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Israel’s attack on Isfahan signals a change in strategy

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The drone attack on the Iranian military facility in Isfahan signals a significant shift in Israel’s strategy to contain Iran. Washington, which now prioritizes the Asia-Pacific region but worries that China and Russia may fill the vacuum left in the Middle East, has given its implicit approval to this shift.

Iran officially blamed Israel for the January 28 drone attack on a military facility in Isfahan. Early investigations suggest that the Israeli regime was responsible for this drone attack, Said Iravani, Iran’s Permanent Representative to the UN, wrote in a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. ‘Iran reserves its legitimate and inherent right to defend its national security and respond resolutely to any threats or wrongful actions by the Israeli regime, wherever and whenever deemed necessary,’ the letter said.

What is known about the attack?

  • Iranian state-run news agency announced that micro-drones hit an advanced weapons-production facility of the Iranian Ministry of Defense on the night of January 28.
  • On January 29, The WSJ wrote that the drone attack was carried out by Israel, based on unnamed US officials and people familiar with the operation.
  • “Washington had no hand in the Isfahan attack,” Israeli public broadcaster KAN quoted an unnamed US official.
  • “We don’t have a comment on these reports,” an Israeli army spokesman told Anadolu Agency.
  • According to “Nournews,” a news outlet with close ties to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, the equipment used in the attack was transferred into Iran with the help of separationist Kurdish groups based in Iraq’s northern region under orders by a foreign security service.

Israel’s shift in strategy

Israel’s actions have so far followed a plan that prioritizes combating Iran’s nuclear program and extra-Iran militia groups. Israel’s killings of scientists working for Tehran’s nuclear program and strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities were all part of this overarching strategy. Second, Israel launched aerial attacks on Iranian militias, Tehran-backed armed groups, and ammunition shipments. At this point, it is important to stress that Russia has “overlooked” the air strikes against the “Iran-backed militias” in Syria. This implicit agreement with Russia knowingly made Tel Aviv reluctant to provide strategic weapons to Ukraine until yesterday.

By adding a third pillar, Israel has expanded its plan with the Isfahan strike: targeting Iran’s missile and UAV technology directly on Iranian soil.

The reason behind the shift

So why did Israel need this shift in strategy, and what is its purpose?

First off, the Tel Aviv government views Iran’s nuclear arsenal as an existential danger. Therefore, from the very beginning, Israel has opposed the Democrats-led United States, sitting at the table with Iran. Tel Aviv advocates for a continuation of the “hawkish” approach to Iran that the Trump administration has taken. Coming at a time when nuclear talks were hopeless, this strike conveys that Israel does not hesitate to engage in a harder fight with Tehran. This not only shows the politically discordant United States how determined Tel Aviv is in terms of Iran but also paves the way for “normalization” with Arab countries suffering from the “Iran threat.” Moreover, by the “external enemy,” Israel also makes an effort to assuage concerns voiced about “extreme” actions that provoked a backlash among Israelis, such as the judicial reform of the extreme right-wing government. As a matter of fact, both the conflict that flared up due to Israel’s hardened policy against the Palestinians in the West Bank for a while and the attack in Isfahan have already overshadowed the protests against the government.

Timing is remarkable

  • Just one day after the conclusion of the “Juniper Oak” exercise, billed as the “most important joint military exercise ever” of the United States and Israel, and allegedly practicing the attack plan, the strike on Iran supposedly went into effect.
  • White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was in Tel Aviv 10 days before the strike. Furthermore, a “surprise” strike occurred while CIA chief William Burns was in Israel. It is also remarkable that the highest-profile visit from the United States to Israel (the US Secretary of State) since Netanyahu came to power happened only three days after the attack.

Even if the United States did not have a direct role in the attack’s planning or organization, all these “coincidences” indicate that it had the knowledge and consent.

The timing of the strike for Iran also gives clues about Israel’s “political calculations.”

  • Criticism is growing, particularly in Europe, due to the demonstrations that began following the killing of Mahsa Amini, the method by which these rallies were crushed, and the death sentences given to protestors.
  • Despite continued behind-the-scenes talks, little hope is there for a return to the Nuclear Deal.
  • Furthermore, the attack “coincided” with the Atlantic reaction on the grounds that Tehran provided drones to Russia in the Ukraine War.
  • It should also be noted that Tel Aviv, chastised for not providing high-tech weaponry to Ukraine before the strike, audibly stated that it was considering supplying these weapons to Kyiv shortly after the attack.

In summary, Israel undoubtedly made a political “maneuver” to send a message to the West by attacking Tehran’s missile and UAV manufacturing facility, criticized for providing drones to Russia. This move demonstrates that Israel is unafraid to state its position clearly in the ongoing war between China, Russia, and the US over the sphere of influence in the Middle East.

How will Iran respond?

Iran has repeatedly declared that it will retaliate against the Israeli attack on Isfahan. Tehran’s reprisal for earlier assaults was either drone strikes on Israeli warships or coordinated cyberattacks against Israeli infrastructure. Last year, Iran also launched a ballistic-missile attack on an allegedly Israeli facility in Erbil. Tehran possibly avoids starting a new front while paying the costs of these low-intensity wars and conflicts and the enormous cost of internal demonstrations and economic sanctions. Tehran will most likely prefer to continue its low-intense fight with Tel Aviv on existing fronts.

However, Iran’s possibility of getting rid of the entrapment with a solution that Israel will not be pleased with is likely, albeit low. Iran has a bargaining chip in the nuclear negotiations: the drones exported to Russia. Why? Because Russia, not Iran, is the top priority for the United States and Europe. In addition, the sooner Europe, in need of Russian gas, agrees with Iran, the quicker it will have the opportunity to create another alternative to Russian gas.

US interest

Having been focused on the Asia-Pacific region for some time and gotten ready to struggle with China, the Biden administration is not keen on escalating tensions in the Middle East, especially not those that include Israel. However, Washington is worried that China and Russia will step in to fill the vacuum in the region. The old allies of the US in the Middle East are attempting to cultivate ties with its “enemies,” China and Russia, out of concern that they will be left vulnerable without the US security cover. On the other hand, these allies are forming new coalitions against Iran, their “foe” in the region. Under these circumstances, the United States seems to implicitly approve Israel’s new policy of raising tension against Iran, expecting Israel not to be drawn into a new adventure. It remains unknown which guarantees Israel gave to the US to get this approval. However, soon after the Isfahan strike, Netanyahu’s declaration on CNN that they may provide weapons to Ukraine offers insights into the nature of the such guarantee. Nevertheless, it is too soon to predict whether Israel would really supply weapons to Ukraine despite Russia. However, it is evident that the period has just begun in which Israel will make its name in the region through extremely “hawkish” policies.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Pakistan’s Parachanar Massacre: Who is responsible – civilians or security forces

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Stock of questions arises as not only banned militants disowned targeting of innocent civilians, including women and children, who were on way to home in Kurram city of Pakistan, but also the convoy was escorted by personnel of security forces. All personnel of security forces remained safe and sound, but the helpless and innocent civilians were shot and killed for undone sin.

On Friday, gunmen opened fire on convoys of Shia pilgrims, killing at least 42 people. Women and children were among the fatalities. The gunmen targeted two separate convoys traveling with police escorts from the Khurram district headquarter of Parachinar to Peshawar.

This is not the first ever incident but firing against vehicles and killings on the pretext of sectarian tension has been lingering on since a long, but the authorities concerned who are custodians of law and order in real terms are playing sectarian rather than maintaining law and order in the area.

Retired Inspector General Police, Syed Irshad Hussian Shah is right in his words that no other than state organs are involved when the innocent civilians including women and children are being killed in presence of security forces personnel.

Similarly, only people from the Shia school of thoughts have been targeted after confirmation of their identity. Hussain Shah is a noble and decent person, and he was never witnessed in such distress as he was shown in releasing the video message. He is right in his demand for a judicial inquiry into this recent massacre, but he needs to apprise him of such type of judicial inquiries results as it is always sealed and kept away from the general public.

Shia Muslims chant slogans to condemn the killing of Shia Muslims by gunmen in an ambush in Kurram district during a demonstration in Lahore, Pakistan, on Friday (November 22, 2024). (AP)

Sectarian tension in Kurram is not new or sectarian unrest is confined to this part of the country. Couple of years ago similar massacres of Shia Hazara in Quetta city of Pakistan remained routine but the Shia people came out on roads. They denounced and held no other than custodians of law and order responsible for such massacres. As a result of Shia Hazara community protests and now the situation is normal. Unless coming out on roads, forging unity amongst their ranks and getting rid of external hands and influence, people from all over Kurram would face such massacres also in future.

Sectarian and ethnic tensions are parts of a big game in Pakistan

No one can deny the fact that artificial trends of terrorism and extremism, ethnic and sectarian unrest and growing trends of extortion abs target killing are part of a great game. And the great game commence in late 70s from Afghanistan and is now in its full swing in Pakistan and rest of certain parts and parcels of Asian region. First ever sectarian clash occurred in Kurram in late 80’s when US lead allied folding back from Afghan jihad. Military dictator Ziaul Haq was in reign in that time. This first ever clash between the two sides continued for a couple of weeks and later on spread to adjacent Hangu, Kohat, Aurakzai, Dera Ismael Khan and other areas. Prior to first ever clash, almost Shia and Sunni populations remained calm and patient towards each others. But later besides direct clashes, target killing of Shia elders remained routine. Scores if families from Peshawar and other places have abandoned ancestral homes and properties and now residing ad refugees and immigrants in safe places both in and outside of the country.

Failure of socio-political leadership in Pakistan  

Civil administration and confused policies on the part of military leadership now converted the sectarian unrest into massacres of innocent and minority Shia people in Kurram. Economically, socially and politically, the Shia community of Kurram are dependent on Sunni people. The Shias are surrounded by Sunnis. The road connecting Shia dominated upper and Central Kurram is passing through Sada Town and its surrounding areas dominated by Sunnis. A large number of Sunnis are linked with hard line religious groups and in reaction, the Shias are seeking help from like minded internal and external groups.

Since the late 80’s government organs have been killing the time on constitution of jirgas and reconciliation teams for settling the issues-the issues of lands and properties disputes. But the results are very poor. In fact the civil administration lacked determinations, which enabled them to settle issues. At the moment the office of Deputy Commissioner is occupied by a junior officer who had earlier served Bara and Jamrud Tehsils as Revenue Officer but remained silent spectator to incidents of terror, target killing and extortion. Instead of wasting time and giving opportunities to both internal and external elements to exploit the situation in their favor, political leadership must play a role. It is the time to tackle the situation otherwise Kurram could be another Baluchistan in the coming few weeks.

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Some Afghan journalists contemplating suicide; but why?

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In the past three years, the Taliban have severely limited access to information in Afghanistan and in some cases made it almost impossible. Many journalists who operate from the country say that the space for their activities is getting narrower every day.

These reporters state that in addition to self-censorship, they have experienced a kind of unwanted imprisonment and spend days and nights in their homes. They cannot move freely in the community for fear of interrogation and revenge from the Taliban.

In this report, two journalists have confirmed that they thought of suicide due to pressure from the Taliban. They say that life in Afghanistan has become difficult and that the Taliban have appeared as “death angle” and that if they did not have children, they would commit suicide.

These journalists are disappointed with the institutions that support the media and say that they have no way out of the existing problems. This is despite the fact that the Taliban have imposed more restrictions during the past month and have banned the publication of photos and images in five provinces.

One of the journalists who works under the Taliban regime says that the space for journalists to breathe and live is getting narrower and more limited every day. According to him, the Taliban have created an atmosphere where reporters and media spend day and night in worry and fear, and because of this, they cannot cover many events.

Taliban severely restricted the media landscape in Afghanistan, making it nearly impossible for journalist to operate

She emphasized that in some cases, due to the fear of the Taliban, she has covered news events a few days after they happened to prevent the Taliban from drawing attention and focusing on herself.

This reporter, who does not want to be named in the report, emphasizes that the difficult living conditions, the strict restrictions of the Taliban and the fear of being arrested and interrogated by this group made her think of suicide.

Samera, one of the Afghan female journalists, using her pin name for security reason, said that the painful experience of working under the Taliban rule has made her think about suicide many times. She says that she was once arrested by the Taliban for filming for news coverage.

“My arrest by the Taliban was the most bitter and painful experience, which made forced me to think of committing suicide,” She lamented.

This journalist says: “When the Taliban arrested me, I was thinking what my family, my colleagues and the community would say if I stayed in the prison at night?”

She furthered, “Because the arrest of a woman by the Taliban willfully or unwittingly has negative and harmful consequences that one cannot think of anything other than suicide.”

When the Taliban took some journalists, including females to the court, one of them said “why did you bring them, you should have shot them.”

“There I saw an old man who was the same age as my father. He threw himself at Talib’s feet and apologized, but Talib did not pay any attention to him,” she added.

An Afghan journalist said that he will commit suicide this time if Taliban arrest him

Omid, another journalist who used his pin name to avoid arrest, has thought of suicide many times, and he was also arrested several times. He says that despite his efforts, he did not succeed in leaving Afghanistan. “I’ll commit suicide if the Taliban arrest me once again,” he warned.

He furthered that he has heard a lot about torture and ill-treatment in the Taliban prison and has a horrible image of the prison scenes in his mind.

“Before the Taliban torture and insult me ​​in a terrible way, or take a video commitment from me… I prefer to put an end to this life,” he warned, adding that “I think that suicide is the only way to end all this suffering and misery.”

Another journalist who is currently in Pakistan also confirms that he thought of suicide due to mental and psychological problems. She says: “God is a witness to the hardships I experienced in Pakistan, it had ruined my soul and spirit so much that I thought if I committed suicide, I might get rid of these ordeals.”

In the past one month, the Taliban have continuously and systematically prevented the video activities of the media in a number of provinces across the country. After banning photography and filming, this group has now banned five provinces from these activities and announced that this restriction will be gradually applied in all provinces.

The Taliban authorities have informed the local media of the ban on taking pictures and publishing them, as well as banning the video interviews of their officials in Nangarhar province.

Azizullah Mustafa, the deputy governor of the Taliban in Nangarhar has ordered all the local employees that according to the order of the Taliban supreme leader it is forbidden to take pictures of living creatures and publish them, and the media is only allowed to communicate with Taliban officials.

Taliban already banned taking pictures of living creatures in five provinces in Afghanistan

Kandahar, Takhar, Badghis, Helmand and Nangarhar are among the provinces, where taking pictures of living creatures and publishing them, as well as video interviews, are completely prohibited.

The Taliban have closed three radio stations in Khost province during the past month under extensive pressure. “Gharghasht”, “Zheman” and “Long” radios have been blocked by the Taliban and they have resumed their activities after providing a written commitment to comply with the Taliban’s orders.

The Center of Afghan Journalists has already announced that the Taliban have imposed 17 restrictive directives against the media. These restrictions include preventing women from appearing on national radio and television, banning media coverage of demonstrations and civil protests, imposing restrictions on access to information and publishing news and reports, requiring journalists and media to introduce the Taliban regime as the “government of Afghanistan”.

Also, the Taliban have imposed restrictions on interviews with their opponents and critics. They have banned the broadcast of international television programs in Afghanistan and have imposed restrictions on publishing commercials with political, security and social content. In addition, the media have been prohibited from criticizing the work of Taliban officials, and filming, video interviews, and the publication of women’s voices have been prohibited from the media.

Also, it is forbidden to work with the media that have been declared “forbidden” by the Taliban, and in Helmand province, the publication of women’s voices in the local media is completely prohibited. Orders have also been issued to the media to refrain from using “foreign terms”, which refers to the use of “
“Persian words” for university and college. Prohibiting photography and filming in official and informal meetings of local Taliban officials in Kandahar, and banning girls from making phone calls to radios and televisions in Khost province are among the other restrictions imposed by the Taliban on domestic media in Afghanistan.

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ICC issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Gallant on war Crimes charges

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, citing war crimes in Gaza.

Despite sanctions and threats from Israel and the United States, the ICC’s decision was based on overwhelming evidence of war crimes and crimes against humanity committed against Palestinians. Among the charges, Netanyahu and Gallant were accused of using starvation as a weapon, with the court stating these allegations are founded on “reasonable grounds.”

Israel reportedly employed its intelligence agency, the Mossad, to spy on, hack, pressure, defame, and allegedly threaten senior ICC officials in an effort to obstruct investigations. Although these efforts were partially exposed through the international press and statements from ICC staff, they failed to deter the Court’s proceedings.

The ICC also clarified that it is undeterred by Israel’s non-recognition of the Court’s authority or its rulings.

Additionally, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masr on related charges.

While this ruling may not immediately halt Israeli military actions in Gaza or reduce U.S. support for Israel, it is likely to deepen divisions among European nations over their stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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