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Diplomacy

China’s diplomatic influence in the Middle East at risk

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Beijing’s brokering of a historic peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia last year marked a significant shift in China’s engagement with the Middle East. The agreement was seen as a landmark achievement, positioning China as a mediator in one of the world’s most volatile regions.

For Tehran, facing economic and geopolitical pressure from the Biden administration, the deal was a diplomatic breakthrough. It also offered a chance to reduce isolation with Beijing’s support.

However, the recent overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the setbacks faced by Hamas and Hezbollah in their conflict with Israel have fragmented Iran’s regional influence. These developments, coupled with growing threats from Israel, pose significant challenges to Tehran’s strategic position.

Experts suggest that the return of a hawkish U.S. administration under Donald Trump could strengthen the China-Iran alliance. Shared pressures may push both nations toward closer cooperation, reshaping the region’s diplomatic dynamics.

Chinese analysts caution, however, that Beijing’s ability to sustain its mediation role may be at risk. Rising tensions between Tehran and other regional powers could jeopardize the peace China’s diplomacy has fostered. Such conflicts would not only test Beijing’s influence but also challenge its long-term strategic interests in the Middle East.

Fan Hongda, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai University of International Studies, notes that U.S. pressure on Iran is unlikely to wane. “Coupled with Israel’s strikes and the destruction of Iranian-backed forces such as Hamas and Hezbollah last year, this will compel Iran to favor closer cooperation with other powers, including China and Russia,” Fan remarked.

Iran’s economic woes date back to the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the imposition of stricter sanctions under the “maximum pressure” campaign. These sanctions continue to hinder Tehran’s economy, influencing its strategic partnerships and regional policies.

Diplomacy

Juan Carrero condemns global indifference to tragedies in Gaza and Congo

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In a speech at the International Peace Coalition meeting organized by the Schiller Institute, Juan Carrero, President of the s’Olivar Foundation in Spain, stated that the world has become “morally dead” by ignoring major tragedies in Gaza, Syria, and Africa. He argued that this moral decay fuels the madness of war.

Carrero noted that resisting countries like Iran possess something far more powerful than nuclear weapons, saying, “This is honor.”

Describing the analyses at the meeting as “sensible, courageous, and enlightening,” Carrero highlighted the Schiller Institute’s consistent emphasis on the importance of morality alongside its geostrategic analyses.

‘Moral death is worse’

Carrero stated that moral corruption has always been at the root of the destructive collapse of empires and all war frenzies in history. “Those pursuing a delusional expansionist project aim to bring about regime change in Iran. This is the last of the seven regime changes they have planned. They claim to be very concerned about Iran obtaining a nuclear bomb,” he said.

Carrero emphasized that Iran and many other countries resisting the latest follies of the collapsing Anglo-Western empire possess something far more powerful than nuclear weapons, reiterating, “This is honor.” He added that Iran does not see the assassination of its generals or nuclear scientists in their homes with their families as a failure. He continued:

“Each of them is a martyr whose blood will give life to their people. On this matter, both heroic military leaders and political activists agree with the advocates of the non-violence movement. There is something much worse than physical death, and that is moral death.”

‘The world is morally dead’

Carrero asserted that a world that ignores the tragedies in Gaza, Syria, or Africa because they are not thought to directly trigger a nuclear catastrophe is a “worthless and morally dead” world.

“The same applies to a world that does not care about Africa because the conflicts there are not waged with weapons of mass destruction or weapons that could destroy our Anglo-Western way of life,” Carrero assessed.

In his speech, Carrero pointed to a series of “follies” that should not be tolerated, including the “Greater Israel project,” the “desire for Russia’s collapse,” and the quest by “the genocidal Paul Kagame to annex the vast eastern territories of the Democratic Republic of Congo.”

Specifically addressing the situation in Congo, Carrero noted that the country has 7 million refugees, millions of victims, and hundreds of thousands of cases of rape. He stated that heroic leaders like Victor Ingabir, who could end this madness, are systematically killed or imprisoned.

“Despite the African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights ruling in his favor, Paul Kagame has abducted him once again, and no one can reach him,” Carrero said.

Carrero concluded his speech by presenting a video message from the 1980 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Adolfo Perez Esquivel, which included a call to “disarm the armed consciences and stop the wars and lies.”

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Iran must reverse religious fatwa to develop nuclear weapons, says McGovern

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Former US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst Ray McGovern stated that his country, the United States, is enabling the ongoing genocide in Gaza. “The genocide is happening as we speak. This genocide is happening thanks to my country and others who could pick up the phone and stop it,” he said.

McGovern called on everyone not just to analyze the situation but to take concrete action.

Speaking at an International Peace Coalition meeting organized by the Schiller Institute, McGovern described the US halting arms shipments to Ukraine as a “long-overdue development.”

Criticizing the idea that European leaders could fill the void left by the US, McGovern described the coalition formed by figures like French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as “brain-dead.”

The Noah principle: Reward those who build arks

Focusing on the situation in Gaza, McGovern invited participants to commit to silence and action.

Referring to what he called the “Noah Principle,” McGovern stated, “No more rewards for predicting rain; the rewards are only for those who build arks. When we leave this meeting, let’s all start building our own little arks. It is a moral imperative to do what we can to stop the genocide.”

‘Europe has brain-dead leaders’

McGovern noted that one of the most significant developments of the past week was the hour-long phone call between former US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

He also considered the US decision to stop sending weapons to Ukraine a major development, directing sharp criticism toward European leaders.

Stating that he does not trust French President Macron, McGovern said, “Considering how his predecessors betrayed the Minsk Agreements, Macron has no credibility with Putin.”

McGovern likened European leaders Merz, Macron, and Starmer to a “litigious law firm,” remarking, “They are ambulance chasers. This coalition, in my view, is a brain-dead coalition. They will no longer have a role because they have neither the weapons nor the money. It is both immoral and foolish for them to give Ukraine the idea that they can replace the US.”

‘Germany is now Russia’s main enemy’

McGovern explained that a significant shift has occurred in Russian public opinion, with Germany replacing the US as Russia’s “main enemy” (Glavny Vrag).

He attributed this change to Germany, under Chancellor Scholz’s leadership, agreeing to the deployment of US medium-range, nuclear-capable ballistic missiles on German soil. McGovern also used the term “brain-dead” to describe Scholz.

‘Iran must change its fatwa for nuclear weapons’

Addressing the topic of Iran, McGovern mentioned that after Tehran expelled International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors from the country, oversight of its nuclear program has been limited to satellites.

He said this situation invalidates the long-standing US intelligence assessment that “Iran is not working on a nuclear weapon.”

McGovern highlighted the importance of the Iranian supreme leader’s fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons. “I asked my Iranian friends if a fatwa is like an encyclical in the Catholic tradition. They laughed and said, ‘McGovern, you’re crazy.’ No, a fatwa is a fatwa. It binds all Iranians,” he explained.

According to McGovern, if Iran were to decide to build nuclear weapons, the supreme leader would have to publicly reverse this fatwa, a step that has not yet been taken.

‘A tectonic power shift has occurred’

At the end of his speech, McGovern noted that a “tectonic shift” has occurred in the global balance of power, with Russia and China cooperating in an unprecedented way, creating a “two-against-one” situation.

“I hope US decision-makers understand they can no longer play Russia against China or vice versa. They need a little common sense,” he concluded.

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Diplomacy

Armenia signals potential complete withdrawal from CSTO

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Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan announced that Yerevan might decide to withdraw entirely from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) if member states fail to “demonstrate a clear political stance” regarding Azerbaijan’s actions. Kostanyan emphasized that Armenia is no longer making insinuations but is speaking very openly.

According to the Novosti-Armenia news agency, Kostanyan stated, “Ultimately, if our partners in the CSTO, including the Russian Federation, do not make the political statements that were mentioned several years ago after the aggression against the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, then Armenia will make a final decision.”

The Deputy Minister also underscored that Armenia, as a sovereign state, will determine the right time for its next steps.

Membership was frozen

Relations between Armenia, Russia, and the CSTO deteriorated following the conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, after which Yerevan formally requested support from its allies.

Following this process, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan repeatedly criticized the CSTO for not assisting Yerevan.

Pashinyan described the organization as a “bubble alliance,” claiming it was “planning a war” against Armenia alongside Baku.

Last February, Prime Minister Pashinyan announced that Armenia had frozen its participation in the CSTO. By May, the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that the country would refuse to finance the organization’s activities.

Intelligence report points in the same direction

In January of this year, a public report released by the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service stated that the country has no intention of returning to full participation in the CSTO in the near future.

The report noted, “We find it highly unlikely that the reasons that led to Armenia suspending its membership will change in 2025. Based on this situation, the organization’s prestige continues to be seriously questioned and has become a ’cause for reflection’ for other member countries.”

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