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Türkiye’s BRICS bid discussed at Shanghai University

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On 24 September, the Institute of Global Studies of Shanghai University organised a workshop on ‘Türkiye’s Re-Asia Initiative’.

Moderated by Prof. Guo Changgang, Director of the Centre for Turkish Studies at Shanghai University, the workshop discussed China and Türkiye’s foreign policies, the rising global South, the BRICS agenda and Türkiye’s membership bid.

Opening the event, Prof. Guo Changgang said: “As Ankara is applying to join BRICS, it is a good time to talk about Türkiye’s Asia policy,” highlighting the Re-Asia Initiative.

“Türkiye’s efforts to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and participate in ASEAN show that Türkiye has adopted a ‘pendulum’ position between the West and the East,” said Prof. Dr. Gürol Baba of Ankara Social Sciences University. Gürol Baba said Türkiye’s move to join BRICS will make it a more ‘visible’ actor in the region: “Türkiye is an active middle power. It should cooperate with like-minded powers. For example, Türkiye is a founding member of the MIKTA group. BRICS is also a place where Türkiye can find like-minded countries. Baba said Türkiye wanted to keep East and West together in its foreign policy.

Prof Zou Zhigiang of Fudan University said: ‘Türkiye is changing its Asia policy. This is because an Asia that is economically and technologically confident, competitive and rising in every sense cannot be ignored. Türkiye is currently seeking to increase its engagement in the region. President Erdoğan attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in 2022 for the first time as a NATO country. It has also been confirmed that Türkiye has applied to join BRICS,” he said. Prof Zou summed up why Türkiye attaches such importance to Asia in 4 points:

  1. Accumulated frustration with the West and the European Union. It is now clear that Türkiye’s EU membership will not happen in the near future.

  2. Türkiye is seeking strategic autonomy. It wants to be a central power in the world and pursue a balanced policy. It wants to be a centre between East and West and not give up its NATO membership.

  3. The growing global influence and attractiveness of the SCO and BRICS.

  4. Türkiye’s domestic economy faces challenges. New economic markets and capital inflows are vital for Türkiye.

Prof Zhou Shixin of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies commented on China’s Asia policy:

“China is seen by the US as the biggest threat, so it is blocked and ostracised by the US and some of its allies. China-US relations are one of the most important factors driving the regional power shift and order transition in the Asia-Pacific. China is expanding its presence and increasing its influence in the Asia-Pacific. China is acting as a modern and sovereign country, making great efforts to defend its territorial integrity and sovereign independence and to achieve national reunification. China also seeks peaceful and equal coexistence and interaction with the US, but does not seek to coerce the US. China seeks to strengthen security and economic relations with more regional countries on the basis of the principles of ‘friendship, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness’. China seeks to manage and resolve territorial disputes with its neighbours primarily through bilateral diplomatic consultations and negotiations”.

Commenting on Türkiye’s Asia Re-entry Initiative, Prof. Zhou said that Ankara has demonstrated its willingness to pursue a multi-dimensional foreign policy based on the Strategic Depth Doctrine and made the following suggestions: “Türkiye can focus more on Southeast Asia rather than South Asia and Northeast Asia, Türkiye can interact with Asia-Pacific countries as a sovereign country, not as a NATO member, even with Japan and South Korea. Türkiye could promote more economic cooperation rather than security cooperation, Türkiye could apply to join the ASEAN Regional Forum as an Asian country, and Türkiye could negotiate more free trade agreements with Asia-Pacific countries beyond South Korea (1 May 2013), Malaysia (1 August 2015) and Singapore (1 October 2017) before joining the EU. As a result, China is willing to help Türkiye further coordinate with some regional countries.”

Prof Zhou Yiqi of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies spoke about China’s Middle East policy:

“There are four major parties in the Middle East: Arab countries, Israel, Iran and Türkiye. China has strengthened its relations with most of the major powers there. However, Türkiye remains the only party that has not yet signed a partnership agreement with China. Diplomatic relations between the two: Strategic Cooperation Relations. Although relations between China and Israel are rather poor, there is still a relationship of innovative partnership. In addition, China has successfully negotiated the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia. China’s partnership between these two countries has become a bridge that brings them together.

The traditional stereotype is that China is only interested in economic issues and is a free rider on security in the region. However, after its mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its efforts to bring peace to Gaza, China has become an active player in Middle East security issues. However, this still differs from US efforts to use the alliance as a bargaining chip. China has always been quite fair in the Middle East, which has earned it trust. But it is also on the side of justice, for example on the Palestinian issue.”

Commenting on Türkiye’s Re-Asia Initiative, Prof. Zhou Yiqi said: “I think it is important for Türkiye to improve its relations with China, because China-Türkiye relations are even weaker than China-Israel relations. China is looking for stability in the face of apparent uncertainty. But I don’t understand why the foreign minister went back to Türkiye and suddenly raised taxes on electric cars imported from China. Such issues have become a hot topic on Chinese social media and this is definitely not positive for people-to-people understanding,” he said.

Dr Selçuk Aydın of Boğaziçi University commented on Türkiye’s relations with Asia:

“The origins of modern Türkiye go back to the early 19th century. The biggest event of that period was the abolition of the Janissaries. In other words, while the Ottoman Empire was undergoing a transformation, this process was expressed with a ‘new’ term. If we look back to the 1920s, there were again discussions about ‘New Türkiye’. When Erdoğan came to power, all the news was about ‘New Türkiye’. In fact, Asia is nothing new for Türkiye; it already has historical, cultural and religious links. I think Dr Serdar has been working on Uighur and Xinjiang issues. Historically, this region has been very connected and interacted with Türkiye.

Secondly, Türkiye’s participation in the Belt and Road Initiative is a great initiative. There is a mystery in Türkiye about China and in China about Türkiye. How is Türkiye perceived? For China, the concept of Türkiye is probably limited to NATO. Then there is the Xinjiang issue. There are two important issues that hinder Türkiye’s cooperation with China.

The first step we need to discuss is Türkiye’s dissatisfaction with what the US is forcing it to do in the Middle East. Especially the Syria incident. That was a turning point in diplomacy. Another example is the FETO case. Gulen had a close relationship with the US and there was a coup attempt. After this incident, Türkiye’s diplomatic direction changed. After the Arab Spring, Türkiye realised that the US did not support liberal movements in the Middle East, but only focused on its own interests. Subsequently, Türkiye became more involved in Middle Eastern affairs, for example by mobilising its military abroad in Syria, Azerbaijan and elsewhere.

We need to analyse Türkiye’s foreign policy from these perspectives. First, history, which is also intertwined with religion. The Ottoman Empire was the centre of the Caliphate. The second is the racial dimension, which also bears traces of the late Ottoman Empire. Turkish consulates are therefore the main pillar of Turkish foreign policy. The third pillar of Turkish policy is the promotion of a non-Western approach. This is related to the foundations of modern Türkiye and is very anti-colonialist. At the same time, Türkiye is geographically close to Western countries and has historically cooperated with them.

Türkiye’s neighbours are often in civil war or conflict. So Türkiye has to look to Asia, because China has incredible lessons to teach in that region. China may be the only superpower that wants peace in the Middle East.”

Commenting on Türkiye-China relations, Dr Serdar Yurtçiçek said:

“Professor Yiqi mentioned that there are four important powers in the Middle East (Türkiye, Arabia, Iran and Israel) and although China has very good relations with three of them, it has not been able to improve its relations with Türkiye. The reason for this is the Uighur issue, as Selçuk mentioned earlier. Since 2016, I have been living in China and researching Türkiye’s China policy. During this time, I have met many Chinese academics and politicians. The conclusion I have drawn from my experience and research is that the most important issue between Türkiye and China is the Uyghur issue, and unless this issue is resolved, all other areas of cooperation cannot be built in a relationship of mutual trust. Last year, former ambassador Emin Önen said: ‘There is mutual understanding on 99 points in Türkiye-China relations, but let’s not agree on one point. This should not hinder the development of bilateral relations’. Prof. Yang Chen said that China wants to improve its relations with Türkiye, but this point is as important as the other 99 points and the two countries should keep their mutual promises. That point is the Uighur issue. And it is clear that Turkish academics and politicians do not understand how important the Xinjiang issue is for China and that it is a non-negotiable issue in terms of national sovereignty.

After the Second World War, Turkish-Chinese relations developed largely within the foreign policy boundaries drawn by the United States. In particular, the fight against China in the Korean Civil War and Türkiye’s eventual accession to NATO led to Uighur figures such as Isa Yusuf Alptekin and Mehmet Emin Buğra defecting to Türkiye, making Türkiye a centre for anti-China Uighur separatist organisations. Even diplomatic relations between Türkiye and China only started after the US established diplomatic relations with China.

The situation was no different before the Second World War. Türkiye prioritised its friendship with the Soviets in its foreign policy and was wary of taking any steps that might anger the Soviets. For example, in 1944, Türkiye and the Republic of China almost signed a treaty of friendship, but Türkiye cancelled the treaty at the last minute so as not to anger the Soviets. This was because Türkiye had serious problems with the Soviets, especially the issue of the Straits Convention. The situation was similar in China. Xinjiang was largely under Soviet control. According to a Turkish diplomat, if a Chinese official wanted to go to Xinjiang, he first had to get permission from the Soviet consul in Kashgar.

Today, for the first time, there is a possibility of strategic relations between China and Türkiye without the shadow of a third country. Türkiye’s application for BRICS membership should be seen in this context.”

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South Korea plans $120B spend on eight US nuclear power plants

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South Korea will spend $120 billion to construct eight nuclear power plants in the US under an agreement that provides for $350 billion in investments in exchange for lower tariffs.

The South Korean government also announced that Seoul and Washington will begin examining a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Alaska comprising a large-scale pipeline to transport natural gas from the north of the state to the south, alongside the construction of an LNG terminal for exports overseas.

Seoul stated that a decision regarding the LNG project will be made following a commercial feasibility study. However, US President Donald Trump said that South Korea would invest $54 billion in the project, pointing to an apparent lack of full coordination between the two sides on the matter.

Trade and Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said in a statement: “This announcement opens a new horizon of cooperation where the two countries join forces to develop joint commercial ventures in strategic areas directly linked to economic security and future sectors such as artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and LNG.”

“We will adhere to the principle of prioritising national interests and investing solely in commercially viable projects,” Kim said.

Speaking at the White House, Trump characterised South Korea’s plans as “one of the largest energy infrastructure investments in American history”.

The announcement followed a meeting between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung roughly one year ago at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting held in South Korea, where they agreed on the creation of a $350 billion investment fund.

Under that agreement, $150 billion was allocated to the shipbuilding sector and $200 billion to other sectors. In return, the US announced it would reduce tariffs imposed on goods imported from South Korea from 25% to 15%.

Under the nuclear power project, South Korea’s state-controlled utility will build two plants in the US, while Pennsylvania-based Westinghouse Electric will construct six plants.

According to the South Korean government, this will mark the first instance in which a foreign country builds its own nuclear power plants in the US.

South Korean firms are also evaluating the possibility of acquiring a stake in Westinghouse as part of negotiations over sharing profits generated by the project.

South Korea additionally announced that it will build a $22.3 billion natural gas-fired power plant in Texas with a capacity of 6,472 megawatts.

The facility will be designed to supply electricity directly to nearby data centres. The project’s first phase is targeted to begin commercial operations in 2029, with full-capacity operations slated for 2032.

Seoul also disclosed that it had agreed to allow the US to receive 50% of the profits generated by the projects until South Korea recoups all of its investments.

After South Korea fully recovers its total investment amount, 90% of the profits will go to the US.

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DeepSeek engineer warns AI will lead to communism or Cyberpunk

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Shengyu Liu, a low-level hardware architecture and processor kernel optimisation specialist at China-based artificial intelligence organisation DeepSeek, has published an assessment addressing the existential crisis facing software developers and humanity amid the pace of AI advancement.

A senior engineer who personally coded the core attention mechanism kernels for the DeepSeek v4.1 model, Liu stated that the technology he developed with his own hands will very soon render his professional expertise redundant and has initiated the phasing out of human labour.

Arguing that AI will steer future societies either towards a communism in which productive forces are entirely emancipated or towards a dark Cyberpunk dystopia where resources are concentrated within mega tech monopolies, Liu highlighted the vital importance of the open-source software struggle for humanity.

Noting that the DeepSeek v4.1 model released a few days ago raised the capability ceiling for small-scale systems, Liu stressed that transformation across the sector is advancing at an inconceivable pace.

Recalling that the transition from initial chatbots with context lengths of only a few thousand semantic tokens to reasoning-capable contemporary models took just two years, the senior engineer observed that the emergence of autonomous agents executing complex instructions within test and execution environments spanned a period of merely one and a half years.

Stating that AI will attain the capacity for self-improvement and full integration into physically embodied systems within the next few years, Liu described the transformation this development has generated in his own field:

“AI is taking incredible strides in processor kernel design and authoring, the field for which I am responsible. Within the span of merely a year, it transformed from a modest assistant that merely scanned technical documentation, read code, and identified bugs into a master that independently reads GPU machine-language instructions and hardware-level instruction sequences directly. Using professional profiling tools, it inspects instruction latency stalls and optimises processor kernels autonomously. In the not-so-distant future, it will also acquire the ability to independently design instruction scheduling, weigh the performance of different plans, implement them, and bring them to perfection.”

Expressing pride in the success achieved by the DeepSeek v4.1 model as a concrete fruit of his own labour, Liu noted that he personally coded the system’s most critical attention mechanism components, stating that the model’s success serves as an endorsement of his craft, yet the superhuman nature of technological progress remains unstoppable.

“I want to lead my own revolution”

Liu considers it a certainty that within six months to a year, AI will generate processor kernels far superior to his own.

Pointing to the rapidly widening chasm between the human mind and machine capacity, the senior engineer said: “AI can think at 300 semantic tokens per second, write a line of code in half a second, and complete an entire block of code in 20 seconds. I cannot do this. AI can continually increase model depth, thinking intensity, external tool invocation frequency, and processing parallelism; I cannot achieve this.”

Emphasising that software engineers have been drawn into a race knowingly preparing their own demise, Liu explained why he works day and night on optimisation efforts that accelerate his own obsolescence:

“Throughout history, humanity has never hesitated when it comes to self-destruction. Knowing that the more flawless the kernels I write, the faster our new model’s training and inference speeds will be, the more its capabilities will multiply, and the earlier I will be sidelined, why do I continue to optimise with all my strength? On one level, this work is like a game to me; it brings me indescribable pleasure. When I discover a new method or see the performance curve of my code rise, the thrill I feel is no different from that of a record-breaking speed enthusiast. Moreover, I feel immense pride when I outperform the official code of hardware vendors.”

Pointing to the ruthless competition on the other side of the coin, Liu stated: “Yet the primary reason is this: even if I quit today or deliberately slowed the progress of our models, other companies would continue their work and eventually eliminate me anyway. Naturally, no one wishes to see their own profession overturned; however, if this revolution is inevitable, I want the force that unseats me to originate from my own hands. In a landscape where everyone is so focused on self-destruction, I, too, am forced to join this relentless arms race.”

“The din of machines crushes the joy of craft”

Preparing for the day when AI surpasses his level of expertise, Liu noted that he will not face unemployment, but will be forced to switch domains.

Stating that his judgement, cognitive capacity, and initiative will allow him to remain at the core table of the industry, the specialist engineer observed that this adaptation entails a heavy emotional toll.

Explaining that shifting fields means abandoning an area to which he is deeply devoted, Liu described his sense of dislocation:

“Switching domains means leaving behind the hardware kernel design, coding, and optimisation work to which I have dedicated years and an ardent passion, only to become a machine operator of AI agents. In the past, my personal curiosity, my area of expertise, and industry demand were in complete harmony. Now, AI has become far more adept than I am in the exact domain of my expertise. Industry demand has shifted away from the human writing high-performance kernel code toward an operator prompting AI to produce such code more rapidly. To bow to this industry demand, I must abandon the field I love and steer toward an unknown path.”

Illustrating the transformation through the metaphor of a traditional craft, Liu continued:

“Consider, for instance, being a master sweater knitter who achieves exquisite patterns and colour harmonies. The quality of the fabric you weave is so superior that wealthy patrons from surrounding villages seek you out, earning you a good living. What is more, sitting by the window sipping tea while looking out at mountains, streams, and animals brings you deep peace as you knit in silence. Then one day, a machine is invented; you feed it only wool and a pattern template, and it knits the sweater identically to your manual craft, only far faster. Realising your competitors will easily overtake you with this tool, you begin using it yourself. Thanks to your 20 years of accumulated experience, you remain faster than your competitors even while operating the machine. Yet the elegance of those hours spent listening to the rain and working stitch by stitch is crushed and extinguished under the mechanical din of the machine. That quiet by the window will be experienced for the final time this summer. I must leave my talent behind in yesterday and become an armoured-machine driver; my hands hold more gears now, but my heart has lost its rhythm.”

“AI in the hands of the unskilled spells disaster”

Looking beyond personal sorrow to societal and pedagogical risks, Liu focused on signs of decay within the education system.

Noting that the new generation of students tends to delegate coursework assignments to AI, the veteran engineer remarked that a student who spends a few cents to have AI produce top-grade code within minutes, rather than sweating for eight hours to obtain an imperfect result, will be stripped of foundational skills.

Emphasising that this shortcut will erode vital engineering abilities such as systems building, code architecture design, abstraction, and anticipating future requirements during development, Liu expressed deep concern:

“Will this foundational engineering mindset fade into history like the skill of writing machine language in past eras, or will it retain permanent value like the capacity to grasp entire computer architectures from software down to hardware? If this comprehension continues to hold value, the situation is dire indeed. Because when an individual with weak engineering fundamentals is equipped with AI, they will produce mountains of garbage code far faster than before. This will plant countless ticking time bombs deep within software systems, driving the world toward a far more precarious, ramshackle structure liable to collapse at any moment.”

Pointing out that raw authority and power will become decisive in the future world rather than technical expertise and intellect, the senior engineer stated that only time can answer these fundamental questions.

“A binary future: Communism or a dark corporate dystopia”

Observing that humanity has arrived at a crossroads with the advancement of AI, Shengyu Liu emphasised that future society will evolve toward one of two radical poles, which he termed communism and Cyberpunk:

“With the momentum of AI, future society will probably be cast toward one of two extremes: communism or Cyberpunk 2077. In the first option, productive forces are completely unshackled, domination over the means of production is broken, and human living standards make an unprecedented leap forward. In the second option, a small tech oligopoly consolidates all resources. While a privileged elite gains access to the most advanced AI and cutting-edge technologies, ascending almost to a state of mechanical divinity, the overwhelming majority of society is left with extremely weak and constrained AIs. Upward social mobility becomes impossible; to reach a higher class, one must possess the most powerful AI, yet access to that AI requires already having been born into that class. An unbreakable cycle of exploitation is thus established.”

Openly criticising the monopolistic and closed models adopted by Western tech companies, Liu posed a pointed question:

“In a scenario where the world’s most advanced AI remains permanently monopolised by a company like Anthropic, do you believe the future will evolve toward communism or a dark Cyberpunk dystopia? Go ahead and guess.”

Stating his conviction that top-tier AI must be delivered openly, transparently, and free of charge to all humanity, the DeepSeek engineer expressed a lack of trust that actors such as Anthropic or OpenAI would uphold this mission.

Likening the possibility of Anthropic alone controlling artificial general intelligence to the catastrophe of nuclear technology falling into the hands of fascist regimes during World War II, Liu concluded with his rationale for remaining at DeepSeek:

“That is precisely why I chose to remain at DeepSeek and why I am holding the line here. We build powerful, lightning-fast AIs offered for the common good of all humanity, and we release them as open source. This is the path to pulling the world back from the brink of that dark corporate dystopia and liberating productive forces for the benefit of the people.”

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Analysts warn new surge in Chinese exports threatens global markets

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Financial Times writer Ryan Avent has written that a fresh, rapid surge in China’s trade surplus could signal a new wave of the “China shock”.

Economists define the “China shock” as a spike in Chinese exports to global markets that intensifies competition for manufacturers in advanced economies and curtails employment in certain sectors.

The term gained widespread currency after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, accelerating the inflow of inexpensive Chinese goods into the US and other nations.

The US was the country hit hardest by the initial shockwave. Between 1999 and 2011, more than 2 million jobs were lost because domestic producers were unable to withstand the competition.

Avent argued that the effects of the initial wave are still felt across the American economy because China failed to carry out the rebalancing that the world expected.

The share of net exports in China’s gross domestic product contracted during the 2007-2019 period, allowing Western nations to focus on national security and other matters.

Avent reported that the trade surplus is now escalating rapidly once again, posing a threat to the economies of wealthy nations.

The writer pointed to the stagnation of domestic demand following the collapse of the real estate market six years ago as one cause of this surplus. Another prominent factor is the Beijing government’s channelling of massive resources into manufacturing in pursuit of self-sufficiency.

Attention was also drawn to the role of the depreciating yuan. An appreciation of the currency could require China to alter its foreign exchange interventions, reduce purchases of foreign currency and assets, and sell those assets off. That scenario could trigger currency depreciation and rising interest rates in other countries.

The Wall Street Journal also reported in the spring of 2024 on economists’ concerns regarding a potential second wave.

Experts predicted that global markets would once again be flooded with inexpensive goods, stating that China was manufacturing far beyond domestic demand to overcome its economic troubles.

Moreover, it was stressed that China is now competing in high-technology fields such as automobiles, computer chips, and complex machinery manufacturing.

Meanwhile, Vasiliy Kashin, Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) University in Moscow, told the Russian media outlet RBC that the US has imposed sanctions on the Chinese economy since the first shock period, adding that these measures would very likely tighten in the event of a fresh export wave.

According to assessments reported by the Financial Times, this new process could also shake China’s own economy. Alongside rising output, entry-level manufacturing plants across the country are turning toward automation and reducing personnel.

This trend could trigger a painful departure from labour-intensive production, leaving millions unemployed. Manufacturing activities in China that previously capitalised on cheap labour are shifting to other Southeast Asian countries.

The Beijing administration rejected allegations that its industrialisation steps pose risks to other countries. As reported by the Xinhua news agency, China’s Ministry of Commerce stressed that claims of a “China shock 2.0” are groundless. The ministry stated:

“The US and other Western countries have circulated the so-called ‘China shock 2.0’ narrative, asserting that China’s industrial development has shaken Western monopolies and narrowed growth space for Global South countries. This claim is unsupported by concrete data and is entirely unfounded.”

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