Connect with us

Russia

A year that shook the global system

Published

on

It has been a year since February 24th. The long history of the Russian-Ukrainian tensions has been marked by a year of hot conflict. While the parties did not give up on their strategic goals, the door of a long period of uncertainty was opened in which the global system skidded and shook.

On February 24, 2022, Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a “special operation” and led the Russian army into Ukraine. Thus, the long-standing Russia-Ukraine tensions, in other words, the mistrust between the West and Russia, has moved to another level.

The security mechanisms established with Europe and NATO after the Cold War and the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements, which are the address of the search for a solution to the crisis in Ukraine, have lost their historical meaning. It remains unclear how this new page will be closed and how the European security order will take shape in the aftermath of this war.

“This is a European war,” said Prof. Dr. Vişne Korkmaz, “There are vehicles of various sizes on this military and political battlefield. We are on a crowded floor. We are not in the same situation as we were in 1945.”

“The fight started on a crowded field,” Korkmaz said, noting that arm wrestling over the global system could continue for a long time in line with the parties’ own agendas.

What was Russia’s goal?

The Russo-Ukrainian war, or “special military operation” as Moscow calls it, began as a result of a failure to meet the security guarantees demanded by Russia from the United States and NATO, and in total from the Atlantic world. The Western system, led by the United States, responded to Moscow’s intensified insistence in the last quarter of 2021 on “security guarantees”, the story of which dates back to the end of the Cold War, by further arming Ukraine.

For decision-makers in the Kremlin, this meant ignoring Russia as a great power. Dialogue mechanisms and protocols aimed at softening the conflicts and finding a solution were now “a diversionary tactic used by the West to further arm Ukraine” for Moscow.

Nisantasi University Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Vişne Korkmaz sees the historic decision on February 24th as a “mistake” for Moscow and adds “this conflict is also about shaping European security.”

Evaluating the one-year war process to Harici, Korkmaz said, “Russia had two goals. Converting the post-Cold War European Security architecture to a point where it would be more advantageous. They failed to accomplish this without war. The West did not give Russia what it wanted in this sense. Russia became a party to the conventional European war. Secondly, we were aware of the conventional power of Russia. Russia was a great power, but not quite. Russia wanted to become a great power. Status is a position granted by the parties to you. Russia could not come close to achieving these two goals, but I do not see a war that Russia has lost yet. The facts of the field do not show a complete loss.”

How to disrupt the pat situation on the field?

“We are not evaluating the fronts of a war that ended like the Second World War. We are currently following an open conflict between two asymmetrical forces: this is a European war!” Korkmaz emphasized the lively, dynamic and variable aspect of the process.

Korkmaz assessed that the reality on the field could change if Ukraine sweeps the Russian forces from its territory or if Russia changes its strategic objectives, and said that she does not see such a possibility for the time being.

“It is a strange war, a war that can be continued. It will probably take longer. There are unknowns,” Korkmaz said, adding that both Russia and the West have made miscalculations.

“There is a deadlock for Russia that it has not given up on. I do not think it will revise its strategic goals. It has not even revised its tactical goals. It has not given up on its demands regarding the security future of the EU,” Korkmaz summarized Moscow’s current situation and added “The West also made a mistake, thinking that Russia could be isolated very easily. Russia has to continue in a way that brings it closer to its strategic goals. Moscow could not be pushed out of the system globally. It is not easy to keep a great power out of the system.”

What is the situation on the Western Front?

Referring to the “different voices” that emerge from time to time in the West, Korkmaz said, “Everyone has a different purpose. Each purpose has its own unique schedule. We are talking about a long struggle with different stages.”

Stating that it was a “struggle over the global system unlike the Cold War”, Korkmaz said, “Europe was caught unprepared and followed the US. It could not create its own stance and means.”

For the state of Europe, Korkmaz noted, “There seems to be only one West. Different voices have died out. Europe had to adapt itself to the NATO and EU agenda because it was not prepared. That is why Europe did not speak out.”

Where and how will the war end?

While the Istanbul process and the People’s Republic of China’s 12-point plan stand out as concrete efforts to resolve the crisis, there has yet to be a strong will to bring the parties to the negotiating table. The West is currently busy arming Ukraine, and Russia is reportedly preparing for a frontal offensive.

“I do not think Russia will test ‘NATO’ deterrence. There is a real risk that the war will spread to areas outside the NATO umbrella, such as Moldova,” Korkmaz said.

According to Prof. Dr. Korkmaz the United States has begun to move more towards the Asian front regarding its global goals. At this point, “The United States has been targeting China in particular recently. The message given through Ukraine is directed at China. The United States have more time for China,” she said and commented “The West has succeeded in limiting Russia to the Ukraine war.”

Korkmaz thinks that “the peace plans do not offer much either,” adding, “We are still in a deep stalemate. Russia has not lost totally.” Stating that although the “Ukrainian resistance” has been successful so far, Kiev is also far from winning, Korkmaz argued that a long-term struggle is a reality.

For now, it seems impossible to predict where the gods of war will stop. What is certain is that the world has become too large to fit into its old mold and seems ready to establish a new security framework. It is necessary to see that peace can only be established around new concepts and with a new understanding.

A quote by the famous Italian Marxist Antonio Gramcsi summarizes the situation: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.”

Russia

Kremlin says legal hurdles need removal for Ukraine negotiations

Published

on

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that legal obstacles must be removed for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine to begin.

Speaking at a press conference today, Peskov commented on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s proposal for a ban on attacks on civilian infrastructure, saying, “Before negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv can begin, ‘legal obstacles need to be cleared’.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in response to Russia’s declared Easter ceasefire on April 20, had proposed “refraining from any attacks on civilian infrastructure with long-range unmanned aerial vehicles and missiles for a period of at least 30 days, with the possibility of extension.”

Putin had stated that this initiative could be discussed “at a bilateral level, as a result of dialogue.”

Journalists asked Peskov how Moscow and Kyiv could engage in dialogue, despite Russia repeatedly stating that negotiations with Ukraine are officially prohibited.

Peskov replied, “With the openness of the Ukrainian side, some steps need to be taken to legally clear these obstacles standing in the way of such contacts, if there is such preparation.”

Zelenskyy signed a decree in October 2022 stating that negotiations with Russia are impossible as long as Putin is in office.

This decree followed the accession of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Luhansk People’s Republic, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts to Russia.

Peskov stated that there are no concrete negotiation plans yet regarding the ban on attacks targeting civilian objects.

“First, this needs to be discussed. And President Putin said he is ready to discuss it. But there is nothing concrete on this matter,” Peskov added.

Peskov recalled that Putin had already explained the complexity of this proposal: it is necessary to clearly understand under what circumstances civilian objects can be military targets and under what circumstances they cannot.

The Kremlin Spokesman explained, “For example, if militants are holding a meeting there, is it a civilian object? It is civilian. But is it a military target? It is a military target. So there are nuances here that need to be discussed.”

A 30-day ban on attacks targeting energy infrastructure was in effect in Russia and Ukraine starting from March 18.

Putin had said that Kyiv violated the moratorium more than 100 times.

The Kremlin had explained the attacks as “complete lack of control” by the Ukrainian military. Kyiv, however, had denied attacks targeting energy infrastructure.

Continue Reading

Russia

US considers recognizing Crimea as Russian territory in peace proposal

Published

on

According to The Wall Street Journal, the US has presented Ukraine with a proposal drafted by the Donald Trump administration aimed at ending the conflict. This proposal includes certain concessions to Moscow.

According to the newspaper, these concessions include Washington recognizing Crimea, which was annexed by the Russian Federation in 2014, as Russian territory and excluding the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO.

The newspaper reported that these ideas were outlined in a document presented by senior US administration officials to their Ukrainian counterparts and European officials in Paris on April 17.

Washington is awaiting a response from Kyiv at a meeting with representatives from Ukraine and European countries in London this weekend.

If the parties’ positions align, the proposals could then be forwarded to Moscow.

Washington does not recognize Russia’s control over the Donbas republics, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, but the US is also not demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops from these regions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated last summer that for the peace process to begin, these regions must be internationally recognized as belonging to Russia, and Ukrainian troops must completely withdraw from them.

Kyiv described these demands as an ultimatum. Both Russia and Ukraine reject territorial concessions.

According to Western officials, another proposal envisions the areas around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant gaining neutral status and being controlled by the US.

According to the newspaper’s sources, the US is not proposing to limit the size of the Ukrainian army, is not excluding Western military support for Kyiv, or the deployment of European troops to Ukraine, which constitutes a “fundamental obstacle” for Moscow.

A senior official from the US Department of State, who was not named, told the newspaper that the US is not operating on a “take it or leave it” principle when conveying its ideas to Ukraine, and that it wants Kyiv to consider them.

The official stated that the “list of possible options” was presented “for discussion and feedback.”

The possibility of the US considering recognizing Russia’s control over Crimea as part of a broader peace agreement was first reported by Bloomberg and confirmed by a source at CNN.

WSJ notes that such a step would contradict Washington’s policy of over a decade.

The US imposed sanctions on Russia in 2014, and in 2018, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who served during the first term of the Trump administration, described Moscow’s actions as a “threat to the fundamental international principle shared by democratic states, namely that no country can change another country’s borders by force.”

During the same period, the US Congress passed a law prohibiting the recognition of the peninsula as belonging to Russia.

Continue Reading

Russia

Taliban no longer considered terrorist group by Russia

Published

on

The Russian Supreme Court has removed the Taliban movement from its list of terrorist organizations, suspending the ban on its activities in Russia.

Judge Oleg Nefedov, announcing the decision made at the request of Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov, stated that the decision should be implemented immediately.

The Taliban movement had been banned in Russia since 2003. Despite this, Moscow has maintained active contact with the Taliban in recent years.

Taliban representatives were even invited to events attended by President Vladimir Putin.

Putin had referred to the Taliban as “allies” and stated that Russia was working to remove them from the terrorist list. In December 2024, the Duma adopted a law that foresaw such a possibility.

According to the document, an organization can be removed from the list of banned organizations if it ceases activities “aimed at promoting, justifying, and supporting terrorism.” This decision is made by a court at the request of the prosecutor general or their deputy.

According to Verstka’s calculations based on open-source data, at least 37 Russian citizens were subjected to administrative or criminal prosecution between 2016 and 2025 due to cases related to the banned group.

One of the recent cases involved journalist Nadezhda Kevorkova. Kevorkova was fined 600,000 rubles for promoting terrorism due to a post on her Telegram channel mentioning the Taliban.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Justice had insisted on the removal of the organization from the banned list.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Maria Zakharova explained that this was based on pragmatic reasons. The FSB stated that the Taliban was ready to fight the ISIS-Khorasan terrorist organization, which was linked to the attack on the Crocus City Hall concert venue near Moscow.

In the attack, 145 people died and more than 550 were injured.

Security Council Chairman Sergey Shoygu stated that allowing the Taliban’s activities was necessary to “strengthen political and economic ties” between Russia and Afghanistan.

The Taliban took control of Afghanistan in 2021 after the withdrawal of US troops from the country.

The government formed by the militants has not yet been legitimately recognized by any state, including Russia, as it has not fulfilled its obligations regarding respect for human rights, the establishment of an inclusive political system, and the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey