Diplomacy
Mali shut the door in France’s face
As Mali government bans the activities of “Non-Governmental Organizations” (NGOs) which receive financial support from France, German soldiers will leave Mali by the end of 2023 at the latest.
In Mali, the government’s decision to ban the activities of NGOs backed by France came after France cut off its development assistance to Mali. Paris cited Russian security company Wagner’s presence in the country as a reason for cutting aid.
Government Spokesperson Abdoulaye Maiga said France’s claims were unfounded and were made with the aim of manipulating public opinion.
“This is a ploy to deceive and manipulate national and international public opinion with the sole aim of destabilising and isolating Mali,” Maiga said of France’s statements.
Stating that this decision of France left the people of Mali in a difficult position and was used as an element of blackmail against the administrators, Maiga emphasized that on the other hand, France provided support to terrorist groups operating on the territory of Mali.
Subsequently, Maiga announced that the activities of all non-governmental organizations in Mali, which France supports or supplies with equipment and material, were banned. It has been stated that organizations working in the field of “humanitarian aid” are also within the scope of the ban.
France had to withdraw its troops
Mali’s army, which took over the French-backed government in August 2020, established a Military Transition Council that would hold power until 2025. The first task of the transitional administration was to deport the French ambassador. After that, Mali’s government announced that the cooperation agreements in the field of defence, signed in 2014, were terminated because France violated the right of sovereignty of Mali in various ways.
France, where the new administration and the public made it very clear that they do not want themselves on the territory of Mali, withdrew its military units, which it deployed 8 years ago under the pretext of fighting terrorism, last August.
As the protests of local people against the French troops intensified, the French General Staff announced that the last battalion of the Barkhane force on the Malian territory had left the border between Mali and Niger. France had nearly 2,300 soldiers in Mali.
England is withdrawing as well
Recently, England announced it would withdraw its troops from Mali earlier than planned, citing “political instability”.
James Heappey, England’s Secretary of State for Defence, announced to lawmakers in parliament that they would withdraw about 300 British troops sent to Mali as part of the United Nations (UN) Peacekeeping mission.
It’s Germany’s turn
After France and England, Germany also announced its decision to withdraw from Mali.
The German government reportedly wants to end the mandate of German troops in Mali in May 2024 as part of the United Nations (UN) Mali Multidimensional Integrated Stability Mission (MINUSMA). There are currently about 1,200 German soldiers in Mali as part of the UN MINUSMA mission.
Mali’s Minister of Defence was in Moscow
While the presence Western forces in Mali that are deployed to the country under the pretext of fighting terrorism has weakened, it is noteworthy that Bamako has improved its relations with Russia since 2020.
Mali’s Military Transition Council received five planes, one military helicopter, new military equipment and devices from Russia in January 2022. Mali’s Ministery of Defence has announced that Russian military support has strengthened Mali’s reconnaissance and offensive capabilities. In August, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Mali’s President Assimi Goita met in Moscow and the two leaders agreed to improve co-operation. Following the meeting, the Russian side said it would provide military equipment as well as fuel, grain and fertilizer support to Mali.
Last day, Mali’s Minister of Defence Daoud Aly Mohammedine reportedly travelled to Moscow at the invitation of the Kremlin, and the two countries signed an agreement on co-operation in the field of security and intelligence.
Russia’s position in the region grows stronger
Russia’s position is becoming stronger, both on the basis of governments and among the people in Africa, where anti-Frenchism is rising. Unlike France, the Malian authorities stress that Russia respects their sovereignty and does not interfere in their internal affairs. While the West says that Russia has settled in the region and increased its influence through Wagner, cooperation with Russia in the military field does not give rise to a dependent relationship, according to regional officials. Russian flags also attract attention in popular actions that violently protest and expel France.
China and Turkey are also active
On the other hand, the ongoing instability and terror in the Sahel, despite years of France’s Operation Barkhane and the UN Peacekeeping Force in the region, calls into question the success and effectiveness of these operations. The belief that the West feeds terrorist organizations in order to maintain its influence in the region is dominant both among the people and among African leaders. African leaders aim to develop formulas based on their own military strength to ensure the security of the continent.
While China stands out as a priority partner in the field of trade and infrastructure for Sahel countries rich in bauxite, uranium, iron, gold and oil reserves, Turkey as well as Russia increases its influence in the region in the field of security and defense. Turkey’s defense and aviation exports to the continent increased more than five times from 82.9 million dollars in 2020 to 460.6 million dollars in 2021.
An era is ending…
France launched the Serval operation on 11 January 2013 on the grounds of ‘political instability in Mali and the fight against the activities of Al-Qaeda-linked groups and the purification of the northern territories of the Malian government (including the cities of Timbuktu and Gao) from radical terrorist organizations’. However, after France’s operation, the crises and conflicts deepened and spread to other countries rich in mines in the Sahel region (Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, Eritrea).
France, which launched the Serval operation in 2013, first sent 3,000 soldiers to this country and then 1,500 in August. Despite announcing that it ended the operation on 15 July 2014, France did not withdraw troops from the country, but instead deployed them to Mauritania, Chad, Niger, Burkina Faso and moved its military activities to the wider Sahel region under the name of Operation Barkhane, which began in 2014.
Macron also pursued France’s Mali and Sahel policy. But since August 2020, France faces the ‘danger‘of being excluded from the region.
Although the old colonies of France achieved their political independence in the 1960s, economic and military dependence continued with new colonialism. Today, the failure and reluctance of Western powers to ‘combat’ extremist terrorism, one of the most important security problems in the region, has brought with it the need and debate of Africa to turn to its own power. On the other hand, the search for alternative international co-operation continues, but the most important expectation is that these alternative collaborations do not lead to ‘new colonialism’.
Diplomacy
Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks
US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.
According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.
This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.
US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.
Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”
According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.
White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.
Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.
Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.
In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.
Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.
Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.
Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.
On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.
Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.
On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”
The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”
Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.
On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.
According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”
Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.
Diplomacy
Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide
British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.
According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.
This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.
In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.
The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.
The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”
The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.
More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.
The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.
According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.
The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.
The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.
The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.
Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.
Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.
The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.
Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.
If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.
Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.
Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).
Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.
Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.
Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.
Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”
Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.
Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.
In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.
Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”
Diplomacy
Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution
Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.
The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.
According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.
“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.
Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.
“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.
Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.
The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.
In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.
According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.
Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.
On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.
According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.
Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.
Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.
In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.
In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.
Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.
In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.
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