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Gaza ceasefire talks enter dangerous phase

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As Ramadan approaches, negotiations between Israel and Hamas have reached an impasse over whether Palestinian men can return to northern Gaza.

Weeks of ceasefire talks have entered their most dangerous phase as US and Arab mediators rush to reach an agreement to halt fighting in Gaza and free some hostages held there until the last day of Ramadan.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Egyptian officials with knowledge of the talks said Egypt’s intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel, stepped in to prevent Hamas from walking out of the talks late on Tuesday and persuaded it to stay at the table for another day even though the two sides appeared deadlocked.

Hamas said in a statement early yesterday that it had shown ‘the necessary flexibility’ to reach an agreement and would continue negotiations ‘to reach an agreement that meets the demands and interests of the people’.

Israel and Hamas are at loggerheads over whether men of fighting age should be allowed to return to the northern part of Gaza, which Israel has closed to entry during the ceasefire, Egyptian officials said. An Israeli official familiar with the matter denied that the issue was currently part of the negotiations.

According to the Israeli official, Israel is not negotiating directly with Hamas in the ceasefire talks brokered by the US, Egypt and Qatar, and is still waiting for Hamas to respond. The main questions Israel wants answered are how many and which Palestinian prisoners Hamas is demanding for each hostage it releases, and how many of the sick, elderly and female hostages it is holding are still alive. Israel has put the number at around 40 and says it will not send a negotiating team to Cairo until it receives the answers. Hamas, for its part, says it needs several days without fighting to calculate the number.

Israeli officials say Hamas’s leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, is not interested in a deal, hoping instead that continued fighting will lead to an escalation of tensions in the West Bank and Jerusalem during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which begins on Sunday.

“We got nothing. Nothing has changed. Sinwar wants tensions to escalate in the Middle East and especially in Israel, and he wants his own people to suffer,” the Israeli official said.

If negotiations fail, Israel has threatened to launch a military operation against Rafah, a city of more than a million Palestinians, during Ramadan, which begins around March 10. The US has warned that such an operation, which Israel sees as crucial to ousting Hamas from the area, should not be undertaken without a plan to limit civilian casualties. Israeli leaders have also said they will not carry out such an operation without civilian casualties.

Politically, the consequences of a deal or failure are enormous. The occupation of Rafah, which Israel ordered the Palestinians to leave at the start of the war, could inflame tensions in the region and trigger a wider conflict on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. Hezbollah and the Israeli army have exchanged fire on the border since Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October.

Global shipping routes have also been disrupted by attacks in the Red Sea, which Yemen’s Houthis say are aimed at forcing an end to the war in Gaza. On Wednesday, a Barbados-flagged bulk carrier was hit in an attack claimed by the Houthis, killing three people on board – the first known casualties since the Iran-backed group began attacking merchant ships in late November, according to the US military.

The Biden administration, under electoral pressure over the scale of the humanitarian tragedy in Gaza, has stepped up talks in the hope of securing a six-week pause in hostilities to facilitate the delivery of more humanitarian aid.

Egyptian officials said Hamas wanted a commitment to a permanent ceasefire, followed by a six-week break in hostilities, in return for Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza, allowing hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians to return to their homes in the north, and the release of living Israeli hostages.

MIDDLE EAST

UK adds £75 billion to defence budget

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The UK has pledged to add a further £75 billion to its defence budget over the next six years, taking spending well above the Nato target and putting pressure on its European allies to follow suit.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said during a visit to Poland on Tuesday that the new package was ‘the biggest boost to our national defence for a generation’, while his office argued that it ‘sets a new standard for other major European Nato economies to follow’.

The move will enable the UK to spend the equivalent of 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence by the end of the decade.

Speaking at a press conference with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, Sunak argued that now was not the time for complacency, saying: “We cannot continue to worry about what price America will pay or what burden America will bear if we are not willing to make sacrifices for our own security.”

The pledge, which Sunak insisted would not require budget cuts or tax rises, would increase Britain’s annual defence spending to £87 billion by 2030-31.

“A game changer for European security”

“If all NATO countries spent at least 2.5 per cent of their GDP on defence, our collective budget would increase by more than £140 billion,” the prime minister’s office said in a statement accompanying Sunak’s announcement.

London said the new package would include an extra £10 billion investment in munitions production over the next decade and radical reforms to Britain’s defence procurement procedures. It will also create a new ‘Defence Innovation Agency’ to boost military research and development.

“Today is a turning point for European security and an important moment for British defence,” said Sunak.

Responding to Sunak’s announcement, Labour’s shadow defence secretary John Healey said his party would “like to see a fully funded plan” to reach 2.5 per cent, but that “the Conservatives have shown time and again that they cannot be trusted on defence and we will be looking closely at the details of their announcement”.

Sunak urges Europeans to spend more

After Warsaw, he travelled to Berlin and met Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Rishi Sunak told European countries that they must increase their defence spending to ensure that the United States remains committed to NATO in the future.

The prime minister said the continent must take more responsibility for its defence in an environment where Donald Trump is running for a second term in the White House.

Speaking with Scholz in Berlin, Sunak said US presidents have “reasonably” always demanded that Europe spend more on defence.

He argued that European countries could not ask the US to fund the continent’s security unless they were “prepared to sacrifice” themselves.

The Prime Minister noted that it was important for Europe to show that it was taking on more of the burden ‘to keep the United States committed to NATO’.

British helicopters heading to Russian border for NATO exercises

NATO is planning a training exercise in Finland on Friday in an area close to the Russian border.

The UK is taking part in the exercises. A squadron of nine British Army Apache attack helicopters, worth £40 million each, are heading to Finland to take part in what has been described as ‘the biggest Nato exercise since the Cold War’.

After Finland, four Wildcat reconnaissance helicopters and two RAF Chinook support helicopters will travel to Estonia, where they will remain for an extended period.

The exercise in Finland involving Apache attack helicopters is called ‘Arrow’, while the exercise in Estonia involving all three types of helicopter is called ‘Swift Response’.

The exercises are part of Steadfast Defender 24, which tests NATO’s plans to strengthen its defences in Europe against an “imminent enemy”.

The exercises involve 90,000 troops from 32 members of the military alliance, as well as around 20,000 British personnel.

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UN calls for ‘credible and independent’ probe into Gaza mass graves

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Mass graves found in the southern Gaza town of Khan Younis, where the Israeli army withdrew after months of assault and occupation, have once again exposed Israeli brutality. The United Nations has called for a full and independent investigation.

The Israeli army withdrew from Khan Younis on 7 April after four months of ground occupation. With the withdrawal came the discovery of mass graves in the city and the recovery of bodies from the rubble of houses and roadsides. These efforts, led by civil defence teams, were joined by Palestinians trying to find and identify their lost relatives.

The official Palestinian news agency WAFA, quoting health sources in Gaza, reported that search and rescue teams exhumed 190 bodies of men and women of various ages killed by Israeli soldiers from a mass grave in the Nasser Hospital complex.

The United Nations (UN) said the news of the mass graves in Gaza was very disturbing and that a full and independent investigation should be carried out in the areas where the graves were found.

UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric was responding to questions from journalists at the daily press briefing. Asked about the news that mass graves had been found in Nasser Hospital after Shifa Hospital, Dujarric said: “The news is very disturbing. Stressing the need for a full and independent investigation into the areas where the graves were found, Dujarric also said that this clearly shows why a ceasefire is needed.

Dujarric reiterated the need for greater access for humanitarian workers, the protection of hospitals and the release of detainees.

In a written statement, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry said that “it is regrettable and shameful to see such a blatant violation of international law and humanitarian values in the 21st century before the eyes of the whole world, international organisations and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC)”. The statement condemned Israel’s repeated violations of international law and humanitarian law in Gaza and called on the international community to intervene immediately to stop these violations and to launch the necessary investigations to hold those responsible to account.

The statement noted that the killings, destruction and violence in the West Bank in recent weeks are at least as dangerous and reckless as those in Gaza, and that attacks by Jewish settlers against Palestinian civilians and their property under the protection of Israeli soldiers must stop.

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MIDDLE EAST

German CDU/CSU push for ban on agricultural imports from Russia

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The Christian Democratic Union (CDU/CSU) parliamentary group in the German Bundestag wants a complete ban on agricultural and food imports from Russia and Belarus in order to “weaken Russia’s fighting power”.

Albert Stegemann, the CDU’s agriculture expert, told dpa that Russia was financing its war against Ukraine with exports from the agricultural and food sector.

“This must be prevented. Higher tariffs on Russian grain are not enough,” Stegemann said.

The CDU/CSU argues that the SPD has been too close to Putin in the past and has not done enough to support Ukraine.

In addition, the CDU, like the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) in the European Parliament (EP), is focusing its message on supporting the agricultural sector, which is also on the agenda in Germany, especially after the recent EU-wide farmer protests.

However, the European Commission is considering imposing tariffs to reduce Russia’s income from agricultural imports, arguing that these are outside the scope of sanctions. Food and fertilisers have so far been exempted from EU trade restrictions so as not to ‘undermine global food security’.

Meanwhile, on 12 March, a majority of MEPs in the European Parliament called for a total ban on agricultural and food imports from Russia to the EU.

While Stegemann argued that Germany and Europe are not dependent on Russian grain, the CDU motion, which is expected to be debated in the Bundestag on Thursday, calls on the government to prepare the option of an import ban if an agreement cannot be reached at EU level.

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