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Normalization with Syria is both easy and very difficult

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It should be noted with concern that the talks between the deputy foreign ministers of Türkiye and Syria scheduled for March 15-16 in Moscow, which were supposed to pave the way for normalization between Ankara and Damascus, have been postponed. Based on the media reports, it is possible to conclude that the postponement was due to statements made by Syrian President Assad to the Russian press.

In this statement, Assad underlined two issues in particular. The first is Türkiye’s withdrawal from Syrian territory, which it controls, and the other is Ankara’s refusal to support groups seen as terrorists by the Damascus government. If we really want to normalize relations with Syria, we need to consider these demands.

GRADUAL WITHDRAWAL FROM SYRIAN TERRITORY

First, it is very useful to make this analysis by putting ourselves in the position of the Syrian and Damascus governments and then focusing on what we want to achieve with normalization with this country. For example, how long do we want to stay in the territory we control in Syria? If we are not opposed to these territories coming under Syria’s full and effective sovereignty, and if it is only a question of timing or timetable, the problem can be overcome. For example, why is it not possible for the Syrian state to gradually appoint administrators to the lands we control and to integrate these lands into its administrative system within the framework of a certain calendar when an agreement is signed with the Damascus government in line with our expectations from Syria (return of asylum seekers and joint fight against terrorism)? More precisely, why not consider signing another agreement with the government in Damascus to cede these territories to Syria’s direct and effective sovereignty once we have reached a compromise with Syria on issues such as the return of asylum seekers and the updated implementation of the Adana Agreement?

Accordingly, once a common ground on the asylum seekers and the Adana Agreement is found, Türkiye would sign an agreement committing to cede these territories to Syria’s direct sovereignty, and a timetable could be set for how this would happen gradually. While Turkish security forces maintain a presence in those areas, Syria could appoint administrators, teachers, doctors, and other civil servants there, and the Damascus government could also consider sending teams to liaise with Turkish security forces. As a result, the process of integrating the public institutions and administration in these regions under the de facto control of Türkiye into the Syrian system and the registration of border crossings by Turkish and Syrian customs officials could be initiated. Trade between the two countries would be recorded and taxed. During such a transition, Turkish security forces would gradually leave the region, at which time the Adana Agreement, already updated, would come into effect and Türkiye’s most important security concern would be addressed. Syria, on the other hand, could reincorporate its territory into its sovereignty. It may be possible to develop a complete win/win strategy.

IF OUR GOAL IS NOT TO WITHDRAW FROM SYRIAN TERRITORY…

If our goal is not to withdraw from the territories we control, then the scenarios are different, and it is already impossible to return asylum seekers and to fight terrorism jointly with Syria on the basis of the Adana Agreement. If our aim is to impose a political solution on Syria, as some of our senior officials insisted until recently after President Erdoğan announced his intention to normalize relations with Syria and meet with Assad after his meeting with Putin in Sochi on August 6, 2022, all this brainstorming should be discarded. According to these senior officials, who use the highly offensive and toxic word ‘regime’, the way to reconcile/normalize with Syria is to bring a new constitution to this country. In other words, we seem to want a named or unnamed federal constitution that changes the constitution of the country in a national-unitary structure and replaces it with autonomous regions. Until recently, the same senior officials were even talking about reconciling the ‘regime’ and the ‘opposition’.

Apart from the fact that such an expectation is not at all compatible with the realities in both the field and the international arena, it can be observed at first glance that it does not serve Türkiye’s national interests. For example, if instead of transferring the territory we control directly to the effective sovereignty of the Syrian state, we want to keep it under the effective control of the groups that we call the Syrian National Army (SMO) and act together with us, we will transform this country into a federation that includes autonomous regions, even if it is possible, let alone Syria or even Russia will not accept it. Wouldn’t we then be playing into the hands of groups in Idlib that we also consider terrorists and, more importantly, the PKK/PYD terrorists who, together with the U.S. forces, are carrying out large-scale ethnic cleansing in the east of the Euphrates and seizing the region? Because a Syria with autonomous regions is the final solution that both groups ultimately want, at least for now. What national interests does such a result serve in Türkiye? We have to ask this question openly and answer it from the point of view of national interests, because the future of certain groups that have emerged as a result of the mistakes, we made during the war, has come to take precedence over the national interests of Türkiye.

There is no national interest to be gained from the Turkish media’s psychologically motivated treatment of the issue, such as ‘Assad has put forward unacceptable conditions for the summit’, because the idea of ‘let’s actually take Aleppo, let’s be on the safe side’ lies behind that logic. And in fact, it reflects a mindset that does not want to compromise with Syria, which it sees as Assad. A mindset that laments, ‘If Russia had not been so involved, we would have overthrown this Assad regime long ago’… Accordingly, it is a way of thinking that assumes it is possible and right to impose at least some conditions on the Assad regime, which we have failed to overthrow, and that it is possible and right for us to exert constant pressure on the ‘regime’ through the SMO, to which we will de facto hand over the administration of the territories we control…

THE HEAVY PRICE OF NOT WITHDRAWING FROM SYRIA

However, when we analyze them carefully, they all contain seriously dangerous and harmful elements for Türkiye’s national interests. Although not possible under the current conditions, if the SMO will become the security forces of the regions we currently control when we force Syria out of its current national-unitary structure and force it into a federation with autonomous regions, HTS and PKK/PYD will position themselves as security forces in Idlib and PKK/PYD regions that will turn into autonomous regions. In such a scenario, Türkiye will not be able to gain any benefit, and this state structure will pave the way for the disintegration of Syria in the next step, because it can be said that Syria, which the Western world, especially the U.S., does not want to remain within its current borders and favors its division into three if possible, will not survive in the medium term and its division into independent states according to federal borders will be inevitable.

After all, in an international environment where the federal structures of Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union have disintegrated one after another, and where the disintegration of states such as Spain and even the United Kingdom (UK) seems quite possible, it is inconceivable that a federal Syria, which would be the scene of provocations and power struggles by the U.S. on the one hand and Israel and other states on the other, would survive. Well, even if the SMO-controlled territories of a disintegrating Syria want to join Türkiye, can it be a reasonable and logical policy for Türkiye’s national interests to pave the way for the PKK/PYD to become an independent state in this way? It cannot be because Türkiye needs neither land nor additional population. In such a scenario, it should be noted that it is quite predictable the Arab world, which is increasingly normalizing its relations with Syria, will react and act together against Türkiye, which has seized or is trying to seize the territory of an Arab state. In such a case, it is highly likely that the UN Security Council would unite against Türkiye.

What needs to be done is to pave the way for the Erdogan-Assad summit as soon as possible. We need new thinking for reconciliation and normalization, discarding the ideas that underpin old wrong and destructive policies. Two agreements with Syria on the return of refugees and the joint fight against terrorism should be signed before the quadrilateral leaders’ summit including the participation of Russia and Iran. When updating the Adana Agreement, in addition to the PKK, the PYD, YPG and all their derivatives should be included in the text, and jihadist groups, which Syria considers terrorist organizations – some of which we also consider terrorist – can be added to that text. In addition, a timetable for withdrawal will be agreed upon, with Türkiye guaranteeing that it will hand over the Syrian territory under its control to the effective sovereignty of the Damascus government. It would be much more appropriate to concentrate on the extraordinary investment, reconstruction and trade-economic benefits that such a reconciliation of the two states would bring to both sides, and to try to secure Syria’s recognition of the TRNC based on the normalization of relations. On the contrary, every attempt and every delay will continue to impose a huge financial burden on both the current government and the state/nation.

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India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships

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Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.

India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.

Today, India’s achievements extend  beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.

India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.

India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.

The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.

Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.

India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with  NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.

These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.

To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.

India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.

The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.

In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.

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Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa

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In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.

History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.

Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.

Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.

AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS

Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.

Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.

In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”

China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.

THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY

It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.

The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.

The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.

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The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues

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BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.

Allan Wilson, Journalist

Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.

“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”

Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.

For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.

The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.

“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.

A statue, a warning

The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.

The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.

For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”

Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.

The shrinking window

Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.

This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.

Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.

A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.

The international dimension

The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”

Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.

For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.

“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.

This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.

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