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China’s diplomatic influence in the Middle East at risk

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Beijing’s brokering of a historic peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia last year marked a significant shift in China’s engagement with the Middle East. The agreement was seen as a landmark achievement, positioning China as a mediator in one of the world’s most volatile regions.

For Tehran, facing economic and geopolitical pressure from the Biden administration, the deal was a diplomatic breakthrough. It also offered a chance to reduce isolation with Beijing’s support.

However, the recent overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the setbacks faced by Hamas and Hezbollah in their conflict with Israel have fragmented Iran’s regional influence. These developments, coupled with growing threats from Israel, pose significant challenges to Tehran’s strategic position.

Experts suggest that the return of a hawkish U.S. administration under Donald Trump could strengthen the China-Iran alliance. Shared pressures may push both nations toward closer cooperation, reshaping the region’s diplomatic dynamics.

Chinese analysts caution, however, that Beijing’s ability to sustain its mediation role may be at risk. Rising tensions between Tehran and other regional powers could jeopardize the peace China’s diplomacy has fostered. Such conflicts would not only test Beijing’s influence but also challenge its long-term strategic interests in the Middle East.

Fan Hongda, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai University of International Studies, notes that U.S. pressure on Iran is unlikely to wane. “Coupled with Israel’s strikes and the destruction of Iranian-backed forces such as Hamas and Hezbollah last year, this will compel Iran to favor closer cooperation with other powers, including China and Russia,” Fan remarked.

Iran’s economic woes date back to the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the imposition of stricter sanctions under the “maximum pressure” campaign. These sanctions continue to hinder Tehran’s economy, influencing its strategic partnerships and regional policies.

DIPLOMACY

US proposes Black Sea truce to Russia in Saudi Arabia talks

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The US proposed a truce in the Black Sea to Russia during discussions held in Saudi Arabia. White House National Security Advisor Mike Waltz stated that this step aims to re-establish safe navigation in the Black Sea and could pave the way for a broader peace agreement. The talks also addressed Ukraine’s successes against the Russian navy and Russia’s attacks on energy facilities.

Talks between Russian and US delegations began today in Saudi Arabia, which Washington views as a step toward a more comprehensive peace agreement.

Following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s agreement last week to refrain from attacks on energy facilities for 30 days, the US side hopes to reach an agreement on establishing a truce in the Black Sea.

In a statement to CBS television yesterday, White House National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said that the main topic of the talks, to be held a day after the meeting between Ukrainian and American delegations, would be the declaration of a truce in the Black Sea to re-establish safe navigation.

Waltz suggested that this would lead to a discussion about the “line of control, which is the de facto front line.”

Waltz noted that “technical teams” would conduct Monday’s talks.

According to a source familiar with the preparation process, as reported by Reuters, the US delegation will include Andrew Peak, Senior Director of the National Security Council, and Michael Anton, a senior official from the State Department.

The Russian side is represented by Grigory Karasin, a former diplomat who currently chairs the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, and the Head of the Operational Information and International Relations Department of the Federal Security Service (FSB).

Last week, following a phone call between Donald Trump and Putin, Putin agreed to support a 30-day halt to attacks on energy facilities, which the US and Ukraine had previously agreed upon.

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Market turbulence continues after arrest of Istanbul mayor

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The uncertainty remains whether the turbulence that began in the markets following the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu will continue.

According to Bloomberg, the costs of borrowing Turkish lira in the offshore market and insuring the country’s debt against default are hovering near the levels they set last week, a sign that traders remain nervous after a turbulent period for the market.

The offshore rate was at 187% as of 8:18 AM in Istanbul, close to its highest level since June 2023. Turkey’s five-year credit default swap stood at 327 basis points, little changed from Friday’s level, reaching a one-year high.

These movements indicate that investors are preparing for more volatility in Turkish assets on Monday, according to Bloomberg.

The lira weakened by 0.1%, trading at 38.0086 per dollar at 8:21 AM in Istanbul, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

İmamoğlu’s detention last week caused panic in the markets, leading to a fall in the Turkish lira and the stock market, and a rise in bond yields.

The country’s leading economic and financial institutions quickly began working to limit this impact.

According to Bloomberg‘s report, citing people familiar with the matter, the Central Bank held a meeting with bank executives on Sunday to discuss potential market fluctuations and steps to be taken. The Banks Association later said that monetary authorities and lenders had held a “technical meeting.”

According to BloombergHT, citing unnamed sources, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek also held a meeting with regulatory agencies on measures to be taken against market turbulence.

Turkey’s market regulator, the Capital Markets Board (CMB), also announced a wide range of measures on Sunday night to boost the market. These steps included a ban on short selling, looser conditions for share buybacks, and a reduction in the minimum equity protection requirement for margin trading.

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Pashinyan announces 2027 referendum for Armenia’s new constitution

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In an interview on state television, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced plans to hold a referendum in 2027 to adopt a new constitution for the country.

According to News.am, Pashinyan stated, “We will proceed with the adoption of a new constitution. We are planning to hold a referendum in 2027.”

Last September, Pashinyan indicated Armenia’s readiness to amend the constitution to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan.

He noted that this could occur if the Armenian Constitutional Court ruled that the document was inconsistent with the country’s constitution, in which case the constitution would need to be amended.

The changes to the Armenian constitution, aimed at achieving peace with Azerbaijan, may stem from the constitution’s preamble.

The preamble refers to the decision on the reunification of Soviet Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, referencing the 1990 Declaration of Independence of Armenia regarding the right of nations to self-determination.

Since September 2023, this region has been under Baku’s control following a military operation, and ethnic Armenians, who constituted the majority of the region’s inhabitants, have left Karabakh.

In the interview, Pashinyan also addressed the issue of a resolution with Baku. According to Pashinyan, there is currently an acceptable version of an agreement for both parties.

Azerbaijan and Armenia have recognized each other’s territorial integrity within the borders of the Soviet republics. The Prime Minister stated that he is ready to sign this document.

The agreement will be made public once signed.

Pashinyan said, “The harmonized text of the peace agreement does not contain unilateral obligations for either Azerbaijan or us.”

Pashinyan mentioned that the peace agreement between Baku and Yerevan consists of 17 articles in total.

The agreement includes the recognition of the countries’ sovereignty, as well as the determination and demarcation of borders (a process that began approximately a year ago), the establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations, the abandonment of the deployment of third-country forces along the border, and the mutual withdrawal of lawsuits from international courts.

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