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US softens sanctions roll-out as Iran threatens retaliation

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Iran has announced that it will retaliate against expanded US sanctions that Washington said would sever the country’s “economic lifeline”. Tehran also expressed confidence that its primary trading partners would resist Washington’s pressure campaign.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled the new measures on Monday but refrained from deploying the harshest sanctions. Bessent said countries continuing to trade with Iran would face the risk of being excluded from the dollar-based financial system.

Bessent declined to name the targeted countries or disclose when the sanctions would take effect, stating instead that he would grant countries time to comply with the new directive.

The US Department of the Treasury announced new sanctions targeting 60 individuals, entities, and vessels, but the list omitted any Chinese financial institutions believed to facilitate Iran’s oil trade.

Prior to the announcement, Iran had threatened both a potential military response and further reductions in Gulf oil exports against any US economic measures.

Following the announcement of the sanctions, Iranian Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh said: “We are fully prepared against US sanctions.”

Speaking to state television, Madanizadeh said: “Naturally, the enemies aim to launch an economic terror attack against us, but we also have our own tools and know how the game is played. Our defence is no longer so defensive; let the enemies await our attack.”

Madanizadeh stated that neither China nor Russia “accepted” the US measures, predicting that other nations would resist them as well.

According to a report by Press TV, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi also stated that if Iran’s infrastructure were threatened, they would deal heavy blows to vital US interests and energy transit choke points.

Iran and the US signed an interim peace agreement in June, but the accord, known as the Islamabad Memorandum, soon stalled.

The Pakistani military said on Tuesday that mediator Pakistan had achieved “significant progress” in its recent talks with Tehran, focusing on measures such as preventing further escalation of the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who accompanied Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir on his visit to Tehran, stated on his X account: “The Iranian President clearly shared his government’s perspective, and we had an extremely constructive exchange of views on the agenda items.”

Few signs of a diplomatic solution

Struggling to end an unpopular war that has elevated energy prices, President Donald Trump’s administration appears to be relying on increased economic pressure, even though Iran has been subjected to multiple tiers of US and international sanctions for decades that have heavily eroded its economy without deterring the country’s leadership.

Despite both parties having refrained from large-scale strikes for weeks, there are few signs that the war will reach a diplomatic resolution. The US is seeking new ways to halt Iranian attacks on maritime shipping in the Gulf and, more recently, through its allies in the Red Sea.

Nearly six months have passed since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran. Thousands of people have lost their lives, predominantly in Iran and Lebanon.

Although the war has weakened a significant portion of Iran’s conventional military capacity, inflicted economic damage on the country, and led to the death of then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has retained sufficient missile and drone capabilities to strike US allies and bases in the Gulf and threaten oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

The current status of Iran’s nuclear programme, which the US and Israel aimed to eliminate, remains not fully known.

Despite Monday’s developments, oil prices fell by more than $2 per barrel. Nevertheless, investors remained prepared for the prospect of fresh supply disruptions emerging from the Middle East.

China’s oil trade

Asked why he refrained from imposing harsher sanctions on Iran and why he did not disclose the targeted countries, Bessent replied: “Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?”

Bessent said he wanted to give countries and companies time to sever their ties with Iran.

Bessent had previously requested cooperation from China, which has been the largest buyer of Iranian oil for several years. However, the resumption of the US blockade on Iranian ports in mid-July has already reduced the flow of Iranian oil to China.

According to experts, Washington fears Beijing could retaliate against any sanctions on Chinese banks ahead of expected talks next month between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. In particular, restrictions that China could impose on critical mineral exports are seen as a sensitive issue.

Asked about Chinese banks on Monday, Bessent said: “We want to make clear here today that no one is beyond the reach of US sanctions.”

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that sanction and pressure tactics yielded no benefit, adding that Beijing would do whatever is necessary to protect China’s interests.

Diplomacy

Allies step back from US as default partner across assets and defence

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The US is losing its status as the “default choice” for allied governments that have spent decades keeping their money in the country, purchasing weapons, and sending their students to American universities.

American news website Axios emphasises that even small steps away from this Washington-centred balance could harm the advantages that have long sustained US economic power.

Steps taken by European countries to repatriate their financial reserves rank among the concrete signs of this trend.

The Netherlands withdrew approximately 86 tonnes of gold from the US and Canada last week, describing the move as a precaution against “extreme risks”.

France relocated the entirety of its gold reserves in New York back home, while Germany announced its intention to take a similar step.

Amid market volatility, Norway’s sovereign wealth fund announced plans to reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds.

A similar picture draws attention in the defence industry. According to information reported by Reuters, Europe is seeking to reduce its dependence on the US and is purchasing more military equipment from manufacturers within the continent.

In addition, the European Union (EU) shared plans last summer to develop new strategies for cloud computing services to limit dependence on American technology companies.

A noticeable decline is also visible in the interest of foreign students and visitors in the US. Axios reported that applications by foreign students to American universities dropped by 10% during the latest application cycle.

The report linked this decrease to tightened rules on student visas and broader immigration policies implemented by the administration of US President Donald Trump. At the same time, travel to the US fell by 5.5% in 2025, marking the first decline since the COVID-19 pandemic.

According to an analysis published by Foreign Affairs magazine in June, Trump’s return to the White House prompted European countries to reassess their security architecture and accelerated rearmament on the continent.

With Trump taking office, relations between Washington and its European allies grew noticeably strained. Washington repeatedly demanded that European countries increase their defence spending.

Trump also criticised NATO allies on the grounds that they did not provide sufficient support to the US during the war with Iran, and threatened to review Washington’s role in the alliance.

In light of these developments, calls in Europe to strengthen self-defence and reduce dependence on Washington became more frequent.

In a report published in June titled “Defending Europe, Deterring Russia”, the EU Institute for Security Studies called on continental nations to assume greater responsibility within NATO.

The report stressed that military spending must be increased, arms and ammunition production accelerated, joint procurement expanded, and the domestic defence industry developed.

The authors of the study noted that Europe can no longer rely on the previous level of military support from the US.

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Anthropic uncovers Claude use by Iranian, Houthi, and Russian units

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Artificial intelligence company Anthropic has disclosed attempted “abuses” of its Claude AI model ranging from conventional weapons to biological research by state-linked entities, foreign intelligence services, and cybercrime networks, publishing the findings in a detailed threat intelligence report.

A significant portion of the report comprised the development of guided missile software by the Houthis in northern Yemen and the conversion of the model into a military reconnaissance tool by Iran-linked actors seeking to target US naval assets in the Middle East.

Covering the period between December 2025 and August 2026, the report shared details of activities detected across seven primary areas: cyberattacks, influence operations, mass surveillance, conventional weapons development, biological risks, and unauthorised model distillation.

The company announced that it had terminated all accounts violating its rules and shared the resulting data with relevant international counterparts.

According to findings by Anthropic’s Threat Intelligence unit, a weapons cell based in northern Yemen, where the Houthis operate, substituted human software engineers with the Claude Code system across three distinct missile development programmes.

These efforts comprised a tactical rocket equipped with a terminal guidance system powered by a commercial smartphone processor, a multi-stage ballistic missile with a target range exceeding 2,000 kilometres, and missile designs carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle.

The cell utilised the artificial intelligence to adapt open-source autopilot software to the smartphone processor, optimize flight control algorithms, and compile firmware.

Structuring their Claude accounts like a virtual engineering team, the Houthis assigned one account to write code, another to conduct research, and a third to review and audit the written code.

The report noted that the group conducted an actual test launch with a guided rocket in the Yemeni theatre.

Immediately following the failure of the live-fire test, the actors were documented returning to the Claude platform within hours to upload telemetry data and diagnose the cause of the malfunction.

The cell was observed successfully compiling offline simulation tools capable of operating independently even if access to Claude were severed.

Iran tracked US warships and personnel

Another military case detailed in the report involved attempts by Iran-linked cyber actors to target US naval forces in the Middle East.

These actors were found to have scraped open-source military data to draft operational targeting manuals directed against American warships and personnel.

Iran extracted name rosters of American military personnel from the captions of publicly accessible military photographs, monitored vessel and aircraft transponder data, authored code to scan commercial satellite imagery, and mapped vulnerabilities in maritime satellite communication terminals.

Other networks linked to the Tehran government were determined to have developed domestic and regional surveillance systems. A Qom-based unit produced a malicious web browser extension disguised as a prayer-time application to harvest credentials from social network users, funneling the data into a central case management system designated “Arman”.

Additionally, official Iranian institutions reportedly cloned authors’ voices using AI and operated multilingual disinformation networks to lay the groundwork for the supreme leadership succession.

Russia also used it for an autonomous kamikaze drone swarm

The report stated that an independent Russia-based software team developed fully autonomous kamikaze uncrewed aerial vehicle swarm software dubbed “DronDoc” or “Serafim”.

Affiliated with a university connected to the Russian Academy of Sciences, the team was said to have trained the artificial intelligence to distinguish between friendly and hostile elements using footage retrieved from the Ukrainian battlefield.

The developed system was designed with the capability to select targets, execute live human classification, and issue detonation commands without requiring human intervention, with simulations run directly against coordinates in the Donetsk region.

Meanwhile, the Russian-origin “Midnight Blizzard” group targeted the Ukrainian drone supply chain and staged attacks aimed at foreign officials and drone engineers by compromising hotel Wi-Fi networks.

A procurement manager stationed at a design bureau in Moscow was also discovered drafting plans via Claude to circumvent European sanctions. The individual was recorded assembling fraudulent tender and logistics correspondence to transport German-made magnetometers, space-grade photovoltaic sheets, and military aviation oxygen systems into Russia through intermediary firms based in China and Hong Kong.

Biological threats and pathogen engineering

The report disclosed five concrete cases regarding the deployment of artificial intelligence in hazardous biological research. Virologists attached to a military research institute were documented using AI for gain-of-function research aimed at enhancing the transmissibility and immune-evasion capabilities of the mosquito-borne Chikungunya virus.

Similarly, experimental designs were prepared to adapt the H5 avian influenza variant, which carries a 50% mortality rate in humans, to mammals and confer airborne transmission capabilities, while immune-evasion mechanisms of pathogens from the smallpox virus family were modelled.

The identities of paralytic neurotoxins subject to export control lists and haemorrhagic fever virus proteins featured on the World Health Organization’s priority epidemic list were deliberately masked and submitted to the AI for analysis.

In addition, a consultant working on behalf of the Malian State Intelligence Service designed a mass surveillance platform designated “Lakana 360” with the assistance of Claude.

The system was designed to monitor approximately 25 million SIM cards registered across three mobile operators in the country without requiring court orders, intercept audio recordings, and cross-reference records with biometric databases.

Separately, leading Chinese artificial intelligence firms including Alibaba, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Zhipu, and Xiaomi were alleged to have initiated hundreds of millions of unauthorised sessions to extract the logical reasoning chains of Claude models. Moonshot and DeepSeek platforms reportedly routed their own users’ queries secretly through Claude, in the process exposing Chinese police surveillance feeds from hundreds of cameras covering military facilities in Chengdu, internal credentials of Chinese state-owned enterprises, and live database access codes connected to the Russian Defence Ministry to third parties.

Türkiye detail in the report

The report also detailed cases involving the abuse of the Claude AI model, incorporating findings concerning an Istanbul-based technology firm.

In case GTG-84005 of the intelligence report, an operation aimed at commercial election manipulation targeting voters in Malaysia was intercepted.

According to the findings, the operation operated under the guise of a startup providing cyber intelligence and counter-disinformation tools. Anthropic determined that Istanbul-based BBS Bilisim Teknolojileri was behind the infrastructure.

According to documents, the company marketed the architecture as a paid influence operation service styled as a “military-grade, AI-powered, real-time political operations ecosystem”.

Managing roughly 1,000 synthetic X accounts, the system processed demographic and electoral data across 222 parliamentary constituencies in Malaysia, calibrating targeting around sensitive social fault lines including ethnicity, religion, and the monarchy.

The network also circulated content from Russian and Chinese state media masquerading as independent Malaysian news via an artificial media outlet designated “Malaysia Pulse”, while manufacturing fraudulent intelligence dossiers targeting an opposition politician and civil society organisations.

Anthropic reported that the network received a request to generate 1 million artificial impressions in support of the Malaysian Prime Minister and sought to secure a contract with the country’s national communications regulatory authority.

While no evidence emerged that the undertaking succeeded, the associated user accounts were closed and operational digital indicators were shared.

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EU pursues closer ties with Israel on space and air defence

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The EU is turning to Israel to bolster its new initiatives in high-tech air defence and space capabilities.

Shimrit Maman, head of the Israel Space Agency, travelled to Brussels this week and met on Tuesday with European Commissioner for Startups, Research and Innovation Ekaterina Zaharieva to discuss key sectors, including artificial intelligence and robotics.

The visit took place ahead of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s first major speech on space, scheduled for Thursday at a summit in Paris.

In the speech, Von der Leyen is expected to warn against mounting hostilities and emphasise the necessity of strengthening Europe’s presence in space.

“It’s very hard to do everything by yourself,” Maman told Politico, adding that the militarization of space is “already happening, it’s just we are not aware of the extent,” and noting that allies are showing growing interest in “dual-use” technologies intended for both civilian and defence purposes:

“One thing we’re working on is early-warning systems. For example, during the last wave [of missile attacks] with Iran, we saw this very clearly. How we were getting the alerts to all the civilians in Israel, and that made the casualties so low. This is part of the system. We’re working on a very holistic view, where you can alert in advance, the system alerts the citizens.”

Following several years of effective disengagement caused by political tensions surrounding the invasion of Gaza, the EU has recently begun forging closer military and technological ties with Israel through a series of agreements.

Competition from Washington and strategic rivalry with Moscow and Beijing have nevertheless underlined the requirement for allies possessing sophisticated industrial capacity.

In 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen backed calls by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to create an EU-funded air defence shield.

Three senior officials involved in the discussions said, however, that the plans stalled after officials in the Commission and several national capitals concluded that the project would require reliance on Israeli air defence technology, which was considered too sensitive one year into the Gaza conflict.

Yet Israel’s Rafael, which is expanding its European operations significantly, has now confirmed that it will open a factory to manufacture the Iron Dome air defence system at a former Volkswagen plant in Germany.

One week ago, Greece signed a 3 billion euro agreement with the Israel Ministry of Defense.

The deal provides for the establishment of a new multi-layered air defence network designed to shoot down drones, hostile jets, and rockets.

“We see everything integrating into this multi-layer defence approach,” Maman said, highlighting satellite imagery and artificial intelligence modelling as primary focal points for joint development efforts:

“I’m not only seeing defence as ballistic missiles from Iran… think about a fire, a flash flood or even a long drought… we have a proven track record, and we’re getting really good results.”

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