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Why did the US shoot down a Turkish drone?

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A Turkish drone was shot down yesterday as Turkey intensified its airstrikes against PYD targets in Syria. A Turkish Defense Ministry official, speaking to Reuters news agency, revealed that the downed Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV) did not belong to the Turkish Armed Forces. Following this unofficial statement, it was clarified that the drone belonged to Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT). A US official later confirmed that US F-16s had shot down the Turkish UCAV in Syrian airspace. Subsequently, an official statement was issued by the Pentagon.

“Preliminary assessments by US commanders identified an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) less than half a kilometer from US forces as a potential threat. In self-defense, US F-16 fighter jets engaged and downed the UAV,” stated Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Patrick Ryder, who described the incident as “regrettable.” Ryder clarified that one of the Turkish UCAVs involved in airstrikes in Hasakah had entered a US “restricted area of operations” and had approached US soldiers stationed in bunkers to within less than a kilometer. The UCAV was assessed as a “potential threat” and subsequently shot down at 11:40 a.m. local time.

Ryder emphasized that there was no evidence suggesting that Turkey had deliberately targeted US forces.

Key points from the US statements:

  • The downing of the UCAV was not accidental.
  • The decision to engage the UCAV was made through the chain of command.
  • The decision was taken despite the absence of any indication that Turkey had targeted US forces.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry issued a statement later in the day, explaining the incident: “During the operation, a UCAV was lost due to differing technical assessments within the de-escalation mechanism involving third parties. Measures are being implemented to enhance the effectiveness of the de-escalation mechanism with relevant parties. The incident in question has had no impact on the ongoing operation and the successful targeting of identified objectives.”

Key points from the Turkish side’s statement:

  • The US is referred to as a third party.
  • The incident is attributed to technical discrepancies.
  • Measures are being taken to prevent a recurrence of such incidents.
  • The drone incident has not affected Turkey’s ongoing operations.

Retired Lieutenant General İsmail Hakkı Pekin, former Chief of Intelligence of the General Staff, suggests that the US intentionally shot down Turkey’s UCAV: “This marks the first time a NATO member has engaged another NATO member’s UCAV. With this action, the US is responding to Turkey’s operations against the PYD. This incident is significant in demonstrating what actions the US is willing to take in response to actions it opposes.”

Asked about the potential impact of the UCAV incident on Turkey-US relations, Pekin responded, “The consequences of this incident will become apparent in the near future, including its implications and repercussions. A clearer picture will emerge based on the developments in ongoing operations, Turkey’s parliamentary approval of Sweden’s NATO accession, and the sale of F-16s to Turkey.”

Pekin highlighted that Turkey continued its operations following the UCAV’s downing and the reported casualties in the attack on a Turkish base. “The operation began with MIT’s UAVs and UCAVs. After the UCAV was shot down and casualties occurred, the Air Force was activated. F-16s played a critical role due to their effectiveness and carrying capacity compared to UCAVs.”

More Details

The intensified airstrikes following Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s statement, “All infrastructure, superstructure, and energy facilities belonging to the PKK/YPG in Iraq and Syria are the legitimate targets of our security forces, armed forces, and intelligence elements from now on,” differ from Turkey’s previous operations in Syria in several ways:

  • The focus is on targeting the terrorist organization’s sources of income, such as oil facilities and power plants, rather than individual terrorists.
  • The operations do not appear to aim at gaining control or securing specific regions through ground operations.
  • The priority is to disrupt the PYD’s connectivity in northern Syria and with Iraq.
  • Diplomatic efforts appear to be in progress before and during the operation, as indicated by the prominent role of the Minister of Foreign Affairs alongside the Minister of National Defense.

The overarching goal of the operation remains consistent: preventing the PYD from establishing an autonomous or independent entity on Turkey’s border.

Built-up Area Caution

Pekin warned of the possibility of terrorist activities spreading to residential areas following these operations: “The attack in Ankara was already a sign of this shift. With Turkish drones and UCAVs restricting movement in rural areas, the terrorist organization may have adopted a new strategy. Turkey must take precautions accordingly.”

DIPLOMACY

Argentina and the IMF: Negotiations begin for a new $44bn agreement

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Argentina is pursuing a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to replace its current $44 billion arrangement. The effort signals a significant shift in the country’s financial strategy under President Javier Milei’s administration.

IMF Chief Spokesperson Julie Kozack confirmed on Thursday that the Milei government is prioritizing the establishment of a new programme over completing the final reviews of the existing deal inherited from the previous administration. According to a Bloomberg report, Kozack stated, “The authorities have formally expressed their desire to move to a new programme, and negotiations are now underway.”

The discussions intensified following a visit earlier this month by officials from Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s office and the central bank to Washington, where they engaged with IMF representatives.

The central question in the negotiations revolves around whether the IMF will extend additional financing beyond the $44 billion already allocated to Argentina. Milei had previously suggested an additional $15 billion, although he has not reiterated this figure recently. However, Caputo indicated this week that new funding could be included as part of the prospective programme.

If the parties reach an agreement, it would mark Argentina’s 23rd programme with the IMF since 1958 and its third since 2018. Historically, the IMF’s interventions in Argentina have faced criticism, as many past agreements failed to stabilize the economy. Successive governments often violated programme objectives, raising doubts about the effectiveness of IMF support in the country.

President Milei and his chief negotiator, Caputo, have a history of strained relations with the IMF. Earlier this year, Milei publicly criticized Rodrigo Valdes, one of the IMF’s senior officials, leading to Valdes stepping back from negotiations. Similarly, Caputo clashed with the IMF during his tenure as finance minister in 2018, particularly over exchange rate policies, which eventually prompted his resignation after a short stint as central bank governor.

Despite these tensions, the IMF has commended the Milei administration for implementing measures to cut spending, reduce inflation, and narrow gaps between the country’s various exchange rates.

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DIPLOMACY

Trump threatens tariffs on the EU over energy purchases

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has issued a warning to the European Union (EU), stating that the bloc may face tariffs if it does not increase its purchases of U.S. oil and gas on a “large scale.”

“I told the European Union that they must close the enormous gap with the United States by buying our oil and gas on a large scale. Otherwise, TARIFFS!!! in every way!!!” Trump declared in a post on the Truth Social platform on Friday.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously suggested that the EU could explore the possibility of importing more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. “We still buy a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and lowers our energy prices?” von der Leyen remarked to reporters in November.

An EU official, speaking to the Financial Times (FT), noted the peculiarity of Trump’s threat, given von der Leyen’s earlier openness to the idea of increasing LNG imports from the U.S.

Currently, the United States is Europe’s largest supplier of LNG, though Russia remains the EU’s second-largest source. The possibility of replacing Russian LNG with U.S. imports aligns with the EU’s efforts to diversify its energy sources.

Trump has also floated the possibility of a general tariff of up to 20% on all non-Chinese imports, which could have significant implications for EU-U.S. trade relations.

In November, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde urged European leaders to engage with the U.S. on trade matters, including tariffs, and to consider purchasing more U.S.-manufactured goods. This call for cooperation echoes measures taken during Trump’s first term, when then-European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker pledged to buy more U.S. gas to avert the risk of a trade war.

Global oil prices have shown sensitivity to these developments. On Friday, international oil benchmark Brent crude prices dropped 0.4% to $72.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also fell 0.4%, trading at $69.14 per barrel.

The U.S., currently the world’s largest producer of crude oil and exporter of LNG, has been strengthening its energy trade partnerships. Buyers, including the EU and Vietnam, are reportedly considering increased fuel purchases from the U.S., partly to mitigate the risk of potential tariffs.

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DIPLOMACY

London pushes for continued U.S. support to Ukraine amid leadership transition

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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Donald Trump on Wednesday to ensure that Western allies “stand together” in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.

During a phone call with the U.S. president-elect, their second conversation since Trump’s electoral victory in November, Starmer emphasized the importance of unified support for Ukraine, stating that “allies must stand with Ukraine… and ensure that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position.”

A spokesperson for the British Prime Minister’s Office described the discussion as highlighting a “shared desire to strengthen the close and historic relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States.”

Starmer began the call by congratulating Trump on his recent team appointments. Trump responded by “warmly recounting” his recent meeting with Prince William, Prince of Wales, in Paris earlier this month, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

As Trump prepares to take office next month, he has expressed intentions to seek a deal to end the war in Ukraine, though he has also publicly criticized certain Western policies, including the approval of missile supplies to Ukraine for use on Russian soil.

In an interview with The Sun on Tuesday, Starmer expressed hope to revive trade talks with the incoming U.S. administration. These negotiations had stalled two years ago under President Joe Biden. The leaders also expressed mutual anticipation of meeting in person “at the first opportunity.” According to the i newspaper, Starmer may visit the U.S. in early February.

Meanwhile, The Telegraph reported that Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, conducted private meetings with senior members of Trump’s team earlier this month. McSweeney traveled to Florida to meet Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff-designate, who played a pivotal role in managing his re-election campaign. He also held discussions in Washington with Congressman Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming National Security Adviser.

A senior source in the Prime Minister’s Office described the interactions as “very warm,” adding that “President Trump has a warm approach to the UK. As the year draws to a close, the Starmer team is confident that the UK is well-placed for a strong bilateral relationship with the new president.”

Starmer’s delegation to the U.S., which began on December 2, included Jonathan Powell, former chief of staff to Tony Blair and now Starmer’s national security adviser. Together with McSweeney, Powell engaged in policy discussions on Ukraine, China, and the Middle East, identifying areas of alignment and divergence between the two leaders.

According to The Telegraph, those close to Starmer believe Trump is currently in “listening mode” on Ukraine, carefully evaluating strategies to fulfill his campaign promise of resolving the conflict “on day one” of his presidency.

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