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MIDDLE EAST

US move brings Netanyahu to his knees, not Israel

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The US abstention for the first time on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza has further strained Biden-Netanyahu relations, which have been tense for some time. Netanyahu cancelled the programme of the Israeli delegation that was due to travel to the US to discuss the Rafah operation plan. The US, which does not want to stop Israel’s attack on Gaza but wants to save its own damaged image and bring Netanyahu to his knees, claimed that the UNSC resolution was not binding, which drew the reaction of the UN.

The US abstained from yesterday’s call for a ceasefire after rejecting 6 of the UNSC resolutions calling for a ceasefire since Israel’s attacks on Gaza began, making it the first time since 7 October that the UNSC has called for an emergency ceasefire in Gaza.

In the draft resolution prepared by non-permanent UNSC members Algeria, Ecuador, Guyana, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, South Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia and Switzerland, the phrase “permanent ceasefire” was agreed. At the last moment, the US delegation requested an amendment to the text of the draft resolution, replacing the word “permanent” with “durable”. This is believed to have given the US more flexibility in the ceasefire process.

The resolution, which calls for “an immediate ceasefire during Ramadan that is respected by all parties, leading to a permanent and sustainable ceasefire, and the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages,” also calls for access for humanitarian and medical assistance to the hostages.

Reaction from Israel

Following the decision, Israeli Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz said: “Israel will not stop firing. We will destroy Hamas”. Netanayhu announced that he had cancelled the delegation’s visit to Washington for the Rafah operation in light of the US abstention. The Israeli opposition blamed Netanyahu for the US abstention.

Why did the US take this step now?

US President Joe Biden, the leader of the Democrats, is facing criticism from his own base as well as on the international stage over the ongoing Israeli attacks in Gaza, which do not spare civilians. Biden is the target of criticism both for his support of Israel and for his inability to rein in Netanyahu. Biden is trying to take careful steps to mitigate the criticism, but not to confront the Israel lobby, which is known to be quite strong. For some time, Biden has been urging Netanyahu to present a credible and coherent vision for post-war Gaza and to prepare a realistic plan for a ground operation in Rafah that would not harm civilians. But the Netanyahu government, which rejected the US plans for the next day, has failed to explain its own vision, nor has it been able to present a convincing plan for Rafah. To sum up, the US does not want Israel to stop the Gaza operation altogether, but to limit it to the extent that civilian casualties are reduced, or at least to present a vision along these lines.

Netanyahu, who rejects all US demands, hopes to stall Washington until the presidential elections in November. The Biden administration has taken several steps to “teach” the Israeli prime minister a lesson for his intransigence. First, he hosted Benny Gantz, a member of the war cabinet and possible next Israeli prime minister, in Washington, despite Netanyahu’s opposition. Then Biden’s close friend, Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer, said that Israel should go to elections, which was applauded by Biden. Since these moves by the Biden administration were aimed at Netanyahu, they did not elicit a reaction from the Israel lobby.

The reason for the “non-binding” statement

The abstention on the UNSC resolution, however, may not be greeted with the same optimism. Even if it puts Netanyahu in a difficult situation, it has consequences for Israel.

Indeed, in the wake of this resolution, which provoked Israel’s reaction, the Washington administration surprisingly claimed that the UNSC resolution was not binding and reiterated its support for Israel. White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby said that they did not veto the Gaza resolution because of the combination of the demand for a ceasefire and the release of all hostages and the reference to the ongoing hostage negotiations. On the other hand, Kirby explained that they abstained from voting “yes” because Hamas was not condemned in the text of the bill, saying, “Our vote does not represent a change in our policy.Noting that they had seen the release of hostages as the most important part of the ceasefire agreement from the beginning, Kirby said, “We continue to stand behind Israel.We continue to provide them with the resources and military capabilities they need to defend themselves against Hamas. Nothing in this non-binding resolution has changed in terms of what Israel can and cannot do in terms of self-defence.

The US had put a similar resolution, which it claimed was non-binding, to a vote in the UN Security Council, but it was not adopted due to the vetoes of Russia and China.

The US claim that the resolution is non-binding is linked to the fact that the resolution uses the phrase “a ceasefire is requested” instead of “decides on the need for a ceasefire” according to Article 7 of the UN Charter.However, under Article 25 of the UN Charter, resolutions do not have to refer to Article 7 to be binding.

The US “non-binding” statement drew the reaction of the UN and other countries.UN deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said: “All UN Security Council resolutions are international law. Just as international law is binding, so are UNSC resolutions”. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also stressed that “this resolution must be implemented, its failure is inexcusable”.

MIDDLE EAST

Shin Bet Director dismissed amid ‘Qatargate’ probe

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The Israeli government has unanimously dismissed Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar. Bar stated that the real intention behind his dismissal was to “continue ceasefire negotiations without reaching an agreement.” Referencing the Qatargate scandal investigated by Shin Bet, Bar said his dismissal “smells of foreign interests and an unprecedented conflict of interest.”

In a first for Israel, the director of Shin Bet, considered an independent institution, was dismissed by a cabinet decision. Bar did not attend the meeting where the dismissal was to be voted on, despite being summoned, but sent a letter to the ministers.

In his letter, Bar refuted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim that there was a trust issue between them, which Netanyahu cited as the reason for the dismissal. Bar stated, “There has been intense and effective cooperation between Shin Bet under my leadership and the Prime Minister.”

Arguing that the Shin Bet Director should be loyal to the people, not the Prime Minister, Bar said, “Netanyahu could not support the reasons he put forward for my dismissal. Despite my request, no concrete examples were provided.”

Bar argued that Netanyahu’s insistence on the lack of trust between them was not a valid basis, but that his real intention was to continue ceasefire negotiations in Gaza without reaching an agreement.

Bar stated that Netanyahu’s decision to exclude him and Mossad Chief David Barnea from the ceasefire and prisoner exchange negotiations harmed the delegation and prevented any progress in the release of prisoners.

Bar added that Netanyahu is taking steps that will “weaken the country both internally and against its enemies.”

According to Bar, the decision is driven by “foreign interests and conflict of interest.”

Shin Bet Director Bar also referred to the “Qatargate” investigation in Israel, conducted by Shin Bet, regarding allegations that Netanyahu’s close advisors received money from Qatar through shell companies.

Bar stated, “Important investigative steps are being taken. Following the disruption of these steps by a sudden and hasty dismissal based on completely unfounded allegations, there is a smell of foreign interests and an unprecedented conflict of interest.”

He warned that the dismissal, initiated by Prime Minister Netanyahu, sends a dangerous message to those under investigation and could jeopardize the outcome of the investigation.

The government’s decision to dismiss the Shin Bet Director has been taken to the High Court.

The Movement for Quality Government requested the decision be halted in a petition to the High Court.

The decision also drew a swift reaction from the opposition. Yisrael Beytenu party leader Avigdor Liberman said, “By firing Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar, Netanyahu is doing exactly what our enemies dream of.”

The main opposition leader Yair Lapid says that the government dismissed Bar “for one reason only”: to stop the Qatargate investigation.

Lapid stated, “The opposition parties will jointly object to this reckless move to legitimize the infiltration of a hostile state into the prime minister’s office.”

The “Qatargate” discussions began with allegations that millions of dollars were taken from Qatar and transferred to Netanyahu’s election campaign.

These allegations turned into an investigation conducted by Shin Bet, with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s spokespeople Eliezer Feldstein and advisors Jonathan Urich and Srulik Einhorn in the defendant’s seat.

Israeli media reported that Netanyahu also received $15 million from Qatar in 2012 and $50 million in 2018.

It was reported that Feldstein was paid by an international company to support Qatar’s image, and Netanyahu’s advisors Urich and Einhorn also provided image consultancy for Qatar.

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MIDDLE EAST

Gaza ceasefire: The bell of war ringing again

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The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas did not last long, and eventually the bell for war had sounded again. According to media reports, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza Strip as a result of Israeli airstrikes. Israeli officials also warned that the gates of hell had opened on Gaza. The United States also announced that it had responded positively to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s request to resume the war.

The question: Why has the Gaza war resumed?

First: These days, US President Donald Trump has been feverishly pushing for talks with Iran, which is not pleasing to the Israeli side. Trump has repeatedly emphasized the need to negotiate with Iran before pursuing other options.

More importantly, he recently sent a letter addressed to the Iranian Leader and also informed the media. The content of the letter is also focused on starting negotiations with Iran, although it is spoken from a position of power. Furthermore, Adam Boehler, Trump’s representative for Israeli hostage affairs, met with the Hamas leadership in Doha, the capital of Qatar, and evaluated the meeting as constructive, while in response to Tel Aviv’s criticism, he described Hamas members as good people.

Of course, it was recently claimed that he was removed from his position. Now, in order to prevent Trump and Iran from entering the negotiating line and for the US to avoid direct talks with Hamas, the Israeli side has wanted to make the situation critical so that the atmosphere for consultations remains unfavorable. Furthermore, by intensifying the attacks, Netanyahu wants to force Hamas to accept conditions that the group has so far refused to accept.

Second: In the meantime, Trump also has specific goals that he is seeking to achieve: forcing Iran to negotiate. Trump has repeatedly emphasized establishing peace; but from the position of exercising power, using the tools of sanctions and military threats. The deadly airstrikes by the US military on Yemeni Houthi positions and the hints and insinuations of Trump and his entourage towards Iran are also intended to force Tehran to agree to negotiations, and that is, negotiations whose terms and conditions are determined by the American side.

Trump’s green light to resume the Gaza war could also be in this direction, because if the ceasefire goes ahead as included in the agreement, the American and Israeli sides believe that Iran and the so-called “axis of resistance” will declare themselves victorious, and in that case Tehran will either refuse to negotiate or will try to enter the arena from a strong position.

Third: It is true that Trump signed the plan to resume the war, but he will not support the continuation of the war and its spread, for three reasons:

1- it would contradict the slogans that Trump has constantly chanted to end wars. More importantly, since he values ​​the principle of “cost-benefit” so much, his support for a long and consequential war would harm the achievement of the larger goals he has in mind.

Therefore, it supports what Netanyahu wants to a certain extent, which is natural; but it seems unlikely that the previous US administration would want to continuously pump advanced weapons and military equipment into Israel for more than a year.

2- Second, Trump’s support for a long war that results in the deaths of Palestinian civilians could undermine the prospects for expanding the Abraham Accords, an agreement that Trump holds in high regard and cites as the most important achievement of her first administration.

Arab governments also have a sense of dignity and prestige and will not join this treaty for free, especially Saudi Arabia. Therefore, Trump does not want the scope of this treaty to remain narrow.

3- If Trump agrees to support a large-scale and high-consequence war in Gaza, America will be stuck in the Middle East, which will sideline the rest of the White House’s priorities: Ending the war in Ukraine, a trade war with China, Canada, Europe, etc. When the US is once again involved in the Gaza conflict, Russia will become bolder and, instead of giving in to Trump’s demand to sign a ceasefire agreement, will insist on continuing the war to occupy more territory in Ukraine. The trade war with China and Europe also requires that Trump be comfortable with the Middle East.

4- Netanyahu’s cabinet is grappling with numerous internal problems. For example, Internal Security Minister Ben-Governor resigned and left the government in response to accepting the first phase of the ceasefire. Smotrich, another Netanyahu ally, has also warned that he will resign in response to accepting the second phase, which would lead to the collapse of the cabinet.

Apart from that, the risk of launching a comprehensive investigation to clarify the dimensions of the October 7 attack is also prominent, which is possible in the absence of war conditions. In recent days, a serious disagreement between Netanyahu and Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar has flared up, leading to the latter’s dismissal. This dismissal is said to be related to the risk of leaking documents that could jeopardize Netanyahu’s political life.

Now, the simple and inexpensive way to keep the government going and quell internal disputes is to resume the war with Hamas, so that the opposing and supporting view of the external enemy is fixed. In the meantime, the protests of the families of the hostages and the opposition forces are important as a deterrent; but not to the extent of the internal conflict in the cabinet, the disclosure of documents and the preparation of the investigation file into the October 7 attack, which could put an end to the life of the Netanyahu government.

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MIDDLE EAST

Israeli army expands ground invasion in Gaza

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The Israeli army is expanding its ground invasion in Gaza after resuming attacks and breaking the ceasefire. The Israeli army, which initially entered the Netzarim Corridor, bisecting Gaza along a north-south axis, has announced the commencement of a ground invasion in the north. In response to Israel’s intensified attacks, Hamas targeted Tel Aviv for the first time in five months.

In a statement, the Israeli army announced the start of ground operations in the northern Gaza Strip, adding that the operations are being conducted jointly with Shin Bet, its internal intelligence agency.

Ground operations have reportedly begun off the coast of the Beit Lahia region in the northern Gaza Strip, preceded by aerial targeting of Hamas sites in the area.

The statement noted that attacks on Gaza continued throughout the night, purportedly targeting military structures and weapons.

The statement also affirmed that attacks on the Gaza Strip are ongoing.

Conversely, it is anticipated that Israel will conduct even more intensive attacks in Gaza than its previous operations, which resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians.

The Walla news site reported that the Israeli army used the ceasefire to reinforce its strength and replenish its arsenal.

The report stated that Israel has increased the capability of its armored vehicles and added new ones to its inventory. It also assessed that the new Chief of General Staff, Eyal Zamir, with the support of the US, will use more firepower and be more aggressive.

After breaking the ceasefire with Hamas and resuming airstrikes, the Israeli army announced the resumption of its ground invasion in the Netzarim Corridor, which divides Gaza along a north-south axis.

The Israeli army, which withdrew from the Netzarim Corridor on February 9 as part of a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement, has reoccupied the corridor. It has also demanded that Palestinians evacuate from certain areas, announcing that the army is conducting pinpoint strikes.

While Salahaddin Street is closed, Palestinians traveling along the north-south axis of Gaza can use Rashid Street on the coast, it was noted.

Meanwhile, the Israeli army is expanding its occupation in the buffer zone around the Gaza Strip, continuing its ground invasion in the areas off Beit Lahia and Khan Yunis.

Hamas’s military wing, the Kassam Brigades, announced that it bombed Tel Aviv with M90 rockets in response to “the Zionist massacres against civilians.”

The Israeli army also announced that three long-range rockets were fired from the southern Gaza Strip towards Tel Aviv, the capital of Israel. According to the statement, one of the rockets was intercepted by air defense systems, while the other two hit open areas. This marks the first time Hamas has targeted Tel Aviv since October 7, 2024.

Furthermore, Hamas announced that negotiations with mediators are ongoing to halt Israeli attacks and force Tel Aviv to implement the agreed-upon ceasefire agreement.

Hamas Spokesman Abdullatif al-Kanu stated in a written statement that they are committed to the ceasefire agreement and are “working with mediators to save the Palestinian people from the war and to ensure the withdrawal of the occupiers from Gaza.”

Kanu added, “The blockade, starvation, and genocide being carried out against Gaza require the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to take immediate action.”

Egyptian Foreign Minister Bedr Abdulati and Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdurrahman Al Sani also discussed the situation in Gaza in a telephone conversation.

At least 710 people have died and more than 900 have been injured in the attacks launched by the Israeli army on the Gaza Strip since the morning of March 18.

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