Europe
Mass evacuation plans: War and the ‘self-fulfilling prophecy’ in the Baltic region
The narrative that Russia will continue to ‘invade’ European countries after Ukraine has become a key factor shaping European politics. Despite the rise of ‘anti-West/NATO/EU’ forces across the continent and the prospect of a Donald Trump administration in the US pursuing a fluctuating peace with Russia, ‘mainstream politics’ in Europe is forging ahead with war preparations. As part of these efforts, the Baltic states have made a new move.
Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have decided to jointly coordinate their mass evacuation plans to ‘ensure the safety of the civilian population in the face of increasing threats from Russia.’ With a memorandum signed at an official ceremony in Vilnius on June 13, the interior ministers of the three countries launched a comprehensive cooperation initiative aimed at ensuring coordination during cross-border evacuations and accelerating information sharing.
Lithuanian Minister of the Interior Vladislav Kondratovic, described the plan, stating, “Clear procedures and a rapid flow of information are of vital importance. This will allow us to prevent panic before and during a crisis and to implement measures quickly.” She argued that this collaboration would play a critical role, especially in ‘large-scale evacuations.’
What’s in the evacuation plan?
The three countries will share information such as their evacuation capacities, potential evacuation corridors, and the status of border crossings. This information will be used to ensure the safe and swift transport of the public. It was also emphasized that vulnerable groups such as the disabled, the elderly, children, and others will be given special priority during evacuation processes.
The main objective of the agreement was explained in the official statement as follows:
“The main purpose of this memorandum is to strengthen regional cooperation among the Baltic states for mass evacuations, prepare joint evacuation plans, and find solutions to common challenges through rapid information sharing.”
Currently, the signed memorandum has no declared budget; no expenditure figures are mentioned in official sources. However, looking at recent years—for example, Lithuania alone allocated approximately €285 million for its mass evacuation infrastructure in 2024—can provide an idea of the budget’s potential scale.
This step by the Baltic states is not the first, nor will it be the last. Previously, serious war preparation plans have been made, ranging from distributing war preparedness brochures to the public to calculating the capacity of cemeteries in the countries.
In addition, at the end of last month, the ministers responsible for interior affairs and civil defense from Belgium, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Finland, and Sweden met in Brussels and called for strengthening Europe’s civil defense capabilities.
The call emphasized that “not only the military but also internal security must be prepared, to ensure stability and build resilience against various crises.”
Before Zapad 2025
This decision by the Baltic states comes ahead of the joint Russia-Belarus military exercise named “Zapad 2025,” scheduled to be held in Belarus in September. These exercises, jointly organized by Moscow and Minsk, are consistently viewed by the West as a ‘rehearsal for a new attack.’
Meanwhile, Belarus has announced that the scale of the exercises will be significantly reduced and relocated. Although this decision is claimed to have been made to avoid escalating tensions with NATO, it appears this move is not enough to de-escalate the situation.
The health sector is also preparing for war
Military restructuring initiatives and widespread war preparation propaganda in Europe are being followed by preparations in the healthcare system against ‘attacks from Russia.’
In Lithuania, some hospitals are taking precautions against power and water outages and building helicopter pads, while in Estonia, ambulance crews are being supplied with bulletproof vests and satellite phones.
As evacuation plans are being discussed, Politico published another noteworthy report on Eastern Europe’s war preparations.
The article, titled ‘Europe’s border countries are readying their hospitals for war’ and written by Giedre Peseckyte, reports that countries like Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland are mobilizing their healthcare infrastructures for ‘crisis scenarios.’
The statements from individuals Peseckyte interviewed in the report contain striking indicators of how politics and society in Europe are shifting into a war footing:
Ragnar Vaiknemets, Deputy Director General of the Estonian Health Board: “We have bad neighbors here: Russia and Belarus. It’s no longer a question of ‘if’ they will attack, but ‘when.’”
Katarzyna Kacperczyk, Polish Deputy Minister of Health: “For frontline countries, preparation is no longer a choice; it is a necessity.”
Bjørn Guldvog, Director of the Norwegian Directorate of Health: “Wartime needs can be three to five times higher than normal.”
Rūdolfs Vilde, a doctor at Pauls Stradiņš Clinical University Hospital in Riga: “Most doctors who are parents do not want to leave their children behind to work in a war.”
Agnese Vaļuliene, State Secretary of the Latvian Ministry of Health: “We have to prepare for the worst. But we hope it never happens.”
However, the countries that would first face a ‘potential Russian attack’ are quite inadequate in terms of military and healthcare capacity. Estonia has half the number of healthcare workers per capita compared to Germany. Whether the staff would remain in the country in the event of a war is uncertain. In a survey conducted in Lithuania, 25% of healthcare personnel stated they would flee in a war, while 33% were undecided.
While Europe has an average of 11.5 ICU [Intensive Care Unit] beds per 100,000 people, this number is insufficient for wartime conditions. Most hospitals are only equipped to operate at 150% capacity for 24-48 hours. Despite this, many hospitals in Eastern Europe are planning to convert their basements into operating theaters.
Civilian participation comes to the forefront
Alongside war preparations and evacuation plans, the Baltic states plan to conduct numerous exercises this year. The prominent features of these exercises are the emphasis on ‘civil defense’ topics such as casualty evacuation and emergency response.
The reality revealed by this entire picture is this: The Baltic states do not believe their armed forces will be sufficient in a war with Russia, and therefore, a new type of civil-military mobilization is being constructed, in which the public is also pushed directly to the front lines. In such a situation, if Russia were to actually attack these countries, how will the distinction between civilian and military casualties be calculated? The answer to this question is not yet clear.
The Baltic region, as Europe’s eastern border, has been led to believe it will be the first target of war. According to the leaders of these countries, preparing for a potential Russian attack is no longer just the duty of the military, but of the entire society—civilians, doctors, nurses, firefighters, and hospitals.
The Baltic states are acting based on an abstract threat scenario centered on a ‘Russian attack.’ The idea that Russia will attack the Baltic states after Ukraine is, for now, nothing more than a prophecy. However, the increasing NATO military presence in the region could turn this scenario into a ‘self-fulfilling prophecy.’
Sources
https://tvpworld.com/87266026/baltic-states-sign-pact-for-joint-evacuation-strategy
Europe
Morawiecki launches Rozwój Plus movement following high-profile split from Poland’s PiS
The first major event organized by the political circle of Mateusz Morawiecki, following his split from Law and Justice (PiS), is set to take place in Warsaw’s Praga district.
The gathering comes just days after the former prime minister and dozens of his allies severed ties with the national-conservative PiS.
The move also led to Morawiecki’s resignation from the presidency of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group in the European Parliament.
Organized by his Rozwój Plus (Development Plus) movement, the conference—dubbed “Morawiecki’s barbecue” due to the prominent inclusion of charcoal-grilled kiełbasa sausages—will mark a significant moment in Polish conservative politics.
The event will bring together key figures from the emerging movement alongside featured guests, including former world chess champion Garry Kasparov and General Rajmund Andrzejczak, the former chief of the General Staff of the Polish Armed Forces.
The gathering will offer Morawiecki’s camp an opportunity to present a political vision distinct from that of the current PiS leadership.
“Poles care about the fight for a strong Poland, their wallets, their jobs, housing, development, identity, culture, the Christian faith, and the defense of the cross hanging in the Sejm,” Morawiecki said this week. “These are our principles; this is our faith.”
Discussions will focus on demographics, security, and the politics of memory—topics that have grown increasingly sensitive amid recent tensions in Polish-Ukrainian relations.
While Morawiecki describes Rozwój Plus as an “expert group and think tank,” its political ambitions are becoming increasingly clear.
A new parliamentary group established on Wednesday brings together 40 deputies and one senator, providing his allies with an official platform in parliament and a base from which to challenge PiS.
“This is a threat to us,” Mateusz Kurzejewski, a PiS politician and spokesperson for Przemysław Czarnek’s prime ministerial campaign, told Euractiv. “After all, this is an initiative that reduces our chances of victory, though it does not eliminate them entirely. Therefore, we will continue to work hard.”
However, whether Morawiecki can successfully reshape the Polish right remains uncertain.
An SW Research poll commissioned by Onet revealed that 32.9% of respondents would consider voting for a party led by the former prime minister.
The strongest potential support comes from voters who already align with the right. Among respondents currently close to PiS, 14% said they would consider supporting Morawiecki, while 7.1% of those aligned with the further-right Confederation held the same view.
The initiative could also draw limited support from the ruling camp. Approximately 7.4% of voters currently supporting Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-EU Civic Coalition, The Left, Poland 2050, or the Polish People’s Party indicated they would not rule out voting for a party led by Morawiecki.
Sources within Tusk’s government believe the split in PiS could benefit the ruling coalition in the short term.
“Particularly because this situation helps soften the impact of the hospital scandal,” one source told Euractiv. “Today, no one is talking about it anymore, and fortunately, no new statements have been made.”
The controversy revolves around allegations that a Warsaw hospital operated a preferential admission system for politicians belonging to the governing Civic Coalition, allowing them to enter a VIP lounge and receive medical treatment ahead of other patients.
Questions have also been raised regarding the salary of the doctor heading the hospital’s emergency department, who is reportedly linked to Tusk’s party.
Yet the same source warned that Morawiecki’s departure may have little long-term impact on the Civic Coalition.
They argued that PiS possesses a fiercely loyal electorate, whereas enthusiasm for Rozwój Plus could prove temporary.
“Look at the IBRiS poll for Rzeczpospolita,” another source said. “70% of PiS voters say they are voting for their ideal party. This core electorate accounts for about 70% of PiS’s current voters.”
A similar perspective prevails within PiS, where politicians contend that Morawiecki is chasing a voter base that may be too small to sustain a new party.
Speaking to Euractiv, Kurzejewski said:
“People do not want to vote for politicians who have been excluded from PiS. As for Law and Justice voters, they do not want to vote for those who betrayed them. That is why this project means Rozwój Plus will fail to clear the electoral threshold.”
Today’s event will therefore serve as an early test of whether Morawiecki can translate curiosity and institutional support into lasting political clout—or whether his departure will become merely another short-lived fracture on Poland’s crowded right wing.
Europe
Ceuta migration crisis sparks diplomatic row as Italy demands Spain’s suspension from Schengen
An influx of thousands of migrants entering Spain from neighboring Morocco has plunged the autonomous enclave of Ceuta into chaos since Wednesday, prompting fresh backlash against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s immigration policies.
Local authorities warned on Wednesday that an increasing number of migrants were reaching Ceuta by sea.
Juan Jesús Vivas, the president of Ceuta, told reporters that the situation constituted “an absolute humanitarian and social emergency” and demanded that the central government take action.
The situation escalated further on Thursday as thousands of people entered Ceuta by land and sea, overwhelming reception centers.
Videos shared online showed individuals using wetsuits and life jackets to swim to shore.
In a statement posted Thursday on X, Sánchez announced that he was working with Moroccan authorities to restore order as quickly as possible and promised an immediate response.
The border chaos erupted just weeks after the Spanish Supreme Court issued a ruling preventing the direct deportation of migrants arriving by sea.
Sánchez’s political rivals laid the blame for the crisis directly on the prime minister. Santiago Abascal, leader of the right-wing Vox party, characterized the events as an “invasion,” while Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the center-right People’s Party (PP), was also among those condemning the prime minister.
The developments drew additional criticism from anti-immigration figures across Europe, including Alice Weidel, co-leader of Alternative for Germany (AfD), and Manfred Weber, chairman of the European People’s Party (EPP), the largest group in the European Parliament.
“This proves one thing: the Migration Pact and return regulations must be put into force today, not tomorrow. Furthermore, Frontex must be strengthened,” Weber wrote.
Tensions have remained high in Spain since the Sánchez administration launched a program enabling undocumented migrants to apply for legal status and remain in the country. More than one million people have applied under the scheme.
This represents the most severe border crisis to hit Ceuta since 2021, when at least 8,000 people entered the territory from Morocco.
The autonomous Spanish cities of Ceuta and Melilla are the only EU territories sharing a land border with Africa.
Italian leaders demand Spain’s expulsion from Schengen
Meanwhile, the fiercest reaction to the migration crisis in Spain emerged from Italy. Top Italian politicians demanded that Spain be expelled from the Schengen Area as tensions continued to escalate.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said in a statement on X: “The images coming from Ceuta are shocking and demonstrate once again that uncontrolled illegal migration poses a real threat to the security of Europe’s borders.”
Meloni added that Italy was prepared to act, “including through extraordinary measures,” to protect its borders and guarantee the safety of its citizens.
Together with Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani—the most senior ministers representing parties in the Italian right-wing coalition—Meloni demanded the suspension of the Schengen Agreement or the exclusion of Spain from the border-free zone.
Under the accord, individuals can travel freely between 29 signatory European countries.
However, several member states have reinstated checks at certain borders, as permitted under the agreement, citing migration risks.
Italy had previously temporarily reintroduced controls on its border with Slovenia to prevent smuggling and terrorism.
Tajani went beyond calling for Spain’s exclusion from Schengen, attributing responsibility for the events in Ceuta to the immigration policies of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who had promised to legalize hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants.
The minister characterized the policy as “profoundly wrong” and claimed it provided “an incentive for human trafficking.”
The remarks provoked a sharp reaction from Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares, who summoned the Italian ambassador to account for Tajani’s statements.
Replying to Tajani on X, the Spanish minister wrote: “This message is unbefitting the foreign minister of a partner and friendly country from whom we expect European solidarity, not partisan demagogy.”
Separately, European Commissioner for Migration Magnus Brunner, who is also an EPP member, stated that the European Commission supports Spain in protecting the integrity of its borders, including Ceuta, and is in contact with Spanish Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska regarding the matter.
A spokesperson stated that the Commission welcomed “the close cooperation established between Morocco and Spain to combat these migratory flows and to ensure the swift return of individuals who entered Ceuta illegally, in accordance with applicable rules.”
“When it comes to our cooperation with partner countries, Morocco is a key and reliable partner for the EU. In recent years, we have intensified our cooperation in the areas of migration and border management, as well as the fight against smuggling. We are currently working to turn our relations into a comprehensive and strategic partnership,” the spokesperson added.
Europe
Rome’s hesitation over SAFE defense allocation draws frustration across EU
Italy is delaying the execution of a €14.9 billion loan agreement under the European Union’s SAFE defense program, a hesitation that is preventing other member states from accessing unallocated funds.
The Italian government has failed to finalize the exact amount it intends to borrow due to an ongoing energy crisis and internal political debate, effectively holding other European nations “hostage” ahead of a year-end deadline for fund redistribution, according to a report by Euronews.
Rome had previously requested €14.9 billion in loans—an application that was swiftly approved by both the European Commission and the Council of the European Union. However, the administration has yet to issue a final decision regarding the exact amount it will draw down.
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani stated this week that his country has “reserved” the full €14.9 billion as a maximum threshold.
Tajani noted that the government will only determine the final loan volume toward the end of the year, adding that he expects the eventual figure to range between €6 billion and €9 billion.
Eastern bloc frustrates over indecision
Rome’s reluctance is causing growing irritation across Europe, Euronews reported. While 17 EU member states have completed their formal agreements with the European Commission, they remain unable to access unclaimed funds because of Italy’s position.
Eastern flank countries, including Poland and Lithuania, are facing particular constraints as they seek additional resources beyond their initial allocations.
Under SAFE framework regulations, all unspent resources must be redistributed by the end of the year. Euronews reported that if Italy continues to delay, the European Commission could formally restrict Rome’s application in September, opening the remaining pool of approximately €10 billion to applications from other member states.
The Security Action for Europe (SAFE) operates as an EU financing mechanism designed to provide low-interest loans to help member state governments bridge gaps in their military capabilities and maintain continued support for Ukraine.
Approved by EU ambassadors in May last year to support the bloc’s rearmament, the SAFE loan facility has a total capacity of €150 billion.
The program forms part of the broader €800 billion “ReArm Europe” initiative announced by the European Commission in March.
Energy crisis and domestic politics stall progress
Italy’s cautious approach stems from a combination of domestic political pressures and economic factors. The country is contending with the impact of rising energy costs linked to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading the Italian government to request fiscal flexibility from the EU to handle energy expenditures.
Concurrently, Italy’s ruling coalition—comprising Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy), Lega (League), and Forza Italia—faces intensifying pressure from its far-right wing, which has criticized increased defense spending ahead of upcoming elections. Italy must hold its next parliamentary elections no later than Dec. 22, 2027.
Euronews previously reported in May that despite reserving €14.9 billion under the SAFE program, Rome subsequently decided to request only €4 billion to €5 billion to cover existing signed contracts.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Foreign Minister Tajani justified the move by emphasizing the need to prioritize the energy crisis. Rome missed the deadline to submit its SAFE projects after requesting budget flexibility from Brussels for energy spending.
“We cannot tell our citizens that there is only money for defense,” Meloni said regarding the situation.
Italian daily La Repubblica also reported persistent disagreements between Meloni and other EU leaders concerning Ukraine. At the end of June, Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported that a draft text intended for consensus at the NATO Summit in Ankara envisioned maintaining annual support for Kyiv at €70 billion through 2027, matching the 2026 commitment level.
However, Italy withheld its approval for the draft, objecting to long-term financial commitments of that scale for Kyiv.
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