RUSSIA
Russia and Ukraine prepare for fierce war in spring
In the Donbas regions of Solidar and Bahamut, conflicts between Russia and Ukraine intensified. The Solidar-Bahmut line is deemed “crucial” for Ukraine’s defense. Despite contradictory statements from the parties regarding the most current situation at the front, it is evident that the fighting sides are gearing up for a major clash in the spring.
The frontal combat became more intense in East Ukraine. Russia is preparing for the next stage by making new appointments and buildups at the tactical and administrative levels. Meanwhile, Ukraine is seeking to expand its supply from the West to include strategic strikes.
“The present situation in the field is similar to the war of position,” concluded Assoc. Prof. Ali Fuat Gökçe of Gaziantep University, “It’s stuck in certain spots. There are wars of position.” “Russia is preparing for spring, and Ukraine is as well. It’s an attempt to make up for material deficiencies. At this point, the parties are in the recovery phase,” Gökçe stated.
According to Gökçe, the Western side is divided for the course of the war, and “violent clashes starting in March” are likely unless something unusual in conditions happens.
“The United States seeks a passive Russia in the Pacific”
“The US wants the war to continue against the will of Continental Europe. This is straightforward and evident,” said Gökçe and went on to note that the USA acted with a similar approach during World War II. “The USA has used that in the past as well. In World War II, Germany was the enemy of the USA. However, the United States waited for the Soviet Union to wear down Germany before deciding to join the conflict,” he remarked.
Underscoring that the United States is still using the “Ukraine depleting Russia” strategy, Gökçe argues that Washington wants the war to continue to “make Russia compatible with itself.”
According to Gökçe, the strategic calculation here is in line with the USA’s Asia-Pacific policy, which advocates that “Russia should be weakened not to meddle into the Pacific region” and “for this, the USA employs Ukraine and wants the war to continue.”
“Belarus’s entry into the all-out war is against Russia”
Western media outlets often speculate that the Belarusian armed forces may be involved in the war. It would not be beneficial for Belarus to go to war,” Skeptical of its possibility, Ali Fuat Gökçe stated, “It would not be good for Belarus to enter into the war. Not for Russia either. But Russia can make use of Belarusian territory.”
For Gökçe, “Belarusian territory may be of Russian use, but the Belarusian army cannot be employed,” and he uses the map above to illustrate his point with historical examples. Accordingly, the situation is as follows:
In 1812, Napoleon led his army to Moscow by following the blue line on the map. Following the path of the red arrows, Hitler attempted to invade Russia and occupy Moscow during World War II. The Baltic Sea and the vast plains north of the Carpathian Mountains are shown in black along the north-south axis. Stating that this line has an important place in Russia’s historical memory, Ali Fuat Gökçe claims that Russia is opposed to Ukraine joining NATO to defend this line.
After this point, the north of the Carpathians and the lands of Belarus, that is, the large plains opening to Moscow, may develop into a conflict region, and Russia does not want this, according to Gökçe, who says, “If Belarus joins a total war, that will lay a foundation for NATO to attack Belarus.” said Gökçe and emphasized that after this point, the north of the Carpathians and the lands of Belarus, the large plains opening to Moscow, may develop into a conflict region, and it would not be a case Russia is willing to counter.
According to Gökçe, Moscow is not aiming to conquer all of Ukraine but rather is angling for a change of leadership in Kyiv. Targeting critical infrastructure, Russia is seeking internal turmoil in Ukraine that can create a crisis over basic needs like power, water, and heating, Gökçe said and added, to make a firm forecast about the course of the war, the atmosphere is highly unpredictable.
The recent Islamic States Khurasan IS-K firing against occupants of a concert hall in Moscow, the capital city of Russia, has not only jolted the world but it is now giving new turns and directions to global strategic battling which is still controlled by two traditional rival US and Russian Federation (successor of USSR). Whatever may be directions and targets of follow up of Moscow firing incidents but its epicenter wouldn’t be other than border regions between former British India and Afghanistan, dominated by Pushtoons.
No one can deny the fact that worriers Pushtoons are no more independent as they have been made slaves and hostages by spy masters of US led allies through Saudi Arab and Pakistan on the sacred name of Islam and Jihad. The Islamic States (IS) also called Daesh is the latest virgin of Mujahideen, sponsored, trained, financed and encouraged by US led allies against former Soviet Union. The IS came into being at the time when at last moment of first decade of millennium, US lead allies made fed up by continuous resistance by Taliban in war devastated Afghanistan.
At early stages, the IS focused almost its attentions and strategies against Shia Iran whereas it was engaged in efforts for the survival of Syrian government. Despite wholehearted support of US led allies especially Saudi led Arab world, the IS had failed in Syrian war. IS militants after its failure, returned to war devastated Afghanistan at the time when Pakistan also pulled al-Qaeda remains out of tribal regions with commencing of military operation Zarb-i-Azab on June 15, 2014 last. Making Afghanistan as its base camp like of al-Qaeda, the IS had made hells lives of all those progressive, nationalists, democrats and moderate Pushtoon elders who are known for opposition to extremism and terrorism. At this stage, the IS constituted 40-member council (Shura) for making its decisions and strategies. Majority of 40-member council were those who remain on important offices in banned Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Still the IS is commanded by Pakistani origin Taliban who are in cordial and friendly links with Taliban (Emirate Islami Afghanistan) governing Afghanistan. The Emirate Islami has already declared Afghanistan as a free and safe place for likeminded militants from all over the world.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin lights a candle during his visit to a church of the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow on March 24, 2024, during a national day of mourning following the attack in the Crocus City Hall, POOL / AFP.
IS-K and the regional countries
It doesn’t mean that with killing of Osama Bin Laden and Aiman Al Zawahiri, al-Qaeda lost its existence or its contacts with other hardliners, operating/active on soil of Afghanistan since the so-called cold war. Taliban regime in Afghanistan like of late 90’s, once again give another life to almost alleged terrorists groups especially Arabs and Central Asians. Similarly like of past, the US still maintaining dual standards on the issue of Muslim extremism. Through one or the other ways, the US spy masters are still in command of influencing Taliban (both Afghani and Pakistani), al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups from different countries through its experienced and tested allies like Pakistan and Saudis like Afghan Mujahideen. In 2019, the US helped Afghan in joint combating against IS in Afghanistan’s eastern zone bordering with Pakistan. Over three thousand IS militants, mostly Pakistanis have been arrested during the crackdown but the Emirate Islami accredited itself for their release after returning into power on August 15th 2021 last.
The CAR militants like Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Ittehad Islami Jihad (Youghour), militants associated with East Turkistan Islamic Movement and others having a major space in IS. All these groups remained in good terms. Like Pakistani militants associated with both Pakistani and Afghan Taliban, a large number of CAR militants already slipped to IS. There are also reports of Afghan Taliban and Mujahideen’s joining of IS. Some of these Afghan Taliban disheartened when they were neglected in appointment against choice political, civil and military offices. Whereas someone fell victims of perks and power.
Russia doubts IS did Moscow attack
It comes as another uncertainty when Russia on Monday apparently doubt on assertions by the US that the Islamic State (ISIS) extremist group was responsible for the attack on a concert hall that killed 137 people and wounded 182 more.
The Friday night attack marked as the deadliest inside Russia in the two decades as four IS militants stormed into the Crocus City Hall and immediately want on rampage and brought everyone under fire.
IS-K claimed responsibility for the attack, but Russian officials yet to conform it was the work of Daesh rather they said that these four terrorist were arrested while trying to escape to Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin has not publicly mentioned IS-K in connection with the attackers, who said that some people on “the Ukrainian side” had been prepared to spirit the gunmen across the border.
However, Ukraine had denied any role in the attack, but Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova said the US was spreading a version of the “bogeyman” of IS-K to cover its “wards” in Kyiv and reminded readers that Washington supported the “mujahideen” fighters who fought Soviet forces in the 1980s.
A man suspected of taking part in the attack of a concert hall that killed 137 people, sits in the defendant cage as he waits for his pre-trial detention hearing at the Basmanny District Court.
Afghanistan claims of stern action against IS
Though apparently, the Emirate Islami Afghanistan is making claims of stern action against the IS militants but it seems hard as it (Emirate) didn’t wants to harm all those who either played a role either in Afghan war against former USSR or War on terror, declared by US against al-Qaeda lead militants after 9/11. Taliban regime time and again making claims of strengthening its intelligence network again IS but all these foreign groups and individuals have already established better understanding with Afghan Taliban, majority of whom are now in occupation of important offices.
Despite its fueling politico-economic and security issues, Pakistan is still in a bid to get superiority in the region. US and China’s are compelled to have relations with Pakistan. Economically and politically, Pakistan seems in loss in race against India. India is considered biggest consumer market in Asia; therefore, China didn’t afford Pakistan-China hostilities. The new government of Shehbaz Sharif is making its best to have cordial relations between New Delhi and Islamabad but Pakistan’s powerful military establishment is thinking on other lines. Russian Federation President Putin has declared Emergency and War like situation, by saying that NATO troops are in Ukraine. In such a circumstance it could be hard for Pakistan to stay away from another round of Soviet-US tussles. There are apprehensions that like of so-called cold war, Afghanistan, especially Pushtoons dominated areas on both sides of Pak-Afghan border would again be front line in the new battle, commencing through IS.
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