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Ukrainian counterattack on the “lone wolf” in Kursk

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On 16 August, the Ukrainian army launched a raid on Kursk, which lasted for 10 days without a decision on the outcome, and the Ukrainian army even announced the establishment of an interim administration. From a strategic point of view, this successful tactical raid by Ukraine is a rare event since the beginning of the war, but it is doomed to be a “lone wolf” operation with no impact on the overall situation, whose political significance is greater than its military significance and rather limited, and is not a turning point in the war, but a desperate attempt before the start of ceasefire negotiations.

On 6 August, the Ukrainian army entered the Russian Kursk Oblast from the northern border line in large-scale and regular units, occupying an area of more than 1,000 square kilometres, 35 kilometres deep and 40 kilometres wide, and taking control of 75 settlements within 10 days, forcing the Russian side to urgently evacuate some 120,000 inhabitants. Whereas Kursk and the border areas to the north and south of it, Belgorod and Bryansk, had previously only been attacked by irregular armed groups such as the “Free Russia Legion”, the capture and loss of part of the country by regular troops meant that Russia experienced a similar crisis for the first time since the end of the Second World War, a situation that was both humiliating and degrading compared to the small scale of the casualties.

Kursk suddenly became a new frontline for Russia and Ukraine and a new focus of global attention, described by the Western media as Russia’s biggest defeat since the beginning of the war. For the first time on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, a cross-border dogfight situation has emerged and Russia’s “weaknesses” and soft underbelly in intelligence gathering, strategic foresight, border defence and many other areas have been exposed. Repeated border raids by the Free Russia Legion and the insurgency of the Wagner Group, which easily approached the capital Moscow, did not lead to the optimisation of the Russian army’s defence system outside the main battlefield.

The capture of Kursk by the Ukrainian army has caused a sensation because the city is only 500 kilometres from Moscow. This distance directly explains why Russia has fought so persistently against NATO’s inclusion of Ukraine in its bloc. After five rounds of enlargement, Russia’s traditional ‘security borders’ have shrunk to more than 1,000 kilometres from Moscow, and therefore the constant approach of NATO’s military vehicles towards its western gate has become unacceptable to Russia.

Some observers exaggerate the military value of the Kursk breakthrough, believing that it will be a turning point in the Russian-Ukrainian war. In fact, Kursk is a “city of victory”, reminding NATO that the war against Russia is not easily won. During the Second World War, the Battle of Kursk broke out, Germany and the Soviet Union spent more than 8,000 tanks, more than 5,000 combat aircraft and more than 1.5 million soldiers, but in the end Germany failed and switched from strategic offensive to strategic defence, and the Battle of Kursk became the turning point of the Second World War.

Forbes.com reported that the Ukranian Army used four mechanised brigades and an air assault brigade, with a total strength of about 10,000 soldiers and 600 armoured vehicles. Although Russia remained momentarily passive, it did not panic and did not withdraw large numbers of troops for reinforcement from the Donbass battlefield, but instead withdrew and mobilised new forces to block the offensive. Analysts believe that if the Ukrainian army does not withdraw within two to three weeks, it will be cut off and surrounded by Russian troops, who are adept at drawing the enemy into a deeper and more circuitous battle.

After two and a half years of tough resistance, while Ukraine has consistently expressed a desire for peace talks, it has suddenly launched a remarkable offensive, and there are various interpretations of the tactical and strategic aims of this move. Ukrainian President Zelensky has stated that he wants to force the other side into peace talks by moving the war to Russian territory. This operation was the ‘demonstration’ of Ukraine’s new Chief of the General Staff, Oleksandr Syrskyi, in his first six months in office, and was decided independently, without informing the main allies, such as the US, Germany and the UK, beforehand. In a way, this shows that Ukraine no longer wants to be under the influence of NATO.

A comprehensive assessment reveals that the Ukrainian army’s raid on Kursk had several objectives: First, to boost the morale of its own soldiers and civilians by moving the war to enemy territory, to create panic and war fatigue on the Russian side, and to show NATO that the Ukrainian army is not ‘helpless’. Secondly, to change the passive situation on the Donbas front by redirecting Russian troops to the north, avoiding the real danger, in a kind of ‘weakening the enemy by luring fighters to the North’ strategy. Thirdly, defending some areas or controlling important facilities, forcing Russia to make concessions and gaining an advantage in peace negotiations, for example by controlling the nuclear power plant in Kursk and the Suja natural gas flow to Europe.

Over the past few months, the Russian army has carried out a strategic counter-offensive against Ukraine along the Donbass and has continued to advance the battle line. After two and a half years of war of attrition, Ukraine has come to the conclusion that it is absolutely impossible for NATO to confront Russia directly, if this “European version of the war in Afghanistan” continues, Ukraine’s losses will be even more severe. In addition, the uncertainty of the elections in the US White House and the advocacy by the Republican candidates and former President Trump and his associates Vance of NATO’s reconciliation with Russia, sacrificing Ukraine’s interests, shows that Ukraine cannot escape the fate of being “initially supported and then abandoned” and is therefore increasingly willing to accept peace talks. Whether it is to win Nato’s help and support or to start peace talks with Russia, Ukraine needs a victory to build a strong case.

Despite the loss of Kursk for a time and the embarrassment of Russian “carelessness”, Western observers are generally not optimistic about the risky offensive of the Ukrainian army, calling it a “big gamble”. Ukraine’s greatest weakness is that, due to its insufficient manpower, it does not have the capacity to open a second line of battle and is unlikely to be able to defend large territories for long. Moreover, an attack in depth could lengthen the front line, making it easier for the Russian army to cut off, encircle and destroy Ukrainian troops. Of course, such an eventual defeat in the war could have pushed more national and even foreign forces back in favour of ceasefire negotiations, perhaps to the satisfaction of the Kiev authorities.

War is a process in which comprehensive national power and the combination of various factors determine victory or defeat, not to mention the fact that the Russian-Ukrainian war is part of a complex and protracted Ukrainian crisis and the ultimate instrument of struggle. In the face of the Russian-Ukrainian war, many people are accustomed to assessing gains and losses in terms of “fairness”, ignoring the basic and decisive elements of the war, in particular the sources of war and the battlefield of the two sides; some people assess the Russian-US-European game in Ukraine in terms of values, ignoring the historical lesson that “your fate will be decided by your enemy”.

The reality of the Russia-Ukraine war, which has been going on for two and a half years, shows that Russia, which is engaged in historical confrontations with NATO and even the West and is trying to organise the security environment in Europe, will not easily give up its goal of “special military operations”. While NATO, led by the United States, does not dare to risk a direct military confrontation with Russia, the attempt to defeat Russia on its own territory through proxy wars is proving unsuccessful. The only way to stop the damage for all sides is to declare a ceasefire, end the war and seek peace through negotiations.

*Prof. Ma, Dean of the Institute of Studies for the Mediterranean Rim (ISMR ), Zhejiang International Studies University (Hangzhou). He knows the world affairs well, especially the Islamic and Middle East politics. He has worked for many years as a senior Xinhua correspondent in Kuwait, Palestine and Iraq.

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India’s space sector: A launchpad for global partnerships

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Ambassador Gurjit Singh, former Indian Ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, and the ASEAN and African Union missions

Growing competition in outer space provides India with a unique opportunity to shape a narrative in which collaboration, rather than confrontation, drives space exploration. Recognised as a trustworthy and cost-effective spacefaring nation, India is now well placed to transform its technological advances into enduring international partnerships that contribute to scientific progress, economic growth, and sustainable development.

India’s journey into space has been distinctive. Unlike many space programmes that emerged from Cold War rivalries, India’s programme was conceived as an instrument of national development. Dr. Vikram Sarabhai anchored India’s space vision in practical applications that would improve the lives of ordinary people. Under his leadership, satellites were developed to strengthen communications, weather forecasting, disaster management, healthcare, agriculture and education. This development-oriented philosophy remains central to India’s space programme and resonates strongly with the needs of countries in the Global South, which seek practical applications of space technology rather than prestige alone.

Today, India’s achievements extend  beyond developmental applications. The Chandrayaan missions, the Mars Orbiter Mission, the Aditya-L1 solar observatory, and the forthcoming Gaganyaan human spaceflight programme have established India as a nation capable of executing sophisticated and reliable space missions. Chandrayaan-3’s successful soft landing near the Moon’s south pole placed India among an exclusive group of space powers while demonstrating that world-class innovation can be achieved at comparatively modest cost.

India’s growing credibility comes at a time when the global space economy is expanding rapidly. Valued at over US$600 billion today and projected to approach US$1.8 trillion by 2035, the sector is increasingly driven by commercial activity in satellite communications, Earth observation, navigation, climate services, broadband connectivity, and emerging fields such as in-orbit servicing and lunar exploration. Many countries aspire to participate but lack indigenous capabilities. They seek dependable long-term partners rather than merely launch providers.

India possesses the capabilities to meet these requirements. The liberalisation of the space sector in 2020 transformed the ecosystem by opening it to private participation. The establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorisation Centre (IN-SPACe), the expanding commercial role of NewSpace India Limited, and the growth of private enterprises have created one of the world’s most dynamic emerging space ecosystems. Indian startups are developing launch vehicles, satellite platforms, geospatial applications and propulsion technologies that are attracting global investment and customers. Companies such as Skyroot Aerospace, Pixxel and Agnikul Cosmos have demonstrated that Indian private enterprise can compete internationally in advanced space technologies.

The next step is to internationalise this ecosystem.

Rather than positioning itself only as a low-cost launch destination, India will offer comprehensive partnerships encompassing satellite design, launch services, mission operations, ground stations, astronaut training, capacity building and downstream applications in agriculture, disaster management and maritime security. Such integrated partnerships would be valuable for countries across the Global South and the Indo-Pacific seeking affordable, customised and reliable technologies to meet their development priorities.

India has demonstrated the diplomatic value of such cooperation. Through the South Asia Satellite, it provided communication and developmental benefits to neighbouring countries. Indian launch vehicles have successfully placed hundreds of foreign satellites into orbit for governments, universities and commercial operators around the world. India’s decision to join the Artemis Accords reflects its willingness to participate in the peaceful exploration of the Moon through international collaboration. Cooperation with  NASA, the European Space Agency and JAXA has strengthened India’s scientific and technological capabilities.

These partnerships reinforce India’s standing as a leading voice of the Global South. India offers development partnerships based on affordability, reliability and mutual respect rather than creating technological dependence. Space cooperation has therefore become an increasingly important instrument of Indian diplomacy, strengthening bilateral relationships while delivering tangible developmental benefits.

To realise its full potential, India will aim to sustain the momentum of reform. Faster regulatory approvals, greater access to venture capital, stronger intellectual property protection, and closer collaboration among research institutions, industry and academia will be essential. Public procurement policies would continue supporting Indian startups, enabling them to scale up, innovate and integrate into global supply chains.

India is positioned to play a larger role in shaping the governance of outer space. Orbital congestion, space debris, responsible resource utilisation and equitable access to emerging space opportunities are becoming pressing international concerns. As space activities expand, there will be an increasing need for countries capable of building consensus on responsible norms and practices. India’s long-standing commitment to the peaceful uses of outer space, combined with its growing technological capabilities, equips it to contribute meaningfully to the development of rules that promote transparency, sustainability and equitable access.

The coming decade will determine not only which countries lead in space but also how space is governed. With its scientific capabilities, entrepreneurial ecosystem and international credibility, India is uniquely placed to bridge the gap between established and emerging space nations. By building collaborative partnerships founded on inclusivity, mutual benefit and innovation, India can transform its space programme into a major pillar of its global engagement.

In an increasingly divided world, India’s space sector offers a powerful reminder that the greatest achievements in space are those that bring nations together. That may well become India’s most enduring contribution to humanity’s next frontier.

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Great powers and the fierce rivalry in Africa

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In tandem with the retreat of US imperialism and the erosion of its hegemonic capacity, the rivalry among the world’s great powers is intensifying across vast geographies and divergent fronts alike. From Africa to Central Asia, from electric vehicles to artificial intelligence, an acute contest is unfolding—most conspicuously between the United States and China.

History instructs us that wherever great power rivalry takes root, peace remains elusive. Stability cannot endure there. Wars, internal conflicts, coups d’état, and the mass migrations they inevitably trigger dominate the horizon. Nor do great powers desire the cultivation of participatory democracy, human rights, the rule of law, or class consciousness in these lands. Instead, they bolster dictatorships, authoritarian regimes, totalitarian systems, and repressive governance. The imperialist powers harbor no concern for the scarcity of water, drought, or famine in Africa. Their focus is solely fixed on exploitation, plunder, pillaging the resources of the nations upon which they descend, and capturing their domestic markets.

Africa holds singular importance in this context. It commands attention simultaneously by virtue of its sheer expanse, its demographic weight, and its subterranean wealth. In the rivalry across this ancient and impoverished continent, the United States and China lead the vanguard. Russia, too, makes notable maneuvers, though on a less extensive scale. Between the United States and China, the race is particularly fierce regarding the extraction, processing, and conveyance of subterranean resources to world markets.

Africa—endowed with abundant mineral wealth, a population approaching 1.5 billion, and critical strategic importance along global trade routes—whet the appetites of capitalist, advanced, industrialized, imperialist states as a vast, populous, and expanding market. Geopolitically as well, its position cannot be ignored. Africa’s wealth in rare earth elements, precious minerals such as diamonds and gold, and strategic minerals indispensable to advanced technologies—notably copper, cobalt, and lithium—is indisputable.

AFRICA CARRIES NO WEIGHT IN GLOBAL POLITICS

Unlike other continents such as Europe, Asia, or the Americas, Africa possesses no single country that commands prominence in global politics or the world economy. Nor does Africa host an alliance, international organization, or bloc of comparable global stature. In the Americas, there stands a superpower: the United States. In Asia, there are great powers: Russia and China, with India also ascending. In Europe, major, consequential powers endure: the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Yet on the African continent, no such states exist. What exists in Africa is the rivalry of non-African great powers. Even the 55-member African Union, the institutional body of the continent’s nations, remains far from exerting any real influence—not only in global politics, but even across the African continent itself.

Over the past fifteen to twenty years, Africa has undergone substantial upheavals. Armed conflicts, civil wars, and violence have become pervasive. From Ethiopia to Somalia, Libya to Sudan, armed hostilities have claimed countless lives, destabilized governments, and provoked massive waves of displacement. Terrorist organizations have seized upon these conditions as an opportune opening, and the great powers, in turn, have instrumentalized these terror networks.

In Africa, former nineteenth- and twentieth-century colonial powers such as Britain and France indulge in reveries of bygone eras. They attempt to assert themselves, yet their efforts prove futile. Germany, as Europe’s leading economic, industrial, and technological powerhouse, takes a keen interest in Africa; yet despite this attention, its institutional knowledge and historical experience regarding the continent pale in comparison to those of the British and French. Italy strives to act, but lacks the requisite capacity. The Netherlands and Belgium, once deeply entrenched in Africa, are far removed from their imperial past. Spain and Portugal assert no claim to global primacy. All of these nations languish, to borrow Ahmet Hamdi Tanpınar’s phrase, in “a vague longing for a bygone past.”

China, well aware of Africa’s significance, is investing heavily across the continent. It stands as Africa’s largest trading partner and the primary destination for the continent’s exports. In the provision of loans, credit facilities, and grants to African states, it has outpaced Western institutions. China’s investment and foreign aid capacity, economic leverage, and extensive commercial ties naturally consolidate its political and diplomatic influence across Africa, elevating its visibility and prestige. Under the auspices of the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing continues to finance large-scale infrastructure investments as well as major communications and transport projects.

THE FEROCITY AND DIMENSIONS OF THE RIVALRY

It is, of course, impossible for Russia to mount massive economic investments, conduct extensive aid operations, or sustain the volume of trade in Africa that China commands. Consequently, it seeks to distinguish itself by guaranteeing the security of local leaders, corporate enterprises, and ruling elites, relying predominantly on private military companies (the operations of the Wagner Group being a case in point). Russia has deployed mercenaries to Mali and the Central African Republic.

The United States, for its part, endeavors to counter China’s expanding influence, economic footprint, visibility, and public diplomacy initiatives in Africa, while simultaneously laboring to reinforce its own economic and political ties with African states. One need only recall that the United States, having intervened in Libya in 2011 through NATO, has directly struck ISIS targets in Somalia. The strategic depth of Washington’s relationship with Cairo is likewise well known.

The United States, China, and Russia also stand out prominently in arms sales to African nations. As the great power rivalry on the continent grows ever sharper, the spectrum of contestation widens accordingly. Cultural rivalry is superimposed upon economic, political, and military dimensions. Because every great power seeking to expand its sphere of influence and reach is determined to block the advance of its competitors, Africa serves both as the stage for and the witness to this unsparing contest. Some experts explain this rivalry through the lens of a new strain of colonialism; others account for it by pointing to the inherent nature, complexity, and multifaceted character of competition between imperialist metropoles.

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The women who refuse to be erased: On Japan’s surrender anniversary, the fight over wartime sexual slavery continues

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BUSAN, South Korea — On the day Japan marks the 81st anniversary of its surrender in World War Two, a conference room in Busan’s city council building has become the latest front in a battle over memory.

Allan Wilson, Journalist

Last month, on 23 July, academics, activists and lawmakers gathered here for a symposium on one of the war’s most painful legacies: the estimated tens of thousands of women — euphemistically labelled “comfort women” — forced into sexual slavery by the Imperial Japanese Army. The event was co-hosted by the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia division and the Korean Women’s Forum.

“The records of the Japanese military’s comfort women are historical assets that the international community must preserve together,” Nam Myung-sook, the Busan city councillor who co-organised the symposium, told the gathering. “Social consensus must be broadened.”

Her words were aimed at more than the audience in the room.

For three decades, survivors and their advocates have pressed Japan for a full and unequivocal accounting. They have met a familiar pattern: moments of apparent progress — the 1993 Kono statement acknowledging military involvement, the 2015 bilateral agreement with South Korea — followed by retreat. Japanese officials continue to dispute the term “sexual slavery.” Textbooks soften the language. Senior politicians visit Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals are honoured alongside the dead.

The symposium came as UNESCO’s World Heritage Committee convened in Busan, and the timing was deliberate. One of the gathering’s stated goals was to revive the push to have comfort women records inscribed on UNESCO’s Memory of the World register — an effort Japan has repeatedly blocked.

“Our aim is to reaffirm the historical facts of comfort women (受害) to the international community and explore directions that contribute to peace and human rights,” said Yu Ying-mo, senior adviser to the Carter Human Rights Center’s Asia region, in remarks prepared for the event.

A statue, a warning

The symposium also addressed an incident that has become a diplomatic flashpoint: the recent removal of a comfort women memorial statue in Taiwan.

The statue, one of dozens erected across East Asia and beyond, was taken down in recent months. Organisers in Busan described the removal as “an erroneous approach that erases historical wounds and weakens collective memory,” according to the symposium’s programme.

For advocates, the Taiwan case illustrates what happens when political pressure is allowed to dictate historical memory. “Statues, memorial halls, and archives related to comfort women are important spaces of memory that testify to the victims’ suffering and history,” the Carter Human Rights Center said in its written address. “They must be respected.”

Dozens of comfort women memorials now stand in cities from Seoul to San Francisco to Berlin. Each has become a site of diplomatic friction: Japan’s government has consistently objected to them, arguing they perpetuate what it calls an inaccurate narrative.

The shrinking window

Time is running out. Of the few hundred women who came forward in the 1990s, the number of surviving registered victims in South Korea has dwindled to single digits.

This demographic reality has injected new urgency into the preservation effort. Shim Ok-ju, a research professor at George Mason University Korea, told the symposium that the focus must now shift from oral testimony — soon to be lost — to documentation and education.

Seo Kyung-soon, a professor at Pukyong National University, presented findings from the so-called “Gwanbu Trial” records — a series of postwar legal proceedings in which comfort women sought compensation through Japanese courts. The documents, she argued, contain incontrovertible evidence of state orchestration.

A designated discussant panel followed, bringing together Kim Tae-wan, a political science professor at Dong-eui University; Kim Kyung-hee, an independent researcher; and Ahn Jun-young, a journalist from the Busan Ilbo newspaper. The format was designed to bridge academia and public consciousness — to test whether scholarly findings could survive the scrutiny of working journalists and political scientists.

The international dimension

The comfort women issue has never been purely bilateral. In 1996, the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women concluded that the system constituted “military sexual slavery.” In 2022, the UN Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women urged Japan to “ensure that the issue is accurately reflected in school curricula.”

Yet the gap between international consensus and Japanese government policy remains wide. Prime ministerial statements offer “apologies and remorse” but stop short of accepting legal responsibility. Reparations have come from private funds, not the state.

For organisers of the Busan symposium, the path forward runs through multilateral institutions. UNESCO recognition, they argue, would make historical revisionism harder to sustain. But Japan has made clear it will oppose any such move, as it did when Chinese documents related to the 1937 Nanjing Massacre were inscribed in 2015.

“Facing history squarely and respecting it is a fundamental value that the international community should share,” the symposium’s organisers concluded.

This 15 August, as Japan observes its National Memorial Service for the War Dead, the women who survived — and those who did not — will be remembered in rooms like the one in Busan. Their numbers are dwindling. The question is whether their story will outlast them.

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