East Mediterranean

The ‘Typhoon’ that broke off in the Aegean Sea

Published

14.12.2022 18:08

Erdogan’s statements caused a storm in Greece. The reason for the unrest is that the dispute, which previously focused on the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, extends directly to mainland Greece and the ability to “hit” outside the NATO umbrella, that is, the existence of ‘Tayfun’ (Typhoon).

The ongoing strategic problems between Türkiye and Greece are growing away from context by verbal quarrels. While these quarrels occasionally cause tension to escalate, the actual situation, which is the main reason for the debate, continues to function in the area. President Tayyip Erdogan’s warning to Athens over Tayfun missiles was handled through its bitterness rather than the actual situation that caused that warning, and it resonated in the Atlantic capitals only through its dosage.

Erdogan’s ‘Tayfun’ statement

While President Erdogan was explaining Türkiye’s advances in the defense industry at a youth meeting in Samsun, he brought the issue to Tayfun, Türkiye’s first ‘short-range ballistic missile’ that the public was aware of when it was test-fired in October: “…Now we have started to make our own missiles. Of course, this production frightens the Greek. When you say ‘Tayfun’ (Typhoon), the Greek is scared. They (Greece) say it will hit Athens. Of course, it will hit. If you try to buy something (to arm) from here and there, from America to the islands, a country like Türkiye will not be a bystander. It has to do something.”

Why did it cause unrest?

Erdogan’s statements were widely debated in Greece. The dominant view in the press is that the rhetoric in the statement was the most aggressive so far. The issue was addressed by the determinations of whether Greece was within the range of Tayfun. The reason for this tension is that the dispute, which previously focused on the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, extends directly to mainland Greece. In other words, President Erdogan, by referring to the land intervention earlier, said “We can come suddenly one night” for the islands whose sovereignty, which are miles away from the mainland of Greece, is controversial or should be disarmed according to international agreements. This time, Erdogan’s statement directly targeted Greece. Almost all the country’s newspapers used the same headline: “If they don’t stand still, we’ll shoot.” One of the reasons why President Erdogan’s statement created indignation different from his previous statements is the opportunity and ability to “shoot” outside the NATO umbrella, that is, the existence of Tayfun.

‘North Korea’ analogy

The response to President Erdogan’s remarks was given with “North Korea” analogy. Greece’s Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias said Erdogan’s remarks were “unacceptable”, with reference to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (KDHC), which is not internationally recognized and frequently finds itself on the agenda by missile attempts, he said, “There is and should be no place for North Korean attitudes in the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO).”

The U.S. deems the remarks provocative

Erdogan’s statements also received comment from the United States, which is at the center of the Ankara-Athens tensions with its military buildup in Greece. At a daily press conference, U.S. State Department Spokesperson Ned Price answered a question about President Erdogan’s remarks: “Well, look, we regret this escalation of provocative statements. It is especially regrettable at a time when unity and cooperation is needed most among our own NATO Allies. We urge all our allies to avoid threats and provocative rhetoric. All that an escalation of rhetoric will do is to raise tensions and to distract us from the unity of purpose, the unity of purpose that we need to confront any number of challenges, not the least of which, of course, is the threat that the Alliance potentially faces from Russia.”

The truth that is overshadowed by the quarrels

The bitter causes of the tension between Greece and Türkiye seem to be losing their importance in all the “grumbling”. The disputes between the two countries fall into below categories:

Islands, islets, and rocks in Aegean sovereignty disputes
Military buildup on the Aegean islands, which were given to Greece provided that these islands are demilitarized
Airspace dispute largely arising from the sovereignty debate on the islands
Continental shelf and exclusive economic zone dispute arise from the island in Eastern Mediterranean
A new crisis recently added to the above historical problems between the two countries: making Greece and the controversial islands a U.S. base.

In all these categories, it is possible to say that great progress has been made in favor of Athens outside the airspace: its sovereignty has opened some controversial islands to settlement, despite the high cost they have brought, and if not, it has erected their flag. According to international agreements, Greece has stacked weapons on the islands that need to be disarmed, and it continue to stack them. It managed to sign mutual EEZ treaties with many countries on the coast of the Eastern Mediterranean… Among these quarrels, we can say that “Greek ship has sailed.”

A contradiction…

On the other hand, the fact that the United States came into play as an “old ally” is another topic. “There are nine US bases right now. Against whom were they established? The answer they give is ‘against Russia.’ We don’t buy it, take no offense,” Erdogan had said about the U.S. bases in Greece. Erdogan has several statements implying that Athens is being used as a pawn and that the main “enemy” against Türkiye is the United States. So, is the AK Party government following policies in accordance with the definition of “main enemy”, it is controversial.

Of course, this does not mean that Türkiye has not done anything. The agreement signed with Libya in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Egyptian route, which was noticed and tried to be corrected, even though it was late, and the diplomatic initiatives before the United Nations are some of the important steps taken by Türkiye.

Greece’s success lies in its handling of the problem as an “East-West problem” since the beginning, rather than its diplomatic genius. Türkiye’s real confrontation with the problem, which has been kept waiting at the door of the Western camp for many years, is considered new in this sense. What Athens has succeeded in is demanding that the U.S. and the EU react to Türkiye in all matters, arguing that it is a “victim of Turkish aggression”. The success of Turkish officials in this regard should not be underestimated.

Tayfun effect

So, how can Türkiye eliminate both the steps taken by Greece in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean with the assurance of the Atlantic and the threats directed at itself through Greece?

It is true that the greatest guarantee of peace is deterrence. The first element of deterrence is undoubtedly military power. In this respect, Tayfun, Türkiye’s first short-range ballistic missile launched from Rize in its first attempt and reaching Sinop offshore in 456 seconds over the Black Sea, is a critical defense industry move beyond popular discussions.

The missile doubles the range of the most advanced missile Türkiye has ever produced. More importantly, it exceeds the 300 km range limit of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) to which Türkiye participated in 1997. The regime’s overt goal is to prevent a handful of US-led countries with the ability and capability to produce their own ballistic missiles from accessing this highly deterrent technology. Although the details of Tayfun’s production have not been shared with the public, according to the most probable result of this restriction, Türkiye can produce these deterrent missiles, which it cannot buy due to the agreement it is a party to, with its own means and capability.

It is not clear when Tayfun will enter the inventory, but after the release of the trial footage in mid-October, some media outlets, fed by the call to war, reported the footage by stating that “its range reaches Greece.” Greek press, which “outperform” Turkish media on the issue of publicity, kept the development on the agenda with the same topics for days.

Tayfun missile is a critical threshold for the Turkish defense industry, although its importance cannot be fully perceived due to its focus on Greece. There are very few countries in the world that can produce short-range missiles with their own means. Rather than using this technology, which is described as “deterrent”, it is important that it is included in the inventory of a country. Greece seems to be more aware of this issue than Türkiye.

Diplomatic attack

The second element of deterrence, which is as important as the first, is building regional-territorial alliances based on common interests. Taking more determined diplomatic steps for Egypt and Syria in the Eastern Mediterranean has become an indispensable necessity. Türkiye should find a way to break the surrounding circle for itself with fair economic agreements and social and cultural projects that pursue common interests with the countries of the region.

Today, unless there is a direct attack from the disputed islands, it is a remote possibility for Türkiye to bring up the military option. However, every position to be gained in the Eastern Mediterranean will weaken the hand of Greece in the Aegean. The maritime boundary delimitation agreement with Libya must also be quickly put on the agenda with Egypt. On the other hand, natural gas exploration efforts, which have been suspended for two years due to talks with Greece, should be brought up again, perhaps the first route could be Libya’s territorial waters. Of course, not to drag the TRNC, which is the biggest trump card in the Eastern Mediterranean, to the unsolvable processes of the United Nations again and to accelerate the concrete steps towards the recognition of the TRNC as an independent state will strengthen Türkiye’s hand and deterrence.

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East Mediterranean

Cyprus to become first EU country to import Israeli gas

Published

7 months ago

04/11/2025

Harici.com.tr

Israeli energy company Energean announced on November 3 that it had signed an agreement to supply natural gas to the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus (GCASC).

With this agreement, the GCASC will become the first European Union country to import gas from Tel Aviv.

Energean, which operates Israel’s Karish, Tanin, and Katlan fields, has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Cyprus-based company Cyfield to supply gas to a power generation plant in the Mari region of Larnaca.

New pipeline proposal from Israel to Cyprus

As part of the agreement, Energean has also proposed the construction of a new pipeline to export natural gas from Israel to the GCASC.

According to the proposal submitted to the Israeli and GCASC governments, Energean will design, build, and operate the subsea pipeline that will directly connect the Karish field to the GCASC.

Eli Cohen, Israel’s Minister of Energy and Infrastructure, commented on the matter, stating, “The sale of gas to Cyprus will strengthen Israel’s diplomatic position in the region and in Europe, contribute to stability and prosperity, and generate billions of shekels in revenue for the state.”

Energean CEO Mathios Rigas stated that the proposal “will reduce Cyprus’s energy isolation with direct access to natural gas from a neighboring source, supporting regional cooperation and the transition to cleaner, sustainable energy.”

Cyfield CEO George Chrysocous also said the collaboration “has the potential to change the energy future of Cyprus.”

Agreement with Egypt awaits approval

In August, the Israeli company NewMed Energy signed a $35 billion deal with Egypt to supply 130 billion cubic meters of gas from the Leviathan field by 2040.

The Leviathan field in the Mediterranean Sea has reserves of approximately 600 billion cubic meters.

Following an initial agreement for 60 billion cubic meters in 2019, the field began production in 2020 and started supplying gas to Egypt.

However, Minister Cohen and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have not yet approved this $35 billion agreement, stating that they prefer the gas to be sold on the domestic market due to current prices.

US Assistant Secretary of Energy Chris Wright canceled his visit to Israel scheduled for next week after Cohen withheld his approval.

The White House and US-based Chevron, the operator of the Leviathan field, are pressuring Israel to approve the deal.

Israel’s domestic demand concerns

Egypt imports approximately 15% to 20% of its natural gas from Israel.

A portion of this gas is liquefied at facilities in Egypt and shipped to Europe via tankers.

However, a recent increase in Egypt’s domestic consumption has negatively affected exports, leading to a sharp decline in 2025.

Meanwhile, Israel is reluctant to increase exports to Egypt due to its own growing domestic demand.

Israel’s Ministry of Finance issued a warning at the beginning of the year, stating that the country could face a natural gas deficit risk over the next 25 years due to growing domestic energy needs, which could raise electricity prices for households.

East Mediterranean

Israel’s Barak MX radar in Cyprus puts Türkiye in its sights

Published

9 months ago

17/09/2025

Harici.com.tr

Israel delivered advanced air defense systems known as Barak MX to the Greek Cypriot administration last week. Sources familiar with the matter told Ragip Soylu of Middle East Eye that this was the third shipment to Southern Cyprus since December, amid escalating tensions with Türkiye.

In a video released on Thursday, a truck carrying parts of the Barak MX system was seen passing through the Port of Limassol. This air defense system, capable of neutralizing threats up to a range of 150 kilometers, is manufactured by Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI). The Reporter website reported that the delivery of the Barak MX has been completed and it is expected to become operational within this year.

The delivery follows an article written in July by Shay Gal, a former vice president of IAI. Gal argued that Israel should reconsider its approach to Cyprus and called for making military plans in coordination with Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration to “liberate” the northern part of the island from “Turkish forces”:

“Such an operation would neutralize Türkiye’s reinforcement forces from the mainland, eliminate air defense systems in Northern Cyprus, destroy intelligence and command centers, and ultimately restore the internationally recognized sovereignty of Cyprus by eliminating Turkish forces.”

Türkiye intervened in Cyprus in 1974 following a coup aimed at annexing the island to Greece.

There has been no official statement from Ankara regarding the newly deployed systems. However, with its 3D radars providing advanced surveillance and intelligence capabilities, the Barak MX creates an “air defense shield” with a range of up to 460 kilometers, covering a significant portion of Türkiye’s southern airspace.

In 1997, the Greek Cypriot administration’s attempt to purchase Russian-made S-300 air defense missiles led to a harsh reaction from Ankara, bringing the two sides to the brink of war. The crisis ended with the deployment of the S-300s in Greece.

Turkish defense analyst Arda Mevlütoğlu said of the Barak MX, “This system is much more dangerous than the S-300s ordered in 1997 but never used.” Mevlütoğlu emphasized that given the state of military relations between Israel and Southern Cyprus, this powerful air defense system and its radar will become a central element of Israel’s intelligence network in the Eastern Mediterranean.

According to Mevlütoğlu, thanks to its radar capabilities, the Barak MX can detect not only aerial targets but also howitzer, mortar, and rocket fire up to 100 kilometers away. This means the system poses a serious threat to both Turkish air and land assets in Cyprus and throughout the Eastern Mediterranean.

CHP Deputy Chairman and retired Rear Admiral Yankı Bağcıoğlu described the deployment of the system as a “violation of international law.” Bağcıoğlu stated, “This step will disrupt the fragile balance in the Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus and will directly threaten Türkiye’s national security.”

Southern Cyprus’s Minister of Defense, Vasilis Palmas, stated on Tuesday that Türkiye continues to occupy the island, asserting that his government has an obligation to develop deterrent capabilities. When asked if the Barak MX was part of a defense agreement with Israel, Palmas responded, “Our decisions regarding armament are entirely within the scope of our sovereignty.”

Palmas added, “Any conflict between Israel and Türkiye does not concern us. Our primary duty is to protect ourselves.”

Turkish security sources, however, indicated that the systems are still in the testing phase at the Paphos Air Base and have not yet been put into active service. The sources added that subsequent Israeli shipments are being closely monitored.

East Mediterranean

UK trade envoy’s visit to Northern Cyprus sparks diplomatic backlash

Published

10 months ago

11/08/2025

Harici.com.tr

The visit of the United Kingdom’s Trade Envoy to Turkey and Member of the House of Commons, Afzal Khan, to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) via Ercan Airport has stirred political controversy on both islands.

According to a local newspaper, Afzal Khan traveled to Northern Cyprus last week for “a series of official meetings” and met with TRNC leader Ersin Tatar.

As part of his visit, Khan is also set to receive an honorary doctorate from a university today.

The United Kingdom does not recognize the “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus” as an independent state.

Khan’s visit was protested by the National Federation of Cypriots in the UK, which represents over 300,000 British citizens of Cypriot origin.

The federation sent a letter to the UK government questioning the envoy’s visit to the “Turkish-occupied” areas of Cyprus and accused Khan, the Member of Parliament for Manchester Gorton, of “violating numerous international agreements.”

Describing the visit as a “clear violation” of international law and the UK’s long-standing policy, the federation demanded Khan’s removal from his post.

The Federation argued that the nature of Khan’s visit to Cyprus also violates the UK’s obligations under the 1944 Chicago Convention. They further asserted that Khan not only sabotaged the UK’s long-standing policy on the Cyprus issue but also the resolution of the Cyprus problem based on a bizonal, bicommunal federation with political equality.

In their bilateral meeting, Tatar told Khan that he wishes to pursue a “two-state solution” policy in Cyprus.

During the meeting on Wednesday, Tatar noted that Cyprus is located in a “very critical region,” adding that “Palestine, Gaza, and Israel are only 100 kilometers away from Cyprus.”

Tatar added that Cyprus has also “experienced many difficulties in the past” but “now, thanks to the presence of the Turkish army, we have been living in peace and security on the island for 51 years.”

Khan, for his part, stated that his friends of Cypriot origin living in Manchester had recommended he visit the island, saying, “That is why I am happy to be here.”

Meanwhile, Conservative MP Dame Priti Patel criticized the Labour MP, stating, “This visit undermines the credibility of the United Kingdom as a guarantor power and a neutral mediator in reconciliation negotiations. It also sends an alarming signal to British citizens of Cypriot origin, many of whom were displaced from the very areas Khan visited.”

Arguing that the Labour Party’s foreign policy “is embarrassing Britain,” the former Home Secretary asserted that this visit is “another example of the diplomatic failures” of a potential Labour government.

Patel called for Khan’s resignation and urged the government to reaffirm the UK’s long-standing position on Cyprus. She also called on them to publicly state whether the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office or any other department of His Majesty’s Government had prior knowledge of Khan’s visit and whether any official advice was given before it took place.

The Foreign Office, in a statement to the Cyprus News Agency (CNA), said that the visit was made in Khan’s personal capacity, not as a trade envoy, and that the government was not informed in advance.

A government spokesperson said, “The visit to the north of Cyprus was undertaken in a personal capacity. There is no change in the government’s long-standing position on the so-called ‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus’.”