Diplomacy
Polish PM urges Türkiye to take larger role in Ukraine peace talks

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that he had made “historic progress” with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whom he met in Ankara on Wednesday, and that he had tried to persuade the Turkish leader to play a role in achieving peace between Ukraine and Russia.
“I approached President Erdoğan with a clear proposal that Türkiye should take on as much joint responsibility as possible in the peace process,” Tusk said.
Tusk’s visit to Ankara followed a meeting on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia between Ukrainian and US officials, where the two countries agreed on a 30-day emergency ceasefire proposal, provided Russia accepts it.
“Türkiye and Poland want a just peace to be achieved. We all know what a just peace means. We see the results of the first phase of the talks between our American and Ukrainian friends, which ended in Saudi Arabia, in the same way,” Tusk said.
Erdoğan also advocated for “a just end” to the war, declaring that they were ready to provide a venue for peace talks and to provide any assistance possible.
The President of Türkiye underlined that European Union membership remains Türkiye’s strategic goal and that the bloc should accept Türkiye as a full member to “avoid loss of power and importance.”
Tusk said that Warsaw would work “to make the European perspective more and more viable for Türkiye and to be taken seriously by all partners in Europe.”
Türkiye has the second largest army in NATO, while Poland is the third largest power.
Poland has the largest defense budget in the alliance as a percentage of its gross domestic product and is spending billions of dollars to modernize and expand its military.
Tusk also said that Poland is ready to cooperate with Türkiye “both in defense and in the defense industry.”
Erdoğan stated that he and Tusk exchanged views on regional issues, including Syria and Palestine, along with “developments regarding the future of European security.”
Noting that he found Ukraine’s acceptance of the ceasefire “positive and important,” Erdoğan said that he now hoped that Russia would “respond constructively” to this step. “Our hope is that our region will get out of the predicament it has been in for a long time, and achieve peace and stability,” he said.
Stating that Türkiye and Poland are partners in the field of defense industry, Tusk described the relations between the two countries as “cooperation between two very strong partners.”
Tusk emphasized that he was sure that they would work together to rebuild Syria, adding, “Of course, Türkiye’s role in the reconstruction of Syria and ensuring stability cannot be denied.”
Pointing out that the relations between Poland and the US are good, Tusk said that he hoped that these joint efforts would be accepted by many common countries.
Diplomacy
Armenia signals potential complete withdrawal from CSTO

Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan announced that Yerevan might decide to withdraw entirely from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) if member states fail to “demonstrate a clear political stance” regarding Azerbaijan’s actions. Kostanyan emphasized that Armenia is no longer making insinuations but is speaking very openly.
According to the Novosti-Armenia news agency, Kostanyan stated, “Ultimately, if our partners in the CSTO, including the Russian Federation, do not make the political statements that were mentioned several years ago after the aggression against the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, then Armenia will make a final decision.”
The Deputy Minister also underscored that Armenia, as a sovereign state, will determine the right time for its next steps.
Membership was frozen
Relations between Armenia, Russia, and the CSTO deteriorated following the conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, after which Yerevan formally requested support from its allies.
Following this process, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan repeatedly criticized the CSTO for not assisting Yerevan.
Pashinyan described the organization as a “bubble alliance,” claiming it was “planning a war” against Armenia alongside Baku.
Last February, Prime Minister Pashinyan announced that Armenia had frozen its participation in the CSTO. By May, the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that the country would refuse to finance the organization’s activities.
Intelligence report points in the same direction
In January of this year, a public report released by the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service stated that the country has no intention of returning to full participation in the CSTO in the near future.
The report noted, “We find it highly unlikely that the reasons that led to Armenia suspending its membership will change in 2025. Based on this situation, the organization’s prestige continues to be seriously questioned and has become a ’cause for reflection’ for other member countries.”
Diplomacy
BRICS internal trade volume hits the $1 trillion mark

Kirill Dmitriev, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation and CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), announced that the internal trade volume among BRICS countries has reached $1 trillion.
In a statement on his Telegram channel, Dmitriev noted that surpassing this significant milestone confirms the strengthening of economic ties between member states and the bloc’s growing role in shaping the new global economic architecture.
He also emphasized that Russia continues to strengthen trade relations, particularly through the BRICS Business Council, in line with the directives of President Vladimir Putin.
BRICS’ share will continue to grow, Putin says
During a plenary session at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 20, Russian President Vladimir Putin recalled that at the beginning of the 21st century, BRICS countries accounted for only one-fifth of the global economy, whereas today this figure has reached 40%.
The Russian leader stated that this share will continue to grow, describing it as a “medical fact.” According to Putin, this growth will primarily be driven by the countries of the Global South.
In April, Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia, also said that the BRICS countries, operating on principles of consensus, have become a key force in the world economy.
BRICS expansion agenda
Initially composed of five countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—BRICS expanded in 2024 with the inclusion of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran, Ethiopia, and Egypt.
In January of this year, Indonesia became the bloc’s tenth full member.
Diplomacy
Xi Jinping to miss BRICS summit in Rio for the first time

Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend the upcoming BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro next week.
According to multiple sources cited by the South China Morning Post on Tuesday, this marks the first time Xi will miss the gathering of leaders from major emerging economies.
Officials familiar with the matter stated that Beijing informed the Brazilian government of a scheduling conflict. Premier Li Qiang is expected to lead the Chinese delegation in Xi’s place, a similar arrangement to the 2023 G20 summit in India.
Chinese officials involved in the preparations suggested Xi’s absence is due to his two meetings with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva within the past year. The first occurred during the G20 summit and a state visit to Brasília last November, while the second took place at the China-CELAC forum in Beijing this May.
Xi has never before missed a BRICS summit. In 2023, he was scheduled to deliver a speech at the meeting in South Africa but, at the last minute, sent Commerce Minister Wang Wentao instead. Beijing provided no official explanation for the change.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Xi participated in BRICS meetings virtually, with Russia hosting in 2020 and China in 2021.
On Tuesday, the Brazilian Foreign Ministry told the Post it “would not comment on the internal deliberations of foreign delegations.” The Chinese embassy in Brazil did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told the Brazilian newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, “information regarding participation in the summit will be shared at the appropriate time.” Guo added that China supports Brazil’s BRICS presidency and aims to “promote deeper cooperation” among member nations. “In a volatile and turbulent world, the BRICS countries are maintaining their strategic resolve and working together for global peace, stability, and development,” he said.
In Brasília, officials have not concealed their disappointment regarding Xi’s absence. A source informed the Post that Lula had traveled to Beijing in May as a “show of goodwill” and had hoped “the Chinese president would reciprocate the gesture by attending the Rio summit.”
There was also speculation that Lula’s invitation to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a state dinner after the BRICS summit may have influenced Beijing’s decision, as Xi might have been “perceived as a supporting actor” at the event.
Lula’s special adviser for international relations, Celso Amorim, met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing, where he clearly expressed Brazil’s desire to host Xi. “I told them, ‘BRICS without China is not BRICS,'” Amorim stated, recalling that then-President Hu Jintao attended the first BRICS summit in Brazil despite a major earthquake in China at the time. “He only stayed for one day, but he came.”
Amorim emphasized the particular importance of Xi’s attendance in the current global context, citing the “US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization” as a “violation of international rules.”
Premier Li is expected to arrive in Brazil next weekend for the summit, which is scheduled for July 6 and 7 in Rio.
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