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U.S. urges Ukraine to lower military conscription age to 18

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The United States has recommended that Ukraine lower its military conscription age from 25 to 18, alongside implementing additional mobilization measures to address the shortage of troops. This proposal aims to strengthen Ukraine’s operational capacity and address the manpower deficit on the battlefield.

The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has urged Ukraine to reconsider its conscription policies to expand the size of its armed forces.

According to the Associated Press, citing an anonymous White House source, Washington is advocating for reducing the age of conscription from the current 25 to 18.

U.S. officials argue that this change would increase Ukraine’s mobilization reserves, enabling faster replenishment of the army. The source emphasized that the current battlefield conditions demand an urgent increase in troop numbers, suggesting that Ukraine’s current mobilization and training efforts are insufficient.

A White House representative stated that Ukrainian estimates indicate the need for approximately 160,000 new recruits, but Washington believes this figure should be significantly higher.

The representative further noted that the Russian army continues its advance in eastern Ukraine and intensifies pressure on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk oblast. Additional mobilization efforts and an increase in manpower could potentially shift the balance of the war, according to the U.S. administration.

In addition to suggesting a lower conscription age, Washington is proposing stricter measures against deserters, which, it believes, would lead to more efficient use of Ukraine’s military resources.

A separate Associated Press report, citing European officials, revealed that Western European allies have also expressed concerns to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky regarding the army’s personnel challenges.

According to these allies, the shortage of troops remains a critical factor hindering Ukraine’s ability to conduct operations on multiple fronts, including in Russia’s Kursk region. Officials pointed out that the primary issue is not a lack of weapons but insufficient manpower.

DIPLOMACY

U.S. to impose new chip restrictions on China

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The Biden administration is considering additional restrictions on the sale of semiconductor equipment and artificial intelligence (AI) memory chips to China, sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.

The restrictions could be announced as early as next week. However, the timing and specifics of the rules have shifted several times, and nothing is final until the official release.

These new measures follow months of negotiations between U.S. officials and discussions with allies in Japan and the Netherlands, alongside intense lobbying by American chip equipment makers. The latter group has warned that tougher measures could severely impact their business.

Biden administration softens tough measures

The latest proposal contains significant differences from earlier drafts, according to the sources. One major change is the list of Chinese companies that will face trade restrictions. Previously, the U.S. had considered sanctioning six suppliers of Huawei, China’s telecom giant at the heart of its technology sector. Officials were aware of at least half a dozen more Chinese companies potentially affected.

However, under the new proposal, only some of these Huawei suppliers will be added to the restricted list. ChangXin Memory Technologies, which is attempting to develop AI memory chip technology, will be exempt from the measures.

The final version of U.S. controls will also include provisions targeting high-bandwidth memory chips, which are essential for data storage and critical to the development of artificial intelligence.

Partial victory for U.S. companies doing business with China

Major companies like Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology—a leading U.S. memory chip maker—are expected to be impacted by the new measures.

In reaction to the news, Japanese chip stocks surged. Tokyo Electron saw a 10% gain in early trading, Screen Holdings rose by around 10%, and Kokusai Electric surged by 23%.

The rules will also impose sanctions on two chip factories owned by Huawei’s chip manufacturing partner, Semiconductor Manufacturing International.

The new restrictions will focus on Chinese companies that produce semiconductor manufacturing equipment rather than the fabrication facilities responsible for producing chips.

This move is seen as a partial victory for U.S. chipmakers, including Lam Research, Applied Materials, and KLA, which have been calling for an easing of unilateral U.S. restrictions on key Chinese companies, including the six Huawei suppliers.

Dutch and Japanese position remains unclear

While the U.S. has made progress with its allies in imposing sanctions, the position of Japan and the Netherlands remains uncertain. Both countries have imposed some restrictions on China, in partial compliance with U.S. measures from 2022. However, they have recently resisted further U.S. pressure for tighter controls.

The new U.S. rules will continue to exempt allies like Japan and the Netherlands from provisions of the so-called Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR), sources familiar with the matter have said.

It remains unclear whether Japan or the Netherlands will impose additional restrictions on Chinese companies that the U.S. plans to sanction.

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Trump’s tariff plans put Chinese investment in Mexico on hold

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Fear and uncertainty are spreading rapidly among Chinese-owned businesses in Mexico following President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from the Latin American country.

In areas that once hosted Chinese delegations almost daily—such as the industrial parks in Monterrey, the northern manufacturing hub—new factories had begun sprouting up within months on land purchased by visitors. However, earlier this year, this trend started to slow.

This shift follows Trump’s election campaign promise to halt Chinese-backed factories in Mexico from sending duty-free cars to the U.S. by imposing a 100% tariff—a policy that has yet to be implemented.

“Most of them have switched to waiting and watching,” said an executive at a Chinese-funded factory in Monterrey, who requested anonymity. Speaking to the South China Morning Post, the executive added, “[Trump] talks a lot; it depends on how he does it.”

The wave of Chinese companies entering Mexico began during Trump’s trade war with China in his first term. High tariffs on Chinese goods benefitted Mexico, where products meeting certain rules of origin could enter the U.S. market tariff-free with much lower freight costs.

“If I were advising Chinese companies currently considering investing in Mexico, my advice—unlike what I did during the six years I was in China trying to bring investment to Mexico—would be to ‘stop and wait,’” said Jorge Guajardo, Mexico’s former ambassador to China and now a partner at DGA Group, a global business consulting firm.

“My thinking about Chinese companies in Mexico is that ‘Made by China’ is the new ‘Made in China,’” he added.

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Which European countries will comply with the ICC arrest warrant?

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has sparked widespread reactions across Europe. Countries including Ireland, Belgium, France, Slovenia, Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Sweden, Switzerland, Portugal, Spain, Norway, Lithuania, Estonia, and Liechtenstein have stated their readiness to comply with the ICC’s decision.

Following the ICC’s announcement on 21 November regarding arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in Gaza, most European nations have declared unconditional compliance. However, some countries criticized the decision, taking an ambiguous stance.

Borrell calls for compliance with court order

The EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, urged member states to adhere to the ICC ruling, emphasizing its judicial rather than political nature. Borrell stated:

“This is not a political decision; it is a judicial decision. It is the verdict of an international court with strong support from EU member states. Its rulings are legal and binding. There can be no picking and choosing.”

Borrell also highlighted the dire situation in Gaza, describing it as “hell on earth,” and condemned the proliferation of “manipulation and disinformation.”

Countries supporting the ICC decision

A majority of European countries expressed their intention to respect and implement the ICC arrest warrant:

Ireland: Prime Minister Simon Harris remarked, “Ireland respects the role of the ICC. Those in a position to assist the Court in its vital work should act urgently.”

Netherlands: Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp stated that Netanyahu would be arrested if he visited the Netherlands, underscoring the nation’s obligation under the Rome Statute.

Belgium: Deputy Prime Minister Petra De Sutter called for compliance with the ruling and economic sanctions against Israel, stating, “War crimes and crimes against humanity cannot go unpunished.”

Spain: Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz affirmed, “We are always on the side of justice and international law. Genocide against the Palestinian people cannot go unpunished.”

France: Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot declared that France would apply international law regarding the ICC’s decision. “France is committed to international justice and its independence,” he said.

Diverging opinions among European nations

Some countries expressed reservations about the ICC decision:

Germany: Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that Germany is analyzing the practical implications of the arrest warrants. Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit noted that implementing such arrests might prove challenging.

Hungary: Prime Minister Viktor Orbán criticized the decision and extended an invitation to Netanyahu, guaranteeing immunity from the ICC’s jurisdiction during his visit.

Austria: Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg argued that the ICC’s decision undermines the Court’s credibility while emphasizing the need for consistent application of international law.

Czech Republic: Prime Minister Petr Fiala described the decision as “unfortunate” but reaffirmed the country’s commitment to legal obligations under the Rome Statute.

Obligations under the Rome Statute

Under Articles 86 and 87 of the Rome Statute, states party to the ICC are required to cooperate with the Court and execute arrest warrants. Article 89 specifically mandates that any ICC member state must arrest and surrender individuals subject to arrest warrants when they enter its territory.

Previous cases demonstrate the challenges of enforcing such decisions. For example, South Africa and Jordan failed to execute arrest warrants for former Sudanese leader Omar al-Bashir, while Mongolia did not act on a warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nonetheless, these warrants restrict the freedom of movement for suspects, as seen with Putin’s avoidance of the BRICS summit in South Africa.

Netanyahu and Gallant will face similar restrictions, as they are now barred from traveling to 124 ICC member states, including all European Union members, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, and most nations in Central and South America and Africa.

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