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‘Russian agents’ controversy in Azerbaijan: Why are former ministers under fire?

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Erkin Öncan — Journalist

While not currently a major topic in the Turkish press, a debate concerning alleged “Russian agents” has been ongoing in Azerbaijan for some time. Media outlets close to the government, in particular, have been discussing a supposed group of “Russian agents.” It is even claimed that this “agent group” was the primary reason for the closure of the “Russian House,” which was officially shut down due to “lack of legal registration.”

Notably, this group allegedly includes high-ranking figures such as former Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov; Ramiz Makhdiyev, a close associate of Haydar Aliyev known as the “grey cardinal”; former Head of National Security Eldar Makhmudov; former Minister of Culture Abulfas Garayev; and former Minister of Youth and Sports Azad Rahimov. [Note: Grey Cardinal is a term used for people who have great power and influence behind the scenes, but are not very visible in public].

What happened?

Earlier this month, the pro-government Azerbaijani news agency Qafqazinfo reported that “a network serving Moscow’s interests has been identified in the country” and that “the activities of Rossotrudnichestvo (Russian House) in Baku have been suspended.”

Other pro-government media outlets quickly disseminated the news, asserting that the individuals in question received instructions from Russian intelligence and attempted to influence socio-political processes in Azerbaijan through a network of agents.

Although Qafqazinfo presented the news with the caveat, “However, the information reaching Qafqazinfo leaves no doubt that such a structure really exists,” there has been no official statement confirming the launch of any investigation into the matter.

Another press organization, however, reported the veracity of the “spy group” allegations with these statements:

“The fact that these people are no longer on duty does not mean that the relations have disappeared. There are still those who go to the representative of Russian intelligence and receive instructions, send false messages to our society, and try to create division.”

Political scientist Natig Miri, speaking to Crossmedia.az, claimed that Russia’s “spy network” strategy is not unique to Azerbaijan but is employed in “almost all embassies and consulates”:

Natig Miri said, “However, it is not limited to political elites. There are also such people among the leaders of non-governmental organizations, media outlets and political scientists. In a sense, they are trying to ‘wash Russia’s hands’. In Azerbaijan, it is imperative to identify, expose and remove such persons from their positions in the government and society.”

“The man who writes has no mind”

The accused individuals have vehemently denied the allegations. Mammadyarov responded to the claims by stating, “Some people have a stomach ache. The man who writes has no mouth.” Mammadyarov further questioned, “I was educated in Ukraine, Russia and the US. Does this mean that they should call me an agent of these countries?”

The crash of AZAL’s Embraer 190 aircraft on December 25 near Aktau, Kazakhstan, during a Baku-Grozni flight, reignited tensions between the two countries.

Azerbaijani officials had confirmed the claim that the plane was attacked by the Russian “Pantsir-S” air defense system in the incident, which resulted in the deaths of 38 people. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin apologized to Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev for the incident, it highlighted how relations, which have fluctuated in the post-Soviet period, could escalate into open tension.

Due to historical ties and geopolitical dynamics, Azerbaijan’s relationship with Russia is constantly evolving, sometimes strained but difficult to sever completely. Relations between the two countries are founded on pragmatism and a balance of interests.

However, two significant issues distinguish Azerbaijan, a former Soviet country, from its peers: Russia’s position in the Karabakh Crisis and relations with Israel.

In certain respects, the same alignment found in every former Soviet country also applies to Azerbaijan. A significant portion of the nationalist and liberal sectors in Azerbaijan, similar to Georgia and Ukraine, are inclined to shed the Soviet past and establish closer ties with the West. This makes it easier for these forces to align with Western-backed political groups.

On the other hand, the Karabakh crisis, which has persisted since the 1990s and was “recently” resolved in Azerbaijan’s favor, has resulted in a prolonged Russian military presence in the region. Although the Azerbaijani government has not voiced any serious objections to Russia’s political and military presence, this presence has consistently been a source of unease for the government’s electoral base, namely the nationalist/conservative segments of the country.

In other words, regarding Russian relations, the Azerbaijani government has consistently allowed its electorate and affiliated media outlets to express sentiments that it cannot officially voice due to its current balancing strategy. This serves the dual purpose of appeasing domestic politics and sending an unofficial message. This dichotomy is often observable in Turkey’s foreign policy as well.

Relations with Israel

Azerbaijan’s strategic partnership with Israel, or rather, Israel’s interest in Azerbaijan, is naturally linked to Azerbaijan’s geographical location in the South Caucasus, its proximity to Russia and Iran, and its oil reserves.

The fact that Azerbaijan represents, to put it mildly, “an alternative” to Russia and Iran in the region is a well-known fact, even if it is not often explicitly stated.

However, this relationship does not entirely sever Baku’s dependence on Russia, even though it irritates Moscow and Tehran. In the first six months of 2024, the volume of trade between the two countries more than doubled, increasing 2.5 times to exceed $8.3 billion.

Azerbaijan’s share in foreign trade volume with Russia in 2024 is 10.1%, its share in exports is 4.4%, its share in exports of non-oil/gas products is 34.6%, and its share in imports is 17.2%.

While the media discussed “Russian agents” in Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev, on February 11, approved an agreement signed in late 2024 to expand the North-South corridor linking Iran and Russia through Azerbaijan. The 2024 bilateral agreement provides for the modernization of road and rail infrastructure to accommodate growing trade volumes.

In another meeting held three days ago in the Iranian capital, Tehran, Azerbaijani, Russian, and Iranian officials reportedly agreed on a plan to construct the Rasht-Astara railway on Iranian territory.

Russian companies remain active in Azerbaijan’s energy and infrastructure projects, while Baku provides Moscow with a transit corridor for the transportation of gas and oil. Simultaneously, however, Azerbaijan aims to reduce its dependence on Russia by developing alternative routes through projects such as the Southern Gas Corridor and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline.

From the perspective of both Russia and Azerbaijan, the current relationship is characterized by a partnership of interests. Considering the figures, it can be inferred that the discussions regarding “Russian influence” in Azerbaijan are primarily directed at domestic public opinion rather than Russia for the time being, and that the “Russian agent” accusations against senior officials reflect internal political calculations.

Diplomacy

US buyers bypass China’s critical mineral ban via Thailand and Mexico

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According to customs and shipping records, an extraordinary flow of antimony—a metal used in batteries, chips, and flame retardants—began entering the US from Thailand and Mexico after China banned shipments to the US last year. Records obtained by Reuters indicate that at least one Chinese company is involved in this trade, revealing how US buyers of critical minerals are circumventing China’s export ban.

China dominates the supply of antimony, as well as gallium and germanium, which are crucial for telecommunications, semiconductors, and military technology. On December 3, Beijing banned the export of these minerals to the US following pressure from Washington on China’s chip sector.

Trade data suggests that US shipments are being rerouted through third countries, a situation that Chinese officials have acknowledged. This assessment was confirmed by executives from two US companies, who told Reuters they have sourced restricted minerals from China in recent months.

According to US customs data, the US imported 3,834 metric tons of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico between December and April. This volume is nearly greater than the total from the previous three years combined. Meanwhile, Chinese customs data shows that Thailand and Mexico have become top-three destinations for China’s antimony exports this year. Neither country ranked in the top 10 in 2023, the last full year before Beijing imposed the restrictions.

According to the consulting firm RFC Ambrian, there is only one antimony smelter across both Thailand and Mexico, with the Mexican facility having reopened in April. Neither country mines significant quantities of the metal. Despite higher prices, US imports of antimony, gallium, and germanium this year are on pace to meet or exceed pre-ban levels.

Ram Ben Tzion, co-founder and CEO of the digital shipment inspection platform Publican, stated that while there is clear evidence of transshipment, the trade data does not allow for the identification of the specific companies involved. “This is a pattern we’ve seen, and it’s consistent,” he told Reuters, adding that Chinese companies are “extremely creative in circumventing regulations.”

In May, China’s Ministry of Commerce stated that some unspecified foreign entities were “collaborating with domestic smugglers” to bypass export restrictions, declaring that halting such activities was essential for national security. The ministry did not respond to Reuters‘ questions regarding the shift in trade flows since December. The US Department of Commerce, Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce, and Mexico’s Ministry of Economy also did not respond to similar inquiries.

US law does not prohibit American buyers from purchasing antimony, gallium, or germanium of Chinese origin. Chinese firms are permitted to ship these minerals to countries other than the US if they possess the necessary licenses.

Levi Parker, CEO and founder of the US-based company Gallant Metals, told Reuters that he sources approximately 200 kg of gallium from China each month. He declined to identify the parties involved, citing potential repercussions. The process begins with purchasing agents in China who procure the materials from manufacturers. A shipping company then relabels the packages as iron, zinc, or art supplies and routes them through another Asian country.

Parker noted that these workarounds are neither perfect nor cheap. He explained that he would like to import 500 kg regularly, but larger shipments risk scrutiny, prompting Chinese logistics firms to be “very careful” due to the associated risks.

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Diplomacy

BlackRock halts work on Ukraine reconstruction fund amid Trump uncertainty

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US-based BlackRock, the world’s largest investment company, has reportedly halted its efforts to find investors for a planned reconstruction fund for Ukraine.

According to a report by Bloomberg that cited sources familiar with the matter, the decision is driven by uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine.

The fund was scheduled to be unveiled at a conference on Ukraine’s reconstruction on July 10-11, an event attended by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Sources indicated that the initiative was close to securing initial support from entities linked to the governments of Germany, Italy, and Poland.

However, with the possibility of Trump returning to the White House in January, BlackRock has decided to temporarily suspend its discussions with institutional investors, citing uncertainty about future support for Ukraine.

Alternative plan from France

Bloomberg has also learned that France is now developing an alternative plan, which includes creating a new fund to replace the initiative that BlackRock has suspended. The effectiveness of this new plan without US participation, however, remains a significant question.

A BlackRock representative stated that the company completed its pro bono advisory work for the Ukraine project in 2024 and currently has “no active commitments” to the Ukrainian government.

“The only discussions that influence BlackRock’s decisions are those the firm has with its clients,” the representative emphasized.

The fund’s $15 billion target

BlackRock Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand, who was previously involved in the negotiations, had announced plans to attract at least $500 million from governments, international development banks, and other public donors, along with approximately $2 billion from private investors.

According to Hildebrand, uniting investors under a single consortium would have enabled the direction of at least $15 billion in equity and debt investments toward Ukraine’s reconstruction.

The World Bank estimates that the total cost for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction exceeds €500 billion. Rebuilding the country’s port infrastructure alone is projected to require at least €1 billion.

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BRICS summit condemns attack on Iran, demands Gaza ceasefire

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At the 17th BRICS Summit, which began Sunday in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, military attacks against Iran were condemned, and a call was made for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

As the summit continued, US President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs on countries supporting BRICS policies.

A joint statement released by the group declared that the military attacks on Iran were a “violation of international law and the Charter of the United Nations (UN).”

Trump threatens tariffs on countries supporting BRICS

While the BRICS summit was underway, US President Donald Trump announced on the social media platform Truth Social that a 10% additional tariff would be imposed on countries that decide to support the group’s “anti-American policy.” Trump stated, “There will be no exceptions.”

Previously, Trump had threatened to impose a 100% tariff on the products of BRICS countries if they created an alternative currency to the dollar.

The US President had said, “BRICS has zero chance of replacing the American dollar in international trade. Any country that tries to do so can wave goodbye to America.” After this threat, Trump claimed that BRICS was “dead.”

Attack on Iran a ‘violation of international law’

The BRICS communiqué expressed “deep concern” over the escalating security situation in the Middle East and the deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructure and peaceful nuclear facilities.

The group emphasized its support for diplomatic initiatives aimed at resolving regional challenges and called on the UN Security Council (UNSC) to address the issue.

Call for immediate ceasefire in Gaza, compliance in Lebanon

The statement also reiterated concern over the situation in the occupied Palestinian territories as Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip continue.

The text condemned all violations of international law, particularly international humanitarian law and human rights law, drawing special attention to the use of starvation as a method of warfare.

The parties were urged to engage in further negotiations in good faith to achieve an immediate, permanent, and unconditional ceasefire. Additionally, “unwavering” support for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) was affirmed.

The communiqué expressed satisfaction with the ceasefire in Lebanon and called on all parties to “strictly adhere to its terms.”

Ongoing violations of the ceasefire and of Lebanon’s sovereignty and territorial integrity were condemned.

The statement called on Israel to “respect the terms agreed upon with the Lebanese government and withdraw its occupying forces from all Lebanese territory.”

‘We are committed to Syria’s territorial integrity’

BRICS also affirmed its commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity, and territorial integrity of Syria. It called for a Syrian-led, peaceful, and inclusive political process based on the principles of UNSC Resolution 2254.

The partial occupation of some parts of Syria was strongly condemned, with a call for Israel to withdraw its forces without delay. The threat posed by the presence of foreign terrorist fighters in Syria was also condemned.

BRICS has a responsibility to defend international law, Araghchi declared

Speaking at the summit, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that BRICS has a responsibility to defend international law and multilateralism, and to support the fundamental principles of the UN, from the equality of states to the rejection of the use of force and the peaceful resolution of disputes.

Araghchi stated that the attack on Iran was “a result of the absolute impunity granted by the US and some European countries for the Israeli regime to commit crimes without accountability.”

Stating that both Israel and the US must be held accountable for their violations of international law, Araghchi warned that the consequences of this attack would not be limited to his country but would spread throughout the entire region and even beyond.

The Iranian minister expressed that “the security dilemma in the region will not be resolved as long as Israel’s illegal tendencies are encouraged by its supporters.”

Noting that residential areas and military bases were targeted in the attacks, and that military leaders, soldiers, academics, and scientists were killed, Araghchi stressed Tehran’s determination to document the war crimes committed.

Araghchi added that “Iran will not abandon its demand for justice and compensation” and that his country “will continue to defend itself with all its might against any future attacks.”

The unipolar world is a thing of the past, says Putin

Participating in the summit via video conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the world is witnessing profound changes and that the unipolar system of international relations “is a thing of the past.”

Calling for the strengthening of cooperation among BRICS countries, Putin expressed his hope for expanding the use of national currencies.

Putin stated that all member countries “stand for the principles of equality, good neighborliness, and traditional values,” adding, “The influence and position of BRICS are growing every year, and it has rightfully become one of the main centers of the global system.”

The Russian leader noted that the group “significantly surpasses” other blocs like the G7 in terms of purchasing power parity.

The UNSC must be reformed, says Lula da Silva

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva warned that the UN is in danger of “losing credibility and becoming paralyzed.”

Lula da Silva called for the UNSC to be reformed by “adding new permanent members from the Global South.” He stated that this is not just a matter of justice but also “a guarantee for the survival of the UN.”

The Brazilian leader also warned of a potential nuclear catastrophe and urged world leaders not to ignore the “genocide” committed by Israel in the Gaza Strip.

He emphasized that a solution is only possible “with the end of the occupation and the establishment of a Palestinian state.”

Lavrov supports Araghchi

On the sidelines of the summit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, Araghchi. Lavrov reiterated his country’s position condemning the illegal attacks against Iran, including those on peaceful nuclear facilities.

Emphasizing the importance of taking effective steps to prevent the escalation of tensions in the region, Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to assist, including at the UNSC level.

The global rise of BRICS

BRICS was initially coined as the acronym BRIC by Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O’Neill to describe the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China.

These countries formed an informal club in 2009. With the inclusion of South Africa in 2010, the group became known as BRICS. The group expanded in 2023 with the addition of Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE, and Indonesia joined at the beginning of 2025.

Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), stated during the summit in Brazil that the era of the Global South has begun.

Dmitriev noted that BRICS countries account for half of global economic growth, about 45% of the world’s population, and approximately 40% of global GDP, while the G7’s share remains at 29%.

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