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Era of nuclear disarmament is over, says new security report

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The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in its new report titled Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, announced that the era of nuclear weapons reduction, which has been ongoing since the end of the Cold War, has effectively concluded.

According to the report, while the number of military conflicts worldwide decreased in 2024, the number of fatalities in these conflicts rose. Global military spending and international arms transfers have also reached record levels not seen since the Cold War.

The era of nuclear disarmament is over

The authors of the SIPRI report state that “the era of nuclear weapons reduction has clearly ended,” and the prospect of nuclear disarmament is at its weakest point since the end of the Cold War.

The primary trigger for this situation is cited as the mutual inspection crisis within the framework of the New START Treaty between the US and Russia, which remains in effect until 2026.

Moscow suspended its participation in the treaty in February 2023, accusing NATO of involvement in attacks on Ukraine’s strategic airfields. This development is reviving debates on nuclear status in Europe and the Middle East, prompting updates to strategies against the potential proliferation of such weapons.

The report predicts that if Donald Trump is re-elected as US president in 2025, the “paradoxical situation” of his first term will be repeated, and none of the key nuclear powers will “commit to defending the world order.”

The report notes that the US, China, and Russia have begun modernizing their arsenals, with Russia updating its doctrine and the US upgrading its warheads.

“Returning to an era of constraints will require an agreement among the three nuclear powers,” the report states. Although SIPRI views US contacts with China on this issue more positively, it notes that these discussions are “undermined by support for Taiwan and sanctions.”

Fewer conflicts, more casualties

According to SIPRI’s calculations, 51 states were involved in conflicts in 2023, a number that dropped to 49 in 2024. The number of conflicts with over 10,000 fatalities also decreased slightly, from 20 to 19.

The largest conflicts were identified as the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war, civil wars in Sudan and Myanmar, and the insurgency in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

In contrast, total fatalities from conflicts rose from 188,000 in 2023 to 239,000 in 2024. Due to the conflict in Ukraine, Europe became the region with the highest number of casualties.

Outside of Europe, it was noted that most conflicts occurred “within states or between clusters of states with porous borders,” with the war in Gaza also falling into this category.

Defense spending breaks records

SIPRI’s April report indicated that in 2024, the growth rate of state military spending (9.4%) and the total amount ($2.7 trillion) reached record levels since the end of the Cold War. In Europe, defense appropriations increased by 17%, while in Ukraine, they rose by 3.9%.

China, ranking second in spending, increased its expenditures by 7% in 2024, while Russia also raised its spending. The world leader, the US, saw its spending increase by 5.7%.

In the Middle East, the total increase for the region was 9.4%, driven by a 65% rise in spending by Israel, which has been at war since 2023, and a 12% increase by a rearming Turkey.

Arms companies see rising revenues

SIPRI presented data on the largest defense industry companies for 2023. The revenue of the world’s top 100 defense companies grew by 2.8% from 2022 to 2023, reaching $632 billion.

Of the top 100 companies, 75 increased their revenue, and 39 doubled it. The list of the top 100 companies by revenue includes 41 US firms, with China in second place with nine companies.

Half of the top 10 highest-earning companies are from the US. The total revenue of American arms manufacturers reached $315 billion, accounting for half of the global total.

International arms trade at a peak

According to the SIPRI report, the 2020–2024 period was the second most intense five-year span for international arms transfers, surpassed only by the 1980–1984 period when the Cold War last escalated.

The report states that the largest exporters are traditionally the US, France, Russia, China, and Germany, which together account for 71% of global exports.

The largest buyers were Ukraine, India, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, accounting for 35% of imports. Over the past 10 years, China has shifted from being an importer to an exporter, reducing its foreign purchases by two-thirds.

Diplomacy

Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour

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Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.

As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.

The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.

Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.

In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.

Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”

US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”

On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.

According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.

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Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions

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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.

According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.

Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.

The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.

Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.

He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.

Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.

Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.

The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.

On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.

In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.

In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.

The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.

Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.

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Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.

In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.

“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”

Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.

He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.

Washington pledges to maintain defence support

Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.

“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.

Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.

“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.

Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks

In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.

He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.

Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”

Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.

The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.

In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.

The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.

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