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Israel’s attack on Isfahan signals a change in strategy

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The drone attack on the Iranian military facility in Isfahan signals a significant shift in Israel’s strategy to contain Iran. Washington, which now prioritizes the Asia-Pacific region but worries that China and Russia may fill the vacuum left in the Middle East, has given its implicit approval to this shift.

Iran officially blamed Israel for the January 28 drone attack on a military facility in Isfahan. Early investigations suggest that the Israeli regime was responsible for this drone attack, Said Iravani, Iran’s Permanent Representative to the UN, wrote in a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. ‘Iran reserves its legitimate and inherent right to defend its national security and respond resolutely to any threats or wrongful actions by the Israeli regime, wherever and whenever deemed necessary,’ the letter said.

What is known about the attack?

  • Iranian state-run news agency announced that micro-drones hit an advanced weapons-production facility of the Iranian Ministry of Defense on the night of January 28.
  • On January 29, The WSJ wrote that the drone attack was carried out by Israel, based on unnamed US officials and people familiar with the operation.
  • “Washington had no hand in the Isfahan attack,” Israeli public broadcaster KAN quoted an unnamed US official.
  • “We don’t have a comment on these reports,” an Israeli army spokesman told Anadolu Agency.
  • According to “Nournews,” a news outlet with close ties to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, the equipment used in the attack was transferred into Iran with the help of separationist Kurdish groups based in Iraq’s northern region under orders by a foreign security service.

Israel’s shift in strategy

Israel’s actions have so far followed a plan that prioritizes combating Iran’s nuclear program and extra-Iran militia groups. Israel’s killings of scientists working for Tehran’s nuclear program and strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities were all part of this overarching strategy. Second, Israel launched aerial attacks on Iranian militias, Tehran-backed armed groups, and ammunition shipments. At this point, it is important to stress that Russia has “overlooked” the air strikes against the “Iran-backed militias” in Syria. This implicit agreement with Russia knowingly made Tel Aviv reluctant to provide strategic weapons to Ukraine until yesterday.

By adding a third pillar, Israel has expanded its plan with the Isfahan strike: targeting Iran’s missile and UAV technology directly on Iranian soil.

The reason behind the shift

So why did Israel need this shift in strategy, and what is its purpose?

First off, the Tel Aviv government views Iran’s nuclear arsenal as an existential danger. Therefore, from the very beginning, Israel has opposed the Democrats-led United States, sitting at the table with Iran. Tel Aviv advocates for a continuation of the “hawkish” approach to Iran that the Trump administration has taken. Coming at a time when nuclear talks were hopeless, this strike conveys that Israel does not hesitate to engage in a harder fight with Tehran. This not only shows the politically discordant United States how determined Tel Aviv is in terms of Iran but also paves the way for “normalization” with Arab countries suffering from the “Iran threat.” Moreover, by the “external enemy,” Israel also makes an effort to assuage concerns voiced about “extreme” actions that provoked a backlash among Israelis, such as the judicial reform of the extreme right-wing government. As a matter of fact, both the conflict that flared up due to Israel’s hardened policy against the Palestinians in the West Bank for a while and the attack in Isfahan have already overshadowed the protests against the government.

Timing is remarkable

  • Just one day after the conclusion of the “Juniper Oak” exercise, billed as the “most important joint military exercise ever” of the United States and Israel, and allegedly practicing the attack plan, the strike on Iran supposedly went into effect.
  • White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was in Tel Aviv 10 days before the strike. Furthermore, a “surprise” strike occurred while CIA chief William Burns was in Israel. It is also remarkable that the highest-profile visit from the United States to Israel (the US Secretary of State) since Netanyahu came to power happened only three days after the attack.

Even if the United States did not have a direct role in the attack’s planning or organization, all these “coincidences” indicate that it had the knowledge and consent.

The timing of the strike for Iran also gives clues about Israel’s “political calculations.”

  • Criticism is growing, particularly in Europe, due to the demonstrations that began following the killing of Mahsa Amini, the method by which these rallies were crushed, and the death sentences given to protestors.
  • Despite continued behind-the-scenes talks, little hope is there for a return to the Nuclear Deal.
  • Furthermore, the attack “coincided” with the Atlantic reaction on the grounds that Tehran provided drones to Russia in the Ukraine War.
  • It should also be noted that Tel Aviv, chastised for not providing high-tech weaponry to Ukraine before the strike, audibly stated that it was considering supplying these weapons to Kyiv shortly after the attack.

In summary, Israel undoubtedly made a political “maneuver” to send a message to the West by attacking Tehran’s missile and UAV manufacturing facility, criticized for providing drones to Russia. This move demonstrates that Israel is unafraid to state its position clearly in the ongoing war between China, Russia, and the US over the sphere of influence in the Middle East.

How will Iran respond?

Iran has repeatedly declared that it will retaliate against the Israeli attack on Isfahan. Tehran’s reprisal for earlier assaults was either drone strikes on Israeli warships or coordinated cyberattacks against Israeli infrastructure. Last year, Iran also launched a ballistic-missile attack on an allegedly Israeli facility in Erbil. Tehran possibly avoids starting a new front while paying the costs of these low-intensity wars and conflicts and the enormous cost of internal demonstrations and economic sanctions. Tehran will most likely prefer to continue its low-intense fight with Tel Aviv on existing fronts.

However, Iran’s possibility of getting rid of the entrapment with a solution that Israel will not be pleased with is likely, albeit low. Iran has a bargaining chip in the nuclear negotiations: the drones exported to Russia. Why? Because Russia, not Iran, is the top priority for the United States and Europe. In addition, the sooner Europe, in need of Russian gas, agrees with Iran, the quicker it will have the opportunity to create another alternative to Russian gas.

US interest

Having been focused on the Asia-Pacific region for some time and gotten ready to struggle with China, the Biden administration is not keen on escalating tensions in the Middle East, especially not those that include Israel. However, Washington is worried that China and Russia will step in to fill the vacuum in the region. The old allies of the US in the Middle East are attempting to cultivate ties with its “enemies,” China and Russia, out of concern that they will be left vulnerable without the US security cover. On the other hand, these allies are forming new coalitions against Iran, their “foe” in the region. Under these circumstances, the United States seems to implicitly approve Israel’s new policy of raising tension against Iran, expecting Israel not to be drawn into a new adventure. It remains unknown which guarantees Israel gave to the US to get this approval. However, soon after the Isfahan strike, Netanyahu’s declaration on CNN that they may provide weapons to Ukraine offers insights into the nature of the such guarantee. Nevertheless, it is too soon to predict whether Israel would really supply weapons to Ukraine despite Russia. However, it is evident that the period has just begun in which Israel will make its name in the region through extremely “hawkish” policies.

 

Asia

Iran-Israel war: Why US discusses regional conflict with Pakistan

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US President Donald Trump and Pakistan’s Army Chief General Asim Munir held a special and important meeting during a time when tensions are rising in the Asian region. The meeting was held on Trump’s invitation and was not open to the media. However, both sides have released official statements afterward, which states that the main topics were discussed

The meeting focused on the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, Pakistan–India relations, especially the Kashmir issue, the situation in Afghanistan and future US–Pakistan cooperation.

Pakistan has recently improved its strategic position in the region. It has shown strong ties with China and is the only South Asian country openly supporting Iran in its conflict with Israel. Meanwhile, Pakistan remains an important player in Afghanistan.

Why the Pakistani Army Chief was invited to the US?

Although Pakistan has an elected civilian government, important decisions—especially related to foreign affairs and security—are often handled by the military. That’s why General Asim Munir was invited to meet Trump instead of the Prime Minister, General Munir’s influence has grown recently. After tensions with India, he was given the title of Field Marshal. His meeting with Trump is seen as a sign of his importance in both Pakistani and international politics.

According to the Pakistan Army’s media wing (ISPR): General Munir thanked President Trump for helping to ease recent tensions between Pakistan and India. Trump praised Pakistan’s role in fighting terrorism. Both agreed to work together in the future, especially in: Trade, Technology Minerals and energy Artificial intelligence Crypto currency and regional peace efforts as well.

President Trump also appreciated General Munir’s leadership during difficult times. Munir invited Trump to visit Pakistan, and Trump reportedly accepted the offer in principle.

Why US former peace envoy to Afghanistan, Khalilzad is not trusting Pakistan’s army chief

Former U.S. diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad criticized the meeting. He said General Munir cannot be trusted and reminded the U.S. that Pakistan has supported groups that harmed American soldiers in the past. According to Khalilzad, General Munir may be trying to get U.S. support for his interests in Afghanistan, which he believes could be risky for America.

Though no official list of US demands was made public, reports suggest a meeting was held in Saudi Arabia earlier, where American officials spoke with top Pakistani leaders. During that meeting, the U.S. reportedly made four key requests:  Pakistan should help the U.S. in counterterrorism operations when needed. Pakistan should slowly reduce its relations with China. Pakistan should recognize Israel after Saudi Arabia does. If the U.S. attacks Iran, Pakistan should support the U.S. instead of staying neutral.

These demands are similar to earlier U.S.–Pakistan arrangements during the Cold War and the War on Terror.

What could be expected in the future?

This meeting could mark the beginning of a new phase in US–Pakistan relations. In the past, Pakistan helped the U.S. during the Soviet-Afghan War and after 9/11. Now, with tensions involving Iran, India, and Afghanistan—and China expanding its role—the U.S. may again be looking to Pakistan as a key partner in the region.

Time will tell whether this leads to a long-term partnership or just another temporary agreement based on short-term goals.

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Iran retaliates with missile barrage after Israel strikes Arak nuclear facility

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Israel’s overnight attacks targeted the Arak nuclear facility, prompting a severe retaliatory response from Iran. Missiles fired at Tel Aviv and Beersheba were aimed at the Israeli army’s command and intelligence headquarters. Prime Minister Netanyahu has ordered an escalation of attacks against Iran.

The week-long escalating tension between Israel and Iran reached a new level on Thursday morning with mutual attacks. The Israeli army announced it had conducted airstrikes on several targets in Iran, including the Arak nuclear facility. In retaliation, Iran launched nearly 30 missiles at various regions, primarily targeting Tel Aviv and the southern city of Beersheba.

The Israeli army confirmed it had attacked Iran’s Arak Heavy Water Nuclear Facility (Shahid Khandab Research Reactor) last night. Military officials claimed the facility housed equipment that could accelerate the development of nuclear weapons.

However, a written statement from the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran’s Information Center stated, “There were no casualties or injuries in the attack. Thanks to pre-emptive security measures, there is no risk or harm to the public in the area surrounding the facility.” Iranian state television also reported that there was no nuclear leakage at the site.

Retaliation at first light

Iran’s retaliation for these attacks came in the morning. More than 20 missiles fired from Iran directly hit several locations around the capital, Tel Aviv, and in the southern Negev region.

Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper reported that air defense systems were attempting to intercept the missiles launched from Iran. The report noted that over 20 missiles were fired, striking at least four locations in the country’s central and southern regions.

In the central region, missiles reportedly struck buildings directly in Tel Aviv, Ramat Gan, and Holon. In the south, a missile aimed at Beersheba was alleged to have hit Soroka Hospital.

Israel’s Magen David Adom emergency service stated that they received reports of direct hits during the attacks around 7:10 AM and had dispatched teams to the areas. A written statement from Magen David Adom reported that 65 people were injured in Iran’s morning retaliatory missile strike, with three in serious condition. The statement added that two others were moderately injured, while the rest sustained injuries from shrapnel, the blast’s impact, or while running to shelters.

Meanwhile, the Israeli army estimated that Iran had fired around 30 missiles in its morning retaliation.

A statement from the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs alleged that Iranian missiles had struck Soroka Hospital in the southern city of Beersheba. It is known that Israeli soldiers wounded in Gaza are treated at Soroka Hospital.

According to a report by the semi-official Tasnim News Agency, which is close to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s retaliatory attack this morning targeted the Israeli army’s command and intelligence headquarters. The report claimed that Israeli media was attempting to portray the location as a “hospital,” but the actual targets were the Israel Defense Forces’ command and intelligence (IDF C4I) headquarters next to the hospital and an army intelligence camp in the Gav-Yam Technology Park. The report also stated that the targeted structures housed thousands of military personnel, digital command systems, and cyber operations systems belonging to the Israeli army.

Furthermore, according to Lebanon-based Al Mayadeen, Soroka Hospital, located between two military bases, was evacuated following the attack due to a suspected hazardous material leak.

Netanyahu orders an ‘increase in attacks’

Following Iran’s morning retaliation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israeli army to intensify its attacks on Iran. In a written statement, Netanyahu threatened that Iranian officials would “pay a price.”

Defense Minister Yisrael Katz also asserted on his social media account that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would “pay the price” for the morning’s retaliation.

In his first televised address since Friday, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, defied President Trump’s call for Iran’s surrender. “Any US military intervention will cause absolutely irreversible damage,” he said, adding, “The Iranian people will not surrender.”

While Iran’s retaliation was underway, Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi, visited a missile base belonging to the IRGC Aerospace Force. “We will continue our attacks relentlessly against all types of targets belonging to the Zionist occupying regime. We see no obstacles before us,” Mousavi declared.

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Iran warns of harsh response if US enters war

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As mutual attacks between Iran and Israel, which began on June 13, continue to escalate tensions in the region, the US is signaling its potential involvement in the war. The Iranian government has threatened the US with a harsh response in such a scenario.

Ambassador Ali Bahreyni, Iran’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Office at Geneva, stated, “If at any point we conclude that the US is directly involved in attacks against Iran, we will begin to respond to the US.”

Bahreyni met with journalists from the Association of Accredited Correspondents at the United Nations (ACANU) in Geneva to discuss the conflict that started with Israel’s attacks on Iran.

Recalling that the Israeli regime has been conducting attacks on Iran since June 13, Bahreyni remarked, “This is Israeli aggression targeting civilians, women, children, civilian infrastructure, and even our country’s peaceful nuclear facilities. During these attacks, hundreds of innocent people, including many children and women, have been killed. There is a great danger surrounding our peaceful nuclear facilities, not only in Iran but also due to the potential exposure of people in our region to dangerous leaks.”

Bahreyni criticized the financial, logistical, and military support provided to Israel by the US and many other Western countries.

Stating that Israel attacked Iran without provocation, Bahreyni said, “During these attacks, Israel violated the principles of discrimination, proportionality, and public notification by targeting civilians. Israel has violated all norms of international law and human rights. Iran is determined to respond to Israeli attacks. We will show no doubt or hesitation in defending our people, our security, and our territory. We will respond very seriously and forcefully. This is what we are doing now. We cannot focus on anything other than defending ourselves.”

Bahreyni pointed out that the US is complicit in Israel’s actions, adding, “Without the US, Israel is nothing. Whatever Israel does, it does with the military and intelligence support of the US. We will monitor the actions of the US. If at any point we conclude that the US is directly involved in attacks against Iran, we will begin to respond to the US.”

Noting that the UN Security Council and other international organizations have failed to stop the crimes committed by Israel during this process, Bahreyni said that these international bodies have lost their reason for existence.

Bahreyni emphasized that Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful.

‘If our red lines are crossed, there will be a response’

In response to a question from Anadolu Agency about whether he views US President Donald Trump’s recent statements on the tensions as an intervention, Bahreyni replied:

“Yes, we are monitoring the statements of US officials, including the US President. We see these as irresponsible attitudes toward the challenges facing Iran, and we believe that US policy toward Iran has been hostile for the last 40 years. This is not new. US threats against Iran are not new. It is clear that the US has a hostile attitude toward Iran. Iran has previously stood against the arrogant policies of the US. The statements made by Trump are completely unbalanced. We cannot ignore these statements.”

Bahreyni stated that Iran has red lines and will respond if they are crossed.

In a large-scale air operation launched by Israel last Friday, critical centers of Iran’s nuclear program and high-ranking military officials were targeted. Iranian media reports that thousands of people have been evacuated from the capital, Tehran, and other major cities following the attacks.

Although the US has not yet carried out a direct attack, it is providing indirect defensive support, such as destroying missiles aimed at Israel in the air. The Pentagon announced that it has sent additional fighter jets and air power reinforcements to the region.

Pezeshkian emphasizes national unity

While the US raises the stakes against Iran to compel it to comply with its nuclear demands, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in a speech at a cabinet meeting, said that the country’s internal solidarity is the greatest guarantee against external threats. According to a statement published on the presidential website, Pezeshkian said:

“If the people are with us, no problem can threaten the country. All steps must be taken to preserve national unity.”

Pezeshkian also thanked the many countries, especially neighboring ones, that sent messages of support to Iran during the Israeli attacks. At the end of the meeting, it was requested that security measures be kept at the maximum level and that all state officials act in accordance with the instructions of the relevant authorities.

People take to the streets in Tehran

Despite Israel’s attacks and US threats, large crowds gathered in Palestine Square in Tehran to support the country’s leadership.

Citizens who gathered in Palestine Square, located near the residence of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, carried posters of Khamenei and Iranian flags and chanted slogans against Israel and the US.

It was noteworthy that some families brought their children to the demonstration, despite US President Donald Trump’s threat to “evacuate Tehran.” Some police and soldiers were also seen participating in the demonstrations.

Khamenei: No negotiations with Zionists

Meanwhile, Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated in a post on his X account that they will continue to respond to Israel’s attacks and will never negotiate with them: “The terrorist Zionist regime must be fought with determination. We will never negotiate with the Zionists.”

Damage to nuclear facilities is limited

Statements were also made regarding Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, which has been a direct target of the conflict. Mohammad Eslami, the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said in an interview on state television, “The condition of the nuclear facilities is good. The morale of the employees is high.”

Organization spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi had previously stated that minor damage occurred after the attack on the Fordow Nuclear Facility in the city of Qom, but no nuclear leak occurred. The Natanz Nuclear Facility in Isfahan was more affected by the attack, but it was announced that the nuclear contamination there did not spread outside the facility.

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