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Era of nuclear disarmament is over, says new security report

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The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in its new report titled Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, announced that the era of nuclear weapons reduction, which has been ongoing since the end of the Cold War, has effectively concluded.

According to the report, while the number of military conflicts worldwide decreased in 2024, the number of fatalities in these conflicts rose. Global military spending and international arms transfers have also reached record levels not seen since the Cold War.

The era of nuclear disarmament is over

The authors of the SIPRI report state that “the era of nuclear weapons reduction has clearly ended,” and the prospect of nuclear disarmament is at its weakest point since the end of the Cold War.

The primary trigger for this situation is cited as the mutual inspection crisis within the framework of the New START Treaty between the US and Russia, which remains in effect until 2026.

Moscow suspended its participation in the treaty in February 2023, accusing NATO of involvement in attacks on Ukraine’s strategic airfields. This development is reviving debates on nuclear status in Europe and the Middle East, prompting updates to strategies against the potential proliferation of such weapons.

The report predicts that if Donald Trump is re-elected as US president in 2025, the “paradoxical situation” of his first term will be repeated, and none of the key nuclear powers will “commit to defending the world order.”

The report notes that the US, China, and Russia have begun modernizing their arsenals, with Russia updating its doctrine and the US upgrading its warheads.

“Returning to an era of constraints will require an agreement among the three nuclear powers,” the report states. Although SIPRI views US contacts with China on this issue more positively, it notes that these discussions are “undermined by support for Taiwan and sanctions.”

Fewer conflicts, more casualties

According to SIPRI’s calculations, 51 states were involved in conflicts in 2023, a number that dropped to 49 in 2024. The number of conflicts with over 10,000 fatalities also decreased slightly, from 20 to 19.

The largest conflicts were identified as the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war, civil wars in Sudan and Myanmar, and the insurgency in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

In contrast, total fatalities from conflicts rose from 188,000 in 2023 to 239,000 in 2024. Due to the conflict in Ukraine, Europe became the region with the highest number of casualties.

Outside of Europe, it was noted that most conflicts occurred “within states or between clusters of states with porous borders,” with the war in Gaza also falling into this category.

Defense spending breaks records

SIPRI’s April report indicated that in 2024, the growth rate of state military spending (9.4%) and the total amount ($2.7 trillion) reached record levels since the end of the Cold War. In Europe, defense appropriations increased by 17%, while in Ukraine, they rose by 3.9%.

China, ranking second in spending, increased its expenditures by 7% in 2024, while Russia also raised its spending. The world leader, the US, saw its spending increase by 5.7%.

In the Middle East, the total increase for the region was 9.4%, driven by a 65% rise in spending by Israel, which has been at war since 2023, and a 12% increase by a rearming Turkey.

Arms companies see rising revenues

SIPRI presented data on the largest defense industry companies for 2023. The revenue of the world’s top 100 defense companies grew by 2.8% from 2022 to 2023, reaching $632 billion.

Of the top 100 companies, 75 increased their revenue, and 39 doubled it. The list of the top 100 companies by revenue includes 41 US firms, with China in second place with nine companies.

Half of the top 10 highest-earning companies are from the US. The total revenue of American arms manufacturers reached $315 billion, accounting for half of the global total.

International arms trade at a peak

According to the SIPRI report, the 2020–2024 period was the second most intense five-year span for international arms transfers, surpassed only by the 1980–1984 period when the Cold War last escalated.

The report states that the largest exporters are traditionally the US, France, Russia, China, and Germany, which together account for 71% of global exports.

The largest buyers were Ukraine, India, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, accounting for 35% of imports. Over the past 10 years, China has shifted from being an importer to an exporter, reducing its foreign purchases by two-thirds.

Diplomacy

Trump administration resumes weapon shipments to Ukraine after pause

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The administration of US President Donald Trump has resumed shipments of certain types of weapons to Ukraine after a one-week pause.

According to reports from Reuters and the Associated Press (AP), citing sources familiar with the matter, Kyiv has once again begun receiving 155mm artillery shells and high-precision Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) missiles.

The exact timing of the shipment resumption and the quantity of ammunition sent are unknown.

Previously, the US had frozen the transfer of 8,400 155mm artillery shells, 142 Hellfire missiles, 252 missiles for HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, and 30 interceptor missiles for Patriot air defense systems.

Pentagon’s decision caught Trump by surprise

The Pentagon suspended military aid to Ukraine in early July. According to sources speaking to CNN, Trump had instructed Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth to conduct an audit of weapon stockpiles, and Hegseth, without informing the White House, halted all arms shipments to Ukraine during the audit.

Hegseth’s decision caught Trump by surprise. The White House announced that it had not issued an order to stop military aid to Kyiv.

Following a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump promised to provide more weapons to Kyiv and instructed the Pentagon to consider sending an additional Patriot air defense system.

The US President stated, “They are being hit very hard, very hard. So we will look into this matter.”

As noted by The Wall Street Journal, if the US sends a new air defense system to Kyiv, it would be the first time Trump has approved a new shipment of heavy weaponry to Ukraine. Until now, Washington had only continued shipments approved during the tenure of former President Joe Biden.

US quadruples Patriot procurement

Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, the US military plans to allocate more than $1.3 billion for the procurement of missiles for Patriot air defense systems in the new fiscal year starting October 1.

The report stated that the Pentagon has “quietly” quadrupled the total planned procurement volume of these air defense missiles.

According to the report, a group of senior military officials responsible for determining defense needs revised the procurement parameters in April, increasing the planned number of interceptor missiles from 3,376 to 13,773.

Bloomberg emphasized that this sharp increase in procurement volume highlights the US military’s growing reliance on PAC-3 MSE missiles in particular.

This situation also aligns with the efforts of the US and its allies to strengthen their air and missile defense systems.

For example, Ukraine relies heavily on Patriot batteries and the missiles supplied for these systems to repel intense Russian attacks on its cities.

According to budget records, the US had purchased 2,047 of these missiles by the start of the 2024 fiscal year. An additional 230 were acquired in 2024, and 214 in 2025.

For the year 2026, $945.9 million has been requested for the procurement of 224 new interceptor missiles. Of this amount, $549.6 million will come from the base budget, and $396.3 million will be covered under the “Atlantic Resolve” program, which aims to strengthen NATO’s defense in Europe.

Kremlin: Military aid will not end the war

The Kremlin has stated that the continuation of military aid to Ukraine will not contribute to ending the war.

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, “It will take time to definitively clarify which specific shipments, and in what quantities, will continue to arrive in Ukraine from the US.”

However, according to sources close to the Kremlin speaking to The New York Times, Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that Ukraine’s defense could collapse in the coming months and refuses to halt the conflict without significant concessions from Kyiv.

The news site Axios reported that during his phone call with Zelenskyy, Trump promised to urgently send ten interceptor missiles for Patriot systems to Kyiv.

Before this call, Trump had met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Merz had called for the resumption of missile shipments and expressed readiness to purchase additional Patriot batteries from the US to transfer to Ukraine.

According to sources, although no concrete agreement was reached, the matter continues to be discussed.

In a statement to the press at the White House, Trump also confirmed his intention to increase arms shipments to Kyiv, stating, “They must be able to defend themselves. They are taking very heavy blows right now.”

The Pentagon also confirmed that, on Trump’s instructions, additional “defensive weapons” will be sent so that Ukraine can maintain its positions until a lasting peace is achieved.

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US buyers bypass China’s critical mineral ban via Thailand and Mexico

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According to customs and shipping records, an extraordinary flow of antimony—a metal used in batteries, chips, and flame retardants—began entering the US from Thailand and Mexico after China banned shipments to the US last year. Records obtained by Reuters indicate that at least one Chinese company is involved in this trade, revealing how US buyers of critical minerals are circumventing China’s export ban.

China dominates the supply of antimony, as well as gallium and germanium, which are crucial for telecommunications, semiconductors, and military technology. On December 3, Beijing banned the export of these minerals to the US following pressure from Washington on China’s chip sector.

Trade data suggests that US shipments are being rerouted through third countries, a situation that Chinese officials have acknowledged. This assessment was confirmed by executives from two US companies, who told Reuters they have sourced restricted minerals from China in recent months.

According to US customs data, the US imported 3,834 metric tons of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico between December and April. This volume is nearly greater than the total from the previous three years combined. Meanwhile, Chinese customs data shows that Thailand and Mexico have become top-three destinations for China’s antimony exports this year. Neither country ranked in the top 10 in 2023, the last full year before Beijing imposed the restrictions.

According to the consulting firm RFC Ambrian, there is only one antimony smelter across both Thailand and Mexico, with the Mexican facility having reopened in April. Neither country mines significant quantities of the metal. Despite higher prices, US imports of antimony, gallium, and germanium this year are on pace to meet or exceed pre-ban levels.

Ram Ben Tzion, co-founder and CEO of the digital shipment inspection platform Publican, stated that while there is clear evidence of transshipment, the trade data does not allow for the identification of the specific companies involved. “This is a pattern we’ve seen, and it’s consistent,” he told Reuters, adding that Chinese companies are “extremely creative in circumventing regulations.”

In May, China’s Ministry of Commerce stated that some unspecified foreign entities were “collaborating with domestic smugglers” to bypass export restrictions, declaring that halting such activities was essential for national security. The ministry did not respond to Reuters‘ questions regarding the shift in trade flows since December. The US Department of Commerce, Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce, and Mexico’s Ministry of Economy also did not respond to similar inquiries.

US law does not prohibit American buyers from purchasing antimony, gallium, or germanium of Chinese origin. Chinese firms are permitted to ship these minerals to countries other than the US if they possess the necessary licenses.

Levi Parker, CEO and founder of the US-based company Gallant Metals, told Reuters that he sources approximately 200 kg of gallium from China each month. He declined to identify the parties involved, citing potential repercussions. The process begins with purchasing agents in China who procure the materials from manufacturers. A shipping company then relabels the packages as iron, zinc, or art supplies and routes them through another Asian country.

Parker noted that these workarounds are neither perfect nor cheap. He explained that he would like to import 500 kg regularly, but larger shipments risk scrutiny, prompting Chinese logistics firms to be “very careful” due to the associated risks.

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BlackRock halts work on Ukraine reconstruction fund amid Trump uncertainty

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US-based BlackRock, the world’s largest investment company, has reportedly halted its efforts to find investors for a planned reconstruction fund for Ukraine.

According to a report by Bloomberg that cited sources familiar with the matter, the decision is driven by uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine.

The fund was scheduled to be unveiled at a conference on Ukraine’s reconstruction on July 10-11, an event attended by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Sources indicated that the initiative was close to securing initial support from entities linked to the governments of Germany, Italy, and Poland.

However, with the possibility of Trump returning to the White House in January, BlackRock has decided to temporarily suspend its discussions with institutional investors, citing uncertainty about future support for Ukraine.

Alternative plan from France

Bloomberg has also learned that France is now developing an alternative plan, which includes creating a new fund to replace the initiative that BlackRock has suspended. The effectiveness of this new plan without US participation, however, remains a significant question.

A BlackRock representative stated that the company completed its pro bono advisory work for the Ukraine project in 2024 and currently has “no active commitments” to the Ukrainian government.

“The only discussions that influence BlackRock’s decisions are those the firm has with its clients,” the representative emphasized.

The fund’s $15 billion target

BlackRock Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand, who was previously involved in the negotiations, had announced plans to attract at least $500 million from governments, international development banks, and other public donors, along with approximately $2 billion from private investors.

According to Hildebrand, uniting investors under a single consortium would have enabled the direction of at least $15 billion in equity and debt investments toward Ukraine’s reconstruction.

The World Bank estimates that the total cost for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction exceeds €500 billion. Rebuilding the country’s port infrastructure alone is projected to require at least €1 billion.

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