozens of army and police generals since 2016.

The removal of six of the 18 members of the Politburo since December 2022, including three of Vietnam’s top five leaders since March, has raised concerns about uncertainty.

Despite the political turmoil, Abuza said he expects ‘absolutely no change’ in Vietnam’s foreign policy, saying Hanoi will remain ‘scrupulously neutral’ and has deep economic ties with both China and the US and its allies.

ASIA

Philippines withdraws vessel from disputed South China Sea shoal

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The Philippines has withdrawn a coastguard vessel from Sabina Shoal in the contested South China Sea, prompting discussions on China’s next steps in the region. The BRP Teresa Magbanua was recalled over the weekend following a five-month deployment, citing deteriorating weather conditions, depleted supplies, and the need to evacuate medical personnel. China refers to the shoal as Xianbin Reef.

The vessel returned to Puerto Princesa in Palawan on Sunday, where it received a warm welcome. However, four of the 63 crew members required medical treatment for dehydration.

Analysts suggest the sudden withdrawal may facilitate the rotation and resupply of troops stationed aboard the BRP Sierra Madre, a grounded World War II-era U.S. warship that the Philippines uses as a military outpost at Second Thomas Shoal, another contested area in the South China Sea.

China’s Global Times characterized the withdrawal as a result of “China’s successful intervention,” claiming that the Philippines had no choice but to pull back. The withdrawal reportedly occurred just three days after a meeting of the China-Philippines Bilateral Consultative Mechanism on the South China Sea. However, the Philippines did not notify China in advance of its decision to withdraw the vessel.

Carl Thayer, professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales, expressed concerns that the Philippines should have deployed a replacement ship before recalling the Teresa Magbanua. “The initiative is now in China’s hands,” Thayer told This Week in Asia. He warned that China might justify actions to prevent the Philippines from replacing the vessel under the guise of self-defense.

Thayer added that China could use the incident to support its territorial claims in the region, pointing out that approximately 70 Chinese military, coastguard, and militia vessels are stationed near the disputed shoal. He suggested that China would likely oppose any future attempts by the Philippines to deploy replacement vessels.

According to Thayer, China’s objective is not to occupy Sabina Shoal but to prevent the Philippines from establishing a permanent presence in the area. The Teresa Magbanua had been stationed at Sabina Shoal, located 146 kilometers (90 miles) from Palawan and about 1,200 kilometers from China’s nearest significant landmass, further escalating tensions between Beijing and Manila.

Lucas Bersamin, chairman of the Philippines’ National Maritime Council, explained on Sunday that withdrawing the vessel would allow for necessary repairs and provide the crew with much-needed rest.

“We have lost nothing. We have not abandoned anything,” Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela reassured during a press conference on Monday.

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ASIA

Daesh targets religious minorities in Afghanistan; 14 Hazaras just killed

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The Islamic State (IS), also known as the Daesh terrorist group, has repeatedly attacked Hazaras and other religious minorities across Afghanistan. The Daesh terrorists targeted them in their schools, shrines, workplaces, clinics, hospitals, universities, courses, and even during prayers inside their mosques. This targets are going on since many years and both the governments ( the republic system) and the current Taliban Emirate have done little to protect these communities from suicide attacks, unarmed attacks or provide them with necessary security measurements.

In the latest deadly attack, Daesh claimed responsibility for an attack on Shia Hazaras that claimed the lives of 14 Shias. The incident took place on Thursday in the Karyudal area, which lies between Daykunid and Ghor, the two provinces mainly populated with Shia people. Another four Shias received injuries.

Local sources said that the victims were traveling along the route between the two provinces to welcome the relatives returning from a visit to the Karbala, when they were brutally gunned down by the Daesh armed men. Hazaras considered Karbala as a holy city in Iraq where millions of Shia Muslims had converged for the Shiite pilgrimage of Arbaeen, marking the 4th day of mourning for the martyrdom of Imam Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH).

A local source told Harici that the armed men halted the bus carrying the residents under the pretense of taking photographs and suddenly opened fire on them.

Attack on Hazaras draws widespread condemnations

The Afghan citizens and the politicians have strongly condemned the attack on Hazara civilians and denounced the attack as “terrorist act.” Abdullah Abdullah, former head of Afghanistan’s High Council for National Reconciliation, expressed his deepest regret for the brutal killing of 14 innocent residents of Daikundi.

“We strongly condemn the merciless killing of our innocent countrymen,” he added.

Former president of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzia termed the brutal killing and shooting of civilians in Daikundi as a terrorist act and a crime against humanity and against Islam. He extended his deepest condolences to the families of the victims and condemned “this crime in the strongest terms.”

Former head of National Directorate of Security, Rahmatullah Nabil also condemned the killing of Hazara people and called it the most heartbreaking form of violence.

“This is the most heartbreaking kind of violence that takes the lives of innocent people just for the crime of trying to live a peaceful and civil life. These disasters are not only a wound on the bodies of our Hazaras, but also on the souls of all Afghan people,” he said in a post in X. 

He furthered, “today, more than ever, we need to join hands and create a new narrative for this country; a narrative in which all ethnic groups, regardless of religion and ethnicity, have equal rights and security. Otherwise, this vicious cycle of extremism and the killing of innocent people in the name of religion will continue and several generations will become victims of this violence.”

Vicious cycle of extremism and the killing of innocent people in the name of religion

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said that Iran strongly condemned the criminal attack by Daesh terrorists on those welcoming the pilgrims of Karbala in Ghor province. Kanani called for immediate action to punish the perpetrators of this crime and reiterated support to the government of Afghanistan on its anti-terrorist measures.

The UN special rapporteur for Afghanistan, Richard Bennett also condemned the attack on the Hazara people, stating that the “appalling SKIP-claimed killings of Hazara from Daikundi traveling in Ghor bears the hallmarks of international crimes.”

He furthered: “I am alarmed about the spate of SKIP-claimed attacks. Need for prevention, protection and international accountability in Afghanistan.”

A Taliban spokesman confirmed the incident and said that 14 people were killed and six others wounded in the brutal attack carried out by the enemies of humanity. “We strongly condemn this brutal act, and consider it our duty to protect the nation’s property and lives. While we share our condolences with the victims of this incident, we are also making serious efforts to find the perpetrators and bring them to justice,” the spokesman added.

Meanwhile, a resident of Sang-e-Takht district of Daikundi said that 14 people were killed just a few days after the Taliban governor promised to provide security in the province. He said that the Taliban governor had recently visited the district and promised that he would ensure the security of the roads between Ghor and Bandar. However, on Thursday 14 people were killed on the road between the same village.

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Scrambling for power: Differences between the Haqqani Network and the Taliban

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For the past 20 years, the Haqqani Network has been fighting alongside the Taliban for a common goal and has carried out the bloodiest attacks across the country. However, in these 20 years, the responsibility of all the attacks of this network was taken by the Taliban, and they tried not to recognize this network as a group separate from the Taliban.

Although the name of the Haqqani network was mentioned a lot in the media, the Taliban spokesman always had said that all are members of the Taliban and that there are no separate structures of the Haqqani’s and the Taliban.

During over 20 years, the Taliban managed to introduce the Haqqani network as a part of itself, and the responsibility of all the attacks of Haqqani’s were assumed by the Taliban spokesperson.

Even after the collapse of the republic system, following the withdrawal of US troops and the return of the Taliban into power, Taliban officials and leaders of the Haqqani network tried hard to hide the identity of their network and consider themselves part of the “Islamic Emirate” of the Taliban.

But with the passage of time and for various reasons, the Haqqani network has returned to its origin and tends to reveal its hidden identity. This network has recently released a series of videos of its fighters who have carried out suicide attacks in the past 20 years, targeting the then Afghan security forces and the foreign troops across Afghanistan.

Haqqani network is willing to reveal its hidden identity

In the latest video published by the Haqqani network, had showed Sirajuddin Haqqani, the leader of the Haqqani network and the current Interior Minister along with his brother Badruddin Haqqani where both saying goodbye to a young suicide bomber and explaining the attack plan to him.

Badruddin was the youngest brother of Sirajuddin, whom the Taliban’s official website identified as the initiator of the suicide attacks, and according to the Taliban, he had designed and implemented 75 suicide attacks, including the attack on the Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul. His name was in the US blacklist and eventually he was killed in an American drone attack in 2012.

Though, apparently the Haqqani network is now part of the Taliban government, but in addition to the military structures, its propaganda section is also separate. Last Thursday, Haqqani network commemorated the death anniversary of Maulvi Sangin, the former military officer of this network in Paktika province. This was despite the fact that senior Taliban officials did not even write anything about him on social platforms and did not even make a small reference to him. But members of the Haqqani network commemorated this day by releasing a documentary film on the life of Sangin and called him a national hero.

Taliban didn’t broadcast Haqqani commander documentary film in national tv

The spokesperson of the Kabul Police Command, who is a member of the Haqqani network and a member of Molavi Sangin’s family, called him his role model. However, this documentary film was not broadcasted on the national television under the control of the Taliban, but in Shamshad, a private tv channel and on big screens in the provinces of Kabul, Khost, Nangarhar and some other provinces.

Sangin, originally from Zirok district of Khost province and from the Zadran tribe. He was born in North Waziristan and had close relations with the Pakistani Taliban.

He had a history of war not only in Afghanistan, but also in Waziristan, and he was involved in armed battles with different people. His name was on the US blacklist, he was killed by an American drone on September 9, 2013 in North Waziristan of Pakistan.

He was one of the important commanders of the Haqqani network. US soldier Beau Bergdahl, who was later exchanged with five current senior Taliban officials, was captured by the fighters under Sangin’s command, which the Haqqani network considers his greatest heroism. The Haqqani network held Bergdahl from 2009 to 2014. The Haqqani network called Sangin a heroic fighter in the documentary it made about him.

But the noteworthy point is that in this documentary he is not introduced as a member of the Taliban, but is called a member of the Haqqani network or the Haqqani group.

This is despite the fact that during the last 20 years, the Haqqani network did not consider itself as a separate armed structure from the Taliban. Meanwhile, in this documentary, an audio file of Rahimullah Yousafzai, a former BBC reporter, is played, calling him one of the important commanders of the Haqqani network.

Internal dispute between the Taliban and Haqqani network is getting serious

In parts of the documentary, videos of his battles are played. In one of these videos, he is seen next to Baitullah Mehsud, the former leader of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In this documentary, all the talks about him were done by members of the Haqqani network, many of whom now hold various positions in the Taliban’s Ministry of Interior in Kabul.

In this documentary, no one except members of the Haqqani network talked about Sangin. At the end of the documentary, he is mentioned as a member of the Haqqani network, not a member of the Taliban.

The point is that after three years since the return of the Taliban into power, and internal disputes among the Taliban and Haqqani over government positions, now the Haqqani’s are apparently trying to reveal their true identity in the Taliban government.

The frequent release of videos of suicide fighters by the Haqqani network may be a message to the Taliban that the heavy burden of the war is on the shoulders of this group and the regime should have a bigger share of it. Previously, the leader of the Haqqani network criticized the monopoly of power and considered this practice as the detriment of the Taliban government.

After 20 years of the Haqqani network defending its identity and the Taliban’s indifference to the killed commanders of this group, even to the extent that the national television controlled by the Taliban did not allow the broadcast of a documentary of one of the commanders of this network, it shows that the hidden battle between the Haqqani network and the Taliban is unfolding and expanding.

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