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‘Mourning is not enough’

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Hans von Sponeck, former UN Assistant-Secretary-General and Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq

War: war was part of the first years of my life. I have felt war. My father was executed in 1944, my grandfather died as a prisoner of war, my half-brother lost his life on the eastern front, my mother escaped from an internment camp, and my grandmother and I saw the end of the war in a hide-out at what became the border between two Germanies.

As I grew older, I was eager, very eager, to understand what could prevent war. Young as I was, it was not yet clear to me what this entailed. In 1957, I was seventeen at the time, I was offered a travel scholarship by the French Zelidja Foundation and my German boarding school, Salem, to support the plan I had to go to Israel to meet German Jews who had escaped from the area where my school was located and found refuge in Israel.

I wanted to understand how they had started their new life as survivors from my country. I wanted to join them, and this was for more than one reason: to be there and to share their effort to settle. A German cargo ship brought me from Hamburg to Haifa – what freight it carried, I do not remember, maybe some goods that symbolized that there was a future between Germany and Israel.

The innocence of my age protected me during this visit against the burden of guilt. Tel Adashim, a moshav or farming community, gave me the opportunity to meet with people who had at one time been fellow Germans. They were kind to me and allowed me to get a glimpse of their new life. In two Kibbutzim, Ein Gedi, and Ein Gev, both in the Dead Sea area, I encountered a more difficult reality. It was not the toughness of the work in the fields that was a challenge, it was the horrors of the experience of the older kibbutzniks that were written on their faces and the reservation of the younger, the sabers, the locally-born Israelis towards me, a young German who had come to try to understand. What remains very clearly in my memory is the immense optimism the Israelis I met all had in building a life based on peace and tranquility. I knew nothing of the plight of the Palestinians.

This is not the place to review decades of opportunities various Israeli governments have missed to build upon these initial years of the young country and accept the UN General Assembly’s decision of 1947 to have a Jewish and an Arab state in the former British Protectorate of Palestine. I want to recall what Albert Einstein wrote to Chaim Weizman in 1929, who later became Israel’s first president: “Should the Jews not learn to live in peace with the Arabs, then we have learnt nothing during the 2000 years of suffering and deserve all that will come to us.” How dare I, as a non-Jew, include such a quote? To do so is not an antisemitic outburst on my part. I am ardently pro-semitic partially because Palestinians and Israelis are both of Semitic origin unless Shem, the son of Noah, is no longer considered an ancestor of Jews and Arabs. My heart aches and my mind is determined to speak out.  

The condemnation by the UN Secretary-General Guterres of the horrific acts by Hamas and at the same time, his reminding the world that the Palestinian people have had to endure 56 years of suffocating occupation while their land was devoured by illegal settlements took courage but was the right thing to do.  The brutality of the IDF response to the brutality of the Hamas attack both constitute severe violations of international humanitarian law for which they must be held accountable. While law has no feelings, innocent citizens of Palestine and Israel have feelings, yet no choice but to suffer.

The UN Security Council was created after the Second World War to function as a team able to find compromises and negotiate solutions and not act as national adversaries that add fuel to the fire. Yet, the US and the Russian draft resolutions currently before the Security Council demonstrate that geopolitical interests are more important than ending the carnage and fulfilling their mandate to prevent war and find solutions for peace.

As a former UN civil servant who has seen at close range how the world of power handled Iraq in the previous century, I am outraged by the hypocrisy of heads of state and foreign ministers flocking to Tel Aviv with one-sided messages and adding the fig leaf not to forget humanitarian aid. Completely ignored is the context, the ‘why’ it all happened.  Are pictures of the Supernova Sukkot Gathering, Gaza City, and Khan Younis not enough to instill a sense of urgency, of compassion, and an imperative to replace hollow rhetoric with concrete measures that will make a difference whether Palestinians and Israelis alike survive or die?

DIPLOMACY

EU, Mercosur aim to finalize trade deal by early December

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The European Commission and Mercosur countries are working to complete negotiations on a long-anticipated trade deal by early December, sources familiar with the discussions told POLITICO.

Farmers are expected to rally against the deal in Brussels on Wednesday, with additional protests in France later in the week.

The upcoming G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro was initially seen as the ideal opportunity to finalize the agreement, which has been under negotiation for nearly 25 years.

“All the cards are on the table,” said one person familiar with the EU-Mercosur talks. “They want to ensure a near-finalized deal, so Ursula [von der Leyen] doesn’t make the trip in vain.” However, the signing of the agreement might be delayed over concerns that China could overshadow the summit.

A European Commission official confirmed that face-to-face talks are scheduled for the week of November 25 in Brazil to resolve any outstanding issues. While the official refrained from specifying a completion date, they emphasized that the Mercosur nations—Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, and new member Bolivia—are pushing to sign the agreement promptly.

Uruguay is set to host the Mercosur summit from December 2–4, with Argentina, under newly elected Javier Milei, assuming the bloc’s presidency.

China concerns accelerate EU-Mercosur deal timeline

This “cows-for-cars” trade deal would eliminate trade barriers and establish a common market encompassing around 800 million people, representing 20% of global GDP. For European countries, particularly Germany, this agreement is viewed as overdue, especially given China’s expanding economic footprint in South America, where European firms are increasingly being sidelined.

“If we don’t reach a trade agreement with [Mercosur], China will inevitably fill the void,” remarked Kaja Kallas, the EU’s new foreign minister, on Tuesday. Citing data, she added that Chinese investment in Latin America surged 34-fold between 2020 and 2022.

Those familiar with the negotiations indicated that certain issues remain unresolved, including public procurement regulations, environmental provisions, and the legal structure of the agreement.

Mercosur nations are particularly keen on securing more flexibility from the EU and additional time for local firms to compete with European counterparts. Brazil has also expressed a desire to protect its domestic automotive industry from EU imports, especially electric vehicles.

France’s reluctance and Macron’s challenges

French Trade Minister Sophie Primas recently stated to POLITICO that Mercosur countries are eager to finalize the deal before the Mercosur summit. However, Primas remains skeptical that the agreement will enable the EU to effectively counter China’s influence in Latin America.

Amid concerns over a potential surge in agricultural imports, France successfully blocked the Mercosur negotiations in January, just as they were nearing completion. This time, however, President Emmanuel Macron faces a tougher challenge, especially after recent electoral setbacks in the European Parliament and National Assembly.

In a recent letter published in Le Monde, over 600 French MPs from both parliamentary chambers urged von der Leyen not to proceed with the deal, citing unmet democratic, economic, environmental, and social standards for an agreement with Mercosur.

Paris falls short of blocking coalition

Despite recent efforts to secure opposition, Paris is unlikely to gather the qualified minority—representing at least 35% of the EU population—needed to block the deal when it comes to a vote among EU member states.

France has also launched a diplomatic campaign to persuade other EU nations to oppose the agreement. However, two diplomats with direct knowledge report that Italy has not been swayed.

Italy remains cautious in supporting the deal, wary of the potential for political fallout like that seen in France.

‘France’s opposition is symbolic; the battle is lost’

Over the weekend, Macron traveled to Argentina to meet with Milei ahead of the G20 summit in Brazil. Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is scheduled to visit Buenos Aires on November 20.

Although French ministers have vehemently opposed the deal and increased efforts to build a blocking minority, Prime Minister Michel Barnier has kept a low profile. Barnier is expected to meet with von der Leyen and EU Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis in Brussels today (November 13) and will likely address the Mercosur agreement, which he opposes in its current form.

Critics argue that France’s resistance is mostly symbolic, and that Paris has already lost this battle.

For years, France has insisted on incorporating the Paris Agreement and enacting legally binding deforestation commitments as part of the Mercosur deal. In response, the European Commission has indicated its intent to support French demands in the final phase of negotiations, although Mercosur countries have repeatedly signaled their resistance to any form of sanctions.

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Japan, UK to launch bilateral economic dialogue ahead of potential Trump tariffs

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Japan and the UK are set to initiate an economic version of the “two plus two” dialogue—a regular meeting between foreign and trade ministers—due to rising concerns about possible tariffs from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his British counterpart, Keir Starmer, are scheduled to meet in Rio de Janeiro during the upcoming G20 Summit on Monday, November 18. According to officials from both governments, the goal is to establish a bilateral economic dialogue.

This development follows Trump’s recent election victory and his anticipated return to the White House in January. During his campaign, Trump pledged to impose tariffs of 60% on imports from China and 10-20% on imports from other nations, including Japan and the UK.

The Japan-UK economic dialogue aims to strengthen cooperation in upholding the international economic order, including principles of free trade.

Topics at the meeting will cover a wide range of strategic and geopolitical issues. Both partners are expected to explore ways to initiate a trade dialogue with the U.S. to prevent a potential tariff hike. Sources indicate that countermeasures may also be on the table if U.S. import tariffs do increase.

In 2023, 20% of Japan’s exports and 15% of the UK’s exports were destined for the U.S., underscoring the potential economic impact of increased tariffs.

Additionally, the UK hopes that a strengthened partnership with Japan can help offset its reduced influence since leaving the European Union (EU) in 2020.

During the previous Trump administration, the EU (of which the UK was then a member) imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. steel and motorcycles in response to Washington’s high import duties.

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Azerbaijan plans to boost oil and gas production as it hosts COP29

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The 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has commenced in Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital. As the host nation, Azerbaijan is also looking to expand its fossil fuel production, positioning itself at the intersection of climate policy and energy expansion.

According to the Financial Times, Azerbaijan’s state oil and gas company SOCAR (State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic) is set to increase production of new fossil fuel sources during the COP29 summit. The summit, a key gathering on global climate change, underscores a paradox for Azerbaijan: pledging climate action while pursuing expanded oil and gas output.

A report by campaign group Global Witness, which analyzed data from independent consultancy Rystad Energy, estimates that 44% of SOCAR’s production will be new oil and gas by 2050—the second-highest proportion among national oil companies globally. This report examined production projections based on both developed and undeveloped fields as well as undiscovered fossil fuel reserves.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), new long-term oil and gas projects conflict with the goal of limiting the average global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels—the target set by the Paris Agreement. This expansion aligns Azerbaijan with Europe’s aim to diversify energy sources, especially given the EU’s push to replace Russian gas following the Ukraine conflict.

Meanwhile, SOCAR has increased production in recent years as Europe seeks to replace Russian natural gas with resources from other nations, including Azerbaijan. This has drawn criticism, particularly as Azerbaijan—through Muhtar Babayev, COP29 President and Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources—continues to call for limiting global warming to 1.5°C.

At COP28 last year in Dubai, almost 200 nations committed to phasing out fossil fuels by mid-century. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan has signed multiple oil and gas deals since securing COP29 hosting rights, including SOCAR’s first international investment in upstream oil and gas—a $468 million stake in UAE gas projects.

“Azerbaijan is Europe’s strategic supplier of natural gas and is expanding capacity to meet European energy demands after the 2022 supply disruptions,” a COP29 spokesperson stated. Additionally, Azerbaijan is “expanding its renewable energy exports to serve the region and European markets,” he added. SOCAR did not respond to requests for comment.

Azerbaijan’s COP presidency has sparked criticism, echoing concerns raised during the UAE’s COP28 role. Richard Kinley, former executive secretary of the UN climate panel, expressed disappointment: “It is deeply disturbing that they can’t even seem to draw a ‘sanitary cordon’ around the COP presidency to prevent fossil fuel interests from undermining its purpose.”

Danish Climate Minister Lars Aagaard—attending COP29—remarked that Azerbaijan’s energy strategy also includes renewable energy initiatives, with Ørsted, a prominent wind energy company, present at the summit. However, European diplomats told the Financial Times that Azerbaijani officials have raised gas deal discussions alongside climate negotiations, mainly in relation to replacing Russian gas supplies transiting through Ukraine, with this contract ending soon.

According to Bloomberg, companies in Hungary and Slovakia are finalizing a deal with Azerbaijan to substitute gas from the Ukrainian pipeline. Energy analysts have cautioned that this agreement could mask continued Russian gas flows. Additionally, a recent report from Chatham House highlighted Azerbaijan’s strategy to secure long-term European gas supply agreements.

“By positioning itself at the heart of the multilateral climate process, the Azerbaijani government may seek to shape the global energy transition dialogue to ensure its oil and gas reserves remain profitable as long as possible,” the report suggests.

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