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A year that shook the global system

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It has been a year since February 24th. The long history of the Russian-Ukrainian tensions has been marked by a year of hot conflict. While the parties did not give up on their strategic goals, the door of a long period of uncertainty was opened in which the global system skidded and shook.

On February 24, 2022, Russian leader Vladimir Putin announced the launch of a “special operation” and led the Russian army into Ukraine. Thus, the long-standing Russia-Ukraine tensions, in other words, the mistrust between the West and Russia, has moved to another level.

The security mechanisms established with Europe and NATO after the Cold War and the Minsk I and Minsk II agreements, which are the address of the search for a solution to the crisis in Ukraine, have lost their historical meaning. It remains unclear how this new page will be closed and how the European security order will take shape in the aftermath of this war.

“This is a European war,” said Prof. Dr. Vişne Korkmaz, “There are vehicles of various sizes on this military and political battlefield. We are on a crowded floor. We are not in the same situation as we were in 1945.”

“The fight started on a crowded field,” Korkmaz said, noting that arm wrestling over the global system could continue for a long time in line with the parties’ own agendas.

What was Russia’s goal?

The Russo-Ukrainian war, or “special military operation” as Moscow calls it, began as a result of a failure to meet the security guarantees demanded by Russia from the United States and NATO, and in total from the Atlantic world. The Western system, led by the United States, responded to Moscow’s intensified insistence in the last quarter of 2021 on “security guarantees”, the story of which dates back to the end of the Cold War, by further arming Ukraine.

For decision-makers in the Kremlin, this meant ignoring Russia as a great power. Dialogue mechanisms and protocols aimed at softening the conflicts and finding a solution were now “a diversionary tactic used by the West to further arm Ukraine” for Moscow.

Nisantasi University Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Vişne Korkmaz sees the historic decision on February 24th as a “mistake” for Moscow and adds “this conflict is also about shaping European security.”

Evaluating the one-year war process to Harici, Korkmaz said, “Russia had two goals. Converting the post-Cold War European Security architecture to a point where it would be more advantageous. They failed to accomplish this without war. The West did not give Russia what it wanted in this sense. Russia became a party to the conventional European war. Secondly, we were aware of the conventional power of Russia. Russia was a great power, but not quite. Russia wanted to become a great power. Status is a position granted by the parties to you. Russia could not come close to achieving these two goals, but I do not see a war that Russia has lost yet. The facts of the field do not show a complete loss.”

How to disrupt the pat situation on the field?

“We are not evaluating the fronts of a war that ended like the Second World War. We are currently following an open conflict between two asymmetrical forces: this is a European war!” Korkmaz emphasized the lively, dynamic and variable aspect of the process.

Korkmaz assessed that the reality on the field could change if Ukraine sweeps the Russian forces from its territory or if Russia changes its strategic objectives, and said that she does not see such a possibility for the time being.

“It is a strange war, a war that can be continued. It will probably take longer. There are unknowns,” Korkmaz said, adding that both Russia and the West have made miscalculations.

“There is a deadlock for Russia that it has not given up on. I do not think it will revise its strategic goals. It has not even revised its tactical goals. It has not given up on its demands regarding the security future of the EU,” Korkmaz summarized Moscow’s current situation and added “The West also made a mistake, thinking that Russia could be isolated very easily. Russia has to continue in a way that brings it closer to its strategic goals. Moscow could not be pushed out of the system globally. It is not easy to keep a great power out of the system.”

What is the situation on the Western Front?

Referring to the “different voices” that emerge from time to time in the West, Korkmaz said, “Everyone has a different purpose. Each purpose has its own unique schedule. We are talking about a long struggle with different stages.”

Stating that it was a “struggle over the global system unlike the Cold War”, Korkmaz said, “Europe was caught unprepared and followed the US. It could not create its own stance and means.”

For the state of Europe, Korkmaz noted, “There seems to be only one West. Different voices have died out. Europe had to adapt itself to the NATO and EU agenda because it was not prepared. That is why Europe did not speak out.”

Where and how will the war end?

While the Istanbul process and the People’s Republic of China’s 12-point plan stand out as concrete efforts to resolve the crisis, there has yet to be a strong will to bring the parties to the negotiating table. The West is currently busy arming Ukraine, and Russia is reportedly preparing for a frontal offensive.

“I do not think Russia will test ‘NATO’ deterrence. There is a real risk that the war will spread to areas outside the NATO umbrella, such as Moldova,” Korkmaz said.

According to Prof. Dr. Korkmaz the United States has begun to move more towards the Asian front regarding its global goals. At this point, “The United States has been targeting China in particular recently. The message given through Ukraine is directed at China. The United States have more time for China,” she said and commented “The West has succeeded in limiting Russia to the Ukraine war.”

Korkmaz thinks that “the peace plans do not offer much either,” adding, “We are still in a deep stalemate. Russia has not lost totally.” Stating that although the “Ukrainian resistance” has been successful so far, Kiev is also far from winning, Korkmaz argued that a long-term struggle is a reality.

For now, it seems impossible to predict where the gods of war will stop. What is certain is that the world has become too large to fit into its old mold and seems ready to establish a new security framework. It is necessary to see that peace can only be established around new concepts and with a new understanding.

A quote by the famous Italian Marxist Antonio Gramcsi summarizes the situation: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters.”

RUSSIA

Russian deputy defence minister Ivanov arrested on bribery charges

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The Russian Investigative Committee has reported that Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov has been detained on suspicion of taking bribes.

“Russian Deputy Defence Minister Timur Vladimirovich Ivanov has been detained on suspicion of committing a crime under Article 290, paragraph 6 (bribery) of the Russian Criminal Code,” the committee said in a written statement.

Committee spokeswoman Svetlana Petrenko said the necessary investigation into the incident was under way.

A law enforcement source told the Interfax agency that Ivanov would soon be referred to court for arrest.

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: ‘Russian President Vladimir Putin has been informed that Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov has been detained. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu was also informed earlier,” Peskov said.

The relevant article of the Criminal Code contains a charge of ‘large-scale bribery’. The charge covers bribery offences involving more than 1 million roubles.

Such offences carry a maximum prison sentence of 15 years or a fine of up to seventy times the amount of the bribe.

According to the Defence Ministry’s website, Ivanov, 49, graduated from Lomonosov Moscow State University in 1997.

Between 1999 and 2012, he worked in the country’s fuel and energy companies and then in the government of the Moscow region.

In May 2016, he was appointed deputy defence minister of Russia by presidential decree.

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RUSSIA

One of the Crocus attackers was trained by ISIS militants in Turkey, Sputnik reports

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Shamsidin Feriduni, one of the perpetrators of the attack on the Crocus City Hall concert hall in Moscow, was linked to Tajik extremist organisations in Turkey, the Tajikistan service of Russian state broadcaster Sputnik reported.

According to the agency’s source, Feriduni trained in Istanbul to carry out the attack, which killed more than a hundred people.

The source said that Feriduni travelled to Istanbul earlier this year and then “began to show signs of extremism in conversations with family and friends”.

According to the source, during this trip he was trained by “mentors” who had fought for ISIS in Afghanistan and Syria.

On the other hand, the source noted that recent operations against ISIS suspects in Turkey were organised thanks to information provided by Feriduni during interrogations.

The Turkish Interior Ministry reported on 31 March that 51 suspects had been detained in operations carried out over four days in 21 provinces.

According to the source, Shamsidin Feriduni was sentenced to six years in prison for sexually assaulting a 12-year-old girl when he was 16.

After his release in 2020, Feriduni travelled to Moscow, worked as a porter and construction worker, and returned to Tajikistan two years ago.

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ASIA

IS-K Moscow attack gives another turn to global strategic battling

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The recent Islamic States Khurasan IS-K firing against occupants of a concert hall in Moscow, the capital city of Russia, has not only jolted the world but it is now giving new turns and directions to global strategic battling which is still controlled by two traditional rival US and Russian Federation (successor of USSR). Whatever may be directions and targets of follow up of Moscow firing incidents but its epicenter wouldn’t be other than border regions between former British India and Afghanistan, dominated by Pushtoons.

No one can deny the fact that worriers Pushtoons are no more independent as they have been made slaves and hostages by spy masters of US led allies through Saudi Arab and Pakistan on the sacred name of Islam and Jihad. The Islamic States (IS) also called Daesh is the latest virgin of Mujahideen, sponsored, trained, financed and encouraged by US led allies against former Soviet Union. The IS came into being at the time when at last moment of first decade of millennium, US lead allies made fed up by continuous resistance by Taliban in war devastated Afghanistan.

At early stages, the IS focused almost its attentions and strategies against Shia Iran whereas it was engaged in efforts for the survival of Syrian government. Despite wholehearted support of US led allies especially Saudi led Arab world, the IS had failed in Syrian war. IS militants after its failure, returned to war devastated Afghanistan at the time when Pakistan also pulled al-Qaeda remains out of tribal regions with commencing of military operation Zarb-i-Azab on June 15, 2014 last. Making Afghanistan as its base camp like of al-Qaeda, the IS had made hells lives of all those progressive, nationalists, democrats and moderate Pushtoon elders who are known for opposition to extremism and terrorism. At this stage, the IS constituted 40-member council (Shura) for making its decisions and strategies. Majority of 40-member council were those who remain on important offices in banned Tehrik Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Still the IS is commanded by Pakistani origin Taliban who are in cordial and friendly links with Taliban (Emirate Islami Afghanistan) governing Afghanistan. The Emirate Islami has already declared Afghanistan as a free and safe place for likeminded militants from all over the world.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin lights a candle during his visit to a church of the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow on March 24, 2024, during a national day of mourning following the attack in the Crocus City Hall, POOL / AFP.

IS-K and the regional countries

It doesn’t mean that with killing of Osama Bin Laden and Aiman Al Zawahiri, al-Qaeda lost its existence or its contacts with other hardliners, operating/active on soil of Afghanistan since the so-called cold war. Taliban regime in Afghanistan like of late 90’s, once again give another life to almost alleged terrorists groups especially Arabs and Central Asians. Similarly like of past, the US still maintaining dual standards on the issue of Muslim extremism. Through one or the other ways, the US spy masters are still in command of influencing Taliban (both Afghani and Pakistani), al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups from different countries through its experienced and tested allies like Pakistan and Saudis like Afghan Mujahideen. In 2019, the US helped Afghan in joint combating against IS in Afghanistan’s eastern zone bordering with Pakistan. Over three thousand IS militants, mostly Pakistanis have been arrested during the crackdown but the Emirate Islami accredited itself for their release after returning into power on August 15th 2021 last.

The CAR militants like Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Ittehad Islami Jihad (Youghour), militants associated with East Turkistan Islamic Movement and others having a major space in IS. All these groups remained in good terms. Like Pakistani militants associated with both Pakistani and Afghan Taliban, a large number of CAR militants already slipped to IS. There are also reports of Afghan Taliban and Mujahideen’s joining of IS. Some of these Afghan Taliban disheartened when they were neglected in appointment against choice political, civil and military offices. Whereas someone fell victims of perks and power.

Russia doubts IS did Moscow attack

It comes as another uncertainty when Russia on Monday apparently doubt on assertions by the US that the Islamic State (ISIS) extremist group was responsible for the attack on a concert hall that killed 137 people and wounded 182 more.

The Friday night attack marked as the deadliest inside Russia in the two decades as four IS militants stormed into the Crocus City Hall and immediately want on rampage and brought everyone under fire.

IS-K claimed responsibility for the attack, but Russian officials yet to conform it was the work of Daesh rather they said that these four terrorist were arrested while trying to escape to Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin has not publicly mentioned IS-K in connection with the attackers, who said that some people on “the Ukrainian side” had been prepared to spirit the gunmen across the border.

However, Ukraine had denied any role in the attack, but Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova said the US was spreading a version of the “bogeyman” of IS-K to cover its “wards” in Kyiv and reminded readers that Washington supported the “mujahideen” fighters who fought Soviet forces in the 1980s.

A man suspected of taking part in the attack of a concert hall that killed 137 people, sits in the defendant cage as he waits for his pre-trial detention hearing at the Basmanny District Court.

Afghanistan claims of stern action against IS  

Though apparently, the Emirate Islami Afghanistan is making claims of stern action against the IS militants but it seems hard as  it (Emirate) didn’t wants to harm all those who either played a role either in Afghan war against former USSR or War on terror, declared by US against al-Qaeda lead militants after 9/11. Taliban regime time and again making claims of strengthening its intelligence network again IS but all these foreign groups and individuals have already established better understanding with Afghan Taliban, majority of whom are now in occupation of important offices.

Despite its fueling politico-economic and security issues, Pakistan is still in a bid to get superiority in the region. US and China’s are compelled to have relations with Pakistan. Economically and politically, Pakistan seems in loss in race against India. India is considered biggest consumer market in Asia; therefore, China didn’t afford Pakistan-China hostilities. The new government of Shehbaz Sharif is making its best to have cordial relations between New Delhi and Islamabad but Pakistan’s powerful military establishment is thinking on other lines. Russian Federation President Putin has declared Emergency and War like situation, by saying that NATO troops are in Ukraine. In such a circumstance it could be hard for Pakistan to stay away from another round of Soviet-US tussles. There are apprehensions that like of so-called cold war, Afghanistan, especially Pushtoons dominated areas on both sides of Pak-Afghan border would again be front line in the new battle, commencing through IS.

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