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MIDDLE EAST

Israel’s attack on Isfahan signals a change in strategy

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The drone attack on the Iranian military facility in Isfahan signals a significant shift in Israel’s strategy to contain Iran. Washington, which now prioritizes the Asia-Pacific region but worries that China and Russia may fill the vacuum left in the Middle East, has given its implicit approval to this shift.

Iran officially blamed Israel for the January 28 drone attack on a military facility in Isfahan. Early investigations suggest that the Israeli regime was responsible for this drone attack, Said Iravani, Iran’s Permanent Representative to the UN, wrote in a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. ‘Iran reserves its legitimate and inherent right to defend its national security and respond resolutely to any threats or wrongful actions by the Israeli regime, wherever and whenever deemed necessary,’ the letter said.

What is known about the attack?

  • Iranian state-run news agency announced that micro-drones hit an advanced weapons-production facility of the Iranian Ministry of Defense on the night of January 28.
  • On January 29, The WSJ wrote that the drone attack was carried out by Israel, based on unnamed US officials and people familiar with the operation.
  • “Washington had no hand in the Isfahan attack,” Israeli public broadcaster KAN quoted an unnamed US official.
  • “We don’t have a comment on these reports,” an Israeli army spokesman told Anadolu Agency.
  • According to “Nournews,” a news outlet with close ties to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, the equipment used in the attack was transferred into Iran with the help of separationist Kurdish groups based in Iraq’s northern region under orders by a foreign security service.

Israel’s shift in strategy

Israel’s actions have so far followed a plan that prioritizes combating Iran’s nuclear program and extra-Iran militia groups. Israel’s killings of scientists working for Tehran’s nuclear program and strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities were all part of this overarching strategy. Second, Israel launched aerial attacks on Iranian militias, Tehran-backed armed groups, and ammunition shipments. At this point, it is important to stress that Russia has “overlooked” the air strikes against the “Iran-backed militias” in Syria. This implicit agreement with Russia knowingly made Tel Aviv reluctant to provide strategic weapons to Ukraine until yesterday.

By adding a third pillar, Israel has expanded its plan with the Isfahan strike: targeting Iran’s missile and UAV technology directly on Iranian soil.

The reason behind the shift

So why did Israel need this shift in strategy, and what is its purpose?

First off, the Tel Aviv government views Iran’s nuclear arsenal as an existential danger. Therefore, from the very beginning, Israel has opposed the Democrats-led United States, sitting at the table with Iran. Tel Aviv advocates for a continuation of the “hawkish” approach to Iran that the Trump administration has taken. Coming at a time when nuclear talks were hopeless, this strike conveys that Israel does not hesitate to engage in a harder fight with Tehran. This not only shows the politically discordant United States how determined Tel Aviv is in terms of Iran but also paves the way for “normalization” with Arab countries suffering from the “Iran threat.” Moreover, by the “external enemy,” Israel also makes an effort to assuage concerns voiced about “extreme” actions that provoked a backlash among Israelis, such as the judicial reform of the extreme right-wing government. As a matter of fact, both the conflict that flared up due to Israel’s hardened policy against the Palestinians in the West Bank for a while and the attack in Isfahan have already overshadowed the protests against the government.

Timing is remarkable

  • Just one day after the conclusion of the “Juniper Oak” exercise, billed as the “most important joint military exercise ever” of the United States and Israel, and allegedly practicing the attack plan, the strike on Iran supposedly went into effect.
  • White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was in Tel Aviv 10 days before the strike. Furthermore, a “surprise” strike occurred while CIA chief William Burns was in Israel. It is also remarkable that the highest-profile visit from the United States to Israel (the US Secretary of State) since Netanyahu came to power happened only three days after the attack.

Even if the United States did not have a direct role in the attack’s planning or organization, all these “coincidences” indicate that it had the knowledge and consent.

The timing of the strike for Iran also gives clues about Israel’s “political calculations.”

  • Criticism is growing, particularly in Europe, due to the demonstrations that began following the killing of Mahsa Amini, the method by which these rallies were crushed, and the death sentences given to protestors.
  • Despite continued behind-the-scenes talks, little hope is there for a return to the Nuclear Deal.
  • Furthermore, the attack “coincided” with the Atlantic reaction on the grounds that Tehran provided drones to Russia in the Ukraine War.
  • It should also be noted that Tel Aviv, chastised for not providing high-tech weaponry to Ukraine before the strike, audibly stated that it was considering supplying these weapons to Kyiv shortly after the attack.

In summary, Israel undoubtedly made a political “maneuver” to send a message to the West by attacking Tehran’s missile and UAV manufacturing facility, criticized for providing drones to Russia. This move demonstrates that Israel is unafraid to state its position clearly in the ongoing war between China, Russia, and the US over the sphere of influence in the Middle East.

How will Iran respond?

Iran has repeatedly declared that it will retaliate against the Israeli attack on Isfahan. Tehran’s reprisal for earlier assaults was either drone strikes on Israeli warships or coordinated cyberattacks against Israeli infrastructure. Last year, Iran also launched a ballistic-missile attack on an allegedly Israeli facility in Erbil. Tehran possibly avoids starting a new front while paying the costs of these low-intensity wars and conflicts and the enormous cost of internal demonstrations and economic sanctions. Tehran will most likely prefer to continue its low-intense fight with Tel Aviv on existing fronts.

However, Iran’s possibility of getting rid of the entrapment with a solution that Israel will not be pleased with is likely, albeit low. Iran has a bargaining chip in the nuclear negotiations: the drones exported to Russia. Why? Because Russia, not Iran, is the top priority for the United States and Europe. In addition, the sooner Europe, in need of Russian gas, agrees with Iran, the quicker it will have the opportunity to create another alternative to Russian gas.

US interest

Having been focused on the Asia-Pacific region for some time and gotten ready to struggle with China, the Biden administration is not keen on escalating tensions in the Middle East, especially not those that include Israel. However, Washington is worried that China and Russia will step in to fill the vacuum in the region. The old allies of the US in the Middle East are attempting to cultivate ties with its “enemies,” China and Russia, out of concern that they will be left vulnerable without the US security cover. On the other hand, these allies are forming new coalitions against Iran, their “foe” in the region. Under these circumstances, the United States seems to implicitly approve Israel’s new policy of raising tension against Iran, expecting Israel not to be drawn into a new adventure. It remains unknown which guarantees Israel gave to the US to get this approval. However, soon after the Isfahan strike, Netanyahu’s declaration on CNN that they may provide weapons to Ukraine offers insights into the nature of the such guarantee. Nevertheless, it is too soon to predict whether Israel would really supply weapons to Ukraine despite Russia. However, it is evident that the period has just begun in which Israel will make its name in the region through extremely “hawkish” policies.

 

MIDDLE EAST

Gaza ceasefire: The bell of war ringing again

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The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas did not last long, and eventually the bell for war had sounded again. According to media reports, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza Strip as a result of Israeli airstrikes. Israeli officials also warned that the gates of hell had opened on Gaza. The United States also announced that it had responded positively to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s request to resume the war.

The question: Why has the Gaza war resumed?

First: These days, US President Donald Trump has been feverishly pushing for talks with Iran, which is not pleasing to the Israeli side. Trump has repeatedly emphasized the need to negotiate with Iran before pursuing other options.

More importantly, he recently sent a letter addressed to the Iranian Leader and also informed the media. The content of the letter is also focused on starting negotiations with Iran, although it is spoken from a position of power. Furthermore, Adam Boehler, Trump’s representative for Israeli hostage affairs, met with the Hamas leadership in Doha, the capital of Qatar, and evaluated the meeting as constructive, while in response to Tel Aviv’s criticism, he described Hamas members as good people.

Of course, it was recently claimed that he was removed from his position. Now, in order to prevent Trump and Iran from entering the negotiating line and for the US to avoid direct talks with Hamas, the Israeli side has wanted to make the situation critical so that the atmosphere for consultations remains unfavorable. Furthermore, by intensifying the attacks, Netanyahu wants to force Hamas to accept conditions that the group has so far refused to accept.

Second: In the meantime, Trump also has specific goals that he is seeking to achieve: forcing Iran to negotiate. Trump has repeatedly emphasized establishing peace; but from the position of exercising power, using the tools of sanctions and military threats. The deadly airstrikes by the US military on Yemeni Houthi positions and the hints and insinuations of Trump and his entourage towards Iran are also intended to force Tehran to agree to negotiations, and that is, negotiations whose terms and conditions are determined by the American side.

Trump’s green light to resume the Gaza war could also be in this direction, because if the ceasefire goes ahead as included in the agreement, the American and Israeli sides believe that Iran and the so-called “axis of resistance” will declare themselves victorious, and in that case Tehran will either refuse to negotiate or will try to enter the arena from a strong position.

Third: It is true that Trump signed the plan to resume the war, but he will not support the continuation of the war and its spread, for three reasons:

1- it would contradict the slogans that Trump has constantly chanted to end wars. More importantly, since he values ​​the principle of “cost-benefit” so much, his support for a long and consequential war would harm the achievement of the larger goals he has in mind.

Therefore, it supports what Netanyahu wants to a certain extent, which is natural; but it seems unlikely that the previous US administration would want to continuously pump advanced weapons and military equipment into Israel for more than a year.

2- Second, Trump’s support for a long war that results in the deaths of Palestinian civilians could undermine the prospects for expanding the Abraham Accords, an agreement that Trump holds in high regard and cites as the most important achievement of her first administration.

Arab governments also have a sense of dignity and prestige and will not join this treaty for free, especially Saudi Arabia. Therefore, Trump does not want the scope of this treaty to remain narrow.

3- If Trump agrees to support a large-scale and high-consequence war in Gaza, America will be stuck in the Middle East, which will sideline the rest of the White House’s priorities: Ending the war in Ukraine, a trade war with China, Canada, Europe, etc. When the US is once again involved in the Gaza conflict, Russia will become bolder and, instead of giving in to Trump’s demand to sign a ceasefire agreement, will insist on continuing the war to occupy more territory in Ukraine. The trade war with China and Europe also requires that Trump be comfortable with the Middle East.

4- Netanyahu’s cabinet is grappling with numerous internal problems. For example, Internal Security Minister Ben-Governor resigned and left the government in response to accepting the first phase of the ceasefire. Smotrich, another Netanyahu ally, has also warned that he will resign in response to accepting the second phase, which would lead to the collapse of the cabinet.

Apart from that, the risk of launching a comprehensive investigation to clarify the dimensions of the October 7 attack is also prominent, which is possible in the absence of war conditions. In recent days, a serious disagreement between Netanyahu and Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar has flared up, leading to the latter’s dismissal. This dismissal is said to be related to the risk of leaking documents that could jeopardize Netanyahu’s political life.

Now, the simple and inexpensive way to keep the government going and quell internal disputes is to resume the war with Hamas, so that the opposing and supporting view of the external enemy is fixed. In the meantime, the protests of the families of the hostages and the opposition forces are important as a deterrent; but not to the extent of the internal conflict in the cabinet, the disclosure of documents and the preparation of the investigation file into the October 7 attack, which could put an end to the life of the Netanyahu government.

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Israeli army expands ground invasion in Gaza

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The Israeli army is expanding its ground invasion in Gaza after resuming attacks and breaking the ceasefire. The Israeli army, which initially entered the Netzarim Corridor, bisecting Gaza along a north-south axis, has announced the commencement of a ground invasion in the north. In response to Israel’s intensified attacks, Hamas targeted Tel Aviv for the first time in five months.

In a statement, the Israeli army announced the start of ground operations in the northern Gaza Strip, adding that the operations are being conducted jointly with Shin Bet, its internal intelligence agency.

Ground operations have reportedly begun off the coast of the Beit Lahia region in the northern Gaza Strip, preceded by aerial targeting of Hamas sites in the area.

The statement noted that attacks on Gaza continued throughout the night, purportedly targeting military structures and weapons.

The statement also affirmed that attacks on the Gaza Strip are ongoing.

Conversely, it is anticipated that Israel will conduct even more intensive attacks in Gaza than its previous operations, which resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians.

The Walla news site reported that the Israeli army used the ceasefire to reinforce its strength and replenish its arsenal.

The report stated that Israel has increased the capability of its armored vehicles and added new ones to its inventory. It also assessed that the new Chief of General Staff, Eyal Zamir, with the support of the US, will use more firepower and be more aggressive.

After breaking the ceasefire with Hamas and resuming airstrikes, the Israeli army announced the resumption of its ground invasion in the Netzarim Corridor, which divides Gaza along a north-south axis.

The Israeli army, which withdrew from the Netzarim Corridor on February 9 as part of a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement, has reoccupied the corridor. It has also demanded that Palestinians evacuate from certain areas, announcing that the army is conducting pinpoint strikes.

While Salahaddin Street is closed, Palestinians traveling along the north-south axis of Gaza can use Rashid Street on the coast, it was noted.

Meanwhile, the Israeli army is expanding its occupation in the buffer zone around the Gaza Strip, continuing its ground invasion in the areas off Beit Lahia and Khan Yunis.

Hamas’s military wing, the Kassam Brigades, announced that it bombed Tel Aviv with M90 rockets in response to “the Zionist massacres against civilians.”

The Israeli army also announced that three long-range rockets were fired from the southern Gaza Strip towards Tel Aviv, the capital of Israel. According to the statement, one of the rockets was intercepted by air defense systems, while the other two hit open areas. This marks the first time Hamas has targeted Tel Aviv since October 7, 2024.

Furthermore, Hamas announced that negotiations with mediators are ongoing to halt Israeli attacks and force Tel Aviv to implement the agreed-upon ceasefire agreement.

Hamas Spokesman Abdullatif al-Kanu stated in a written statement that they are committed to the ceasefire agreement and are “working with mediators to save the Palestinian people from the war and to ensure the withdrawal of the occupiers from Gaza.”

Kanu added, “The blockade, starvation, and genocide being carried out against Gaza require the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to take immediate action.”

Egyptian Foreign Minister Bedr Abdulati and Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdurrahman Al Sani also discussed the situation in Gaza in a telephone conversation.

At least 710 people have died and more than 900 have been injured in the attacks launched by the Israeli army on the Gaza Strip since the morning of March 18.

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Qatar allegedly paid salary of Netanyahu’s spokesman

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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesman, Eliezer Feldstein, who is in custody in the “leaking of secret documents” case and is among the suspects in the “Qatargate” scandal, was revealed to have received money from US consultant Jay Potlik, who carries out lobbying activities for Qatar through an Israeli businessman.

Israeli state television KAN broadcast a voice recording in which Israeli businessman Gil Birger said that he transferred the money he received from US lobbyist Jay Potlik, who works on behalf of Qatar, to Netanyahu’s advisor Feldstein.

According to these voice recordings, US consultant Jay Potlik, who carries out lobbying activities on behalf of the Qatari government, gave the money to an Israeli businessman named Gil Birger, and Birger transferred it to Feldstein while he was working as Netanyahu’s spokesman.

It was recorded that Feldstein, who did not receive a salary because he did not go through a security investigation despite being defined as a spokesman during his time in the Prime Ministry, received his salary from Birger’s company with the money coming from Qatar.

After the recording was published, Feldstein’s lawyers Oded Saburai and Sion Hausman admitted that their client received money from an Israeli businessman who was claimed to be mediating between Qatar and Israel. However, they claimed that he did not know that this money came from Qatar.

The lawyers claimed that this method was a temporary and partial solution produced for Feldstein, who could not receive a salary from the Prime Ministry, to receive his money, and that Feldstein did not know that it was related to Qatar, saying, “He did not transfer information to Qatar and never received money from them.”

On the other hand, hours after the voice recordings were published, the police detained two suspects last night as part of the ongoing investigation. However, it is not yet known what the suspects are accused of, as there is a publication ban on the case.

Apart from the Qatargate scandal, Feldstein is accused of endangering national security by leaking secret military documents. Prosecutors claim that Feldstein tried to manipulate public opinion by leaking the documents.

On the other hand, it is also alleged that Netanyahu’s former advisors, Jonatan Urich and Yisrael Einhorn, carried out public relations work in favor of Qatar before the 2022 World Cup. While the three names at the center of the allegations deny the accusations, Netanyahu’s office also denied the allegations.

Israeli Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara ordered the police and domestic intelligence unit Shin Bet to launch an investigation to investigate these allegations at the end of February. Netanyahu’s announcement that he would dismiss Shin Bet President Ronen Bar at the weekend drew the reaction of the opposition and non-governmental organizations. The opposition says that Netanyahu is trying to prevent the investigation with this decision.

Channel 13 previously reported that hundreds of thousands of dollars were transferred from Qatar to Netanyahu’s advisors. According to the news, the large amount of money coming from Qatar surprised the authorities conducting the investigation.

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