Russia
A year that shook the global system
It has been a year since February 24th. The long history of the Russian-Ukrainian tensions has been marked by a year of hot conflict. While the parties did not give up on their strategic goals, the door of a long period of uncertainty was opened in which the global system skidded and shook.
On February 24, 2022, Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a “special operation” and led the Russian army into Ukraine. Thus, the long-standing Russia-Ukraine tensions, in other words, the mistrust between the West and Russia, has moved to another level.
The security mechanisms established with Europe and NATO after the Cold War and the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements, which are the address of the search for a solution to the crisis in Ukraine, have lost their historical meaning. It remains unclear how this new page will be closed and how the European security order will take shape in the aftermath of this war.
“This is a European war,” said Prof. Dr. Vişne Korkmaz, “There are vehicles of various sizes on this military and political battlefield. We are on a crowded floor. We are not in the same situation as we were in 1945.”
“The fight started on a crowded field,” Korkmaz said, noting that arm wrestling over the global system could continue for a long time in line with the parties’ own agendas.
What was Russia’s goal?
The Russo-Ukrainian war, or “special military operation” as Moscow calls it, began as a result of a failure to meet the security guarantees demanded by Russia from the United States and NATO, and in total from the Atlantic world. The Western system, led by the United States, responded to Moscow’s intensified insistence in the last quarter of 2021 on “security guarantees”, the story of which dates back to the end of the Cold War, by further arming Ukraine.
For decision-makers in the Kremlin, this meant ignoring Russia as a great power. Dialogue mechanisms and protocols aimed at softening the conflicts and finding a solution were now “a diversionary tactic used by the West to further arm Ukraine” for Moscow.
Nisantasi University Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Vişne Korkmaz sees the historic decision on February 24th as a “mistake” for Moscow and adds “this conflict is also about shaping European security.”
Evaluating the one-year war process to Harici, Korkmaz said, “Russia had two goals. Converting the post-Cold War European Security architecture to a point where it would be more advantageous. They failed to accomplish this without war. The West did not give Russia what it wanted in this sense. Russia became a party to the conventional European war. Secondly, we were aware of the conventional power of Russia. Russia was a great power, but not quite. Russia wanted to become a great power. Status is a position granted by the parties to you. Russia could not come close to achieving these two goals, but I do not see a war that Russia has lost yet. The facts of the field do not show a complete loss.”
How to disrupt the pat situation on the field?
“We are not evaluating the fronts of a war that ended like the Second World War. We are currently following an open conflict between two asymmetrical forces: this is a European war!” Korkmaz emphasized the lively, dynamic and variable aspect of the process.
Korkmaz assessed that the reality on the field could change if Ukraine sweeps the Russian forces from its territory or if Russia changes its strategic objectives, and said that she does not see such a possibility for the time being.
“It is a strange war, a war that can be continued. It will probably take longer. There are unknowns,” Korkmaz said, adding that both Russia and the West have made miscalculations.
“There is a deadlock for Russia that it has not given up on. I do not think it will revise its strategic goals. It has not even revised its tactical goals. It has not given up on its demands regarding the security future of the EU,” Korkmaz summarized Moscow’s current situation and added “The West also made a mistake, thinking that Russia could be isolated very easily. Russia has to continue in a way that brings it closer to its strategic goals. Moscow could not be pushed out of the system globally. It is not easy to keep a great power out of the system.”
What is the situation on the Western Front?
Referring to the “different voices” that emerge from time to time in the West, Korkmaz said, “Everyone has a different purpose. Each purpose has its own unique schedule. We are talking about a long struggle with different stages.”
Stating that it was a “struggle over the global system unlike the Cold War”, Korkmaz said, “Europe was caught unprepared and followed the US. It could not create its own stance and means.”
For the state of Europe, Korkmaz noted, “There seems to be only one West. Different voices have died out. Europe had to adapt itself to the NATO and EU agenda because it was not prepared. That is why Europe did not speak out.”
Where and how will the war end?
While the Istanbul process and the People’s Republic of China’s 12-point plan stand out as concrete efforts to resolve the crisis, there has yet to be a strong will to bring the parties to the negotiating table. The West is currently busy arming Ukraine, and Russia is reportedly preparing for a frontal offensive.
“I do not think Russia will test ‘NATO’ deterrence. There is a real risk that the war will spread to areas outside the NATO umbrella, such as Moldova,” Korkmaz said.
According to Prof. Dr. Korkmaz the United States has begun to move more towards the Asian front regarding its global goals. At this point, “The United States has been targeting China in particular recently. The message given through Ukraine is directed at China. The United States have more time for China,” she said and commented “The West has succeeded in limiting Russia to the Ukraine war.”
Korkmaz thinks that “the peace plans do not offer much either,” adding, “We are still in a deep stalemate. Russia has not lost totally.” Stating that although the “Ukrainian resistance” has been successful so far, Kiev is also far from winning, Korkmaz argued that a long-term struggle is a reality.
For now, it seems impossible to predict where the gods of war will stop. What is certain is that the world has become too large to fit into its old mold and seems ready to establish a new security framework. It is necessary to see that peace can only be established around new concepts and with a new understanding.
A quote by the famous Italian Marxist Antonio Gramcsi summarizes the situation: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.”
Russia has announced that it will ship 500,000 tonnes of diesel fuel to the global market under a partial lifting of its diesel export ban, enacted as part of measures concerning the Ukraine crisis and energy markets.
A statement from the Russian government said the decision was implemented in accordance with understandings reached between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.
Under the decision, which came into effect on 10 October, an initial phase of 500,000 tonnes of diesel fuel will be supplied to the global market.
“Following the rescinded decision, Russian oil companies, in coordination with the government, will immediately begin signing diesel fuel supply contracts with foreign business partners,” the government statement said.
Assessing the matter, Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak stressed that the decision would not affect the interests of Russian consumers.
Noting that diesel fuel is produced from Russian crude at domestic refineries, Novak stated that production volumes are sufficient both to meet all domestic market requirements in full and to ship the specified quantities to the global market.
The ban on diesel fuel exports in Russia was initially put into effect on 31 January 2026, covering only non-producing companies.
The government tightened the restrictions on 9 July by expanding them to include direct producers. Previously announced to remain in place until the end of October, the ban was partially relaxed in light of current developments.
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump held a telephone conversation on 9 October. Following the call, US President Trump announced that an agreement had been reached on the supply of Russian diesel.
Trump said Russia had agreed to send more than 300,000 tonnes of fuel to American and global markets in the initial phase, 500,000 tonnes in November, and 1 million tonnes thereafter.
Trump also stated that an additional shipment of 3 million tonnes could follow at a later stage, adding that they expect this agreement to reduce diesel fuel prices rapidly.
Following the conversation, the US Department of the Treasury, on Trump’s instructions, issued a temporary general licence exempting Russian diesel fuel transactions and shipments to the US—previously prohibited under sanctions—until 7 April 2027.
Putin, in a statement after the call, confirmed Russia’s readiness to supply crude oil and petroleum products to American and global markets, noting that this would have a positive impact on the world economy.
Putin also noted that the two leaders discussed prospects for resolving the conflict in Ukraine, the situation surrounding Iran, and bilateral relations, agreeing to maintain contacts through presidential envoys, intelligence agencies, and other institutions.
A statement issued by Novak’s office after the call said Russia was prepared to ship diesel to the US within October.
Novak stated that export volumes could be increased in November and December as refineries emerge from scheduled maintenance.
Novak also conveyed that Moscow views positively Washington’s steps towards stabilising the global energy market and normalising energy trade.
A drone strike has hit a data centre belonging to Russian internet company Yandex in the town of Sasovo, located in the Ryazan region.
The company announced that a fire triggered by the attack damaged part of the infrastructure and resulted in a complete shutdown of the facility’s operations. No casualties or injuries were reported in the incident.
In a statement, Yandex said competent authorities and relevant teams were working at the scene to remediate the damage.
Owing to the facility being knocked offline, it was noted that some of the company’s online services might temporarily become inaccessible to users.
The company provided no details regarding the financial scale of the damage or when the data centre would be brought back into service.
Shares slide, cloud infrastructure curbs introduced
Following the developments, Yandex shares fell by more than 3.4% as of 10:10 Türkiye time.
A drone threat alert was reportedly communicated to residents of the Ryazan region at 23:48 on the night of 7 October, with the alarm lifted at 02:46 on the morning of 8 October. The facility in Sasovo had commenced operations in 2014.
In an advisory issued via the Yandex Cloud Alerts channel, it was reported that power issues were occurring in the system’s “ru-central1-b” availability zone.
The company stated that efforts to transfer data workloads to other availability zones had been completed and that services in other zones continued to operate normally.
However, it was noted that temporary restrictions could be imposed on the creation of new resources within the cloud infrastructure. According to data from outage-monitoring platform Downdetector, an increase in user complaints concerning Yandex, Yandex Cloud, and the real estate platform CIAN was recorded on the morning of 8 October. Reports were observed to have originated predominantly from Moscow and surrounding regions.
Data centre targeted for first time after logistics warehouses
Whether the attack directly targeted the data centre remains unconfirmed. Nevertheless, as of 8 October, this went on record as the first drone strike directed at data centres in Russia.
Beginning in the summer months of 2026, warehouses belonging to Russia’s leading e-commerce platforms had faced drone attacks.
Fires at several warehouses owned by the company Wildberries caused hundreds of billions of roubles in losses for sellers, after which logistics centres belonging to the company Ozon were also targeted.
Both companies amended their contractual terms, shifting liability for damages arising from attacks onto sellers.
Yandex facilities had previously experienced a widespread outage on 30 March 2025 due to a transformer failure, which temporarily disabled services including Yandex Cloud, Yandex Music, and Yandex Lavka.
Senior officials from Russia and the US have reportedly discussed involving an American investor in the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines.
According to a report by the Reuters news agency based on five sources, those taking part in contacts included Kirill Dmitriyev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and the Russian president’s special representative for investment and economic cooperation with foreign states, and Jared Kushner, son-in-law of the US leader.
Two sources providing information on the scope of the discussions said that while it remains unclear how detailed the consideration of the Nord Stream topic was, the matter nevertheless remains on the agenda.
Kushner reportedly views business-oriented cooperation as an instrument in initiatives aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
A potential agreement could reportedly offer US investors an opportunity to profit from energy shipments to Europe once the war ends.
White House states no recent contacts have taken place
A White House official told Reuters that no negotiations regarding Nord Stream have been conducted recently.
The official emphasised that any agreement with Russia would require approval from the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the US Department of the Treasury, adding that such steps must yield benefits for US taxpayers and companies.
Another US official described reaching an understanding in the medium term as unlikely due to existing obstacles.
The natural gas pipelines are subject to US and European Union sanctions. A spokesperson for the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy stated that the approval of the German federal government is mandatory for the pipelines to be brought back into service, adding that the Berlin administration does not support such a step.
The spokesperson also recalled that Germany has secured alternative supplies to Russian gas.
The ownership structure of Nord Stream also features among the issues complicating the ground for negotiations.
In the consortium operating the project, Russian energy giant Gazprom holds a 51% stake, while the combined share of two German partners stands at 31%.
The remaining shares are held by France- and Netherlands-based companies.
A source speaking to the agency stated that the German partners wish to retain their stakes in order to preserve their influence in the project should Gazprom’s shares be sold.
What had American investor Lynch proposed?
The concept of involving a US financier in the Nord Stream projects had also surfaced in 2024.
American investor Stephen Lynch, founder of Monte Valle Partners, who conducted commercial activities in Russia for 20 years, had applied to the US administration for a licence allowing him to bid if the Nord Stream 2 pipeline were put up for auction.
Lynch described this potential move as an opportunity to keep Europe’s energy supply under control until the fossil-fuel era ends, as well as leverage against Russia in peace negotiations.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party described the possibility of transferring the pipeline to Lynch as an illustration of the German government’s irrational policy.
Separately, The New York Times (NYT) reported earlier this month that Ukraine-related contacts between Russia and the US were expanding to include a multi-billion-dollar oil deal covering Lukoil’s foreign assets.
The assets in question included Lukoil’s refineries in Eastern Europe as well as filling stations in the US.
NYT sources reported that discussions in this framework were also addressed during a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Steven Witkoff, and Kushner.
The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines took place in September 2022, with three of the four lines damaged by explosions.
One string of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which had not yet been commissioned at the time, remained intact.
The Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation (FSB) classified the incident as an act of international terrorism, while Putin claimed that “Anglo-Saxons” were behind the attack.
In investigations into the incident, judicial proceedings were pursued against several Ukrainian citizens, including professional diver Vladimir Juravlyov, suspected of planting explosives off the island of Bornholm, and Sergey Kuznetsov, who allegedly skippered the yacht Andromeda.
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