Diplomacy
Global reaction to the joint US-Israel offensive against Iran
The joint military campaign, designated “Operation Epic Fury” by the US and “Operation Roaring Lion” by Israel, commenced on February 28, 2026.
The intervention aims to dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, neutralize its ballistic missile capabilities, and effect political transformation by overthrowing the regime in Tehran.
This act of aggression was executed citing the civil unrest that erupted in Iran on December 28, 2025, alongside the collapse of nuclear negotiations in early February.
Concurrently with a 02:00 statement from President Donald Trump on February 28, strikes targeted strategic nuclear facilities, missile manufacturing plants, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command centers in Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, and Kermanshah. The “decapitation” strikes resulted in the destruction of the residence of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed alongside more than 40 senior civilian and military officials.
Constitutional authority crisis deepens in Washington
The Trump administration has characterized the operation as an exercise of national self-defense, asserting that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weaponry constitutes an existential threat to the US homeland. President Trump has explicitly declared the goal of regime change, calling upon the Iranian populace to seize control of their government.
Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson have defended the operation, maintaining that the authority to execute such actions rests squarely with the commander-in-chief.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham emphasized the necessity of carrying the operation to its conclusion, alleging that Arab allies would also participate in the effort. Senator Markwayne Mullin criticized Congressional oversight, arguing that the President must be the sole decision-maker during times of war.
Conversely, Democrats have challenged the legal basis for the operation. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer noted that the administration lacks an exit strategy and warned of the dangers of mission creep.
Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia and Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky introduced a War Powers Resolution that would mandate the withdrawal of US forces absent Congressional approval. However, the probability of the bill’s passage has diminished due to support for the operation from Democrats such as Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. California Governor Gavin Newsom and Representative Ro Khanna characterized the situation as a “manufactured crisis.”
American public opinion remains deeply divided
Surveys conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and Ipsos have illuminated the profound anxieties within American society.
While 49% of respondents support air strikes against nuclear facilities, 40% approved the deployment of ground troops. The proportion of the public asserting that Congressional approval is mandatory reached 56%.
Concerns regarding the risk of the intervention precipitating a regional war have risen to 71%. Furthermore, 79% of the public indicated a preference for continued diplomatic efforts.
Spain bans use of military bases
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez adopted the most stringent stance against the operation, declaring “No to war.” Sanchez described the campaign as playing Russian roulette with the fate of millions and prohibited the US from utilizing the Rota and Moron military bases.
President Trump labeled Spain a “terrible partner” and announced that he had instructed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to suspend trade relations with the nation. Secretary Bessent confirmed that this embargo would be implemented as a unified effort.
European Union (EU) Internal Market Commissioner Stéphane Séjourné noted that a threat against one member state would be considered a threat against the entire bloc. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz informed the US administration that EU trade policies are managed centrally and that no separate agreement excluding Spain could be negotiated.
European allies pivot to defensive measures
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that British forces are not directly participating in offensive operations, noting that Royal Air Force aircraft are engaged exclusively in coordinated regional defensive duties.
The London government authorized the use of the Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford bases for limited defensive purposes. In the UK Parliament, Conservative members expressed full support for the operation, while the Liberal Democrats demanded a parliamentary vote regarding the use of the bases.
Chancellor Merz explained that while Germany shares Israel’s security concerns, the nation would not provide active participation.
Merz emphasized that his priority is ensuring the safety of German military personnel stationed in Jordan and Iraq. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul noted that German personnel would exercise their right to self-defense should they come under attack.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of the risk of a chain reaction and condemned the actions of all parties involved. During an emergency session of the UN Security Council, US representative Mike Waltz stated that the attacks were legal, while Iranian representative Saeid Iravani questioned the legitimacy of forced political appointment.
Russia and China condemned the intervention as a premeditated act. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed support for the degradation of nuclear capabilities but clarified that the alliance would not collectively enter the war. EU official Kaja Kallas has intensified diplomatic engagement with Gulf nations.
Energy supplies jeopardized in Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has destabilized the global economy. Maritime traffic has decreased by 70%, with vessels rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope. Natural gas prices increased by 50% following drone strikes on facilities in Qatar.
Gulf nations have closed their airspace; thousands of flights originating from Dubai, Doha, and Kuwait have been canceled. The Canadian Centre for Cyber Security has warned that Iranian entities, including Unit 42, APT42, and MuddyWater, are preparing cyberattacks against critical Western infrastructure.
International human rights organizations have highlighted the humanitarian dimension of the operation. According to data from HRANA, approximately 1,100 Iranian civilians had lost their lives as of March 4. Reports of a missile strike hitting a school in Tehran, resulting in the deaths of 150 children, have received extensive international coverage.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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