With polls suggesting that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito coalition could lose its majority in Sunday’s general election, speculation is mounting over what will happen next and whether a third party may need to step in to form a government.

A majority requires 233 seats in the 465-seat parliament. When the assembly was dissolved on October 9, the LDP held a total of 288 seats—256 for the LDP and 32 for Komeito. However, public outrage over an LDP-centered slush fund scandal has put the ruling bloc’s 55-seat majority at risk.

A poll by the Asahi Shimbun earlier this week suggested that the final seat count for both parties could fall below 233, raising the question of what would happen next in such a scenario.

Depending on the outcome, one option for the LDP and Komeito could be to invite the smaller Democratic Party for the People (DPP) into a coalition.

DPP leader Yuichiro Tamaki told reporters on Tuesday that his party has no intention of joining an LDP-led coalition. However, Tamaki did not rule out the possibility of the DPP cooperating with the LDP on policy areas where they align, such as the need for nuclear power.

Even if the LDP and Komeito retain power with a slim majority, there are questions about how effectively they can govern if they fail to meet two other key thresholds.

Under parliamentary rules, an absolute stable majority requires at least 261 seats, which allows the ruling coalition to chair committees and hold a majority of committee members. To have equal representation with opposition parties in committees, the ruling bloc needs at least 244 seats.

Asked about the possibility of adding a third coalition partner on BS Fuji Prime’s television program on Friday, LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama said it was possible. Moriyama emphasized the importance of parties working together when they share common policies.

Another potential partner for the ruling coalition is Nippon Ishin no Kai, which holds 43 seats in the lower house and shares some of the LDP’s policy goals, including constitutional revision.

However, speaking at the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan on Tuesday, Tomoaki Iwai, a political expert and professor emeritus at Nihon University, noted that both the DPP and Nippon Ishin face internal resistance to joining an LDP-led coalition.

“As far as the DPP is concerned, except for Tamaki and a few others, everyone in the party wants to return to the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP),” he said, referring to Japan’s largest opposition party.

CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda hinted that the CDP, which had 98 seats when the Diet was dissolved, would be open to forming a coalition with the DPP if necessary. Japan’s largest trade union, Rengo, which supports both the CDP and the DPP, has been urging them to work together.

Nippon Ishin’s participation in an LDP coalition is also complicated by Komeito’s presence. Komeito and Nippon Ishin are running against each other for the first time in the ward elections, making a post-election partnership difficult. Additionally, Nippon Ishin leader Nobuyuki Baba has faced challenges after local election losses in Osaka, the party’s main stronghold, earlier this year.

“There are voices within Nippon Ishin, particularly among younger members, who want to remove Baba,” said Iwai.

He also noted that Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura might be open to working with the CDP.

Last month, Yoshimura expressed interest in running joint candidates with the CDP against LDP members implicated in the slush fund scandal. Although he stated that the decision ultimately rested with Baba, Nippon Ishin and the CDP had little time to coordinate candidates before the Diet was dissolved on October 9.

If the total number of seats held by the LDP-Komeito coalition falls below 233, an intense struggle could unfold as all parties maneuver to secure enough seats for either an LDP-led ruling coalition or a CDP-led bloc.

However, a resolution will need to be reached quickly. A special session of parliament is scheduled for next month to formally elect the new prime minister.

Apple CEO Tim Cook traveled to Beijing on Monday amid speculation surrounding the local launch of the US tech giant’s on-device artificial intelligence (AI) system. This marks Cook’s second visit to mainland China in 2023.

During his previous visit earlier this year, Cook was accompanied by renowned Chinese photographer and filmmaker Chen Man. He also met with students from China Agricultural University and Zhejiang University at a farm in Beijing’s Shunyi district, according to his Weibo posts and local media reports.

In his most recent Weibo post on Tuesday, Cook shared that he had visited an Apple Store in downtown Beijing, where he met with customers and Apple’s local staff.

Apple did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Tuesday regarding the itinerary of Cook’s current visit. Furthermore, there has been no confirmation from any Chinese ministry indicating that Cook has met with officials this week.

This is Cook’s second trip to China this year. In March, he visited Shanghai, where he met with key suppliers and inaugurated the company’s 57th Apple Store in the Greater China region, which includes mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Macau.

Cook’s latest visit underscores Apple’s efforts to maintain a strong presence in one of its largest markets, especially as analysts suggest that consumer enthusiasm for the iPhone 16 has waned due to the delayed introduction of Apple Intelligence in the region.

Apple is expected to release the iOS 18.1 update to its mobile operating system soon. However, the company has not disclosed whether it will partner with a Chinese entity to provide AI features for the iPhone 16 in the world’s largest smartphone market.

Meanwhile, Chinese Android manufacturers are aggressively pushing new AI capabilities on their devices. Earlier this year, South Korean tech giant Samsung Electronics announced that Baidu’s AI model would be integrated into the company’s latest flagship smartphone series, the Galaxy S24.

Following Cook’s recent Weibo post, some Chinese netizens called for a swift launch of Apple Intelligence on the mainland.

During Apple’s earnings call in August, Cook stated that the company was “very constructively engaged” with regulators in China and the European Union about bringing AI features to iPhone users. “We need to understand the regulatory requirements before we commit to that and commit to a program to do that,” he said.

Meanwhile, leading Chinese Android phone makers such as Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo are promoting generative AI (GenAI) capabilities in their latest devices. GenAI can generate images, text, videos, and other media in response to user commands.

As of August 2023, Chinese regulators had approved a total of 188 GenAI services, all developed by mainland technology companies.

President Xi Jinping has issued a series of business-focused directives over the past week, as attention turns to Beijing’s efforts to stimulate China’s economy.

Xi’s latest remarks came on Sunday in the northeastern city of Tianjin, during an event marking the 40th anniversary of China’s economic development zones.

During inspection trips to Fujian and Anhui last week, Xi appeared to seek a first-hand understanding of the state of the world’s second-largest economy and the implementation of recent policies.

Xi’s emphasis on “development” comes at a time when China’s economy is facing pressure from domestic challenges and global uncertainties, with growing concerns about meeting its annual growth target.

In Fujian, Xi invoked the spirit of “daring to be first and striving to win” and quoted a famous saying in Hefei, Anhui province: “How many times in life can you seize the moment to fight?”

Vice-Premier He Lifeng conveyed Xi’s directives at a symposium in Tianjin on Sunday, held to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the first national-level economic and technological development zone.

Xi stressed that “national-level economic and technological development zones should focus on advancing China’s modernization, continuously promoting innovation and internal dynamism… participating in the high-standard Belt and Road Initiative… and helping build the ‘Invest in China’ brand.”

As symbols of China’s opening-up and reform over recent decades, these zones have become key drivers of local economic growth, starting with coastal regions such as Guangdong, Fujian, and Shanghai.

Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, noted that Xi’s speeches during the tours echoed the message from the Politburo meeting in late September, when a “package of incremental measures” was announced to stimulate the economy.

“The economy is under pressure, so the [central] government really wants to mobilize local government officials to take stronger initiatives, assume more responsibility, and be more proactive in stimulating the local economy,” Zhang told the South China Morning Post.

Speaking in Tianjin, Vice-Premier He emphasized that development zones should identify new challenges, spearhead reforms, drive regional growth, and lead China’s economic transformation and global integration.

Since the establishment of the first national-level development zone in 1984, China has created 229 economic and technological development zones, which have played a significant role in promoting high-quality manufacturing and establishing open, high-standard economic systems.

According to the Ministry of Commerce, these zones achieved an industrial output of 15.2 trillion yuan (US$2.1 trillion) in the first half of the year, up 3.7 percent year-on-year. The regions also contributed 1.3 trillion yuan in fiscal revenue, with tax revenue reaching 1.2 trillion yuan. Additionally, the zones reported an import and export value of 4.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.2 percent from the previous year. However, foreign capital utilization during the same period dropped by 27.2 percent to US$16.6 billion.

China’s leaders are grappling with multiple economic challenges, ranging from weak domestic demand to uncertainties surrounding the “around 5%” annual growth target.

To revive growth, Beijing has launched a broad policy push, but questions remain about whether these efforts will be sufficient to reverse the economic slowdown.

Recent press conferences by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have unveiled a series of measures aimed at stabilizing the economy, focusing on property and fiscal policy.

These initiatives set the stage for upcoming high-level meetings, including the much-anticipated NPC Standing Committee and Politburo gatherings, as well as the Central Economic Work Conference in mid-December.

These key meetings are expected to outline broader strategies for boosting growth and addressing the complex challenges facing the Chinese economy.