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Diplomacy

Full support for Saudi Arabia against the threats from the US

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Following the decision of the OPEC+ group -a group of countries made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC member countries- to reduce their crude oil production, Saudi Arabia has received wide support from the Arab world and Turkey, after receiving political pressures from the United States.

After the decision to reduce the crude oil production, Washington came forth against Saudi Arabia with harsh statements and threats of sanctions, while reactions from all over the Arab world and the countries in the region are now rising. The countries that support the OPEC+ decision, are also opposing the accusations against Saudi Arabia by the United States of America.

While the Secretary-General of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit has expressed “full support” for Saudi Arabia’s decision to reduce the crude oil production, he also condemned the harsh smear campaign launched against Riyadh administration.

Regarding the accusations from Washington, Gheit stated “They are aimed at politicizing purely economic decisions that everyone realizes are necessary for the stability of the global economy given the dangerous challenges it is facing”.

The speaker of the Arab Parliament Adel Abdulrahman Al Asoomi also said they reject and condemn the accusations made against Saudi Arabia. Asoomi stated that the Arab Parliament is in full solidarity with Saudi Arabia, and that the decisions taken by OPEC and OPEC+ are taken by the unanimous vote of the member states, and that the decision is made taking the supply and demand in the global oil market into account.

Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) Secretary-General Hissein Brahim Taha has also approved the slams from the Saudis, regarding the accusations against it, just after the OPEC+ decision.

Another individual who expressed support for the Riyadh administration, had been the Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita. Bourita stated that the Rabat administration supports all decisions of the Saudi foreign policy. Bourita also added that “the Kingdom’s foreign policy in the diplomatic or energy fields is based on a long-term vision, and a rational and wise basis, and is not subject to pressure”.

And the Algerian Energy Minister Mohamed Arkab also said the OPEC+ decision was taken due to “purely technical” needs, given the global economic trends and the current state of the energy market.

Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have also reiterated their support for the OPEC+ decision, stressing that the decision had no political motivations.

Iraq: We reject the policy of threats and oppression

Iraq was also among the countries that declared its support for the OPEC+ decision and for Saudi Arabia.

The Iraqi Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday they reject any policies that is threatening or oppressive, while reiterating the support for Saudi Arabia.

In a statement issued through the state-owned news agency, the ministry called for “resolving any disagreement related to this case through the natural means and in the context of a direct and balanced dialog”.

Cavusoglu: You have to lift the sanctions if you want prices to fall

Turkey was also among the countries that expressed support for OPEC+ decision to reduce the oil production, and the reactions against Washington’s statements against Saudi Arabia.

In his statement regarding the oil prices, the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said, “We are seeing that a country is threatening Saudi Arabia, and this bullying is not correct. Sanctions need to be lifted if the world wants oil prices to decrease, this issue cannot be resolved by threatening a single country”.

The Decision from OPEC and the US reaction to it

The OPEC+ group, which consists of all OPEC members and some non-OPEC oil producers, have taken a decision to reduce daily crude oil extraction by 2 million barrels from the beginning of November, after a meeting held in Vienna, Austria on October 5th.

The United States and Europe, which are among the countries that are affected by the rising oil prices after the Russian intervention in Ukraine, have instead expected Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries to increase their oil production in order keep the prices stable.

And it was also reported that the US President Joe Biden had asked the Riyadh administration to increase their crude oil production.

The decision contrary to the expectations of the US and Europe, to reduce the oil production led to reactions from the Washington administration. The White House has commented on this decision as “OPEC+ is clearly on the Russian side” while accusing Saudi Arabia of “helping Russia” in the Ukrainian War.

After protesting this decision, Joe Biden said that the US would revise its relationship with Saudi Arabia, threatening that such decision would have uncertain “consequences” for the kingdom.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia denies the accusations, saying this decision was taken due to economic reasons.

Saudi Arabia’s refrains to condemn the Russian intervention in Ukraine, despite pressures from the United States and the West, has further strained relations.

Experts share the view that the tensions between the Biden administration and OPEC+, and especially the Gulf members of the group, will increase even further.

OPEC members

OPEC member countries are as follows: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Kuwait, Algeria, Angola, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Nigeria.

The 10 extra members of the OPEC+ group, which was established in 2016 after a decision to collaborate with 10 other oil producers, are as follows: Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, South Sudan and Sudan.

All these countries listed above, make up about 40 percent of the total crude oil production in the world.

Saudi Arabia stands as the largest producer among OPEC members.

Diplomacy

US drafts Ukraine plan with Nord Stream restart and sanctions relief

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Draft proposals by the US administration to end the war in Ukraine envisage establishing a demilitarised line in the Donbass region, easing sanctions against Moscow, and offering a comprehensive investment package to Kyiv.

According to a report by the British magazine The Economist, citing Ukrainian officials, Washington is working on a broad framework comprising both economic and political points to persuade the parties to reach a settlement.

Under the draft plan reported by the publication, Russia is offered the opportunity to conclude trade agreements with the US, an easing of sanctions, and the normalisation of political relations.

Ukraine, in exchange for relinquishing its goal of NATO membership, is promised direct foreign investment and European Union accession.

The report notes that Ukrainian officials do not possess complete visibility over every detail of the final text on the table, but are closely familiar with its overarching framework.

Nord Stream pipeline and natural gas shipments on the table

The Economist reported that the package designed to persuade the leadership in Moscow also includes items such as the resumption of Russian natural gas sales to the European market and the reactivation of the Nord Stream pipeline.

The magazine also points out that decisions regarding the operation of a pipeline located on European territory do not fall directly under US jurisdiction.

Ukrainian negotiators, meanwhile, are concerned that the Washington delegation may lock in commercial agreements in line with its own economic interests before the fighting formally stops.

Speaking to the magazine, a Ukrainian official summed up the American side’s approach with the words: ‘Why wait and waste time? Time is money.’

Diplomatic contacts intensify at leadership level

Stating that it is ready for talks, the Russian government announced that an agreement had been reached in recent contacts with Washington to launch a trilateral negotiation process that would also include Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said: ‘The objective of these negotiations will be to address the issue of ensuring the security of Ukraine and Russia once peace agreements are reached.’

As part of these diplomatic efforts, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, met Russian leader Putin on 21 October at the Konstantinovsky Palace in St. Petersburg.

Speaking during the portion of the meeting open to the media, Witkoff noted that he had brought documents outlining a pathway to peace and asked Putin to examine these texts.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that the president would evaluate the American proposals.

Noting that concrete ground for a ceasefire had emerged during the St. Petersburg meeting, Witkoff expressed hope for the start of trilateral contacts between Russia, the US, and Ukraine to address technical matters.

Putin thanked Trump for his interest in peace efforts and recounted that the US president had specifically emphasized during their recent telephone calls that the war must end as soon as possible.

Framework prepared in Oslo carried to Moscow

Immediately before his visit to St. Petersburg, Witkoff had attended talks held on 20 October in Oslo, the capital of Norway.

Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner joined the meeting remotely due to illness, which was attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store.

According to information provided by Stubb, the parties at the Oslo meeting clarified key security and economic elements that the American envoy would present to Moscow. Air defence systems, energy infrastructure, and partial ceasefire measures were also discussed.

Commenting after the talks in St. Petersburg, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov argued that the newly presented approaches did not contain many elements useful for a resolution.

Noting that Witkoff informed Putin about the contacts in Oslo and relayed fresh nuances in the positions of European leaders and the Kyiv government, Ushakov stated that the meeting was thorough and frank, adding that the conflict is ‘moving toward an end.’

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South Korea pulls part of embassy staff from Ukraine amid POW dispute

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The South Korean government has decided to withdraw part of its embassy staff from Ukraine.

According to the Yonhap news agency, Foreign Ministry spokesman Park Doo-sun cited the Kyiv administration’s failure to take “positive steps” in the dispute that began with the leak of information concerning the handover of North Korean prisoners of war as the justification for the move.

The spokesman also listed the ongoing threat of air strikes, which complicates the safety of diplomats, among the reasons.

Following the withdrawal of part of the personnel, essential diplomatic contacts will continue under the leadership of the charge d’affaires ad interim to Ukraine. All consular staff tasked with protecting South Korean citizens will remain in Ukraine.

Prior to this move, the Seoul administration decided on 8 October to withdraw its ambassador. The Foreign Ministry stated at the time that it was ready to continue consultations with Kyiv to resolve the emerging issues constructively.

Tensions between the two countries began with a speech delivered by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations General Assembly in September.

Zelenskyy announced that two captured soldiers from the North Korean army had been handed over to South Korea.

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, meanwhile, accused Kyiv of breaching a confidentiality agreement.

Lee said the disclosure of this information endangered the prisoners’ families and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

Seoul expects a public apology

Dmytro Lytvyn, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, denied the existence of a confidentiality agreement.

The South Korean Foreign Ministry summoned Ukrainian Charge d’Affaires Andriy Veshkin on 28 September and issued a note of protest against Lytvyn’s remarks.

President Lee Jae-myung warned in a statement on 2 October that they would take additional measures against Kyiv if Ukrainian authorities did not acknowledge the agreement and make a public apology. Lee stated that Ukraine itself had initially requested that the transfer of the prisoners be kept confidential.

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said the dispute stemmed from differing interpretations of the confidentiality regime.

Tykhyi noted that Seoul, based on its constitution which recognises the entire Korean Peninsula as its own territory, requested that the prisoners be handed over “like its own citizens”.

Describing the handover as a “gesture of goodwill”, Tykhyi stated that they were conducting closed-door negotiations to resolve differences of opinion.

Ambassador Park Ki-chang returned to Seoul on 10 October. According to a report by The Korea Times newspaper citing the ministry, recalling the ambassador served as a diplomatic protest against the leak of information regarding the prisoners.

The newspaper wrote that South Korea had last taken a similar step in 2008 by withdrawing its ambassador to Japan.

Moscow warned foreign diplomats

On 3 October, the Russian Foreign Ministry reiterated its warning to foreign nationals, including diplomatic mission staff, against remaining in Ukraine.

The ministry recalled its advice to leave Kyiv, citing ongoing strikes against military targets.

The ministry noted that those who failed to heed the warnings would bear responsibility for the potential consequences.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a statement on 24 September that they had no information regarding Kyiv handing over two North Korean prisoners of war to Seoul.

Peskov, noting that prisoner matters fall under the authority of the Defence Ministry and intelligence services, said, “Contacts through the special services are continuing.”

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Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry

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August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.

Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.

Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.

According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.

The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.

This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.

Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals

According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.

The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.

Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.

Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.

Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe

The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.

Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.

Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.

The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.

Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.

In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.

In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.

In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.

Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.

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