Diplomacy
US softens sanctions roll-out as Iran threatens retaliation
Iran has announced that it will retaliate against expanded US sanctions that Washington said would sever the country’s “economic lifeline”. Tehran also expressed confidence that its primary trading partners would resist Washington’s pressure campaign.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled the new measures on Monday but refrained from deploying the harshest sanctions. Bessent said countries continuing to trade with Iran would face the risk of being excluded from the dollar-based financial system.
Bessent declined to name the targeted countries or disclose when the sanctions would take effect, stating instead that he would grant countries time to comply with the new directive.
The US Department of the Treasury announced new sanctions targeting 60 individuals, entities, and vessels, but the list omitted any Chinese financial institutions believed to facilitate Iran’s oil trade.
Prior to the announcement, Iran had threatened both a potential military response and further reductions in Gulf oil exports against any US economic measures.
Following the announcement of the sanctions, Iranian Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh said: “We are fully prepared against US sanctions.”
Speaking to state television, Madanizadeh said: “Naturally, the enemies aim to launch an economic terror attack against us, but we also have our own tools and know how the game is played. Our defence is no longer so defensive; let the enemies await our attack.”
Madanizadeh stated that neither China nor Russia “accepted” the US measures, predicting that other nations would resist them as well.
According to a report by Press TV, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi also stated that if Iran’s infrastructure were threatened, they would deal heavy blows to vital US interests and energy transit choke points.
Iran and the US signed an interim peace agreement in June, but the accord, known as the Islamabad Memorandum, soon stalled.
The Pakistani military said on Tuesday that mediator Pakistan had achieved “significant progress” in its recent talks with Tehran, focusing on measures such as preventing further escalation of the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who accompanied Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir on his visit to Tehran, stated on his X account: “The Iranian President clearly shared his government’s perspective, and we had an extremely constructive exchange of views on the agenda items.”
Few signs of a diplomatic solution
Struggling to end an unpopular war that has elevated energy prices, President Donald Trump’s administration appears to be relying on increased economic pressure, even though Iran has been subjected to multiple tiers of US and international sanctions for decades that have heavily eroded its economy without deterring the country’s leadership.
Despite both parties having refrained from large-scale strikes for weeks, there are few signs that the war will reach a diplomatic resolution. The US is seeking new ways to halt Iranian attacks on maritime shipping in the Gulf and, more recently, through its allies in the Red Sea.
Nearly six months have passed since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran. Thousands of people have lost their lives, predominantly in Iran and Lebanon.
Although the war has weakened a significant portion of Iran’s conventional military capacity, inflicted economic damage on the country, and led to the death of then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran has retained sufficient missile and drone capabilities to strike US allies and bases in the Gulf and threaten oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
The current status of Iran’s nuclear programme, which the US and Israel aimed to eliminate, remains not fully known.
Despite Monday’s developments, oil prices fell by more than $2 per barrel. Nevertheless, investors remained prepared for the prospect of fresh supply disruptions emerging from the Middle East.
China’s oil trade
Asked why he refrained from imposing harsher sanctions on Iran and why he did not disclose the targeted countries, Bessent replied: “Why would I want to blow up the global financial system?”
Bessent said he wanted to give countries and companies time to sever their ties with Iran.
Bessent had previously requested cooperation from China, which has been the largest buyer of Iranian oil for several years. However, the resumption of the US blockade on Iranian ports in mid-July has already reduced the flow of Iranian oil to China.
According to experts, Washington fears Beijing could retaliate against any sanctions on Chinese banks ahead of expected talks next month between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. In particular, restrictions that China could impose on critical mineral exports are seen as a sensitive issue.
Asked about Chinese banks on Monday, Bessent said: “We want to make clear here today that no one is beyond the reach of US sanctions.”
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that sanction and pressure tactics yielded no benefit, adding that Beijing would do whatever is necessary to protect China’s interests.
Diplomacy
US drafts Ukraine plan with Nord Stream restart and sanctions relief
Draft proposals by the US administration to end the war in Ukraine envisage establishing a demilitarised line in the Donbass region, easing sanctions against Moscow, and offering a comprehensive investment package to Kyiv.
According to a report by the British magazine The Economist, citing Ukrainian officials, Washington is working on a broad framework comprising both economic and political points to persuade the parties to reach a settlement.
Under the draft plan reported by the publication, Russia is offered the opportunity to conclude trade agreements with the US, an easing of sanctions, and the normalisation of political relations.
Ukraine, in exchange for relinquishing its goal of NATO membership, is promised direct foreign investment and European Union accession.
The report notes that Ukrainian officials do not possess complete visibility over every detail of the final text on the table, but are closely familiar with its overarching framework.
Nord Stream pipeline and natural gas shipments on the table
The Economist reported that the package designed to persuade the leadership in Moscow also includes items such as the resumption of Russian natural gas sales to the European market and the reactivation of the Nord Stream pipeline.
The magazine also points out that decisions regarding the operation of a pipeline located on European territory do not fall directly under US jurisdiction.
Ukrainian negotiators, meanwhile, are concerned that the Washington delegation may lock in commercial agreements in line with its own economic interests before the fighting formally stops.
Speaking to the magazine, a Ukrainian official summed up the American side’s approach with the words: ‘Why wait and waste time? Time is money.’
Diplomatic contacts intensify at leadership level
Stating that it is ready for talks, the Russian government announced that an agreement had been reached in recent contacts with Washington to launch a trilateral negotiation process that would also include Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said: ‘The objective of these negotiations will be to address the issue of ensuring the security of Ukraine and Russia once peace agreements are reached.’
As part of these diplomatic efforts, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, met Russian leader Putin on 21 October at the Konstantinovsky Palace in St. Petersburg.
Speaking during the portion of the meeting open to the media, Witkoff noted that he had brought documents outlining a pathway to peace and asked Putin to examine these texts.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that the president would evaluate the American proposals.
Noting that concrete ground for a ceasefire had emerged during the St. Petersburg meeting, Witkoff expressed hope for the start of trilateral contacts between Russia, the US, and Ukraine to address technical matters.
Putin thanked Trump for his interest in peace efforts and recounted that the US president had specifically emphasized during their recent telephone calls that the war must end as soon as possible.
Framework prepared in Oslo carried to Moscow
Immediately before his visit to St. Petersburg, Witkoff had attended talks held on 20 October in Oslo, the capital of Norway.
Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner joined the meeting remotely due to illness, which was attended by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store.
According to information provided by Stubb, the parties at the Oslo meeting clarified key security and economic elements that the American envoy would present to Moscow. Air defence systems, energy infrastructure, and partial ceasefire measures were also discussed.
Commenting after the talks in St. Petersburg, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov argued that the newly presented approaches did not contain many elements useful for a resolution.
Noting that Witkoff informed Putin about the contacts in Oslo and relayed fresh nuances in the positions of European leaders and the Kyiv government, Ushakov stated that the meeting was thorough and frank, adding that the conflict is ‘moving toward an end.’
Diplomacy
South Korea pulls part of embassy staff from Ukraine amid POW dispute
The South Korean government has decided to withdraw part of its embassy staff from Ukraine.
According to the Yonhap news agency, Foreign Ministry spokesman Park Doo-sun cited the Kyiv administration’s failure to take “positive steps” in the dispute that began with the leak of information concerning the handover of North Korean prisoners of war as the justification for the move.
The spokesman also listed the ongoing threat of air strikes, which complicates the safety of diplomats, among the reasons.
Following the withdrawal of part of the personnel, essential diplomatic contacts will continue under the leadership of the charge d’affaires ad interim to Ukraine. All consular staff tasked with protecting South Korean citizens will remain in Ukraine.
Prior to this move, the Seoul administration decided on 8 October to withdraw its ambassador. The Foreign Ministry stated at the time that it was ready to continue consultations with Kyiv to resolve the emerging issues constructively.
Tensions between the two countries began with a speech delivered by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the United Nations General Assembly in September.
Zelenskyy announced that two captured soldiers from the North Korean army had been handed over to South Korea.
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, meanwhile, accused Kyiv of breaching a confidentiality agreement.
Lee said the disclosure of this information endangered the prisoners’ families and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
Seoul expects a public apology
Dmytro Lytvyn, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, denied the existence of a confidentiality agreement.
The South Korean Foreign Ministry summoned Ukrainian Charge d’Affaires Andriy Veshkin on 28 September and issued a note of protest against Lytvyn’s remarks.
President Lee Jae-myung warned in a statement on 2 October that they would take additional measures against Kyiv if Ukrainian authorities did not acknowledge the agreement and make a public apology. Lee stated that Ukraine itself had initially requested that the transfer of the prisoners be kept confidential.
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said the dispute stemmed from differing interpretations of the confidentiality regime.
Tykhyi noted that Seoul, based on its constitution which recognises the entire Korean Peninsula as its own territory, requested that the prisoners be handed over “like its own citizens”.
Describing the handover as a “gesture of goodwill”, Tykhyi stated that they were conducting closed-door negotiations to resolve differences of opinion.
Ambassador Park Ki-chang returned to Seoul on 10 October. According to a report by The Korea Times newspaper citing the ministry, recalling the ambassador served as a diplomatic protest against the leak of information regarding the prisoners.
The newspaper wrote that South Korea had last taken a similar step in 2008 by withdrawing its ambassador to Japan.
Moscow warned foreign diplomats
On 3 October, the Russian Foreign Ministry reiterated its warning to foreign nationals, including diplomatic mission staff, against remaining in Ukraine.
The ministry recalled its advice to leave Kyiv, citing ongoing strikes against military targets.
The ministry noted that those who failed to heed the warnings would bear responsibility for the potential consequences.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a statement on 24 September that they had no information regarding Kyiv handing over two North Korean prisoners of war to Seoul.
Peskov, noting that prisoner matters fall under the authority of the Defence Ministry and intelligence services, said, “Contacts through the special services are continuing.”
Diplomacy
Ex-BND head Hanning tied to former Mossad chief amid spy inquiry
August Hanning, who led Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) between 1998 and 2005, was arrested on 6 October on allegations that he obtained roughly 2,000 classified agency documents and used them during contacts with intelligence officers from a foreign state.
Accused of high treason and espionage on behalf of a foreign intelligence agency, the former spy chief is alleged to have procured the documents from former BND employee Manfred D.
Prosecutors stated that the leaked records included internal briefing notes presented to senior German officials, though the Berlin government has not yet publicly disclosed which country received the classified data.
According to an exclusive report by Jake Green for The Cradle, seized email exchanges revealed extensive ties between the arrested Hanning and former Mossad director Danny Yatom.
The correspondence shows that the two former intelligence directors built an ongoing network of contacts following their public service, combining commercial ventures, efforts to secure political influence, and intelligence links.
This dynamic has triggered debate that using personal connections and official access for private gain has left Germany’s intelligence apparatus vulnerable.
Intelligence notes for 10,000 euros and campaign proposals
According to the reviewed emails, Hanning told Yatom in a 2018 message that he could prepare an “overall assessment based on information obtained from senior German officials and intelligence agencies” concerning an unidentified candidate.
The former BND head committed to completing the report by 13 July in exchange for 10,000 euros.
Contacts between the two men subsequently expanded to cover domestic political processes in Germany. Ahead of the September 2021 federal election, Yatom asked Hanning to approach leading candidates.
Describing CIY Global as a “political campaign company”, the former Mossad chief noted that he aimed to introduce its capabilities to German politicians, and he mentioned his intention in the same exchange to transfer documents concerning a cybersecurity firm.
Cybersecurity partnership and surveillance operations across Europe
The partnership between Yatom and Hanning reached beyond political lobbying initiatives into the cybersecurity sector.
Hanning reportedly served as a consultant for World Health Energy Holdings, a cybersecurity company linked to Yatom.
Firms of this type, established or managed by former intelligence personnel, provide commercial platforms on the international market for Israeli-origin surveillance, cyber intelligence, and political influence capabilities.
The operational presence of private Israeli-based surveillance technologies across Europe has recently entered judicial records through scandals in Poland, Spain, and Greece.
Polish prosecutors announced on 12 October that data collected under the previous government via Pegasus spyware against political opponents had been transferred out of the country, adding that manufacturer NSO Group maintained access to the technical infrastructure.
In Spain, the 2022 CatalanGate investigation established that at least 65 people, including politicians, lawyers, and civil society representatives, were targeted using Pegasus or Candiru software, with Citizen Lab researchers publishing strong evidence linking the operation to Spanish authorities.
In Greece, the surveillance operation targeting journalist Thanasis Koukakis and Member of the European Parliament Nikos Androulakis was determined to have used Predator software, linked to Intellexa, a company founded by former Israeli intelligence officer Tal Dilian.
In the German espionage investigation, the traffic between Hanning and Yatom involving paid reporting, contacts with electoral candidates, and commercial partnerships does not yet provide conclusive legal evidence regarding the final destination of the roughly 2,000 classified documents.
Nevertheless, the disclosed correspondence gives German investigators a concrete line of inquiry to assess whether classified state secrets reached commercial networks tied to Israeli intelligence.
-
America2 weeks agoTrump weighs presidential memorandum to cut surging US diesel prices
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoSWP urges backing for Gulf trade routes bypassing Strait of Hormuz
-
Diplomacy2 weeks agoEU and China reach preliminary deal to curb hybrid car imports
-
Europe2 weeks agoLSE study finds post-bailout Greece turned into a cafe economy
-
Russia2 weeks agoRussia relaxes diesel export curbs after talks with Trump
-
America6 days agoHow Elon Musk fuses private empire with state power, Ben Tarnoff explains
-
Europe2 weeks agoIreland offers EU budget cuts but Germany rejects proposal as too low
-
Europe2 weeks agoRaphaël Glucksmann wins French centre-left presidential primary
