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A year that shook the global system

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It has been a year since February 24th. The long history of the Russian-Ukrainian tensions has been marked by a year of hot conflict. While the parties did not give up on their strategic goals, the door of a long period of uncertainty was opened in which the global system skidded and shook.

On February 24, 2022, Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a “special operation” and led the Russian army into Ukraine. Thus, the long-standing Russia-Ukraine tensions, in other words, the mistrust between the West and Russia, has moved to another level.

The security mechanisms established with Europe and NATO after the Cold War and the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements, which are the address of the search for a solution to the crisis in Ukraine, have lost their historical meaning. It remains unclear how this new page will be closed and how the European security order will take shape in the aftermath of this war.

“This is a European war,” said Prof. Dr. Vişne Korkmaz, “There are vehicles of various sizes on this military and political battlefield. We are on a crowded floor. We are not in the same situation as we were in 1945.”

“The fight started on a crowded field,” Korkmaz said, noting that arm wrestling over the global system could continue for a long time in line with the parties’ own agendas.

What was Russia’s goal?

The Russo-Ukrainian war, or “special military operation” as Moscow calls it, began as a result of a failure to meet the security guarantees demanded by Russia from the United States and NATO, and in total from the Atlantic world. The Western system, led by the United States, responded to Moscow’s intensified insistence in the last quarter of 2021 on “security guarantees”, the story of which dates back to the end of the Cold War, by further arming Ukraine.

For decision-makers in the Kremlin, this meant ignoring Russia as a great power. Dialogue mechanisms and protocols aimed at softening the conflicts and finding a solution were now “a diversionary tactic used by the West to further arm Ukraine” for Moscow.

Nisantasi University Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Vişne Korkmaz sees the historic decision on February 24th as a “mistake” for Moscow and adds “this conflict is also about shaping European security.”

Evaluating the one-year war process to Harici, Korkmaz said, “Russia had two goals. Converting the post-Cold War European Security architecture to a point where it would be more advantageous. They failed to accomplish this without war. The West did not give Russia what it wanted in this sense. Russia became a party to the conventional European war. Secondly, we were aware of the conventional power of Russia. Russia was a great power, but not quite. Russia wanted to become a great power. Status is a position granted by the parties to you. Russia could not come close to achieving these two goals, but I do not see a war that Russia has lost yet. The facts of the field do not show a complete loss.”

How to disrupt the pat situation on the field?

“We are not evaluating the fronts of a war that ended like the Second World War. We are currently following an open conflict between two asymmetrical forces: this is a European war!” Korkmaz emphasized the lively, dynamic and variable aspect of the process.

Korkmaz assessed that the reality on the field could change if Ukraine sweeps the Russian forces from its territory or if Russia changes its strategic objectives, and said that she does not see such a possibility for the time being.

“It is a strange war, a war that can be continued. It will probably take longer. There are unknowns,” Korkmaz said, adding that both Russia and the West have made miscalculations.

“There is a deadlock for Russia that it has not given up on. I do not think it will revise its strategic goals. It has not even revised its tactical goals. It has not given up on its demands regarding the security future of the EU,” Korkmaz summarized Moscow’s current situation and added “The West also made a mistake, thinking that Russia could be isolated very easily. Russia has to continue in a way that brings it closer to its strategic goals. Moscow could not be pushed out of the system globally. It is not easy to keep a great power out of the system.”

What is the situation on the Western Front?

Referring to the “different voices” that emerge from time to time in the West, Korkmaz said, “Everyone has a different purpose. Each purpose has its own unique schedule. We are talking about a long struggle with different stages.”

Stating that it was a “struggle over the global system unlike the Cold War”, Korkmaz said, “Europe was caught unprepared and followed the US. It could not create its own stance and means.”

For the state of Europe, Korkmaz noted, “There seems to be only one West. Different voices have died out. Europe had to adapt itself to the NATO and EU agenda because it was not prepared. That is why Europe did not speak out.”

Where and how will the war end?

While the Istanbul process and the People’s Republic of China’s 12-point plan stand out as concrete efforts to resolve the crisis, there has yet to be a strong will to bring the parties to the negotiating table. The West is currently busy arming Ukraine, and Russia is reportedly preparing for a frontal offensive.

“I do not think Russia will test ‘NATO’ deterrence. There is a real risk that the war will spread to areas outside the NATO umbrella, such as Moldova,” Korkmaz said.

According to Prof. Dr. Korkmaz the United States has begun to move more towards the Asian front regarding its global goals. At this point, “The United States has been targeting China in particular recently. The message given through Ukraine is directed at China. The United States have more time for China,” she said and commented “The West has succeeded in limiting Russia to the Ukraine war.”

Korkmaz thinks that “the peace plans do not offer much either,” adding, “We are still in a deep stalemate. Russia has not lost totally.” Stating that although the “Ukrainian resistance” has been successful so far, Kiev is also far from winning, Korkmaz argued that a long-term struggle is a reality.

For now, it seems impossible to predict where the gods of war will stop. What is certain is that the world has become too large to fit into its old mold and seems ready to establish a new security framework. It is necessary to see that peace can only be established around new concepts and with a new understanding.

A quote by the famous Italian Marxist Antonio Gramcsi summarizes the situation: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.”

RUSSIA

What does Russia’s update of its nuclear doctrine mean?

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Russia has updated its nuclear deterrence policy, defining threats to the security of Belarus as a potential justification for the use of nuclear weapons. While experts argue that these changes are largely declaratory, they also suggest that the timing of this update may be linked to U.S. missile support for Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved the amendments to the doctrinal document entitled Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence. The announcement was made during a meeting on 25 September 2024, where Putin revealed the changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine.

In June 2024, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov hinted at the need for an update, citing lessons learned from military operations. The new text, in line with Putin’s directives, introduces significant changes to the conditions under which nuclear weapons can be used:

Nuclear retaliation is now justified in cases where critical threats arise to the security of not only Russia but also Belarus.

The updated doctrine expands the scope of threats to include cruise missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), hypersonic weapons, and other aerospace attack systems. Previously, the scope was limited to ballistic missile attacks.

The doctrine highlights the importance of continuous updates to adapt to evolving security conditions.

When asked whether the publication of this doctrine was connected to the U.S. decision to send ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed the idea of coincidence, stating that the document was published “on time.”

Peskov emphasized a critical new provision: If a non-nuclear state attacks Russia with the backing of a nuclear-armed state, it will be treated as a joint nuclear attack. This underscores Russia’s heightened sensitivity to Western support for Ukraine, especially in light of escalating tensions with NATO.

Several experts have weighed in on the implications of the updated nuclear doctrine:

Alexander Yermakov, a specialist at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), noted that the changes largely clarify existing provisions. For instance, the scope of retaliation has expanded to include drones and cruise missiles, whereas previous documents only referred to ballistic missile attacks.

According to Yermakov, the timing of the doctrine could be a strategic response to recent U.S. military aid to Ukraine: “These changes were announced earlier. However, in light of recent developments, they were published to remind of the risks of possible escalation.”

Dmitry Stefanovic, an expert from the Centre for International Security at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, highlighted that the new doctrine reflects global nuclear trends.

Stefanovic noted that some countries have increased their arsenals, new nuclear-weapon states have emerged, and the importance of the nuclear factor has increased in recent years.

The expert added that the doctrine contains elements that strengthen nuclear cooperation with Belarus.

“The updated document further clarifies the issue of the ‘nuclear threshold’ – the necessary conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. This is no cause for relief, either for Russia or its rivals. If the risk of direct confrontation with the US and NATO remains, a scenario of rapid nuclear escalation is always possible,” Stefanovic said.

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U.S. rehearses nuclear strike on Russian border

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NATO’s Joint Air Forces Command has announced that the United States’ B-52H Stratofortress strategic bombers recently conducted a training bombing mission at the Cudgel range near Kaliningrad Oblast.

The exercise was coordinated with Italian and German fighter jets, demonstrating NATO’s operational cooperation. It involved dropping laser-guided bombs from an altitude of six kilometers as part of the Vanguard Merlin exercise, a tactical program organized by U.S. rotational units in Europe.

The deployment of B-52 bombers to Europe is described by NATO as a routine measure aimed at “protecting allies and deterring potential threats.”

In early November, the U.S. Air Force stationed four B-52 aircraft at Mildenhall Air Base in the UK. Since their arrival, the bombers have flown over Finland, Sweden, the North Sea, and Lithuania, expanding NATO’s aerial presence in the region.

On 15 November, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, citing sources within President Joe Biden’s administration, that the United States plans to increase its deployed nuclear warheads in response to growing threats from Russia, China, and North Korea.

The report revealed that the White House had previously drafted a classified directive to prepare for potential simultaneous conflicts with Moscow, Beijing, and Pyongyang. While the strategy emphasizes the development of non-nuclear deterrence, it also considers enhancing nuclear capabilities.

These proposals are currently under evaluation by the Pentagon, with final decisions expected from the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump.

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Russia will not give Israel guarantees on Hezbollah

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In an interview with RIA Novosti, Alexander Lavrentiev, the Russian President’s special envoy to Syria, stated that Moscow could not provide Israel with guarantees to prevent “arms smuggling” from Syria to Lebanon.

Earlier reports from the Israeli press indicated that Israel would like to see Russia as a mediator in the Middle East peace settlement. Lavrentiev confirmed that Israel had requested guarantees from Russia to prevent Shiite groups from moving military equipment through Syria to Lebanon. However, he clarified that this demand could not be met.

“This would require the establishment of new checkpoints along the border, a task that does not fall within the competence of the Russian military in Syria,” Lavrentiev explained.

When asked about Israel’s expectation of a security guarantee, Lavrentiev responded, “First of all, we cannot give such a guarantee.”

Reports have previously indicated that Israel has been in contact with Moscow regarding the regional settlement process. It was even suggested that Strategic Planning Minister Ron Dermer, one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s closest advisors, was planning a confidential visit to Moscow.

Meanwhile, Itamar Eichner, a columnist for Yedioth Ahronoth, noted in his column yesterday that Israel understands Russia’s influence over Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran. “This is why Tel Aviv seeks guarantees from Moscow to prevent arms smuggling and to stop the Lebanese terrorist organization from recovering from the war,” Eichner wrote.

Commenting on Israel’s desire to secure the Syrian-Lebanese border, Lavrentiev highlighted a recent attack near Khmeimim Air Base in Syria. Although this incident took place about a month ago and did not directly impact Russian troops, Lavrentiev felt compelled to address it.

“Israel carried out an airstrike near Khmeimim. They did not target the air base directly, as they know this would have serious consequences for Israel. Reports suggest that the strike targeted warehouses and buildings in the vicinity,” Lavrentiev stated.

He also mentioned that the Russian Defense Ministry had “sent a representative to Israel” for further discussions.

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