America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan was not a one-time decision, but was formed gradually. The US left Afghanistan when it was sure that the Taliban regime would implement its terms. Months of negotiations took place in Doha for a safe exit.

Some reasons are as follows:

1- The excessive pressure of the Eastern Front against US, NATO and India

The US entered the region which is bordered with China, Iran and the borders of the former Soviet Union. This was not digestible for the regional powers. China’s fear of Uyghurs being strengthened by the US and also China’s need for Afghanistan to expand the Silk Road caused it to directly and indirectly support the opposition of the republic and the withdrawal of US from the region.

This is why before the fall of the Republic in Afghanistan, we witnessed the presence of Taliban delegations in China. In 1395, this delegation traveled to China under the title of peace.

India brought itself closer to Afghanistan by building the Salma Dam. Salma Dam is the biggest project of India for the reconstruction of Afghanistan, which is worth 300 million dollars.

The construction of Salma Dam was one of the big projects of the government of Mohammad Dawood Khan, the first president of Afghanistan, which started in 1976 with the help of India. The construction process of this dam, which was stopped due to the conflicts in Afghanistan, started again in 2005.

Salma Dam was put into operation in the presence of Ashraf Ghani, the former president of Afghanistan, and Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India. India had a special economic view on Chabahar port to export goods to Afghanistan and Central Asia through this port. Pakistan was against increasing India’s influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia, and by strengthening the Taliban, it tried to make the republic fall in order to reduce India’s influence. For that purpose, Pakistan sent all its extremist groups, including the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to Afghanistan for suicide attacks.

Pakistan’s subversive operations in Afghanistan were carried out for three purposes:

First: Due to the reduction of India’s influence through the fall of the Republic.

Second: By transferring suicide bombers and extremist groups to Afghanistan and guaranteeing its unity and security by moving extremist groups away from Pakistan to neighboring countries.

Third: Weakening the desire for independence in the Pashtunistan region of Pakistan (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) by strengthening extremist groups.

But these extremists were all focused on confronting the republic, not the Pakistani army. After the fall of the republic, TTP was automatically activated – because it did not have a playground and the best playground was their own land (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) which was located in Pakistan. For this reason, TTP has made some areas insecure and caused border conflicts and Pakistani attacks on Afghanistan.

Iran also felt very threatened by the US, so it was trying to plan to drive the US out of Afghanistan. The president of the United States at the time called Iran a part of the axis of evil.

Axis of Evil is a term coined by George W. Bush, the president of the United States on January 29, 2002, in his annual speech to the Congress, used it in referring to the three countries of the Islamic Republic of Iran, North Korea, and Iraq.

Bush is the one who started the global war against terrorism after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the main results of which were the occupation of Afghanistan in the same year and the occupation of Iraq in 2003.

When such a person occupied two countries, one in the east and the other in the west of Iran, and also considered Iran as the axis of evil, he also planned to attack Iran from a political point of view. For this reason, Iran was not happy with the presence of the US in Afghanistan.

We all remember that an American archive 170 plane fell into the hands of Iran. This spy plane, which was sent by the US to Iran, caused the Iranian security authorities to become more suspicious of the US and to work indirectly against the US in Afghanistan.

The Russians, who once had a physical presence in Afghanistan in the form of the Soviet Union, and their agents such as Taraki and Najib could not fulfill their hopes and dreams, considered America the cause of their failure.

During the height of the war between the Mujahideen and the Soviet Red Army, the Americans sent many weapons through Pakistan to Afghanistan to prevent Soviet influence and expansion.

Both because revenge against the US and Washington had penetrated to spread terrorism, the Russians determined all their will to expel the US from the region. The Taliban’s visit to Russia before the fall of the republic indicated Moscow’s determination to overthrow the republic and drive the US out of Afghanistan.

2- Internal differences and the failure of nation building

The lack of formation of nation building in Afghanistan made the US regret staying and start negotiations with the Taliban.

When a government system cannot institutionalize nation building, division and corruption will spread and it will lose the ability to deal with external and internal threats in a coherent and unified manner. The US were fully aware of this and did not see the national army as the main supporter or protector of the country.

3- Countering China’s economic power

The only country in the world that has been able to challenge the US economically is China. The Chinese dragon is getting stronger day by day and is taking over the world markets.

The US’s staying in Afghanistan would cause it to lose the necessary focus for economic competition and struggle with China. In addition, the presence of the US military in Afghanistan and in the neighborhood of China was a weak point, which could be indirectly attacked by China at any moment. Meanwhile, the US’s focus on the Yellow Sea and Taiwan Island will increase the pressure on China.

4- Failure to realize democracy in Afghanistan

The US stayed in Japan and Germany, but left Afghanistan. One of the important reasons is the issue of culture and economy. Japan did not have a religious ideology and quickly accepted democracy.

The culture of liberalism permeated all the cultural layers of the Japanese people and the people also accepted this culture. West Germany also accepted American culture and with the collapse of the Berlin Wall, East Germany also joined the liberalism system.

The fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989 was the starting point of liberalism in Eastern and Central Europe. This did not happen in Afghanistan. The people of Afghanistan have been accustomed to Islamic culture for about 1,400 years and were also caught up in internal wars for many years. Extensive damage caused democracy to not penetrate in the city and village.

As long as a culture is not indigenous and is not accepted from within the society, it is not possible to impose it with external pressure. The communists did this in Afghanistan and failed. The US also failed to influence culturally in the middle and lower layers of the Afghan society and saw no hope of realizing democracy and liberal culture and therefore, the US left Afghanistan.

Consumer prices in China rose marginally in December, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures in the world’s second-largest economy, which have driven bond yields to record lows.

Consumer prices increased by 0.1 percent last month compared to a year earlier, aligning with Reuters’ average analyst forecast. This marks the slowest growth in nine months and is lower than November’s 0.2 percent rise, as reported on Thursday.

The producer price index, a measure of ex-factory prices, declined by 2.3 percent. This was slightly better than analysts’ forecasts of a 2.4 percent drop and an improvement from November’s 2.5 percent contraction. December’s data indicates that the index has been in the deflationary zone for 28 consecutive months.

The Chinese economy has been grappling with deflation for months, exacerbated by a three-year property crisis that has dampened consumer demand and led to industrial oversupply.

Beijing is expected to achieve its 5 percent economic growth target for 2024 through a combination of price competitiveness in global markets, domestic deflation, and strengthening exports supported by government stimulus measures.

However, analysts caution that this strategy is being undermined by U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of significant tariffs, which could sharply slow China’s export growth.

Additionally, Beijing has faced challenges in boosting domestic demand, even after a September monetary policy shift aimed at stimulating the stock market and enhancing household wealth through higher stock prices.

The yield on China’s benchmark 10-year government bond has remained at record lows since the start of the year, reflecting investor expectations of slow economic growth and a deflationary outlook.

On Thursday, Chinese stocks displayed mixed performance. The benchmark CSI 300 index was unchanged, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose by 0.4 percent. Yields on 10- and 30-year government bonds remained stable.

In currency markets, the renminbi was steady at Rmb7.33 against the dollar after the People’s Bank of China set the daily trading rate at Rmb7.19. The renminbi is permitted to trade within a 2 percent range of the central bank’s daily rate.

China’s currency, the renminbi, has dropped to its lowest level in 16 months, as concerns about potential tariff increases by the incoming Trump administration cast doubts on the growth prospects of the world’s second-largest economy.

On Wednesday, the onshore renminbi weakened by 0.1% against the U.S. dollar to Rmb7.34, its weakest level since September 2023. This decline occurred despite the People’s Bank of China maintaining its peg ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration later this month.

The renminbi is allowed to trade within a 2% range of the daily rate set by the central bank, and the exchange rate is now nearing the lower boundary of this trading band.

The selling pressure on the currency reflects fears that a trade war with the U.S. could harm Chinese exports. Exports have been a critical factor in supporting China’s economic growth amid weak domestic consumer demand and a prolonged property crisis.

“The market is impatient and wants a pop in the renminbi,” said Wee Khoon Chong, senior market strategist at BNY.

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China set the daily fixing rate at Rmb7.1887 against the dollar, slightly adjusted from Tuesday’s Rmb7.1879. However, selling pressure on the exchange rate intensified following strong U.S. economic data, which boosted the dollar on Tuesday.

Ju Wang, Head of FX and Currency Strategy for Greater China at BNP Paribas, explained to Financial Times that the selling pressure on the renminbi is “essentially a reflection of the Trump trade.” Wang noted, “The market has been doing this since the U.S. election… A lot has been priced in, but the market doesn’t want to give up.”

Analysts observed that the central bank is attempting to maintain a stable exchange rate while awaiting clarity on Trump’s trade policies. They warned that a slight easing of the fixing could trigger a more significant sell-off in the Chinese currency.

Trump has vowed to impose a 60% tariff on China on his first day in office.

Adding to the concerns, Chinese stocks were sold off during the day. The CSI 300 index, China’s benchmark, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index both fell by 1.3%.