Observers say that despite the uncertainty in Hanoi following the death of long-serving leader Nguyen Phu Trong, China’s relations with Vietnam will remain largely stable.
Mr Trong, 80, who died last week after a long illness, was a prominent figure in Vietnam’s rapid economic growth and fight against corruption. He also spearheaded Vietnam’s ‘bamboo diplomacy’, which struck a delicate balance in the US-China rivalry.
In a rare visit to the Vietnamese embassy in Beijing last Saturday, Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke of their ‘deep friendship’ and praised Trong’s ‘outstanding contribution’ to relations between the two countries and their ruling parties.
The Chinese Communist Party also issued a condolence message hours after Trong’s death was announced, describing him as ‘a good comrade, a good brother and a good friend’. China’s No 4 official, Wang Huning, is leading a delegation to Vietnam to attend Nguyen’s state funeral on Friday (today).
Hanoi stressed the importance of its relations with Beijing, pledging to Chinese Ambassador Pham Sao Mai to ‘stick to the strategic choice and priority of developing friendly cooperation with China’, according to the official Xinhua news agency.
Zhang Mingliang, an expert on Southeast Asian affairs at Jinan University in Guangzhou, said Xi’s embassy visit showed that Beijing was relatively satisfied with the development of bilateral relations during the Trong era.
“Compared to relations during the oil rig crisis in 2014 and [former US President Donald] Trump’s state visit to Vietnam in 2017, Sino-Vietnamese relations have improved significantly since Hanoi adopted the concept of ‘community of shared destiny’ at Beijing’s request last year,” Zhang told the South China Morning Post.
“Compared to the high tensions with the Philippines in the South China Sea, Vietnam and China have managed to get along well without exaggerating their deep differences on regional issues,” he added.
Relations between the communist neighbours have been turbulent in recent decades, with clashes over the disputed Paracel Islands in the 1970s and a brief but bloody border war in 1979.
Zhang noted that relations also hit a low point during the 2014 diplomatic row over China’s placement of a deepwater oil rig near the Paracels, which was seen as a turning point in Hanoi’s relations with Washington.
“Under Trong’s rule, Vietnam has managed to establish at least a superficially friendly relationship with China. But at the same time, Vietnam’s relations with the US and Russia have reached unprecedented levels,” Zhang said.
“The purpose of all this is to keep China in check and ensure that Vietnam enjoys a favourable international environment and relatively stable relations with China, which are largely under Hanoi’s control. This may seem like an impossible task, but Trong’s Vietnam has managed to hedge its bets with the big powers,” he added.
Relations with China
Vietnam’s most influential leader since founding revolutionary leader Ho Chi Minh, Trong became general secretary of the ruling party in 2011 and secured a precedent-setting third five-year term in 2021. Trong also served as Vietnam’s president from 2018 to 2020.
Amid speculation that his health was deteriorating, Trong visited Beijing in October 2022, his first overseas trip since suffering a stroke in 2019, and the first foreign leader to meet Xi after securing a third term.
In the past 10 months, despite his illness, Trong has hosted both Xi and US President Joe Biden in Hanoi, and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in June. Hanoi has also elevated Japan, India, South Korea and Australia to its highest level of comprehensive strategic partners.
Carl Thayer, professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales in Australia, told the South China Morning Post that Trong will be remembered for his 2015 trips to the US and Japan, which laid the groundwork for closer ties with the West.
“Hanoi’s relations with Beijing will remain ‘stable and friendly’ because Vietnam will not abandon its foreign policy of ‘peace, cooperation and development’,” Thayer said.
“China plays a special role in Vietnam’s foreign relations. It is Vietnam’s first comprehensive strategic partner and the only major power to be called a comprehensive strategic cooperation partner,” he said.
Analysts also pointed to Trong’s personal bond with Xi and the ties between the two communist parties, which over the years have acted as a counterweight in the turbulent relationship between Hanoi and Beijing.
As Vietnam has expanded its diplomacy and improved its relations with the United States, I think Trong has been able to convince Beijing that Vietnam is truly neutral and independent and that improving relations with Washington would not be to Beijing’s detriment,” said Southeast Asia expert Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington.
“This was possible because of Trong’s resolute communist ideology. He saw the world the way Xi Jinping does,” he added.
Abuza also noted that China has inter-party channels with Vietnam to ensure a constant flow of communication between senior officials, something the United States does not have.
Nguyen Khac Giang, an analyst at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said Trong and Xi had a close relationship because of their shared commitment to Marxism-Leninism.
“This helped stabilise bilateral relations, especially during periods of tension over maritime disputes in the South China Sea, Trong also had a very positive view of China and admired the Chinese Communist Party, but took a pragmatic approach with them on many sensitive issues,” the analyst told the South China Morning Post.
Although Trong’s potential successors, such as President To Lam, may not have the same bond with Xi, “I don’t think this will greatly affect Hanoi’s ability to maintain good relations with China because the inter-party bond remains strong,” Giang said.
He said the bamboo diplomacy approach ‘is working well’ and Trong’s successor is unlikely to change it or its core policies ‘to prove his legitimacy as the rightful heir’, at least in the medium term.
‘No drastic changes in foreign policy’
A day before his death, Trong’s duties were temporarily transferred to Lam. Lam, 66, who became head of state in May, was previously Vietnam’s minister of public security and oversaw the anti-corruption campaign. The so-called ‘furnace of fire’ campaign has led to the dismissal of 40 members of the party’s central committee and dozens of army and police generals since 2016.
The removal of six of the 18 members of the Politburo since December 2022, including three of Vietnam’s top five leaders since March, has raised concerns about uncertainty.
Despite the political turmoil, Abuza said he expects ‘absolutely no change’ in Vietnam’s foreign policy, saying Hanoi will remain ‘scrupulously neutral’ and has deep economic ties with both China and the US and its allies.
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