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The rise of BRICS: The end of dollar dominance in global economic arena

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In the current changing world, the BRICS group has emerged as a new player in the global political and economic arena. The key players in this group are Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, and other countries have recently joined this group, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Ethiopia.

This variety of countries has increased the strength of this group in terms of politics, economy and geography. These countries, which account for more than 45pc of the world’s population and 26.98pc of the world’s gross domestic product, play an important role in global political and economic developments. In this sense, BRICS is considered as an influential factor in economic and political developments.

The tendency of new countries to join this platform shows their desire to reduce their dependence on the US dollar and western markets. Thus, BRICS seeks to create a common currency to strengthen economic cooperation and facilitate trade between member countries, which can replace the dollar in economic exchanges in the future.

Reducing dependence on the dollar:

The dominance of the US dollar over the world economy began after the end of World War II and the establishment of the Bretton Woods system in 1944, in which the dollar was introduced as the main currency for international trade, but this dominance ended with the abandonment of the gold standard in 1971.

Therefore, one of the main goals of the BRICS countries to create a common currency is to reduce dependence on the US dollar as a global currency and its dominance in international trade. BRICS member countries seek to remain immune from currency fluctuations and US economic sanctions.

The strength of economic cooperation: 

The creation of a common currency can help facilitate trade between BRICS countries and prevent additional costs related to currency conversion.

This issue can increase the competitiveness of the goods and services of member countries in domestic and foreign markets and promote regional trade in a faster and cheaper way. Increasing trade between member countries directly contributes to economic growth.

Strengthening the political position:

The BRICS countries seek to strengthen their position in the international arena and reduce the influence of Western powers and challenge the dominance of the dollar. A common currency can help strengthen international cooperation and representation of these countries in the global financial system. Building stronger ties between member states can also help strengthen them on the world stage.

Attracting and facilitating investment:

By creating a common currency and ensuring financial stability, the attraction of foreign investment will be boosted. Foreign investors can easily cooperate in many projects both independently and jointly because challenges related to costs and other currency conversion problems have been resolved, this will help facilitate trade and investment for BRICS members.

An introduction to the prerequisites for creating a new currency for BRICS members

Creating a common currency for BRICS members can help strengthen economic cooperation and reduce dependence on traditional currencies such as the US dollar.

However, certain prerequisites are necessary for this initiative to succeed. These prerequisites include strong economic cooperation among the member countries, political stability, creating a coherent financial system and suitable legal arrangements for the diverse economy of the members.

Providing these above conditions can pave the way for the adoption and effective use of the new currency and help to strengthen the position of BRICS in the global financial system.

Prerequisites:

To create a common currency, the BRICS countries need certain conditions, including providing a suitable platform for strong economic cooperation among the member countries, economic diversity, cohesion to create a financial system, and political stability, which is the most important pillar of this prerequisite. In order for the new currency to be implemented, the member countries must reach full economic convergence. This convergence includes common understanding and agreement on financial, commercial and economic policies.

Political support:

Creating a common currency requires strong political support from the BRICS leaders. Despite the symbolic support for the new currency at the meeting of the BRICS members in Russia, the members of the group must remain steadfast on the political support of this issue, otherwise it can cause difficulties in the process of this joint project.

Challenges: Major differences in size and economic structure

One of the main challenges in creating a BRICS common currency is the economic and financial differences between member countries.

BRICS countries have different economic structures and these differences can lead to conflicts in financial and currency policies.

For example, China and India as larger and faster growing economies in BRICS will have a high capacity to influence common policies, while the economies of Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran are dependent on natural gas and oil resources.

Brazil and South Africa both have smaller economies and are relatively dependent on certain industries such as agriculture, mining and raw materials.

Ethiopia is a country that has one of the highest economic growth rates in Africa, and agriculture plays an important role in the Ethiopian economy, and this country is recently trying to become a commercial and industrial center in East Africa.

As the second largest economy in the world, China is considered the largest and most industrialized economy and the driving force of BRICS, which undoubtedly plays a dominant role in the economy of this group.

This situation can lead to more dependence of member countries on China and economic differences between members; Because smaller countries may not be able to keep up with the speed of growth and economic complexity of China.

AMERICA

Fed cuts interest rates, dollar surges to two-year high

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The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by a quarter percentage point but signaled a slower pace of easing next year. This move drove the U.S. dollar to its highest level in two years and triggered a sell-off in both domestic and international stock markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted on Wednesday to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4.25–4.5%, marking the third consecutive cut. The lone dissenting vote came from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who favored maintaining the current rates.

Officials highlighted concerns about persistent inflation, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously expected. Reflecting these worries, policymakers also raised their inflation forecasts for the coming year. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jay Powell remarked that the current policy settings were “significantly less restrictive,” indicating the Fed’s inclination to adopt a more cautious approach to further easing.

“This decision was a ‘closer call’ than prior meetings,” Powell noted, emphasizing that inflation trends remain “sideways” while risks to the labor market are “diminishing.”

Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America, described the Fed’s message as “unabashedly hawkish.” He pointed to the shift in officials’ 2025 forecasts, which now anticipate just two quarter-point rate cuts instead of three, calling it a “wholesale shift.”

JPMorgan Chase, a key player in U.S. bond markets, noted that money markets are pricing in only a 0.31 percentage point rate cut in 2025. This outlook, significantly tighter than the bank’s earlier 0.75-point forecast, underscores the magnitude of the Fed’s policy shift.

The decision triggered a sharp sell-off on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 falling 3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropping 3.6%. High-profile winners of the 2024 rally were hit hard, including: Tesla, down 8.3%; Meta (Facebook’s parent company), down 3.6%; Amazon, down 4.6%.

Smaller companies, often seen as more sensitive to US economic fluctuations, also suffered. The Russell 2000 index declined 4.4%.

In Asia, stocks fell in early Thursday trading. Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan dropped 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. government bond prices fell, driving the yield on two-year Treasuries—sensitive to Fed policy—up by 0.11 percentage points to 4.35%.

The U.S. dollar surged 1.2% against a basket of six major currencies, reaching its strongest level since November 2022. According to Wells Fargo senior economist Mike Pugliese, the currency had already been rising on expectations of inflationary pressures following Donald Trump’s election victory last month. However, Wednesday’s Fed decision “poured more petrol on the fire.”

The South Korean won dropped to a 15-year low against the dollar, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.5%.

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Amazon pledges $1 billion to Trump inauguration fund

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Amazon confirmed on Thursday that it will contribute $1 million to Donald Trump’s inauguration fund, a move mirroring similar actions by other major tech companies, including Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram. Amazon also plans to broadcast Trump’s inauguration via its Prime Video service.

This announcement comes as major tech executives seek to establish ties with the incoming U.S. president, despite Trump’s longstanding criticisms of Big Tech. Trump has frequently accused technology companies of censorship and bias against conservative media.

Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and CEO, is reportedly planning to meet Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort next week, according to The Wall Street Journal, which first reported Amazon’s donation. Similarly, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Apple CEO Tim Cook have expressed their congratulations to Trump since his election victory in November.

Trump’s relationship with Amazon has been fraught with challenges. During his first term, he accused the company of undercutting competition and criticized its tax policies. In 2018, Trump ordered a review of U.S. Postal Service package pricing, claiming the agency acted as Amazon’s “courier.”

Apple, meanwhile, faces potential risks from Trump’s proposed tariff policies, which could disrupt critical supply chains in China. However, during Trump’s first term, Cook secured exemptions for certain Apple products.

Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, and other tech leaders have also engaged with Trump. According to The Information, Zuckerberg dined with Trump after the election. Pichai is also expected to meet Trump this week.

While Trump scrutinized Big Tech during his presidency, Amazon now faces mounting regulatory pressure under President Joe Biden. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), led by Lina Khan, has been investigating Amazon for alleged monopoly practices, with several states filing lawsuits last year. The FTC is also examining major cloud service providers, including Amazon, over partnerships in artificial intelligence.

Despite earlier conflicts, Bezos recently praised Trump for his “tremendous grace and courage under real fire” in a post on X (formerly Twitter) following an assassination attempt. Bezos, who also owns The Washington Post, reportedly prevented the newspaper from endorsing Trump’s Democratic opponent Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

Speculation about a tacit agreement between Bezos and Trump has surfaced, allegedly tied to Blue Origin, Bezos’s rocket company competing with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

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Investors poured $140 billion into U.S. equities following Trump’s victory

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Nearly $140 billion has flowed into U.S. equity funds since last month’s election, as investors anticipate Donald Trump’s administration will implement sweeping tax cuts and regulatory reforms.

According to the Financial Times (FT), which cites data from EPFR, U.S. equity funds have seen inflows totaling $139.5 billion since Trump’s victory on November 5. This surge in investment made November the busiest month for equity inflows since records began in 2000.

The massive influx of funds has driven major U.S. stock indexes to a series of record highs, as investors appeared to shrug off concerns about potential economic risks, including inflation and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

“The growth agenda that Trump has put on the table is being fully embraced,” said Dec Mullarkey, Chief Executive of SLC Management. He added that Trump’s picks for top administration posts have been seen as “very market friendly.”

Trump has promised to fill his administration with financial experts, including Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency advocate, as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The president-elect has outlined a pro-growth agenda, emphasizing reduced taxes, deregulation, and economic expansion. These proposals have spurred optimism among investors, fueling a rally in the market.

The S&P 500, Wall Street’s primary stock market indicator, has risen 5.3% since Election Day, bringing its total gains for the year to 28%. Smaller companies, which are often seen as more responsive to changes in the U.S. economy, have outperformed larger firms during this period. The Russell 2000 index recently hit a record high for the first time in three years.

While U.S. equity funds have enjoyed record inflows, other global markets have experienced outflows emerging market funds have seen net withdrawals of $8 billion, with China-focused funds accounting for $4 billion; funds investing in Western Europe have lost $14 billion; and Japan-focused funds have seen outflows of approximately $6 billion.

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