Europe
Former Merkel advisor Erich Vad likens Ukraine conflict to Verdun, warns of European war risk
Retired Brigadier General Erich Vad, a prominent military and strategic analyst in the Federal Republic of Germany and former military policy advisor to former Chancellor Angela Merkel, has delivered a stark assessment of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.
In an extensive interview with the Berliner Zeitung newspaper, marked by the publication of his book Peace – How Does It Work? (Frieden – Wie geht das?), co-authored with Klaus von Dohnanyi, Vad highlighted the futility of current military strategies and criticized the international community for completely shutting down diplomatic channels.
Vad, who is also a historian and served as a department head within the Federal Chancellery, secretary of the Federal Security Council, and military advisor between 2006 and 2013, stated that contemporary geopolitical tensions cannot be resolved through military means alone.
“The current attrition strategy is a blood mill like Verdun”
Likening the current situation on the ground in Ukraine to one of the bloodiest engagements in military history, Vad said:
“A military solution in Ukraine in favor of Ukraine does not appear possible in the near future. The method currently applied is an attrition strategy, where the parties target each other’s rear lines and wait for the opposing side to give up or sit at the negotiating table. This attrition strategy is a virtual blood mill, akin to the 1916 Battle of Verdun. Hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainians and Russians have lost their lives, and an entire country has been reduced to ruins.”
Noting that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s maximalist demands, which envision a total Russian withdrawal from the Donbas and Crimea, are unrealistic, Vad remarked: “To assume that the Russians will withdraw from these regions and make peace is an illusion. This situation is completely contrary to Russia’s vital strategic interests in the region. Because the parties cannot step back from these positions, the weapons continue to speak. However, the risk of this war evolving into an all-out European war is extremely high, and if things continue in this manner, I have the impression that the trajectory is in that direction.”
Addressing the limits of military solutions, Vad noted that a similar picture applies not only to Ukraine but also to other crisis regions, such as Iran.
He stated that aerial campaigns against Iran cannot bring about regime change, while a ground intervention to control a coastline exceeding 1,500 kilometers and the Strait of Hormuz would require a military cost that even the US military would not undertake today.
“Ukraine’s NATO goal was a red line for Russia”
Evaluating NATO’s eastward expansion process, Vad stated that this move was perceived by Russia as an attempt to shift the boundaries of Western spheres of influence eastward.
Recalling that the demands of Poland and the Baltic states to exit Russian hegemony were initially understandable, and that this process was balanced through diplomatic mechanisms such as the NATO-Russia Founding Act and the NATO-Russia Council, the former military advisor emphasized that the West later abandoned this balanced path.
In his interview, Vad shared the following analysis:
“The West subsequently deviated from this balanced line, and the process completely turned into the eastward expansion of the American sphere of influence. Yet, the Americans would never tolerate a similar situation in their own sphere of influence. If Mexico were to attempt joint military exercises with Russia and China on the Rio Grande border tomorrow, the Americans would calmly invade the country. Russia is a global power and the world’s largest nuclear power. One must neither underestimate nor overestimate the resilience of the Russians. The same applies to China. If the Americans had attempted to establish an airbase in Taiwan, World War III would have broken out the next day. The biggest problem in Germany is that the effort to understand the Russian perspective has completely vanished. Trying to understand them does not mean approving of what they do; it is simply a requirement of situational analysis.”
Relating the debates surrounding the membership perspective offered to Ukraine at the 2008 Bucharest NATO Summit, where he was personally present in Chancellor Merkel’s delegation, Vad noted:
“The general assessment at the time was that Ukrainian public opinion was deeply divided on NATO membership, and the majority actually opposed it. William Burns, then the US Ambassador to Moscow, had clearly reported that this step was a dark red line for Russia and would lead to war. Everyone who knew the subject was aware of the situation. Therefore, the decision not to grant Ukraine a Membership Action Plan at that time was correct. However, the major error was keeping this membership goal suspended rather than canceling it entirely. Pre-Trump US administrations tried every avenue to draw Ukraine in this direction, including extensive weapons deliveries, military advisors, intelligence activities, and massive financial support for pro-Western non-governmental organizations. This process culminated in the Maidan protests. The entry of NATO membership into the Ukrainian constitution in 2019 was the final straw for Russia.”
Arguing that the US strategy of global competition played a role in the development of this process, Vad stated: “Ukraine is legitimately defending its sovereignty, and the Russian attack is undoubtedly a violation of international law. However, when we look at how global powers generally utilize international law, this situation unfortunately does not constitute an exceptional case. The US prepared the ground for this war within the framework of its competition with Russia; this is why I have called it a proxy war from the very beginning.”
“We are silent against a terrorist attack on our own infrastructure”
Criticizing Germany’s current security and foreign policy decisions, Vad stated that Berlin has lost its strategic autonomy and remains inadequate in protecting its national interests.
The retired general remarked that the federal government has returned to its reflex of entirely devolving responsibility for security policies to Washington, recalling that past German chancellors always sought to balance defense investments with arms control and détente diplomacy.
Touching upon the attack on Germany’s critical energy infrastructure, Vad made the following assessment:
“Germany is currently the largest supporter of Ukraine. However, at the same time, according to existing data, it has also received the largest state-sponsored terrorist attack on its own national infrastructure from Ukraine. The deep silence exhibited by German politics and the media in the face of the sabotage blowing up the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline is highly thought-provoking and disturbing. A potential European war occurring on our own territory cannot be a rational option for Germany. Therefore, I expect German politicians to pursue a policy more focused on national interests. Current politics have become completely focused on Ukraine, and this is a major error.”
Vad asserted that the domestic political weaknesses of governments in European countries fuel aggressive postures in foreign policy. He cited the political weakening of French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s low public support, and the domestic political pressures on the coalition government in Germany as causes of this situation.
According to Vad, keeping the perception of external threats alive provides a convenient ground to cover up domestic political failures and justify large-budget defense spending.
“Social hatred is manufactured to sustain the war”
Referencing the “trinity” concept used by military theorist Carl von Clausewitz when defining war, Erich Vad explained that wars are sustained not only by military decisions but also through the management of collective social psychology.
Emphasizing the importance of the relationship between politics, the military-industrial complex, and society, Vad criticized the role assumed by the media and political elites during wartime:
“Wars must always be fed emotionally; war requires hatred. Today, we are witnessing an intense information war conducted in both the West and Russia. In this mutually executed process, the enemy is demonized, criminalized, and morally devalued. Without this hatred taking root in the minds of people, it is not possible for societies to support a prolonged war, tolerate losses, and risk killing other human beings. Politics thinking solely in military categories and completely excluding diplomacy is dragging our country toward a major catastrophe. This concept of total military support, which could lead to the destruction of our own country, is a manifestation of the detached, black-and-white German approach that has led us to disaster in the past.”
Warning of future risks, the retired Brigadier General stated that long-range unmanned aerial vehicles and missile systems provided to the Ukrainian army, which can strike military targets deep inside Russia, could lead to an uncontrolled escalation.
Recalling that European and German companies are involved in the production processes of the long-range combat drones supplied by the United Kingdom to Ukraine, Vad stated that this “deep strike” strategy could transform the regional conflict into a global war at any moment.
Finally, stating that peace can only be built by talking to the enemy, Vad cited the negotiations that former Israeli officials Moshe Dayan and Yitzhak Rabin conducted in the past with Palestine Liberation Organization leader Yasser Arafat.
Arguing that there are no political leaders in Europe today capable of showing this level of courage, Vad concluded: “If we continue in this way, we will one day find ourselves in a direct war with Russia behind Ukraine. Germany urgently needs to undergo a radical foreign policy shift and combine military aid with constructive diplomatic mediation initiatives.”
Europe
Ukraine uses British drones for long-range strikes deep inside Russia
Ukraine has for the first time used unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) manufactured by two British companies in strikes against targets deep inside Russian Federation territory.
According to a report by The Times newspaper, which cited sources within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the attacks in question were carried out over the past six months.
The newspaper claimed that facilities in the cities of Volgograd and Yaroslavl were among the targets hit.
According to details reported in the story, a heavy British T-150 drone manufactured by Malloy Aeronautics was used in the Kherson region in April.
In long-range attacks, the jet-powered Nyan drone, developed by BAE Systems subsidiary Callen-Lenz, and UAVs produced by an unnamed second British company were deployed.
Military analysts suggested that Russia might launch retaliatory strikes against British manufacturers due to the support provided to Kyiv. However, the newspaper noted that the likelihood of a direct military confrontation with NATO remains low.
Former British Defence Minister Dan Jarvis stated in June that London would deliver at least 150,000 drones, along with 350 anti-aircraft missiles and radar systems, to Kyiv by the end of the year.
The Telegraph newspaper reported that the total value of the drones was calculated at £500 million, with British authorities intending to cover this cost using frozen Russian assets. The UK also provides Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine.
The Moscow administration, which argues that military aid prolongs the conflict, condemns the support given to Kyiv. Russia’s Ambassador to London, Andrey Kelin, stated that the United Kingdom is “more deeply involved” in the conflict in Ukraine than any other NATO member.
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that responses to Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory would be many times stronger.
In April, the Russian Ministry of Defence published a list of production facilities in several Western countries that it claimed were supplying drones and spare parts to Ukraine.
Two factories operating on UK territory were included on the list. In its statement, the ministry noted that the decision by various countries to increase the production and delivery of UAVs to Ukraine “creates the threat of a rapid escalation of the military-political situation across the entire European continent”.
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, described the facility list as Russia’s “list of potential targets”.
In his assessment, Medvedev stated: “When the strikes become reality depends on what happens next. Sleep tight, dear partners.”
Europe
CDU unrest raises doubts over Merz’s future as chancellor
Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz is facing mounting unrest within his Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with party figures reportedly beginning to push for a change in leadership.
According to Der Spiegel, frustration is growing among influential party members who believe Merz has repeatedly failed to capitalize on political opportunities.
One senior party figure quoted by the magazine said: “The ball is sitting on the penalty spot, the opposing goalkeeper is nowhere in sight, yet Merz somehow manages to score an own goal.”
Der Spiegel added: “It appears there is little hope left within the CDU that Merz can climb out of the hole he has dug for himself.”
After speaking with the chancellor’s allies and figures from the CDU leadership circle, the magazine said the interviews painted the picture of a party that has lost confidence in Merz.
“This is unprecedented in post-war German history. When CDU Chancellor Ludwig Erhard was removed by his own party in 1966, the process unfolded slowly and gradually over several months. In Merz’s case, however, it has been possible to watch his authority collapse within just a few days. And the person dragging him down is not his party colleagues, but himself.”
The CDU has already been on edge after trailing the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in opinion polls for months. The situation has now been compounded by what Der Spiegel described as the “Merz fiasco”.
According to the magazine, even within the CDU’s highest leadership circles, almost no one would now bet that the chancellor will remain in office until Christmas.
According to Politico, public criticism of Merz has come primarily from figures who were removed from government during the cabinet reshuffle.
The leadership issue, however, has not yet been raised openly because of the summer recess.
Elections are due in three eastern German states: Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Polling points to a disastrous outcome for the CDU.
One prominent Christian Democrat wrote: “Things I once thought unimaginable are happening. Merz is in a tunnel; he can no longer reach the party. Everything is over.”
The same CDU figure believes Merz will either have to throw in the towel or be forced to resign by 21 September at the latest.
That date refers to the Monday following the twin elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
The collapse in confidence surrounding Merz has followed this chronology. On Saturday, 18 July, parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn resigned.
Just three days earlier, Spahn had announced through the Bild newspaper that he and his husband had welcomed a son born through a surrogate mother in the US.
For Merz, this presented a completely unexpected opportunity. He had never trusted Spahn but had hoped he could keep him under control after becoming chancellor.
In recent months, however, the parliamentary group leader had become one of the coalition’s central figures by taking advantage of what the article describes as Merz’s weak leadership.
Nothing moved without him. Spahn had effectively become the CDU’s second most powerful figure.
The chancellor was unhappy with that situation, but Spahn’s resignation suddenly removed the problem on its own. Merz had already been planning a cabinet reshuffle for the autumn.
The chancellor is also reported to have been dissatisfied with several cabinet members and, according to the article, to have displayed a certain “arrogance” in meetings with subordinates.
For example, during an executive board meeting in Rhineland-Palatinate, a letter became public stating that the CDU parliamentary group in the state legislature had cancelled its meeting with Merz because “the minimum level of mutual trust and respect” no longer existed. According to the article, such an insult had never occurred before.
Participants at last week’s Presidium and Executive Committee meetings all noticed the tense atmosphere.
Some believe the CDU leader has “buried himself deep inside his own tunnel” and “is no longer even aware of how serious his situation has become”.
According to later accounts from the group, Rhineland-Palatinate Minister-President Gordon Schnieder even accused the chancellor of lacking professionalism.
What happens next? According to Der Spiegel, the party leadership is avoiding that question. No scenarios are being discussed, even in small groups.
“They do not want to invite disaster. Especially now, when everyone is looking forward to the summer break. Right now, nobody needs a change of chancellor. But nobody believes Merz still has a future as head of government.”
After the elections in eastern Germany, some argue that Merz should be forced to resign.
According to the report, if three experienced state premiers were to advise the chancellor to step down for the good of both the country and the party, Merz would almost certainly comply, or at least that is what his team believes. Even so, they are not entirely certain.
Following such a resignation, North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wust is expected to step in. He is the only figure mentioned as a potential successor to Merz.
CSU leader Markus Soeder is reportedly considered unacceptable to the CDU, while the idea that CSU Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt could become chancellor is described as absurd. As a result, the task would fall to Wust.
Europe
Germany lays groundwork for civilian alternative as conscription looms
In Germany, the Ministry for Family Affairs has already begun working on the revitalization of alternative civilian service, which serves as a constitutionally mandated prerequisite for the reintroduction of compulsory military service.
The federal government is taking measures to implement a new civilian service system in the event that mandatory military service is restored.
The Federal Ministry for Family Affairs confirmed that over recent months it surveyed 23 major associations and organizations regarding the types of opportunities they could offer to conscientious objectors should compulsory military service be reinstated.
A ministry spokesperson stated: “22 out of the 23 associations indicated that, in the event that the military obligation is reactivated, their infrastructure and placements are in principle ready, and they could offer a wide variety of opportunities to those performing civilian service in lieu of military service.”
Thorsten Frei, parliamentary secretary of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) faction in the Bundestag, considers taking precautions against the potential entry into force of a new civilian service to be “very sensible and correct.”
Speaking to the channels RTL and ntv, the CDU politician noted that there is currently no new development in the discussions regarding a return to military service.
However, Frei emphasized: “We can never rule out that decisions may need to be taken quickly to prepare for all contingencies. In that case, the resulting consequences must also be clear.”
Criticism regarding the potential reintroduction of compulsory civilian service has emerged from the opposition.
Ines Schwerdtner, co-leader of The Left party, stressed that “the state should not dictate to young people how they ought to spend a year of their lives.” This principle, she asserted, applies as much to compulsory civilian service as it does to compulsory military service.
According to Schwerdtner, young people should not be used “to fill the gaps in a welfare state that the federal government has spent years ruining through austerity policies.”
In statements to the Funke Media Group, the party chair emphasized that there is no need for “state-mandated cheap labor” in care services, emergency rescue services, or social institutions.
Martin Hagen, Secretary General of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), views the preparations by the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs as an admission of failure by the CDU-SPD coalition government.
Pointing out that plans for a new civilian service are already being drawn up, Hagen stated that this demonstrates the coalition government has “zero confidence in its efforts to reach the target personnel numbers for the Bundeswehr through voluntary enlistment.”
Hagen criticized the CDU/CSU and SPD for failing to “make the Bundeswehr an attractive employer and to inspire young people toward military service.”
The Social Association of Germany (SoVD) also expressed concern, presenting arguments similar to those of Left Party leader Schwerdtner.
Michaela Engelmeier, Chairwoman of the SoVD Executive Board, stated that compulsory civilian service would represent a major intervention by the state in the freedom and life plans of young people.
She likewise warned that a new civilian service could be abused to obtain cheap labor and to substitute for regular employment. Instead of focusing on a new civilian service, she argued that the federal government ought to strengthen voluntary work.
According to junge Welt (jW), the German media is applauding this step, with some outlets now demanding further forms of compulsory service not merely for youth, but for everyone.
As the newspaper Neue Ruhr Zeitung (NRZ) acknowledged, the government’s plans imply that “the implementation of general conscription is drawing near.”
It is argued that these compulsory services are necessary “due to the threat originating from Russia and NATO’s shifting objectives.”
The newspaper Die Rheinpfalz expressed regret that the “voluntary community service year” is “unfortunately being overlooked” in the current debate, while echoing the German government’s rationale:
“Ever since the hope for everlasting peace in Europe was shattered by Russia’s brutal attack on Ukraine, Germany once again requires more soldiers.”
Arguing that this idea is “more logical today than ever,” the newspaper continued:
“Everyone devotes a few months to society between school, vocational training, and university. Naturally, it remains up to each individual to decide whether that time is spent in the military, or in a hospital, a care home, or a fire station.”
Even within Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND), the prevailing view is that rather than merely debating a new civilian service program for conscientious objectors, a “fundamental and comprehensive debate regarding a period of social service or a general mandatory service year” should be initiated.
The deputy head of RND’s Berlin bureau states that compulsory service requires “public acceptance.” The “enormous potential of a universal mandatory service year” and the “certainty of personally contributing to the country’s security and stability” are highlighted as significant justifications driving Germany toward a new mandatory conscription turning point.
RND writes that women as well as men, and older adults alongside young people, would be included in this framework, adding that people could finally “do something for the state—and consequently for themselves.”
Compulsory military service was suspended in July 2011, which in practice meant the abolition of both military and civilian service. Civilian service was replaced by the Federal Voluntary Service.
At the beginning of this year, a new military service framework came into effect. The foundation of this arrangement relies on a mandatory health examination for young men born in 2008 and later. Through this mechanism, the aim is to recruit volunteers to strengthen the armed forces.
Should target capacity ranges fail to be met, the Bundestag may enact a decision on “need-based mandatory conscription.”
-
Asia2 weeks agoChina launches global tax audit on super-rich to recover billions
-
Europe2 weeks agoEuropean nations seek alternatives to Palantir amid growing digital sovereignty concerns
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoDefense Priorities director warns US air strategy in Middle East faces tactical limits
-
Europe2 weeks agoEuropean carmakers turn to Chinese rivals to salvage struggling plants
-
Europe2 weeks agoDenmark to deploy conscripts to Greenland for first time amid Arctic security risks
-
Europe2 weeks agoEU governments push to narrow “Made in Europe” preference rules in industrial draft bill
-
Opinion2 weeks agoMacroeconomic consequences of asymmetric UAV attacks in Russia
-
Europe2 weeks agoGerman carmakers face historical crisis as Chinese competition and market contraction erode profits
