America
Joint warning from Pentagon and Wall Street: ‘Only five years left for Western survival’
The Reagan National Defense Forum held in California became the scene of critical discussions shaping Washington’s new strategic era.
At the center of the forum were the massive increase in China’s military production capacity, the slowness of the American bureaucracy, and strategic uncertainties in conflict zones ranging from Ukraine to Venezuela.
Warnings from Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon revealed that the US is in search of a fundamental “paradigm shift” in its defense understanding.
The focus of the discussions was the question of how to secure the speed and resources necessary for the US to maintain its technological superiority.
Declaration of war against bureaucracy
Making one of the forum’s most notable statements, OMB Director Russ Vought emphasized that the biggest obstacle facing the Pentagon and the White House is not a lack of resources, but rather time and bureaucracy.
Pointing out that China’s shipbuilding capacity is 200 times that of the US, Vought announced that radical steps would be taken to alter the current trajectory.
Vought stated, “Just giving an extra billion dollars doesn’t get you a ship delivered any earlier. We have to, in his words, take a bulldozer to the bureaucracy.”
Noting that the administration could use the “budget reconciliation” method to bypass the 60-vote threshold in the Senate to increase defense spending, Vought argued that time is more valuable than political capital.
Vought used the expressions, “Political capital is not our scarcest resource; you can always build that. Time is our scarcest resource.”
The crisis in shipbuilding was one of the forum’s main agenda items. Vought reminded the audience that only 2% of US ship production is domestically linked, whereas China holds 74% of the global market.
Stating that they plan to utilize the capital and expertise of allies like South Korea to address this imbalance, Vought said, “It is my job to change the current trajectory.”
Critical five-year window for the West’s future
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan and a heavyweight in the financial world, announced that they have launched a $1.5 trillion investment initiative directed at the defense industry.
Dimon emphasized that the Ukraine war has shattered illusions regarding Western security and that maintaining American military superiority is no longer a choice, but a necessity.
Issuing stern warnings about the risk of Europe fragmenting, Dimon said, “If we were to write a book about how the West was lost, it would be about how we didn’t do our job right here and allowed Europe to fracture.”
Giving a clear answer to the question of how much time remains to take necessary measures, Dimon said, “We have five years,” and added: “Five years means you have to start doing the right thing today.”
RTX CEO Chris Calio also drew attention to the fragility in the supply chain, stating that the Ukraine war has exposed gaps in production capacity.
Calio said, “There were two-year production gaps in systems like Patriot. Multi-year gaps had formed for Javelin,” adding that the industry needs to scale rapidly.
“Hellscape” strategy in the artificial intelligence race
Indo-Pacific Command Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo explained that the character of war is changing and that artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and data are at the center of this change.
Paparo stated that deterrence against China involves making an attack costly for the enemy.
Saying, “The nature of war never changes, but there are three meta-trends affecting its character,” Paparo listed these as information operations, the proliferation of drone warfare, and precision strike capability.
The Commander emphasized that the US goal is to ensure “decision superiority,” stating, “I want to use artificial intelligence to blind, deceive, and destroy the enemy’s ability to see and perceive.”
Technology investor Joe Lonsdale, who participated in the artificial intelligence panel, complained about regulatory hurdles in the US.
Noting that there are thousands of bills waiting in states to regulate artificial intelligence, Lonsdale warned, “If we allow all these regulations to pass, we cannot win the artificial intelligence race against China.”
The “last 10 meters” debate in the Ukraine war
The future of the war in Ukraine was one of the forum’s most heated topics of discussion. Retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, who plays an active role in negotiation processes, implied that the conflict is close to ending, assessing that “The last 10 meters to the objective are always the hardest.”
Kellogg reminded the audience that the humanitarian cost of the war has reached massive dimensions and that there is a risk of losing a generation.
However, Democratic Senator Chris Coons argued that any concession given to Putin would be dangerous. Coons used the expressions, “Putin is a thug and a gangster. You don’t negotiate with a gangster by saying, ‘You took my thumb, would you like my hand too?’”
Coons stated that closing the path to NATO membership for Ukraine or giving territorial concessions would send the wrong message to other authoritarian regimes like China.
Finnish Minister of Defense Antti Hakkanen emphasized that Europe needs to implement harsher economic sanctions against Russia, saying, “What will bring Putin to the table is the hard collapse of the Russian economy.”
Venezuela and “backyard” security
The prioritization of Western Hemisphere security in the new administration’s National Security Strategy brought the issues of Venezuela and the fight against drug cartels to the forefront.
Former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and Retired General Jack Keane discussed military activity in the region and possible regime change scenarios.
Stating that 25-30% of the US Navy is deployed off the coast of Venezuela, Panetta said, “If Maduro is still there after the deployment of this fleet, this is clearly a failed mission.”
General Keane emphasized that the administration is approaching the region with a comprehensive perspective and that the Maduro regime has become intertwined with the cartels. Keane said, “The President has already said he is interested in regime change because he asked Maduro to leave.”
US Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force General Dan Caine also stated, “Protecting the homeland is no longer just a term we say, it is a real thing,” indicating that the military will take action to protect its own neighborhood.
Responding to a question about whether an artificial intelligence arms race has been entered with China, Caine replied, “There is a possibility we are entering an artificial intelligence arms race.”
Technology revolution and unmanned aerial vehicles at the Pentagon
The US Army’s modernization efforts were addressed by Lockheed Martin CEO Jim Taiclet and General Randy George.
Taiclet explained how artificial intelligence is being used in operations conducted against the Houthis in the Red Sea. Stating that data from Aegis radar systems is transferred via Starlink to a center in New Jersey where it is processed to distinguish targets, Taiclet said, “It took us about a month to narrow 38 false targets down to two.”
Taiclet also mentioned a new technology that allows F-22 pilots to control drones from the cockpit. “We are doing this with a tablet you can buy from the Apple Store,” Taiclet said, explaining that a pilot can manage eight unmanned aerial vehicles (CCA) with a fingertip.
General George emphasized that the army is working to reach the “one million drones” goal and that integrating unmanned systems into units is of vital importance.
Saying, “I think the first contact will be established with drones,” George expressed that the transformation on the battlefield is inevitable.
America
Wealthy Americans drive surge in New Zealand golden visa demand
More than 700 wealthy foreign nationals have applied for New Zealand residency under the country’s “golden visa” programme over the past 14 months, compared with just 115 applications during the previous three years.
Applicants are required to invest at least NZ$5 million in local funds, companies or charitable organisations within three years.
A further 127 people have applied under a separate programme that requires an investment of NZ$10 million in passive assets such as bonds for five years.
The surge followed a relaxation of rules governing property purchases, investment requirements and the amount of time applicants must spend in the country to qualify.
According to the Financial Times (FT), the increase in applications for the right to live, work and study indefinitely in New Zealand has coincided with a period of geopolitical uncertainty that has made the country’s security and remote location increasingly attractive.
Dozens of countries around the world, from Portugal to the US, offer preferential immigration treatment in exchange for investment or, in some cases, cash payments.
Many have had mixed experiences with such schemes. Ireland, Malta and Australia have scrapped their programmes because of insufficient demand or concerns over abuse.
In New Zealand’s case, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon hopes the visas will attract more foreign investment and help reverse a “brain drain” that threatens the country’s economic growth.
Although tourists often fall in love with New Zealand and dream of moving there, many young New Zealanders leave in search of better economic opportunities.
According to Luxon, New Zealand start-ups have already begun benefiting from the policy.
“While everyone else around the world is tightening restrictions, we’ve opened the doors and our start-ups have benefited enormously from the capital flowing in, as well as from the knowledge and technical expertise these investors have brought,” he said.
Since the programme was comprehensively overhauled in April 2025, applicants from North America, Europe and Asia have committed a combined NZ$4.8 billion, through investments of either NZ$5 million or NZ$10 million each.
That figure is comparable to the NZ$14.8 billion in foreign investment recorded during the first quarter of this year.
Lachlan Nixon, co-founder of venture capital firm Motion Capital, said the programme had become “a badge of honour in Silicon Valley”.
Data show that 277 applications have come from Americans, with Californians showing particularly strong interest in obtaining New Zealand residency.
“A massive influx of capital is coming, but what really matters is the quality of the people now investing in the New Zealand economy,” Nixon said. He added that 40% of a recent NZ$27 million fundraising round for high-growth New Zealand companies came from 30 holders of “golden visas”.
According to Luxon, companies benefiting from the programme include critical minerals firm Zethos, which appointed European steel industry veteran Francesc Rubiralta to its board.
Nixon said other companies backed under the programme include seed oil protein producer Miruku and magnesium mining company Aspiring Materials.
In the mountain town of Queenstown, a preferred destination for many applicants, locals refer to billionaires such as Peter Thiel and Anthony Malkin, whose foundation owns New York’s Empire State Building, as “the secret residents on the hills”.
Most prefer to keep their wealth and presence private. Thiel’s citizenship was inadvertently revealed during a parliamentary debate, while Malkin’s presence became public after fireworks he set off on New Year’s Eve sparked grass fires.
According to Cotality, their arrival has made Queenstown New Zealand’s most expensive property market, with a median home price of NZ$1.8 million, double the national average.
Under the visa programme’s rules, participants may purchase only residential properties worth more than NZ$5 million, a provision designed to prevent their presence from distorting the broader housing market.
“There are a lot of billionaires here. They just wear gumboots,” one property adviser said.
However, doubts remain about the programme’s benefits. Sam Stubbs, chief executive of pension fund Simplicity, said people should make “genuine investments” in the country rather than seek special treatment in exchange for “a small amount of money” invested in a venture capital fund.
“Heaven comes at a price. It’s a price we all pay,” Stubbs said.
Some applicants have also voiced concerns. Courtney Andelman, who runs a venture capital fund in Santa Barbara with her husband Jim, successfully obtained a visa last year and now visits New Zealand regularly.
“There’s something magical in the air and the water. It’s an incredibly healthy place,” Andelman said.
However, she said she wanted to settle in a smaller South Island city such as Nelson, where her investments could have a greater impact, but found very few properties worth more than NZ$5 million.
She also complained that under New Zealand’s tax rules, if her family spends more than 183 days a year in the country, their worldwide income becomes subject to New Zealand taxation.
Andelman said she loved New Zealand but expressed concern and issued an implicit warning.
“How to make every dollar achieve its highest and best use is a question we constantly ask ourselves. If New Zealand doesn’t offer the best value, we’ll go somewhere else. Every one of those dollars is mobile.”
America
Oil industry lobbies White House to avert potential Trump export ban
Oil industry executives and White House officials are engaging in a new push to prevent any move by the administration to restrict US oil exports.
According to a report by Politico, industry representatives say these efforts extend to the White House Domestic Policy Council, the National Energy Dominance Council, the Department of Energy, and Chief of Staff Susie Wiles.
Trump believes that oil prices could harm the Republicans’ chances of maintaining control of Congress in the November mid-term elections.
“Everyone from the industry and within the administration is working hand in hand to prevent this,” an energy industry executive said.
The individual added that White House officials had not formally raised the idea, “but everyone knows Trump will act like Trump again.”
The White House maintains that export restrictions are not on the agenda.
White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement: “While the President and the entire energy team are taking various measures to mitigate temporary disruptions in the energy market, the administration has been very clear: there is no plan to impose restrictions on oil and gas exports.”
White House representatives did not confirm whether industry lobbyists had approached specific agencies or officials to discuss the export issue. Department of Energy representatives did not respond to queries.
However, although administration officials have guaranteed since the early days of the Iranian war that an export ban was off the table, Trump’s directive to the Department of Justice in June to investigate oil companies on charges of price gouging put the sector on high alert.
Concerns within the industry mounted after Trump stated on Monday that oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron were making “too much money.”
Industry executives now fear Trump may try to make a move against them by restricting fuel export activities abroad, which have boomed since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran.
Another industry official said the sector had reiterated its concerns regarding export controls to the White House “very recently.”
The Trump administration has already tried several different approaches to lower prices that enjoy broader support from the oil industry.
These include the release of millions of barrels of oil from the country’s strategic petroleum reserve and the temporary suspension of the Jones Act to make it easier for non-American vessels to transport oil and natural gas between US ports.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright, a former oil company CEO, and Vice President JD Vance have repeatedly opposed the idea of limiting or banning exports.
Wright stated in May that the administration had “definitely” ruled out the option of banning diesel exports.
Mike Sommers, president of the American Petroleum Institute, said he was “confident” Trump understood the need to maintain oil exports, recalling that early in the crisis, the president had encouraged other countries to buy American oil:
“The administration has repeatedly expressed that they are opposed to [export controls]. Therefore, I do not think there is any change in their stance at the moment. Frankly, it feels as though we have to clarify this issue every three weeks.”
In a note sent to clients on Tuesday, consultancy firm ClearView Energy stated that the moment for the White House to take a step toward limiting fuel exports “might be approaching.”
The firm noted that former President Joe Biden had considered imposing export restrictions ahead of the 2022 mid-term elections following a “long summer of high petrol prices” caused by the war in Ukraine.
US crude oil exports increased by approximately 30% compared with last year, reaching nearly 3.5 million barrels per day by the end of July.
Shipments of refined products such as diesel, petrol, and other types of oil rose by 20%, exceeding 8 million barrels per day.
Opponents of exports argue that sending these cargoes abroad leads to rising prices domestically.
However, the oil and gas industry contends that closing the door to exports would harm the domestic market and cause their production to decline.
“Export bans may seem politically attractive, but ultimately they will lead to the exact opposite of the intended effect,” said a refining industry lobbyist who noted they were in contact with the White House on the matter, arguing that cutting off American exports from international markets would mean “a decline in US production, supply shortages, further upward pressure on domestic prices, and even greater disruptions in the global market.”
Chet Thompson, president and CEO of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, stated that export controls would force US refiners to produce less petrol because they would lose commercial channels to ship other surplus fuels, such as diesel, produced during the process.
America
US and Ukraine restore intelligence sharing to former levels
Three US senators have reported that intelligence sharing between Washington and Kyiv has reached its former level. The White House declined to disclose details of the current intelligence relationship, emphasizing that President Donald Trump remains focused on ending the conflict.
American senators reported that intelligence sharing between the US and Ukraine has returned to its previous level.
According to a report by Politico, the senators offering this assessment include Democratic Senator Mark Warner, a long-standing advocate for increasing aid to Ukraine.
Commenting on the matter, Warner said: “I don’t want to get into details, but things have improved.” Republican senators John Cornyn and Roger Wicker stated that information sharing has accelerated during a period of “strategic importance”.
Democratic Senator Tim Kaine also noted that he has observed signs of a revival in information sharing between the US and Ukraine.
The White House did not disclose details regarding the current state of its intelligence-sharing relationship with Ukraine. However, in comments to Politico, it emphasized that US President Donald Trump is focused on contributing to the termination of the conflict.
A White House official told Politico: “The President and his team remain committed to playing a constructive role in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine and remain optimistic that we will ultimately reach a peace agreement.”
Last autumn, the Financial Times reported that Trump had issued instructions to prepare for sharing intelligence data that could assist Ukraine in conducting strikes deep inside Russian territory.
Russian authorities are demanding that Western nations cease providing military aid to Ukraine, emphasizing that such assistance will not prevent Moscow from achieving its military campaign objectives.
Last year, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs requested that the US side clarify information regarding the transfer of intelligence data to Ukraine.
According to statements from the Kremlin, Russia has long been aware that the US and NATO countries collect intelligence and transfer it to the Ukrainian military, noting that this is “not a new development”.
Nevertheless, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia will not tolerate attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and will continue to respond forcefully.
In June, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia is prepared to conduct negotiations with Ukraine on the basis of the agreements reached in Istanbul.
According to Putin, the parties must also take into account the agreements reached between Moscow and Washington in Anchorage, the situation on the front line, and the conditions for a settlement previously set out by Russia.
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