Russia
Patrushev urges assertive Russian naval presence to counter NATO encirclement strategy
Nikolai Patrushev, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation and Chairman of the Maritime Board, has outlined a sweeping strategic vision for Russia’s global naval power while issuing sharp warnings to NATO, the Baltic states, and European governments.
In an extensive interview with Ivan Yegorov of the state-run newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta, the former Director of the Federal Security Service (FSB) also disclosed previously classified operational details from his tenure heading the domestic intelligence agency and shared personal family histories from World War II.
Speaking ahead of the 85th anniversary of the beginning of the Great Patriotic War, Patrushev emphasized the geopolitical imperative of preserving historical memory as a geopolitical shield.
“The Great Patriotic War is the cornerstone of our national historical memory and an inseparable part of our culture,” Patrushev said. “In Russia, regardless of nationality, it is impossible to imagine a normal citizen who does not hold the memory of the war sacred. Fighting uncompromisingly to preserve this memory is everyone’s duty. This is the most effective antidote against the new wars being fomented on earth today.”
Patrushev criticized Western societies for what he characterized as a profound ignorance of history. “If people in the West knew the history of the Second World War deeply enough and learned the full truth about the atrocities of Hitlerism, they would shrink back in horror from their governments, which today support neo-Nazism,” he said.
He asserted that during World War II, the proportion of Nazi collaborators in Europe far outnumbered those in active resistance movements, describing this as an established historical fact.
“This is not an assertion, but a fact accepted by European historians,” Patrushev said. “In France, with a population of 40 million, approximately 3.5 million people served the occupiers. I emphasize: they did not merely sympathize; they directly and actively served. In contrast, the number of participants in the French Resistance was around 250,000. These figures are not even comparable. Indeed, the last defenders of the Reichstag were French SS soldiers.”
Evaluating France’s post-war status, Patrushev added: “Nevertheless, France was included among the victorious allied nations and obtained a seat on the United Nations Security Council due to the anti-fascist movement of the Allies and the personal respect that Joseph Stalin himself held for General Charles de Gaulle.”
“Descendants of those who besieged Leningrad are now aiding Kyiv”
Turning to the German occupation of the British Channel Islands, Patrushev stated: “There, such an agreement was reached between the British and the Germans that British police patrolled alongside German soldiers. However, many ordinary residents of the islands acted more courageously than the British authorities, hiding Soviet prisoners of war, whom the Germans had brought for forced labor, in their homes.”
Patrushev emphasized that, in his view, the whole of Europe consciously waged war against the Soviet Union.
“Nearly half of the SS divisions were formed from elements coming from Italy, Romania, Hungary, Finland, Slovakia, France, Croatia, Spain, Denmark, the Netherlands, and other countries,” he said. “Eleven states participated in the siege of my hometown, Leningrad. Alongside Germans and Finns, Italians, Norwegians, Spaniards, Romanians, Belgians, Dutch, and those from the Baltic countries attempted to destroy the people of Leningrad. Now, their descendants are hypocritically aiding Kyiv in attacking St. Petersburg with unmanned aerial vehicles.”
He dismissed the historical neutrality of certain European states as “merely formal.”
“The Swedes provided strategic raw materials and industrial products to the Germans; the Portuguese sold tungsten,” Patrushev said. “The neutrality of Switzerland is an entirely different matter. Gold bars melted down from the jewelry and gold teeth of prisoners murdered in concentration camps are still stored in the vaults of Swiss banks. Meanwhile, Irish Prime Minister Eamon de Valera went to the German embassy in May 1945 to offer his condolences following the death of Hitler.”
Patrushev characterized the decisions of Finnish leader Carl Gustaf Emil Mannerheim and King Michael I of Romania to withdraw their countries from the Axis alliance as strictly pragmatic, forced steps.
“Mannerheim and Michael made forced decisions to switch to the side of the Soviet Union when Soviet troops reached the borders of their countries,” Patrushev said. “On our territory, the Finns acted in a more bloodthirsty manner than the Germans. Despite this, the Soviet Union showed magnanimity; the political regime in Finland was preserved, and the King of Romania was honored with the Order of Victory, the highest military decoration of the Soviet Union. Of course, the steps of these leaders were not sincere repentance, but pragmatic decisions. Yet, it must be acknowledged that they chose the path of saving their countries from complete destruction. Today’s Europeans need to learn at least common sense from them.”
“Watching Baltic states pull the whiskers of a cat with nuclear claws”
When asked whether similar pragmatic leaders would emerge in contemporary Europe, Patrushev warned of potential catastrophe.
“Either these leaders will be found, or Europe will be dragged into a disaster,” he replied. “For now, events are developing according to the second scenario, and some European countries are practically unable to sit still. It may be a somewhat crude expression, but when I watch the mice in the Baltic states pulling the whiskers of a cat that has nuclear claws, this is precisely the impression I get.”
Patrushev described aggressive statements from Lithuanian officials regarding the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad as the work of “pathologically troubled people.”
“It is clear that Lithuanian politicians want to drag the whole of Europe into this adventure,” Patrushev warned. “However, they cannot fail to understand that in the event of an attack, Lithuania’s peaceful, carefree life and sovereignty will come to an end first. Nevertheless, the Vilnius administration is deliberately pouring oil on the fire.”
Patrushev noted that he maintains contact with several childhood friends living in Lithuania. “I meet with my friends, and they all say with one voice that their own government does not represent national interests, but is instead rapidly turning the country into a colony of Brussels.”
Asserting that ordinary Europeans do not harbor hatred toward Russia, Patrushev urged the Baltic populations to study their own history.
“Europeans, especially the British, are the founders of racism,” Patrushev said. “The first racists did not consider the Baltic peoples to be human beings and practiced hatred against them. Do you think something has changed today? A graduate of Eton College in Britain will never view an Estonian or a Latvian as an equal.”
“Rescuing our brothers under neo-Nazi occupation in Ukraine”
Patrushev accused modern Europe of participating in the destruction of the Slavic population by backing Ukrainian forces, whom he characterized as neo-Nazis. “In fact, European neo-Nazis are making every effort to create a kind of Fourth Reich out of the European Union,” he said, adding that the deaths of children in Ukraine under the current administration remain a stain on the conscience of their Western supporters.
Describing the humanitarian situation in Ukraine as critical, Patrushev said:
“As part of the special military operation, we are also fighting for the future of the Ukrainian people. The Ukrainian population has literally been brought to the brink of survival. Half of the country has been turned into a massive barracks, and the other half into a concentration camp. The population has fallen from 52 million to 22 million. The majority of Ukrainians do not want to fight and do not view Russia as an enemy, but they have no right to make their voices heard. Neo-Nazi groups supported by London and Brussels keep the population in fear and completely control Zelenskyy. Today, we are fulfilling the mission of saving our brothers who have come under neo-Nazi occupation in Ukraine. Of course, the heirs of Goebbels habitually turn everything upside down, telling tales that Moscow has supposedly occupied Ukraine.”
Patrushev rejected historical assertions that the Soviet Union occupied Eastern Europe, arguing instead that the USSR brought peace and stability to the region. He claimed that many countries within the socialist bloc enjoyed higher living standards than the Soviet Union itself and built modern industries with Soviet assistance.
Addressing Western criticism of Soviet military interventions in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968, Patrushev said: “The Soviet Union resorted to force only in response to terror. In Hungary, angry crowds were tearing their own citizens apart in the streets. In Czechoslovakia, any loss of life among the civilian population was prevented. By contrast, I have not heard a single word of thanks from the West for the fact that the Soviet Union voluntarily permitted the reunification of Germany without bloodshed and without demanding any reparations.”
“We must be under the enemy’s nose without waiting for NATO ships”
Turning to Russia’s geopolitical position in a multipolar world, Patrushev emphasized maritime strength as a prerequisite for great-power status.
“In the world, there will be as many poles as there are great maritime powers,” Patrushev said. “If we want Russia to remain a great power and a true center of power, we must strengthen our positions on the seas. The experience of recent years shows that the security of maritime trade and our maritime borders is a primary condition for our country’s prosperity and stability. I believe that Russia will always be a great maritime power.”
Patrushev highlighted Russia’s unique geography as a critical asset. “Russia is the largest country in the world by surface area. However, we cannot develop and protect these vast territories without securing strong positions on the seas, developing distant maritime routes, and ensuring robust cabotage and inland waterway transport. Russia simultaneously faces the Atlantic, the Arctic, and the Pacific Oceans. We also open up to the Indian Ocean via the Caspian Sea and the North-South corridor, which is currently being developed. No other country in the world possesses this unique geography. Therefore, we can and must be a bridge in maritime trade between four oceans.”
He recalled that during World War II, the Soviet Baltic and Black Sea fleets were blockaded, but argued that strategic defeat was averted due to the sacrifices of Soviet sailors.
To prevent the Baltic Fleet from facing a similar containment strategy today, Patrushev called for an active maritime posture.
“Western strategists have analyzed the experience of world wars well and hope to pin our fleet back to its bases again, blockading it and forcing it to break through this blockade at the cost of heavy losses. This must not be allowed to happen again. The Baltic and Black Seas carry the main volume of our maritime trade. We have indications that the West is working not only on blockade scenarios but also on preemptive strike scenarios against our bases. Therefore, it is extremely important for the navy to be combat-ready and capable of combating threats such as mines, unmanned vehicles, and cyberattacks. We are detecting and neutralizing magnetic mines placed under some merchant ships arriving at our ports. We suspect these mines were attached in European ports.”
Patrushev advocated for an assertive naval doctrine based on historical precedents.
“Our navy, through its training and determination, must seize the initiative and impose its will on adversaries on opposing shores,” Patrushev said. “Remember the famous testament of Admiral Ushakov: ‘Close range to the enemy is the best tactical method.’ We must not wait for NATO ships, aircraft, and unmanned vehicles to arrive at our borders. On the contrary, we ourselves must be located right under the potential enemy’s nose. A good example of this was when our navy escorted merchant ships in the English Channel, off the coast of Britain. At that time, no British ship or aircraft dared to obstruct our convoy.”
To project Russia’s historical maritime role globally, Patrushev announced that the Maritime Humanitarian Research Center had been established within the Russian State University for the Humanities by presidential decree.
He described the Northern Sea Route as the product of a century of national effort, while acknowledging the contributions of foreign sailors who delivered aid to the Soviet Union via Arctic convoys.
“In 2017, when a monument in memory of the Arctic convoy sailors was unveiled in Iceland, our family was invited,” Patrushev said. “My brother Viktor and his wife Tatyana traveled to the capital, Reykjavik, where they were received with great respect. A few kilometers north of the Icelandic capital, in Hvalfjörður, where the allies formed their convoys, stands a monument called the Hope of Peace.”
Patrushev shared that World War II left deep scars on his own family. During the siege of Leningrad, his infant sister, Larisa, died of starvation.
His mother, Antonina Nikolayevna, served as a nurse during the Soviet-Finnish War and World War II, treating wounded soldiers in the hospitals of the 23rd Army, for which she was awarded the Order of the Patriotic War, Second Class, and four medals.
His father, Platon Ignatyevich, served as an officer on destroyers and warships in the Baltic and Northern fleets, participating in convoy escorts. He was awarded the Order of the Patriotic War, First Class, and two Orders of the Red Star.
His father, who retired with the rank of Captain First Class, miraculously survived the sinking of the destroyer Deyatelny, which was torpedoed by a German submarine near the end of the war. Patrushev noted that his own decision to study shipbuilding engineering was heavily influenced by these family ties and his father’s career.
After graduating from the Leningrad Shipbuilding Institute, which Patrushev described as offering world-class instruction, he worked in a specialized design bureau developing projects for Soviet military intelligence.
“In the nineties, Russia was indeed on the verge of collapse”
Reflecting on his career in Soviet and Russian intelligence, particularly during the 1990s, Patrushev described the post-Soviet transition as exceptionally perilous.
“The West was preparing to feast on the ruins of our country,” Patrushev said. “They believed that following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia would also disintegrate. They decided to achieve this using the forces of international terrorism. In all the positions I held, I had to fight this threat first and foremost.”
Patrushev accused Western intelligence services of systematic interference in Russian internal affairs during that era.
“They financed thousands of non-governmental organizations, media outlets, provocateurs, and outright traitors; they rewrote history and attempted to pit brotherly peoples, especially Slavs, against one another,” he said. “They aimed to divide and destroy not just the country, but the entire Russian world. We had to exert truly colossal efforts to preserve Russia. In the nineties, Russia was indeed on the verge of collapse.”
Regarding his decoration as a Hero of the Russian Federation by President Boris Yeltsin in 1999, Patrushev remarked: “I view this high award as an acknowledgment of the massive contribution made by thousands of my colleagues to preserve the existence, state structure, and territorial integrity of our country.”
Patrushev recalled that the counter-terrorism campaign in the North Caucasus entered its active phase in 1999, asserting that Western powers backed militants seeking to fragment Russia.
As Director of the FSB, Patrushev said he received real-time intelligence reports identifying the locations of militant training camps, their financial pipelines, and the names of dozens of European intelligence officers supplying weapons to the insurgents.
By 2001, coordination of the counter-terrorism operations in the region was fully transferred to the FSB.
Citing the operation to clear Gudermes of militants, Patrushev said: “Military officials at the time proposed a direct assault on the city, but in the end, our plan was accepted. The city was cleared of terrorists without a single shot being fired, preventing heavy casualties and saving the city from destruction.”
He stated that intelligence operations and negotiation efforts led several key figures, including the Yamadayev brothers, to lay down their arms and join the federal forces. Patrushev praised the role of the late Mufti of Chechnya, Akhmad Kadyrov, in ending the conflict, adding that Kadyrov had raised his son, Ramzan Kadyrov, to be a patriot.
Patrushev also highlighted the role of the FSB Special Purpose Center in operations that neutralized high-profile militant commanders, including Aslan Maskhadov, Arbi Barayev, Shamil Basayev, and Khattab, as well as the capture of Salman Raduyev.
Addressing criticisms surrounding the response to the 2002 Moscow theater hostage crisis, Patrushev said:
“Yes, there should have been no loss of life. Of course, the situation was extremely complex. The terrorists had penetrated almost to the center of our country; they were well-armed and had received instructions from their Western handlers to carry out maximum acts of terror to create instability and execute a coup in Russia. We immediately established an operational headquarters, and I reported every step to the President. We located a building in Moscow with a layout similar to the theater building and conducted hostage rescue rehearsals there with Special Purpose Center units. Following these preparations, the operation was launched. The operation was successfully executed, and the terrorists were neutralized before they could detonate any bombs. However, lives were lost. While the FSB units worked with extreme professionalism, there was a lack of similar coordination among other agencies. After the terrorists were neutralized, the rescue teams tasked with assisting the hostages failed to coordinate as they entered the hall. Consequently, panic ensued, and the antidote could not be administered to everyone in time, while some hostages received a double dose. This is why the casualties occurred.”
Patrushev added that necessary lessons were drawn from the tragedy, noting that the Ministry of Emergency Situations, currently led by Aleksandr Kurenkov, operates with significantly higher professionalism today.
Concluding the interview, Patrushev summarized his core personal philosophy: “In every post, I believe one must be useful to one’s country and people. We must preserve the memory of our great history and look to the future. In building the future, we must care for the new generations and pass on our experience to them. The greatest happiness is for young people to choose maritime professions and, through this path, acquire love for the motherland. The greatest spiritual value of the Russian person has always been love for the motherland.”
Russia
Europe ready for arms and missile control talks with Russia, FT says
Representatives of European nations are ready to renegotiate arms control and military conflict prevention agreements with Russia, according to a Financial Times report citing unnamed European officials.
The US is seeking to include European countries in discussions on a future security architecture.
In this context, Europeans look favourably upon returning to arms control mechanisms, including agreements limiting missile deployment and the restoration of arrangements operating during the Cold War era.
The newspaper cited the Open Skies Treaty, which allowed the US and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) to monitor each other’s military installations, and accords restricting the deployment of specific missile types among potential examples.
Participating states of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) signed the Open Skies Treaty in March 1992.
Signatory states are obliged to permit observation flights by other party nations over their territories using photographic and video surveillance.
Russia withdrew from the treaty in 2021.
Russian authorities emphasized in statements at the time that Russia had done everything possible to preserve the agreement, “despite numerous violations of the Open Skies Treaty by the US, its allies, and dependent states.”
According to information obtained by the newspaper, US President Donald Trump’s administration is seeking Moscow’s consent to organize a multilateral meeting involving European representatives.
A source speaking to the Financial Times noted that the European security architecture is among the main agenda items at the United Arab Emirates (UAE) summit, though Trump will make the final decision regarding the nature of security guarantees the US will offer.
The first day of trilateral negotiations among Russia, the US, and Ukraine concluded on 10 November in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, with the meeting lasting more than four hours.
According to Politico, the parties plan to address territorial matters, including borders and lines of contact, on 11 November during the second day of negotiations.
Sources speaking to the publication stated that resolving the territorial issue and the future security mechanisms of Ukraine and Europe are interconnected and must be discussed in parallel.
“It is obvious that the current system does not work. We need to create something new that will work effectively today,” one source said.
According to Politico and the Financial Times, American negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner plan to invite Europeans to join the negotiations after the trilateral meeting concludes.
“We need Europe at the negotiating table,” a source told Politico.
The Financial Times source likewise stressed that European participation is essential to reach an agreement aimed at ending the conflict.
European capitals fear that Moscow and Washington could agree on security guarantees for Ukraine and the continent’s new security architecture without the involvement of European Union (EU) and NATO allies.
Furthermore, the issue of EU participation in talks resolving the conflict in Ukraine has caused differences of opinion between Moscow and European capitals.
Russia previously stated that the EU currently has no place at the negotiating table due to its stance on the conflict.
Russia
US raises NATO-style guarantees for Kyiv ahead of Abu Dhabi talks
US President Donald Trump’s administration has asked the Russian side whether Moscow objects to granting Ukraine security guarantees akin to NATO’s Article 5 on collective defence, and to having such guarantees provided directly by the alliance itself.
According to a Financial Times report citing a US official, the final decision on the nature of the US security guarantees will be made by US President Donald Trump.
The US official said the White House is seeking Russia’s consent for multilateral negotiations that would also include European representatives.
“At this stage, we firmly believe Europe must be part of the negotiations to end the war,” the official said on the matter.
According to the report, prior to the trilateral talks, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner will hold consultations with representatives from Ukraine, the European Union, NATO, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy.
Rustem Umerov, representing the Ukrainian delegation, also confirmed that Kyiv will hold separate coordination meetings with European partners in Abu Dhabi to align positions and subsequent steps.
The newspaper reported that while European diplomats are sceptical about the prospects of a breakthrough in the Abu Dhabi talks, they consider participation in the diplomatic process essential to support Ukraine and prevent broader European security issues from being addressed without their involvement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in late October that talks held in Oslo between Ukraine, EU countries, and US representatives discussed granting Kyiv security guarantees similar to the provisions of NATO’s Article 5 collective defence clause.
In February, Zelenskyy described credible guarantees for Kyiv as the “only real basis” for peace.
The issue of security guarantees will form one of the agenda items at the trilateral negotiations between Russia, the US, and Ukraine, scheduled for 10-11 November in Abu Dhabi.
These contacts mark the first trilateral meeting in roughly nine months, following the previous round held in Geneva in February.
Presidential Aide Vladimir Medinsky will head the Russian delegation at the talks, while the US side will be represented by the president’s special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Rustem Umerov will lead the Ukrainian delegation.
Moscow insists that the future security guarantees slated for discussion at the meetings must also cover Russia.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that guarantees can only be mutual.
At the beginning of the year, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko stated that security guarantees for Russia are an essential component in reaching a peace agreement on Ukraine.
“We accept that a peaceful settlement in Ukraine must take Ukraine’s security interests into account, but the key issue is, of course, Russia’s security interests,” Grushko said.
Russia
Putin proposes Arctic energy cooperation to US to ease gas sanctions
Following a diesel arrangement with the US and the prospect of expanding Russian fertiliser shipments, Moscow is offering Washington joint cooperation in the Arctic.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow is considering the possibility of working together with US partners in the Arctic region.
Speaking at the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) summit, Putin described the regional situation:
“We are actively working in the Arctic, which I mentioned, with many countries around the world, and we are interested in joint work. Until very recently, our European partners and our Chinese partners were working alongside us at our fields. Now we are considering the possibility of joint work with American partners.”
So, which fields could a partnership between the two countries in the Arctic encompass, and what could Moscow offer Washington in exchange for lifting sanctions on Russian gas? Liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects stand at the heart of the matter.
European companies pulled out of Russian gas projects such as Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2 due to sanctions imposed on Russia after 2022.
According to Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and the National Energy Security Fund (NESF) who spoke to the Vzglyad newspaper, cooperation with Chinese companies moved to a new dimension following the departure of the Europeans.
Two Chinese shareholders, CNPC and CNOOC, are involved in the Arctic LNG 2 project. Initially, both companies froze their participation out of concern over US sanctions targeting the venture.
Mikhail Vakilyan, an expert at the Institute for the Development of Fuel and Energy Complex Technologies, told Vzglyad that Beijing did not alter its policy, but rather that Chinese firms CNPC and CNOOC simply did not want to risk their access to the US dollar.
Yet, a year and a half later, the picture shifted entirely. In the second half of 2025, China began purchasing gas from the sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 facility and dedicated a standalone terminal to the project.
Furthermore, it opened a second terminal this year serving exclusively Russian LNG.
China even resumed module deliveries needed to complete the third train of Arctic LNG 2, despite having halted shipments previously.
Moscow seeks markets and turbines, offering technology for Alaska
Despite all these developments, Russia’s expectations from the US in the Arctic remain clear. Mikhail Vakilyan summarised this requirement:
“Russia needs two things: first, markets; and second, hardware. Lifting sanctions on Arctic LNG 2 and its gas carriers will bring back buyers in Japan, India, and South East Asia, eliminating the discount currently enjoyed by China as the sole customer. As for hardware, the turbines driving the liquefaction compressors at Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2 are manufactured by the US company Baker Hughes. Maintenance, spare parts, and modernization for these machines are blocked by US export bans.”
Igor Yushkov viewed the process through the lens of a political and economic trade-off:
“The exact same scheme seen in the diesel agreement is operating here. In exchange for easing anti-Russian sanctions and putting pressure on Ukraine, we are offering the US mutually beneficial projects and broader economic cooperation. We are showing that this cooperation can be versatile across various fields such as diesel, fertilisers, LNG, and similar sectors.”
The tangible offer Russia could present to the US in the LNG sector in exchange for sanctions relief is technological support for an LNG plant to be built in Alaska, referring to the $25 billion Polar LNG project.
Yushkov explained the card held by Russian energy company Novatek:
“Novatek possesses a technological solution applied at Arctic LNG 2 that would also suit the LNG project in Alaska. These are reinforced concrete gravity-based structures carrying liquefaction equipment; essentially floating LNG factories. Novatek has already built two such platforms alongside their equipment and established an offshore super-structure construction centre in Belokamenka. The issue is that both this centre and the Arctic LNG 2 plant itself fell under US sanctions. Therefore, in exchange for lifting sanctions at least on the super-structure construction centre, we could build such a facility for Alaska.”
According to the expert, Russia could cast the reinforced concrete platform at this centre in Belokamenka, install the LNG plant atop it, and tow it to Alaska once completed.
Because building from scratch in the Arctic itself is both costly and creates constraints regarding time and equipment transport, this method offers a much simpler solution.
Nevertheless, Yushkov warned that the plan is not finalised:
“Owing to numerous sanctions-related issues and questions surrounding the project’s economics, it is not certain this scenario will materialize; however, the Americans are still interested in our technologies for Alaska, and Russia is stating it can capitalize on this and deliver it.”
Conversely, Yushkov recalled that Russia remains the primary rival to the US, particularly in the gas sector, and that the US administration has systematically squeezed Russian gas out of the European market in recent years.
According to the expert, helping US LNG capture the market share lost by Russia is hardly a brilliant idea.
Europe’s 2027 ban, China price talks, and rare earth metals
Arctic LNG 2 is not the only Russian project that could benefit from potential cooperation with the US; a new opening could also emerge for Yamal LNG, which is unaffected by US sanctions.
The crux here is not sanctions, but the European Union’s upcoming ban on all Russian LNG shipments starting from 1 January 2027.
Vakilyan explained the approaching risk and a potential solution using figures:
“In the first half of the year, Europe took nearly the entire output of the plant, amounting to 9.89 million tonnes. In two months, these volumes will need a new route and a new buyer; a US trading company appears very well suited for this role.”
Another winner in the equation could be Gazprom, which is conducting negotiations with China for the Power of Baikal pipeline, formerly known as Power of Siberia 2.
Vakilyan said: “Cooperation with the US is Russia’s trump card in price negotiations. China has long negotiated with Gazprom assuming Russian gas has nowhere else to go; an American company in the Arctic would disrupt that calculation.”
Viewed from a wider perspective, Russia and the US share two additional points of contact: oil projects and rare earth metals.
The Vostok Oil project, which awaits the lifting of sanctions on Rosneft, is the first among them.
Vakilyan listed the other areas:
“It is impossible to make headway on the Pobeda shelf, which could not be developed since 2014, without the Americans; that site requires subsea production complexes and drilling services in icy seas, where US companies are strongest. Another issue not apparent at first glance is rare metals. The Trump administration is seeking them across the globe, and Tomtor, one of the largest rare earth metal deposits, lies in the Arctic region of Yakutia.”
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